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Value of the MacKinnon Pick

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Old
04-07-2013, 04:07 PM
  #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Jones View Post
Unless you hear from MacKinnon's agent claiming that his player won't report you keep the pick and chose MacKinnon.
There isn't a team that will pick in the top5 that would go "well, MacKinnon just told us he won't sign, so better trade this pick of ours for scraps and screw the rest of the top5, they're future busts anyway".

The top5 is really close in this draft, even if MacKinnon tells you to bugger off, there's still 4 other quality prospects on the table.

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04-07-2013, 04:33 PM
  #52
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Yeah, like an organization is gonna pass on MacKinnon for a pedestrian offer like that Leaf one. The opportunity to add a player like MacKinnon (assuming he even comes close to the hype) would be huge for a team.

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04-07-2013, 04:38 PM
  #53
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Quantity is not getting anyone a top 3 pick. If your reasoning for the other team is that they can fill out there roster, just delete what you have typed and start over.

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04-07-2013, 04:39 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TylerSVT View Post
Gardiner + Reilly and that would probably get you Mackinnon.
Probably not, maybe if it was Philly or Colorado. Most teams would say no.

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04-07-2013, 04:41 PM
  #55
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Depends, he's probably the 3rd best forward available in this draft so it depends on how both teams see him. 2nd-5th pick probably.

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04-07-2013, 04:43 PM
  #56
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If Im Calgary, Florida Or Colorado


I Take the leafs

1st rounder 2013
Jake Gardiner
Colbourne

For

Nate Mackinnon

Im sure you will get a decent 1st round pick, mid draft..plus some blue chip prospects in Gardiner and Colbourne

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04-07-2013, 04:44 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by couture23 View Post
Probably not, maybe if it was Philly or Colorado. Most teams would say no.
Agreed. Two Defensman wouldn't be an ideal return for most if not all teams.

Even as an Avs fan, I would decline this. Gardiner isn't close to what Leafs fans make his value out to be, same thing with Rielly for that matter.

If the Avs drafted Mackinnon, I would want a much better Defensmane coming back in a deal involving Mack.

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04-07-2013, 04:45 PM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheNuge View Post
If Im Calgary, Florida Or Colorado


I Take the leafs

1st rounder 2013
Jake Gardiner
Colbourne

For

Nate Mackinnon

Im sure you will get a decent 1st round pick, mid draft..plus some blue chip prospects in Gardiner and Colbourne
I dont think that would still get it done. I would bet if Montreal offered Subban and there first the answer would still be no.

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04-07-2013, 04:46 PM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheNuge View Post
If Im Calgary, Florida Or Colorado


I Take the leafs

1st rounder 2013
Jake Gardiner
Colbourne

For

Nate Mackinnon

Im sure you will get a decent 1st round pick, mid draft..plus some blue chip prospects in Gardiner and Colbourne


If I am Colorado I laugh you out of my office. And I kind of am atleast on hfboards. So No way. Maybe if you switch Colbourne with Rielly. Right now your offer is really laughable.
The let us say 16th pick + Gardiner + Colbourne barely gets you in the top 10. If you are lucky you can get down to 8.
There is no way in hell you are getting anywhere close to 5th. Let alone top3 (where Mac will go)

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04-07-2013, 04:46 PM
  #60
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To NYI: MacKinnon

To CGY: Niederreiter + 1st 2013

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04-07-2013, 04:49 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JoemAvs View Post
If I am Colorado I laugh you out of my office. And I kind of am atleast on hfboards. So No way. Maybe if you switch Colbourne with Rielly. Right now you offer is really laughable.
The let us say 16th pick + Gardiner + Colbborne barely gets you in the top 10. If you are lucky you can get down to 8.
There is no way in hell you are getting anywhere close to 5th.
Colbourne has potential of a top 6 center, Gardiner plays top minutes on a very deep leafs blue line..and you get 16th overall for times sake..who potentially could be a Max Domi, Kurtis Lazar type player.



Last edited by Bear of Bad News: 04-07-2013 at 08:42 PM. Reason: Flaming
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04-07-2013, 04:51 PM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheNuge View Post
Colbourne has potential of a top 6 center, Gardiner plays top minutes on a very deep leafs blue line..and you get 16th overall for times sake..who potentially could be a Max Domi, Kurtis Lazar type player.

Gardiner + 16th does not get you into the top5 in this draft. Colbourne really does not matter here. He is merely a throw in when you consider that you are getting MacKinnon.
Believe me. You are way off.


Last edited by Bear of Bad News: 04-07-2013 at 08:42 PM. Reason: flaming / QDP
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04-07-2013, 04:56 PM
  #63
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Islander will not give up Nino De Haan or Strome or anyone else for Mackinnon unless its straight up. They are not packaging a bunch of excellent talent for one guy who is also excellent but just a bit better.

Mac Kinnon is the second coming of Crosby? No.

I think the top three are interchangeable depending on what the team wants.

I personally pick Jones because I think he has the highest ceiling. I always go BPA .

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Old
04-07-2013, 04:56 PM
  #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blankall View Post
Lindros trade is a comparable. Slightly different though. Lindros was a more highly regarded prospect, but it was also a forced situation.
No, the Lindros trade is not comparable because teams thought Lindros was the next
Gretzky, a generational talent.

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Old
04-07-2013, 04:58 PM
  #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JoemAvs View Post
Sorry but I am not the one on drugs. Gardiner + 16th does not get you into the top5 in this draft. Colbourne really does not matter here. He is merely a throw in when you consider that you are getting MacKinnon.
Believe me. You are way off.
Unlike the draft eligible player...Gardiner, Colborne have NHL experience, Gards played 75 games with 30 points on a deep leafs blue line..on a train wreck of a leafs team last year..

So your saying a player that could be a patrick stefan of draft choices..Youd like Crosby Malkin Neal and Letang for....


Done Deal


Crosby, Malkin, Neal, Letang...for Mackinnon!!..

Get off your arm chair, brew a fresh pot of coffee and give your head a shake.

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04-07-2013, 05:04 PM
  #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheNuge View Post
Unlike the draft eligible player...Gardiner, Colborne have NHL experience, Gards played 75 games with 30 points on a deep leafs blue line..on a train wreck of a leafs team last year..

So your saying a player that could be a patrick stefan of draft choices..Youd like Crosby Malkin Neal and Letang for....


Done Deal


Crosby, Malkin, Neal, Letang...for Mackinnon!!..

Get off your arm chair, brew a fresh pot of coffee and give your head a shake.
You make me laugh. Believe it or not. I would trade Mac straight up for Crosby OR Malkin. How about that?

But you are crazily overrating the pieces you are offering.
MacKinnon is a similar prospect to Seguin or Duchene.
Nothing is a given but let us say he has a 60 % chance of turning out as good as they have.

So would I trade a 60 % chance (low estimate. I personally believe that he is a very safe prospect) at a bonafide #1 C for Jake Gardiner who will never be a #1 dman, a prospect like Colbourne
( major questionmarks and probably at best a second line center) and the 16th pick?
Hell no. I rather take my chances on him completely failing.
Any offer from Toronto would have to include Rielly.

Would you have taken Sekera, 14th pick (Girgensons) and Adam for the 5th pick (Rielly) last year?. And the top5 this year is way better than last year and Mac goes probably Top 2.
But how about the deal with Buffalo. Would you like to do this trade right now?

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04-07-2013, 05:05 PM
  #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheNuge View Post
Unlike the draft eligible player...Gardiner, Colborne have NHL experience, Gards played 75 games with 30 points on a deep leafs blue line..on a train wreck of a leafs team last year..

So your saying a player that could be a patrick stefan of draft choices..Youd like Crosby Malkin Neal and Letang for....


Done Deal


Crosby, Malkin, Neal, Letang...for Mackinnon!!..

Get off your arm chair, brew a fresh pot of coffee and give your head a shake.

I'm not a fan of any team that's being mentioned in this thread, but you need to put down the pipe and stop taking hits.

Gardiner+Colborne+Mid to late first round pick is not getting you a top three pick.

You lost any ounce of credibility you thought you may have had when you said Colborne was a a blue-chip prospect..


Essentially you want to trade Gardiner, an AHL player with 12 total NHL games since he was drafted in 2008, and a crapshoot of a first round pick for a potential franchise player (much more potential than the other pieces you mentioned).

It's been shown time after time that elite quality pieces helps you win far more than pretty good quality players do.

Put down the pipe and take a nap.

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04-07-2013, 05:08 PM
  #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheNuge View Post
Colbourne has potential of a top 6 center, Gardiner plays top minutes on a very deep leafs blue line..and you get 16th overall for times sake..who potentially could be a Max Domi, Kurtis Lazar type player.

Colborne is not a blue chip prospect, not even close.

He's a B level prospect with limited upside, who likely ends up a 3C in the NHL, and who's ceiling is that of a decent 2C. Prospects like that are a dime a dozen, every team has 2-3 of those guys.


And Gardiner has been a healthy scratch since being called up by the Leafs more then once. He's hardly playing top line minutes.


That offer really is terrible for a Top 3 pick. Absolutely terrible.


Last edited by Bear of Bad News: 04-07-2013 at 08:42 PM. Reason: QEP
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04-07-2013, 05:08 PM
  #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaffan16 View Post
Probably from NYI it'd be strome++

I'd do Gardiner+Colborne+1st or 2nd
Lol how about starting with Rielly?

That package can net you a 5th overall if you're lucky

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04-07-2013, 05:08 PM
  #70
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HockeyThoughts View Post
Young dynamic top 4 defenseman with top pairing potential and 16th-25th pick in the NHL Draft. Yeah, we'd probably have to add something but I don't see how it wouldn't get us close.



I agree. It isn't ridiculous overpayment. I was more trying to gauge what would be fair value.
Well, it seems that "fair" value and "realistic" value aren't synonymous in these top draft pick proposals. For the Kovalchuk pick, Montreal reportedly offered the 7th overall, the 25th overall, R. Zednik (when he was a young top 6 forward around 20 goals), A. Markov (when he was still a young NHLer with upside) and J. Theodore (when he was still a prospect). It was turned down, of course.

Anyway, it's always different for every draft. Maybe Kovalchuk was regarded as a better prospect than Mackinnon is today, but I think the baseline metric is: what is a potential franchise player -- on an entry level contract -- worth in terms of a quality depth package?

I think most GMs would be very reluctant to trade away the promise of a potential franchise player. You can find quality depth through good later round drafting, UFAs, and shrewd trades. You just don't get many opportunities to draft a potential franchise player. Or, as a GM, I think you don't want to have your team in the situation of drafting at the top very often, just as you have to believe in your abilities to make incremental good moves to surround your very top end gems with quality depth.

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04-07-2013, 05:11 PM
  #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheNuge View Post
Unlike the draft eligible player...Gardiner, Colborne have NHL experience, Gards played 75 games with 30 points on a deep leafs blue line..on a train wreck of a leafs team last year..

So your saying a player that could be a patrick stefan of draft choices..Youd like Crosby Malkin
Neal and Letang for....


Done Deal

Crosby, Malkin, Neal, Letang...for Mackinnon!!..

Get off your arm chair, brew a fresh pot of coffee and give your
head a shake.
What in....


Where did he say Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Neal...? Am I missing something? Or are you just making stuff up.

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Old
04-07-2013, 05:14 PM
  #72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JoemAvs View Post
You make me laugh. Believe it or not. I would trade Mac straight up for Crosby OR Malkin. How about that?

But you are crazily overrating the pieces you are offering.
MacKinnon is a similar prospect to Seguin or Duchene.
Nothing is a given but let us say he has a 60 % chance of turning out as good as they have.

So would I trade a 60 % chance (low estimate I personally believe that he is a very safe prospect) at a bonafide #1 C for Jake Gardiner who will never be a #1 dman, a prospect like Colbourne
( major questionmarks and probably at best a second line center) and the 16th pick?
Hell no. I rather take my chances with him completely failing.
Any offer from Toronto would have to include Rielly.

Would you have taken Sekera, 14th pick (Girgensons) and Adam for the 5th pick (Rielly) last year?. And the top5 this year is way better than last year and Mac goes probably Top 2.
But how about the deal with Buffalo. Would you like to do this trade right now?
Im not hot on Girgensons but..at that spot i would of picked Teravainen over him..

In reality Gardiner >> Sekera...Not very close in value as to what i offered as Gardiner was taken 17th overall in 08..adam was taken 71st??...Gards is also 4 years younger than Sekera.

Gardiner >>>> Sekera
Colborne >= Adam
15 >16 ( basically a wash )

but in actuality the deal is close for fair value..again not a leafs fan..i know how high they are on Rielly

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Old
04-07-2013, 05:16 PM
  #73
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Quantity wouldn't do it. It would have to be something like this years 4-5 pick + 1st or prospect to move to top 3. OR 1 for 1 swap for another young player (Galchenyuk, Yak, Nuge,Landy,Hubs)

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04-07-2013, 05:21 PM
  #74
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Ottawa Stab

OK, i'll take a stab, from what i read from HF's analysis It mentions that you have a lack of depth in the organization on the right wing and a high end offensive defensemen. Also since we are in the same conference, it may not make us the best trading partners,that being said

To Ottawa
Florida's 1st Round pick
Florida's 4th Round pick

To Florida
Ottawa's 1st Round
Cody Ceci or Ottawa's 2014 1st Round pick
Jakob Silfverberg

this is my initial proposal, and by the look of it keep the pick Florida
a

Michlaeck-Spezza-Conacher
Zibanejad-Turris-Mackinnion or Alfie (depending on what happens)

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04-07-2013, 05:35 PM
  #75
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dont think there is very much that the cats would trade it for. Unless we are 1st and dropping to like 3rd. But, I dont see us moving from the top 3 at all. Mackinnon + Huberdeau on a line just would be way too deadly.

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