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What Will Happen With Luongo?

View Poll Results: What Will Happen With Luongo?
Gillis will trade him as part of a "hockey trade" - good return 28 30.11%
Gillis will trade him for scraps 45 48.39%
He'll get bought out 12 12.90%
He'll stay in Vancouver; Schneider will get traded 2 2.15%
He and Schneider will both be in Vancouver next season 6 6.45%
Voters: 93. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
04-07-2013, 06:33 PM
  #26
firstemperor
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Don't know if his contract has a provision where he can't be sent down but I can't see any team taking his contract without any incentive- i.e a 1st rounder, at the very least, going the other way. Either that or the Nucks eat a massive blackhole of a contract.

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Old
04-07-2013, 06:33 PM
  #27
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People still think he could get bought out?

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Old
04-07-2013, 07:53 PM
  #28
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leaning scraps but chose schnider getting traded since i believe van owners won't buy him out.

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Old
04-07-2013, 10:05 PM
  #29
RandV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post


You realize if any of those goalies listed changes teams(except maybe Emery), then that team would end up looking for a goalie for themselves, right?
That's pretty much what I was thinking. We'll have to see what these goalies will get on the open market, but we could end up seeing a goalie shuffle opening up new potential trade partners for Luongo. As everyone know's for the next 5 years Luongo will have a cap hit of $5.33, and an actual salary of $6.7M. Those are bad numbers for teams like Florida or the Islanders but for teams like Detroit or Minnesota the lower cap hit vs salary is a boon. Should be for Toronto too, but they're sticking to treating the contract like a poor team.

Alternatively, if the Coyotes let Smith walk, I doubt they'd want Luongo for the above reason (unless they move to Quebec which doesn't seem likely) but they could probably put a good offer in for Schneider.

Anyways I don't really see the poll option I want, the middle ground between great and poor return. I don't think Gillis is going to get what he's been looking for this past year, but I think it will be more than the Scrivens + two 2nds things. For example a few weeks ago Vancouver and Maple Leaf fans came to a mutual agreement on a Luongo for Grabovski proposal, and that's the kind of value I'm putting my money on.

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04-07-2013, 10:18 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iPunch View Post
He'll be bought out. Nobody wants that contract with the new CBA, and the cap dropping will put more pressure on the Canucks to move it out.
I think we'll see them trade Scheider before that happens. Can you imagine being a GM and asking your owner for a 27 million dollar buy out. That's like a year of profit for the Canucks right out the window. It could happen i'm just skeptical that ownership would be so willing to do something like that, it's not as if he's completely dead weight that needs to be gotten rid of.

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Old
04-07-2013, 10:22 PM
  #31
Pi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ottawa View Post
How does him being honest and saying his contract sucks affect his skill set, ignorant post . He's still a great goalie despite this season, and a very consistent one too.
Where in my post did I say he's a bad goalie?

I've always said that Luongo is a good goalie on a bad contract and that keeps him from being traded in a traditional "hockey" trade.

Doesn't matter if he's Hasek or Roy..if you have a bad contract, you won't get much of a return.

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Old
04-07-2013, 10:43 PM
  #32
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traded for Kadri + Reilly

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Old
04-07-2013, 10:51 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RandV View Post
That's pretty much what I was thinking. We'll have to see what these goalies will get on the open market, but we could end up seeing a goalie shuffle opening up new potential trade partners for Luongo. As everyone know's for the next 5 years Luongo will have a cap hit of $5.33, and an actual salary of $6.7M. Those are bad numbers for teams like Florida or the Islanders but for teams like Detroit or Minnesota the lower cap hit vs salary is a boon. Should be for Toronto too, but they're sticking to treating the contract like a poor team.

Alternatively, if the Coyotes let Smith walk, I doubt they'd want Luongo for the above reason (unless they move to Quebec which doesn't seem likely) but they could probably put a good offer in for Schneider.

Anyways I don't really see the poll option I want, the middle ground between great and poor return. I don't think Gillis is going to get what he's been looking for this past year, but I think it will be more than the Scrivens + two 2nds things. For example a few weeks ago Vancouver and Maple Leaf fans came to a mutual agreement on a Luongo for Grabovski proposal, and that's the kind of value I'm putting my money on.
Toronto's problem is they have 13 players to sign next year and $19.5m to do it with...and the year after Kessel and Phaneuf are UFAs. They can't absorb Luongo's cap hit. It has nothing to do with his actual salary. Toronto doesn't care about that...it doesn't have cash flow problems

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Old
04-07-2013, 11:03 PM
  #34
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I can't see Vancouver taking both goalies into 13/14, and I can't imagine any owner of a team finding that contract more attractive in the summer even if his team does have a need in goal, so scraps. If Gillis decides to eat a healthy chunk of the contract, that could lead to a better return.

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Old
04-07-2013, 11:04 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
I think we'll see them trade Scheider before that happens. Can you imagine being a GM and asking your owner for a 27 million dollar buy out. That's like a year of profit for the Canucks right out the window. It could happen i'm just skeptical that ownership would be so willing to do something like that, it's not as if he's completely dead weight that needs to be gotten rid of.
Two things:

1) It wouldn't be one lump sum payment of 27 million dollars, it would be spread out over 18 years. That is currently less than 1% operating income for a team like the Canucks, and by 2030 it'll be comparable to the league minimum. While I don't think it's realistic for Luongo, there's a reason it's being bandied about for someone like Bryz or DiPietro.

2) For him to be bought out he would have to pass through waivers. That means all 29 teams in the league have to pass on taking him for free (in terms of assets, not salary) which would never happen.

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04-07-2013, 11:09 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pi View Post
Where in my post did I say he's a bad goalie?

I've always said that Luongo is a good goalie on a bad contract and that keeps him from being traded in a traditional "hockey" trade.

Doesn't matter if he's Hasek or Roy..if you have a bad contract, you won't get much of a return.
No you said

Quote:
Probably gets traded for a bag of pucks + some salary retained or bought out.

When a player comes out and says "My contract sucks," you aren't going to get much for him.
You made it seem as if what he said will affect him when it won't...I might have read what you said the wrong way but it just seemed like you were implying that.


Anyways as you said, he is a good goalie and if salary is retained then I think he should get a good return imo, and not a bag of pucks.

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Old
04-07-2013, 11:25 PM
  #37
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Traded for scraps possible good return(rare). Schneider is not moving.

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Old
04-07-2013, 11:27 PM
  #38
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Am i delusional for thinking theres no chance of anything besides an amnesty? Whos gonna take that contract and for leverage gms can say to vancouver your forced to buy him out due to cap complications, ill just sign him when hes amnestied...

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Old
04-07-2013, 11:29 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post


You realize if any of those goalies listed changes teams(except maybe Emery), then that team would end up looking for a goalie for themselves, right?
I think you underestimate Howard. If he remains a UFA in the summer, I think he will attract a lot of interest and at a far more reasonable price than Luongo.

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Old
04-07-2013, 11:29 PM
  #40
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A clear back-up that is young + 2nd or decent (expandable prospect).

Is something that should make a bit of sense.

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04-07-2013, 11:42 PM
  #41
kihei
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StringerBell View Post
2) For him to be bought out he would have to pass through waivers. That means all 29 teams in the league have to pass on taking him for free (in terms of assets, not salary) which would never happen.
So if it did come to this, Vancouver's problem is solved. Somebody claims him on waivers, bye-bye buyout, some other team has the contract. I wonder, though, if for sure one team would bite the bullet. That team then has exclusive rights to Luongo and the contract or it decides to pass with the other teams and bid for Luongo at a far more reasonable price in an open market. I think any team, other than possibly a very, very rich one, would have to think long and hard about those options.


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Old
04-08-2013, 12:24 AM
  #42
mouser
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StringerBell View Post
1) It wouldn't be one lump sum payment of 27 million dollars, it would be spread out over 18 years. That is currently less than 1% operating income for a team like the Canucks, and by 2030 it'll be comparable to the league minimum. While I don't think it's realistic for Luongo, there's a reason it's being bandied about for someone like Bryz or DiPietro.
Nada. The buyout $ is paid out over the remaining years on the contract, based on the contracted salary for that season. The cap hit is spread out over 2x years using the CBA formula if it's an Ordinary Course Buyout, but the cash buyout amount follows the contract each year.

If the Canucks were to buyout Luongo this summer their cash outflow would be:

2013: $4.476m
2014: $4.476m
2015: $4.476m
2016: $4.476m
2017: $4.476m
2018: $2.255m
2019: $1.079m
2020: $0.668m
2021: $0.668m

If you believe in the Forbes Business of Hockey estimates that's more like 15% of Vancouver's current Operating Income for the next five years. And don't forget that the most important figure Net Income is much less than Operating Income after accounting for the other expenses. We could easily be talking 30-50% of Vancouver's net profits going bye-bye with a Luongo buyout.

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04-08-2013, 01:10 AM
  #43
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More than scraps, but still not great value.

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04-08-2013, 01:23 AM
  #44
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Originally Posted by mouser View Post
Nada. The buyout $ is paid out over the remaining years on the contract, based on the contracted salary for that season. The cap hit is spread out over 2x years using the CBA formula if it's an Ordinary Course Buyout, but the cash buyout amount follows the contract each year.

If the Canucks were to buyout Luongo this summer their cash outflow would be:

2013: $4.476m
2014: $4.476m
2015: $4.476m
2016: $4.476m
2017: $4.476m
2018: $2.255m
2019: $1.079m
2020: $0.668m
2021: $0.668m

If you believe in the Forbes Business of Hockey estimates that's more like 15% of Vancouver's current Operating Income for the next five years. And don't forget that the most important figure Net Income is much less than Operating Income after accounting for the other expenses. We could easily be talking 30-50% of Vancouver's net profits going bye-bye with a Luongo buyout.
Hah. Okay I was totally off on the details, thanks for the clarification. Either way, it's not a year of profit right out the window.

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04-08-2013, 02:29 AM
  #45
Eskimo44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StringerBell View Post
Two things:

1) It wouldn't be one lump sum payment of 27 million dollars, it would be spread out over 18 years. That is currently less than 1% operating income for a team like the Canucks, and by 2030 it'll be comparable to the league minimum. While I don't think it's realistic for Luongo, there's a reason it's being bandied about for someone like Bryz or DiPietro.

2) For him to be bought out he would have to pass through waivers. That means all 29 teams in the league have to pass on taking him for free (in terms of assets, not salary) which would never happen.
Never said it was going to be a lump sum, but with the Canucks being a cap team that's still 27 extra million dollars, that's real money and it doesn't become less just because it's spread out. Point number 2 is a good one but nothing in my comment even deals with what would happen if he was waived as i think the chances of it happening are pretty much zilch, so it's hardly a comment that should be directed towards me.

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04-08-2013, 02:41 AM
  #46
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Originally Posted by StringerBell View Post
Hah. Okay I was totally off on the details, thanks for the clarification. Either way, it's not a year of profit right out the window.
According to Forbes from what i gather they made 30.4 million dollars last year "before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization". So i'd say 27 million is very close to a season of profit if not more. To go even further it's actually even more than a season of profit if you don't factor in home playoff games (which are worth something around 3 million each iirc) and just go off guarenteed revenue from the regular season. If you minus the 3 home playoff games of profit from last year then that 30 million dollar figure drops to 21 million. I really don't think i was being crazy in what i was saying.

http://www.forbes.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/


Last edited by Eskimo44: 04-08-2013 at 03:04 AM.
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Old
04-08-2013, 07:57 AM
  #47
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He'll get traded at the draft for Toronto's 1st, James Reimer and Jake Gardiner.

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Old
04-08-2013, 08:19 AM
  #48
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There should be the option of:

"Gillis will give another team a pick/prospect to take on Luongo". Aka not just scraps, but negative value. Or Gillis will trade Luongo with some salary retained for scraps.

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04-08-2013, 08:21 AM
  #49
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Trade for scraps, considering what was the asking price and what Canucks fans wanted last summer and even earlier this year.

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04-08-2013, 08:25 AM
  #50
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Have a funny felling the Maple Leafs end up trading a mid-level pick or two and some salary to the Canucks for him this summer. At some point Gillis has to move him, I don't see the Vancouver org buying that contract out.
Before the season started, maybe. Now? I can't see Nonis budging with how well Reimer has played. Reimer seems to get lost in all of this, the guys a number one. Nonis asked for Gillis to retain salary, which he wouldn't do. I don't see that changing. Now is not a good time to try and deal a goalie of any caliber and it doesn't become much better with free agency right around the corner and with the cap going down...it's just such a god awful contract.

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