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Old
04-07-2013, 11:00 PM
  #526
VaporTrail
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we are just so unlucky as a city....

Buffaluck !

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04-07-2013, 11:59 PM
  #527
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Can we not do ANYTHING right???

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04-08-2013, 12:06 AM
  #528
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chainshot View Post
We're going to have to hope for some pingpong ball magic.
What are the chances of getting a top 3 pick if you finish, say, 21st in the league? Because it looks like that's where we're headed.

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04-08-2013, 12:10 AM
  #529
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fire Me View Post
What are the chances of getting a top 3 pick if you finish, say, 21st in the league? Because it looks like that's where we're headed.
2.1%.

Quote:
The likelihood of each team gaining the right to the first pick is as follows:

Team 1 25.0%

Team 2 18.8%

Team 3 14.2%

Team 4 10.7%

Team 5 8.1%

Team 6 6.2%

Team 7 4.7%

Team 8 3.6%

Team 9 2.7%

Team 10 2.1%

Team 11 1.5%

Team 12 1.1%

Team 13 0.8%

Team 14 0.5%
http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=658503

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04-08-2013, 12:40 AM
  #530
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Hooray for the never ending cycle of mediocrity.

At this point you gotta hope the Sabres get lucky and have a pick like Giroux, Getzlaf, Perry etc. A mid-round pick who ends up being a stud. This franchise doesn't have that kind of luck though.


Last edited by sabresfan129103: 04-08-2013 at 12:46 AM.
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04-08-2013, 12:59 AM
  #531
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Updated Outlook


As of 4/07/2013 at 11:59 PM

As of right now, we sit at 38 points with 11 Regulation/OT wins in 39 games. 8th Place NYI has/will have 42 points with 16 Regulation/OT wins in 39 games. At the moment, according to SCS, we have a 7.1% chance of making the playoffs. Accuscore has us at a 4.8% chance of making it. This week's games are the key to how we finish, if we're sellers/buyers, and if we see any changes in GM/Coach in the off-season. Our next games are:


4/05: Ottawa - Result = W
4/07: New Jersey - Result = W(SO)
4/09: @Winnipeg
4/11: Montreal
4/13: Philadelphia
4/14: Tampa


~Will remove this section once eliminated from playoff contention. And add in a draft special~

---------------------
Rest Of Season Situation
  • 6 Home Games
  • 3 Away Games
  • 3 Games against the SE, 4 games against the Atlantic, 2 games against the NE

Rolston Record

Since Rolston has taken over, the Sabres have played 22 games and have gone 10-7-5, and 6-2-2 in the last 10. So if that ratio we're to carry over into the final 9 games and the Sabres were to go 5-2-2, that would mean the Sabres would finish with 50 points and most likely finish 10th in the Conference (40% Chance, or a 31% chance to finish 9th) (), which would probably be a pick in the 9~12 range for 10th place in the Conference

Accuscore

Accuscore has us finishing 4-4-1, for a record of 20-21-7, which is 47 points, which is a 40% chance of 12th, or a 60% chance of 12th or worse.

Sabres Season

That Sabres have a current win percentage of .444 of Home Games, and a Point Percentage of .611. So of the remaining 6 home games, if the trend continues, the Sabres are looking at a record of 3-2-1.
Their away win percentage is .381 and a point percentage of .524. Of the remaining 3 away games, the trend would show a record of 1-1-1.
That would equal out to a record of 4-3-2, or 48 points. Missing the Playoffs with a 40% chance of finishing 11th in Conference, and a 28% chance of finishing 13th.

The record predictions from Accuscore, Rolston's coaching, and the Sabres entire season are nearly identical. All three show a prediction within 1~3 point(s) of each other.

-----------

[I]***Of Note, Ruff went 6-10-1 before getting fired. So the Sabres have improved their winning percentage by .102 (from .353 to .455),, roughly 2 games better than they were trending on the year. However, their point percentage has increased 66%, from .412 to .682 under Rolston.***


What the above shows is that while Ruff and Rolston have a nearly identical winning percentage, the difference is that almost half of Rolston's losses have come in OT or SO. Ruff gained 13 of a possible 34 points, or .412%, whereas Rolston has gained 26 of a possible 44 points, or .591%.

Fun "What If Math"
  • Had Ruff continued coaching and stayed with his pace, the Sabres would have 32 points,
    thus being in tied for 3rd last in the League.

  • Had Rolston coached from the start and stayed with his pace, the Sabres would have about 46 points,
    that would have them in playoff position, tied for 5th in the East.
------------------

Tank
If we were to play at around .250 pace, say 2-6-1, SCS has us at a slightly better than 64% chance of finishing 14th or worse in conference, which would most likely equate to a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

Playoffs
In order to make the playoffs, most believe it would take around 52 points. For the Sabres to do that, they would need to win at least 6, preferably 7/8 of their final 9 games. 52 points would mean a 56.4% chance, 53 a 78.2% chance, and 54 a 92.9% chance. Getting to that 52 points would mean:
  • Winning 7 of the 9 games which is .750 hockey
  • Getting about 14 out of 18 points available
  • Losing ONLY 2 or less games
Irrelevancy (9th/12th)
If we were to go on a run and finish between 47-51 points, there is about a 80% to 99% chance that we would finish between 9th and 12th. 47-51 points would be playing at about .550 hockey the rest of the way through. Which would mean about 4~6 wins in our final 9.

*If we finished with 51 points, there is about a 25% chance we could sneak into the 8th seed*

------------------

Current Predicted Standings

Right now, the predicted final standings and draft order (barring lottery results) would be:
as of 4/02/2013 @ 10:30 PM EST
  1. Colorado (29.1)
  2. Florida (28.8)
  3. Calgary (28.3)
  4. Carolina (24.7)
  5. Tampa (23.2)
  6. Nashville (23.2)
  7. Buffalo (22.6)
  8. Columbus (22.1)
  9. Philadelphia (21.8)
  10. Dallas (20.5)
  11. New Jersey (20.4)
  12. Edmonton (19.5)
  13. Phoenix (18.4)
  14. Winnipeg (18.1)



(The number in brackets is the average finish after running a lot of simulations)

Meaning the Sabres would have a 4.7% shot at winning the lottery

Carolina and Dallas are in major tail spins, and we're are screwing up by winning games. At this rate, I think it's almost a certainty that they will pass the Sabres and we'll go from possibly the 4th pick, to the 8th or 9th.
--------------------

My Prediction

These pointless wins are going to kill us. We went from almost certainty of at least a top 5 pick, to now most likely picking around 8~10. With how they've been over performing and a majority of the games at home, I hate to say it but I think we finish the final 9 games 4-3-2, so a 68% chance of finishing 11th or 12th, so a pick between 7-10.

The difference between 43, 45 ,and 47 points is the difference between 66%, 25%, and 2% shot of a top 3 pick, and a 97%, 75%, and 25% shot at a top 5 pick.

------------------------
In easy to understand terms:

Sabres at 44 or less points(3 wins or less): 47% or Better chance of top 3 pick
Sabres at 45-51 points(Between 3 ~ 6 wins): *No playoffs, picking between 4-14
Sabres at 52 or greater points: *50% chance of playoffs

-------------------------


Last edited by sjci: 04-08-2013 at 01:10 AM.
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Old
04-08-2013, 01:00 AM
  #532
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A couple things have changed in the data.
  • 52 points is only a slightly better than 50% chance of making the playoffs. So even if the Sabres go on an improbably run, of 7 out of 9 wins, they'd still only have a coin flip chance of making it in.

  • A top 3 pick is a virtual lock to not happen now. The Sabres would need to win only 1, maybe 2 games at most the rest of the year, and that snot happening unless Miller gets hurt, even then, we'd probably somehow at least win 3.

  • With losing out on a top 3 pick and winning games of late, the Sabres have also greatly increased their odds of finishing between 9th and 12th. At best, we're looking at a pick around 6 now. At worst, we'll be stuck around pick 12.

  • Also, the winning has greatly reduced our shot at winning the lottery. With tonight's win alone, we've reduced our chance by greater than 50%. (from 10.4% to 4.7%)

  • As mentioned before, each win now lowers the Sabre potential draft pick by 1 to 2 spots, and each loss improves the position by 1-2 spots. Right now, we are picking 8th.
    • If we finish about .600 (5-3-1) (49 points), we're most likely picking 9~12
    • If we finish about .500 (4-4-1) (47 points), we're most likely picking 7~9.
    • If we finish about .400 (3-5-1) (45 points), we're most likely picking 5~7

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04-08-2013, 01:09 AM
  #533
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The thing is, after about the mid point of this season I really thought this team was bad enough to get a top 5 pick. For once I thought they were not going to make the standard heroic charge to 10th, but it's happening again. It's my worst ****ing nightmare. Unbelievable, absolutely unbe-****ing-leavable.

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04-08-2013, 01:27 AM
  #534
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjci View Post
Current Predicted Standings

Right now, the predicted final standings and draft order (barring lottery results) would be:
as of 4/02/2013 @ 10:30 PM EST
  1. Colorado (29.1)
  2. Florida (28.8)
  3. Calgary (28.3)
  4. Carolina (24.7)
  5. Tampa (23.2)
  6. Nashville (23.2)
  7. Buffalo (22.6)
  8. Columbus (22.1)
  9. Philadelphia (21.8)
  10. Dallas (20.5)
  11. New Jersey (20.4)
  12. Edmonton (19.5)
  13. Phoenix (18.4)
  14. Winnipeg (18.1)



(The number in brackets is the average finish after running a lot of simulations)

Meaning the Sabres would have a 4.7% shot at winning the lottery
Also, what that shows is that Colorado, Calgary, and Florida, are almost for sure locks to be the bottom 3 teams. Carolina, is also pulling away a little bit and nearing a lock to be a top 4. Right now the difference between 5th and 9th is only 1.4, so what that means is that it is still highly volatile between those picks.

There aren't many games that will impact the tank much tomorrow:
  1. Calgary @ Colorado: No big impact on the 4-14 range but the game may make it a little clearer at the top

  2. Phoenix @ Vancouver: Minimal impact on lottery (.1 for most teams)

  3. Carolina @ Boston: Only a small impact (.1 for most) a Carolina loss would almost solidify a top 5 pick for them.

  4. Edmonton @ Anaheim: Again, mostly a small impact on the lottery (.1) for other teams

  5. NY Rangers @ Toronto: No impact on the lottery, but a small (.5 to -.5) impact on the Sabres Playoff "chance"

The bolded teams are who you want to win tomorrow to help the tank, so it looks like we're hoping for all the away teams to sweep tomorrow. If everything went the Sabres way, their draft stock would increase .3 to 22.9

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04-08-2013, 01:41 AM
  #535
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjci View Post
Also, what that shows is that Colorado, Calgary, and Florida, are almost for sure locks to be the bottom 3 teams. Carolina, is also pulling away a little bit and nearing a lock to be a top 4. Right now the difference between 5th and 9th is only 1.4, so what that means is that it is still highly volatile between those picks.

There aren't many games that will impact the tank much tomorrow:
  1. Calgary @ Colorado: No big impact on the 4-14 range but the game may make it a little clearer at the top

  2. Phoenix @ Vancouver: Minimal impact on lottery (.1 for most teams)

  3. Carolina @ Boston: Only a small impact (.1 for most) a Carolina loss would almost solidify a top 5 pick for them.

  4. Edmonton @ Anaheim: Again, mostly a small impact on the lottery (.1) for other teams

  5. NY Rangers @ Toronto: No impact on the lottery, but a small (.5 to -.5) impact on the Sabres Playoff "chance"

The bolded teams are who you want to win tomorrow to help the tank, so it looks like we're hoping for all the away teams to sweep tomorrow. If everything went the Sabres way, their draft stock would increase .3 to 22.9
These posts are underrated. Very helpful. You're on top of this ****... You're on your game!

Sjci= $h*t Just Comes Instinctively?

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04-08-2013, 02:44 AM
  #536
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Gotta hope Minnesota falls apart and gives us another .5% chance or so at the big win.

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04-08-2013, 08:02 AM
  #537
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I'm so depressed. So depressed.

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04-08-2013, 08:13 AM
  #538
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Sjci, thanks for putting this stuff together. Your synthesizing is very helpful.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sabresfan129103 View Post
The thing is, after about the mid point of this season I really thought this team was bad enough to get a top 5 pick. For once I thought they were not going to make the standard heroic charge to 10th, but it's happening again. It's my worst ****ing nightmare. Unbelievable, absolutely unbe-****ing-leavable.
Sadly, I figured this was bound to happen. Miller had another red-hot stretch in him (.945 over his last four starts) and with the all the home games down the stretch (10 of our final 14 in Buffalo), I figured we'd be banking loser points and shootout wins.

That notwithstanding, I was hoping we could stay in the top-6, but Carolina's epic tank combined with Nashville and Tampa spinning their wheels have really thrown a fly in the ointment. At this point, I'm fully expecting Lehtonen to get one of his patented groin injuries and Dallas to shut him down, then they'll go sinking past us, as well.

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04-08-2013, 08:37 AM
  #539
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And it all started with beating the Penguins on their historic run. So dumb.

Alright well you could say it started with Rolston taking over, but in my head it started with the Pens game.

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04-08-2013, 08:49 AM
  #540
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#$!%@

Hate it. Have to watch miserable hockey all year. The only salve is the possibility of getting a franchise player. Instead we will get the annual string of meaningless wins at the end of the season and pick in the 12-15th range.

Very depressing.

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04-08-2013, 08:58 AM
  #541
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Worst of all possible outcomes. Play yourself out of contention early, and then reel off enough meaningless wins late to sink your draft position from an elite top 3 player, down to the 10-12 range.

If you're going to suck, at least suck properly so that you get something out of it in the end.

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04-08-2013, 09:27 AM
  #542
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Hey. HEY! This is the tank thread. It's not the "come here to insult the whole fanbase because a portion of it wants to tank" thread.

Got it? Thanks.

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04-08-2013, 09:46 AM
  #543
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Here's another sobering thought... next year may be a full 82 games of this crap with a similar outcome with the roster as constructed. It's possible some of these guys will improve, some will remain static or slip a bit. They need studs to build around and the 7-10 area is where duds flourish.

Come on, pingpong balls!

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04-08-2013, 10:45 AM
  #544
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chainshot View Post
Here's another sobering thought... next year may be a full 82 games of this crap with a similar outcome with the roster as constructed. It's possible some of these guys will improve, some will remain static or slip a bit. They need studs to build around and the 7-10 area is where duds flourish.

Come on, pingpong balls!
If you combine the talent they've ditched so far with the talent they may potentially ditch during the summer, I think it could be a lottery team next year.

Unfortunately, streaks over the course of a 48 game season end up meaning a lot more than over the course of 82 games.

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04-08-2013, 10:52 AM
  #545
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A regulation loss to Tampa, Philly, Pittsburgh and Boston would go along way in getting us a pick inside the top 7.

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04-08-2013, 10:57 AM
  #546
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jfb392 View Post
If you combine the talent they've ditched so far with the talent they may potentially ditch during the summer, I think it could be a lottery team next year.

Unfortunately, streaks over the course of a 48 game season end up meaning a lot more than over the course of 82 games.
It seems likely at this point. They haven't hit bottom yet.

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04-08-2013, 10:58 AM
  #547
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chainshot View Post
Here's another sobering thought... next year may be a full 82 games of this crap with a similar outcome with the roster as constructed. It's possible some of these guys will improve, some will remain static or slip a bit. They need studs to build around and the 7-10 area is where duds flourish.

Come on, pingpong balls!
Be Bad for Ekblad!

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04-08-2013, 11:03 AM
  #548
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Alright. Lose out. Come on. Play hard and let the other team win at the end if there's a lead. Be shameless. Let's go Buffalo!

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04-08-2013, 11:16 AM
  #549
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STOP WINNIN FOR MACKINNON!!!!!

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04-08-2013, 11:32 AM
  #550
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It may seem depressing now, but all is not lost yet. This week, particularly the weekend, will be the determining factor. If we could go 1-3 or 1-2-1 in our next 4, we'll still have a shot at a top 6 pick.

4/09 @ Winnipeg
4/11 Vs Montreal
4/13 Vs Philadelphia
4/14 Vs Tampa

If we do bad in those four, our next 3 after are very losable games (4/17 @Boston, 4/19 Vs Rangers, 4/20 @Pitt)

All is not lost yet

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