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2012-13 Magic Number/Elimination Thread (5th Anniversary Edition!)

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Old
04-07-2013, 10:59 PM
  #101
ZARTONK
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This site has Montreal clinched for the playoffs.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

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04-07-2013, 11:06 PM
  #102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZARTONK View Post
This site has Montreal clinched for the playoffs.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
His numbers are for hard clinches and doesn't take into account the matchups of teams playing each other. Montreal is already in because the teams below them will play each other and cannibalize one another which that site takes into account since it is based on simulations.

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Old
04-07-2013, 11:13 PM
  #103
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZARTONK View Post
This site has Montreal clinched for the playoffs.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
nope, that's weighted.

try http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL2.html, which is unweighted, then go to http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E...Montreal2.html and make sure there were sufficient simulations (i'd say 500k+) with montreal gaining zero points to prove clinching.

or just wait for mayorbee to call it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nyiguy21 View Post
His numbers are for hard clinches and doesn't take into account the matchups of teams playing each other. Montreal is already in because the teams below them will play each other and cannibalize one another which that site takes into account since it is based on simulations.
nope. Look at my pittsburgh proof on the last page as an example. 725 instances of montreal getting zero points is not enough to show all the possible scenarios. I'm too lazy to do one for montreal now, but they have not clinched, there are numerous scenarios that exist for them to still miss. Obviously they will clinch eventually, but not yet.

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Old
04-07-2013, 11:26 PM
  #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZARTONK View Post
This site has Montreal clinched for the playoffs.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
This site doesn't take all mathematical possiblities into account. More like they talk about likeliness of each possibility happening.

You'll see Mayor Bee and NHL having Montreal claiming the playoffs bert at the same time.

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Old
04-07-2013, 11:29 PM
  #105
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Pardon my ignorance everyone. :S

I got the idea, Mayor Bee's the man, so just wait for him to announce it!

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Old
04-08-2013, 01:24 AM
  #106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
Updated through 4/7/2013

Chicago and Pittsburgh have both clinched playoff spots.

New Jersey has been eliminated from the Atlantic Division race.

Detroit has been eliminated from the Central Division race.

For tomorrow...

Colorado can be eliminated from the Northwest Division race with a regulation loss against Calgary OR with a Vancouver win against Phoenix OR with an OT/SO loss against Calgary AND a Vancouver OT/SO loss against Phoenix
Not sure if my math is correct or not. But I believe the Ducks can clinch a playoff spot tomorrow. With a win against Edmonton and a regulation or OT/SO loss to PHX against VAN. Am I correct?


Last edited by duckhead32686: 04-08-2013 at 01:31 AM.
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Old
04-08-2013, 01:37 AM
  #107
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duckhead32686 View Post
Not sure if my math is correct or not. But I believe the Ducks can clinch a playoff spot tomorrow. With a win against Edmonton and a regulation or OT/SO loss to PHX against VAN. Am I correct?
dallas can get to 59 points and have more ROW than anaheim.

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Old
04-08-2013, 01:39 AM
  #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 8inblack View Post
dallas can get to 59 points and have more ROW than anaheim.
Ah right. Forgot about Dallas. My mistake.

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Old
04-08-2013, 01:39 AM
  #109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duckhead32686 View Post
Not sure if my math is correct or not. But I believe the Ducks can clinch a playoff spot tomorrow. With a win against Edmonton and a regulation or OT/SO loss to PHX against VAN. Am I correct?
Ducks can clinch, but only with a win against Edmonton, a loss of any kind for Dallas (this game is on Tuesday my bad) and a loss in regulation for Phoenix.

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Old
04-08-2013, 08:20 AM
  #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZARTONK View Post
Pardon my ignorance everyone. :S

I got the idea, Mayor Bee's the man, so just wait for him to announce it!
All we need is to win one game and have NJ lose one game, so it can happen as early as Wednesday of this week.

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Old
04-08-2013, 07:25 PM
  #111
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Question, does the GD tiebreaker take into account SO wins/losses or is it pure GD?

I made a thread for the Devils so want to include that information.

God, the second tiebreaker really sucks this year.. extra annoying for someone with a thread like this.

EDIT: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1399235

That's the link for my thread. It's Devils-specific so it includes magic/elimination number for each team relative to the Devils and all tiebreaker information as well. If anyone is looking to make a similar thread for your team, feel free to use my format or whatever. Open to feedback as well. I think I have everything relevant though.

EDIT2: Factoring in remaining schedule, tonight's Rangers regulation loss gives the Devils back control over their playoff destiny (including the ROW tiebreaker as well). No magic number really, but Devils can win out in ROW and make it no matter what the Rangers do. (And Rangers can do the same).


Last edited by DevilChuk*: 04-08-2013 at 09:01 PM.
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Old
04-08-2013, 10:19 PM
  #112
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If I understand this correctly, a Bruins win over the Devils in regulation on Wednesday would reduce their magic number to 1?

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04-08-2013, 10:29 PM
  #113
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubber Biscuit View Post
If I understand this correctly, a Bruins win over the Devils in regulation on Wednesday would reduce their magic number to 1?
My calculations have it bringing it down to.. the ROW tiebreaker.

A win tomorrow would guarantee the Bruins as many points as the Devils can possibly get.. but the Devils could still technically pass if they win out all in ROW and Bruins lose out all in ROW because the Devils would then have the ROW tiebreaker.

A ROW win Wednesday would lead to the Bruins clinching a playoff spot with ANY Devils non-regulation win or ANY Boston win.

EDIT: I'm wrong, see below for correction. I was only thinking from a Devils perspective.


Last edited by DevilChuk*: 04-08-2013 at 11:00 PM.
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Old
04-08-2013, 10:42 PM
  #114
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DevilChuk View Post
My calculations have it bringing it down to.. the ROW tiebreaker.

A win tomorrow would guarantee the Bruins as many points as the Devils can possibly get.. but the Devils could still technically pass if they win out all in ROW and Bruins lose out all in ROW because the Devils would then have the ROW tiebreaker.

A ROW win Wednesday would lead to the Bruins clinching a playoff spot with ANY Devils non-regulation win or ANY Boston win.
This is slightly incorrect.

If the Bruins beat the Devils Wednesday then the DEvils would drop to the same maxiumum points the both the Jets and the Sabres. Thus all 3 of them would have to lose a point for the magic number to drop again(or the Bruins win), and winning the ROW tiebreaker over the devils in that case will not clinch as you could still tie both the Sabres and the Jets

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Old
04-08-2013, 10:57 PM
  #115
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canada4Gold View Post
This is slightly incorrect.

If the Bruins beat the Devils Wednesday then the DEvils would drop to the same maxiumum points the both the Jets and the Sabres. Thus all 3 of them would have to lose a point for the magic number to drop again(or the Bruins win), and winning the ROW tiebreaker over the devils in that case will not clinch as you could still tie both the Sabres and the Jets
My bad.. I spent all night making the Devils thread and was only speaking from the Devils POV.

Any win Wednesday would guarantee Boston finishes ahead of Buffalo since Boston would have 56 (Buffalo's max) and 21 ROW already whereas Buffalo can only hit 20 ROW.

They would need one point or one Jets lost point (and one Devils lost point/ROW) to officially clinch though since the Jets are still in the ROW race.

EDIT: Actually, this is not even taking the Flyers into account who can finish with 57 points. So Boston would need either:
A) Any win Wednesday + one more point + one Flyers lost point
B) Any win Wednesday + one Jets lost point + two Flyers lost points

I think thats right now.

Any win Wednesday would put Boston at 56. Devils can hit 56 still but are one ROW or one lost point from being eliminated. Jets would be able to hit 56 as well and they are still in the ROW hunt so Boston needs one more point (scenario A) or one lost Jets point (Scenario B) to get ahead of them officially. Then Flyers can get to 57 still.. so need another 2 gained/lost points. Either Boston gets one more point and Flyers lose one point (Scenario A) or Flyers lose both points (Scenario B).

EDIT2: Any win Wednesday would give Boston the 2nd tiebreaker over the Devils so actually, any win Wednesday would guarantee the Bruins finish ahead of the Devils. They can only tie in points and in ROW, so the H2H would give it to the Bruins. Fixed above.


Last edited by DevilChuk*: 04-08-2013 at 11:09 PM.
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Old
04-08-2013, 11:46 PM
  #116
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Updated through 4/8/2013

Colorado and Phoenix have both been eliminated from their respective division races

For tomorrow....
Pittsburgh can clinch the Atlantic Division with a win against Carolina. Pittsburgh would also clinch at least the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference in this scenario.

Buffalo can be eliminated from the Northeast Division race with a loss of any type against Winnipeg OR with a Montreal win or OT/SO loss against Washington.

Anaheim can clinch a playoff spot with a loss of any type by Dallas against Los Angeles.

Dallas can be eliminated from the Pacific Division race with a loss of any type against Los Angeles.

Several more races can be pushed to the brink, but not quite clinch or eliminate...those may come in the next couple of days though.

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Old
04-09-2013, 02:13 PM
  #117
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so after last nights win? what is it at do we need 2 more wins? to clinch?

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Old
04-09-2013, 02:17 PM
  #118
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leafyseven View Post
so after last nights win? what is it at do we need 2 more wins? to clinch?
assuming you mean toronto, they need a combination of 11 points earned by the leafs or lost by 9th place.

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Old
04-09-2013, 02:42 PM
  #119
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yes i do so how many do devils need to lose? for us to clinch?

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Old
04-09-2013, 02:52 PM
  #120
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Originally Posted by leafyseven View Post
yes i do so how many do devils need to lose? for us to clinch?
any combination of the leafs gaining and the devils losing 11 points. EG leafs go 3-0-0 and the devils go 0-2-1, the devils can no longer pass the leafs.

but it's not just the devils. Say the devils lose their next couple of games and Winnipeg wins, then Winnipeg is the new team to beat.

in all likelihood, montreal and boston should clinch this weekend or early next week, and the leafs should clinch sometime around next weekend.

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04-09-2013, 03:10 PM
  #121
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oh ok thanks so what you're saying devils lose 11? and we are in?

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Old
04-09-2013, 03:15 PM
  #122
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Originally Posted by leafyseven View Post
yes i do so how many do devils need to lose? for us to clinch?
This is hard clinch thread. It means that team should be mathematically ureacheable for other teams to pass no matter how likely or unlikely it is. At this point it would take 4 teams to go at least .500+ and Leafs to lose virtually all games for them to slide to 9th.
This thread also does not count tiebreakers. Devils for example can only tie Leafs ROW and only can tie head-to-head record and they very-very unlikely to bit Leafs on goal differential, so it's pretty safe to say that Leafs number is 10, not 11, but since possibility still exists that Devils tie both ROW and Head-to-Head and win on goals differential, it's shown as 11.

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Old
04-09-2013, 08:38 PM
  #123
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Pens are Atalantic division champs and no worse than the #2 seed

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Old
04-09-2013, 10:11 PM
  #124
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Updated through games of 4/9/2013

From today...

Pittsburgh has clinched the Atlantic Division championship, and at least the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference.

Buffalo has been eliminated from the Northeast Division race.

For tomorrow...

Anaheim can clinch a playoff spot with a win or OT/SO loss against Colorado


Last edited by Mayor Bee: 04-10-2013 at 09:46 AM.
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Old
04-09-2013, 10:25 PM
  #125
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
Updated through games of 4/9/2013

From today...

Pittsburgh has clinched the Atlantic Division championship, and at least the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference.

Buffalo has been eliminated from the Northeast Division race.

For tomorrow...

Boston can clinch a playoff spot with a regulation win over New Jersey

Anaheim can clinch a playoff spot with a win or OT/SO loss against Colorado
Boston doesn't clinch tomorrow, no matter what happens.

With a win, Boston would have 56 points.
Both Jets and Devils can still hit 56.

Devils- even if the win is not in regulation, the Bruins would win the season series, so they'd still win the tiebreaker if ROW end up being equal. Without winning tomorrow, the Devils would only be able to tie the Bruins in ROW (even if the Bruins don't win in regulation) so any win eliminates the Devils from possibly passing the Bruins.

Jets- Can still hit 56 and pass the Bruins in ROW, so the Bruins won't clinch until the Jets either lose a point or the Bruins gain another.

Basically, the Bruins need:
A) Any win tomorrow AND any other point OR any Winnipeg lost point
B) Any three points including EITHER any one ROW OR any one Devils non-ROW
C) Any two points AND any Winnipeg lost point AND EITHER any one ROW OR any one Devils non-ROW


Last edited by DevilChuk*: 04-09-2013 at 10:32 PM.
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