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Old
04-08-2013, 05:44 AM
  #51
bacon25
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I would be fine with OTL for the rest of the year. I know I know don't panic but the Sens schedule is harder than it looks if you take account of how those teams are currently playing, esp. Washington.

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04-08-2013, 07:10 AM
  #52
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Funny how just a single game ago I posted about our playoffs not seeming to be 96% like the stats sites said...only responses were ...."dude,bro you expect those teams to all have amazing records and pass us, Sens are in"....

...now everyone is crapping their pants, it has swung the other way....

...cannot people actually look at what needs to happen for them to miss to get a slightly clearer understanding of how this last stretch looks. The Sens are not out of it by any means, nor are they are lock....so little of actual thought in posts, so reactionary.

After the weekend, the Sens are actually closer to the playoffs because of the Devils 0-1-1 record, which really hurt their chances.

For Senators to miss it would take....

Sens go 5-5.....Devils need to finish 7-1-1 or Jets 7-1-0.
Sens go 4-6......Devils need to finish 6-2-1 or Jets 6-2-0.
Sens go 3-7.....Devils need to finish 5-3-1 or Jets 5-2-1.
Sens go 2-8....Devils need to finish 4-4-1 or Jets 4-3-1.

So before the weekend I thought 5 wins gives the Sens a spot, looking at it now 4 wins could easily do it...chances actually look a little better. But again since our 96% playoff spot one game ago, it looks even less like 96%, but still very doable.

I thought the last game was huge, and they lost...meaning the next one, Tampa is absolutely must win....actually all three next ones are massive tilts (Tampa, Philly...then Devils) ...these are all supposed winnable games, which they better get some points because after that, while playing at home, the teams are much tougher.

The Devils game is going to be huge, as much as you are cheering for a Sens win in the next two, everyone should cheer for a Boston win of the Devils (should not be hard, seeing as so many of you all are online bff's with them )

Enough with the We are in!!!...Oh no we are out!!!....plenty of hockey left....almost 20% of the season...lots can happen....could finish anywhere from 5-10th.


Last edited by take a peek: 04-08-2013 at 07:28 AM.
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Old
04-08-2013, 08:03 AM
  #53
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We will finish 6th.
Support this statement!

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04-08-2013, 08:18 AM
  #54
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Maybe desperation mode will fire up the boys to play more inspired. This team has been playing with house money and no pressure for a while. Time to face some real adversity.

I remember reading the thread predicting how many wins we would get on this road trip and while I didn't post, I thought to myself, given how average we are on the road and the brutal performance put forth against Toronto, we would be lucky to win 2 games on it.

I have faith in the boys. They need to dig deep here and get a couple of W's before heading back home.

Maybe Bish will roll over for us tomorrow night

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04-08-2013, 08:23 AM
  #55
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What I find most surprising is how some people seemingly expected the team to suddenly be better on the road

Without our star players we suck on the road: if we can't get the matchup we want we are awful

I'm not expecting much from the road trip, 2 wins at most.

Missing the playoffs is unlikely but every dud-of-a-game hurts that much more: even though there was plenty wrong in the game against Florida the team played much better than against Buffalo so that's a positive.

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04-08-2013, 08:28 AM
  #56
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Should of traded Elliott for Clemmensen.

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04-08-2013, 08:38 AM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by take a peak View Post
Funny how just a single game ago I posted about our playoffs not seeming to be 96% like the stats sites said...only responses were ...."dude,bro you expect those teams to all have amazing records and pass us, Sens are in"....

...now everyone is crapping their pants, it has swung the other way....

...cannot people actually look at what needs to happen for them to miss to get a slightly clearer understanding of how this last stretch looks. The Sens are not out of it by any means, nor are they are lock....so little of actual thought in posts, so reactionary.

After the weekend, the Sens are actually closer to the playoffs because of the Devils 0-1-1 record, which really hurt their chances.

For Senators to miss it would take....

Sens go 5-5.....Devils need to finish 7-1-1 or Jets 7-1-0.
Sens go 4-6......Devils need to finish 6-2-1 or Jets 6-2-0.
Sens go 3-7.....Devils need to finish 5-3-1 or Jets 5-2-1.
Sens go 2-8....Devils need to finish 4-4-1 or Jets 4-3-1.

So before the weekend I thought 5 wins gives the Sens a spot, looking at it now 4 wins could easily do it...chances actually look a little better. But again since our 96% playoff spot one game ago, it looks even less like 96%, but still very doable.

I thought the last game was huge, and they lost...meaning the next one, Tampa is absolutely must win....actually all three next ones are massive tilts (Tampa, Philly...then Devils) ...these are all supposed winnable games, which they better get some points because after that, while playing at home, the teams are much tougher.

The Devils game is going to be huge, as much as you are cheering for a Sens win in the next two, everyone should cheer for a Boston win of the Devils (should not be hard, seeing as so many of you all are online bff's with them )

Enough with the We are in!!!...Oh no we are out!!!....plenty of hockey left....almost 20% of the season...lots can happen....could finish anywhere from 5-10th.
Thing you are forgetting is that NYI and NYR would need to pass Ottawa as well to put Ottawa in 9th. Its not just NJD or Winnipeg that need to pass them, thats why its so unlikely for a team to drop 3 spots with 10 games remaining as long as they don't go 0-10.

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04-08-2013, 08:55 AM
  #58
Karl Eriksson
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Step 1 - Enter Cowen exit Gryba

Step 2 - Enter Michalek, demote Lats

Step 3 - Take Regin's back and surgically impant it in spezza

Step 4 - Take Lundin's achilles and surgically impant it in Karlsson

Step 5 - Spezza and Karlsson return for the stretch

Step 6 - Win

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04-08-2013, 08:59 AM
  #59
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is it too late to start tanking?

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04-08-2013, 09:03 AM
  #60
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Winning and losing streaks happen. Nothing to be wrroeid about.

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Old
04-08-2013, 09:17 AM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ErikKarlsson View Post
Thing you are forgetting is that NYI and NYR would need to pass Ottawa as well to put Ottawa in 9th. Its not just NJD or Winnipeg that need to pass them, thats why its so unlikely for a team to drop 3 spots with 10 games remaining as long as they don't go 0-10.
I'm not forgetting anything, Ranger and Isles simply have to win 1 more game than the Sens down the stretch, don't see how that is 'highly unlikely' given how they are playing, how we are playing and remaining schedules.

Sens 5-5...Rangers need 6-4, Isles 6-3
Sens 4-6...Rangers 5-5, Isles 5-4
Sens 3-8...Rangers 4-6, Isles 4-5

Odds today at 94%, just don't think it looks like 94%...Still think it is a very good chance, just not such a lock....actually looks better than one game ago, despite the Fla loss because of the Devils crappy weekend.

Just trying look at it in realistic scenarios, and also point out how important the next games are...its good though, some adversity and added entertainment for us which is what hockey is to me entertainment. The more massive the tilt the better the tilt.

They need to pick up some points in the next three (especially the Devils game) or it could get real dicey.

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04-08-2013, 09:25 AM
  #62
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was watching the post-game interviews Lats should be put on sucide watch

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Old
04-08-2013, 09:28 AM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Karl Eriksson View Post
Step 1 - Enter Cowen exit Gryba

Step 2 - Enter Michalek, demote Lats

Step 3 - Take Regin's back and surgically impant it in spezza

Step 4 - Take Lundin's achilles and surgically impant it in Karlsson

Step 5 - Spezza and Karlsson return for the stretch

Step 6 - Win
Step 7 - Profit

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04-08-2013, 09:30 AM
  #64
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Step 1- collect underpants

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Old
04-08-2013, 09:32 AM
  #65
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Year 2 of the rebuild folks, settle down.

It's easy to forget at the start of the year we all thought we could maybe squeeze in to 8th. That was with Michalek, Spezza, Anderson and Karlsson. Once the players started to get injured we all thought great unlikely we make the playoffs now. Now here we are 10 games left in the season and suddenly everyone is freaking out about staying in the playoffs?

Chill.

First of all it's highly unlikely this team which has battled through so much adversity just mails it in. Yes, they have been absolutely lethargic these last 4 games and still have been keeping games close. A little puck luck here or there and we wouldnt be having this conversation.

Sens are still winning the cup this year, have faith

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04-08-2013, 09:41 AM
  #66
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No doubt the sens have overachieved with all of the injuries and they have done this admirably.

I saw signs of the old sens against Florida....continuous cycle , perimeter play, passing too much instead of taking the shot, shots from the outside, no powerplay scoring chances etc.

Hopefully just a blip. I know they had 41 shots against Florida but scoring chances were few and far between. Bring back the pesky sens!

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04-08-2013, 09:47 AM
  #67
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Yeah I still see us making the playoffs but as the 7th or 8th seed and not at #6 as we are right now.

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04-08-2013, 09:58 AM
  #68
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Step 1- collect underpants
Step 2 - ???

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04-08-2013, 10:08 AM
  #69
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out of teams 6 through 12 in the east the Sens and Devils have the hardest games. Philly and Winnipeg have the easiest.

Philly is still a long shot but are the most capable of running the table.

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04-08-2013, 10:25 AM
  #70
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2nd year of a rebuild and the mobs already grabbing thier torches.

other said with our top players out so were we......and yet we remain in 6th so without all the crazy "end is here" talk i am more then pleased with how this team has developed.

Cannot wait for next season.

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04-08-2013, 10:32 AM
  #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by take a peak View Post
I'm not forgetting anything, Ranger and Isles simply have to win 1 more game than the Sens down the stretch, don't see how that is 'highly unlikely' given how they are playing, how we are playing and remaining schedules.

Sens 5-5...Rangers need 6-4, Isles 6-3
Sens 4-6...Rangers 5-5, Isles 5-4
Sens 3-8...Rangers 4-6, Isles 4-5

Odds today at 94%, just don't think it looks like 94%...Still think it is a very good chance, just not such a lock....actually looks better than one game ago, despite the Fla loss because of the Devils crappy weekend.

Just trying look at it in realistic scenarios, and also point out how important the next games are...its good though, some adversity and added entertainment for us which is what hockey is to me entertainment. The more massive the tilt the better the tilt.

They need to pick up some points in the next three (especially the Devils game) or it could get real dicey.
TOR plays NYR x2, NJD x1, OTT x1, NYI x1, WAS x1
OTT plays TOR x1, NJD x1, WAS x2
NYR plays TOR x2, NYI x1, NJD x2
NYI plays TOR x1, NYR x1, WPG x1
NJD plays NYR x2, TOR x1, OTT x1
WPG plays NYI x1, WAS x1
WAS plays TOR x1, OTT x2, WPG x1

So most teams are playing atleast 4 games against teams they are fighting for a playoff spot with and someone has to lose those games. So you are counting on all of those teams doing well and Ottawa doing awful. I'm not sure how they do the math behind the 94% but this is probably one of the reasons why its not that realistic to think Ottawa will miss the playoffs at this point especially with 5 more home games where Ottawa has a 13-3-3 record.

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04-08-2013, 10:35 AM
  #72
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Originally Posted by Stylizer1 View Post
out of teams 6 through 12 in the east the Sens and Devils have the hardest games. Philly and Winnipeg have the easiest.

Philly is still a long shot but are the most capable of running the table.

I completely disagree. Philly is playing 8 out of 10 games against teams in playoff position. WPG plays only 3 games out of 7 against playoff teams.

Leafs probably have the hardest schedule with 8 out of 10 games against playoff teams too

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04-08-2013, 10:42 AM
  #73
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Originally Posted by take a peak View Post
Funny how just a single game ago I posted about our playoffs not seeming to be 96% like the stats sites said...only responses were ...."dude,bro you expect those teams to all have amazing records and pass us, Sens are in"....

...now everyone is crapping their pants, it has swung the other way....

...cannot people actually look at what needs to happen for them to miss to get a slightly clearer understanding of how this last stretch looks. The Sens are not out of it by any means, nor are they are lock....so little of actual thought in posts, so reactionary.

After the weekend, the Sens are actually closer to the playoffs because of the Devils 0-1-1 record, which really hurt their chances.

For Senators to miss it would take....

Sens go 5-5.....Devils need to finish 7-1-1 or Jets 7-1-0.
Sens go 4-6......Devils need to finish 6-2-1 or Jets 6-2-0.
Sens go 3-7.....Devils need to finish 5-3-1 or Jets 5-2-1.
Sens go 2-8....Devils need to finish 4-4-1 or Jets 4-3-1.

So before the weekend I thought 5 wins gives the Sens a spot, looking at it now 4 wins could easily do it...chances actually look a little better. But again since our 96% playoff spot one game ago, it looks even less like 96%, but still very doable.

I thought the last game was huge, and they lost...meaning the next one, Tampa is absolutely must win....actually all three next ones are massive tilts (Tampa, Philly...then Devils) ...these are all supposed winnable games, which they better get some points because after that, while playing at home, the teams are much tougher.

The Devils game is going to be huge, as much as you are cheering for a Sens win in the next two, everyone should cheer for a Boston win of the Devils (should not be hard, seeing as so many of you all are online bff's with them )

Enough with the We are in!!!...Oh no we are out!!!....plenty of hockey left....almost 20% of the season...lots can happen....could finish anywhere from 5-10th.
Interesting analysis, but you failed to take into account the tie-breakers.

Devil are 2 ROW behind Ottawa, Ottawa leads the season series 4-2 (pts). However, the first game in NJ does not count for the second tie breaker. Therefore, the series is currently at 2-1 in favor of Ottawa. Should the Devils win their game against us in regulation, they would win the second tie breaker. A OTL/SOL for Ott and this tie breaker is null - Ottawa currently leads the final tie-breaker +9 to -14. A win of any kind and Ottawa claims it.

Jets have a 3 ROW advantage, but Ottawa has won the series 4-0 (omit the first game in Ottawa).

By this, Devils only need 2 ROW more than Ottawa, provided they beet Ottawa in regulation in their game.

Jet just need to tie Ottawa to be in - unless 3 of their wins are in Shootouts.

Gah that is complicated.

Edit: I see that your lines are for clearly winning without tie breakers.

Edit 2: As for NYR & NYI, they both have a 1 ROW advantage but Ottawa are 4-0(pts) vs both teams.


Last edited by gmyx: 04-08-2013 at 10:49 AM.
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Old
04-08-2013, 10:49 AM
  #74
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Originally Posted by Stylizer1 View Post
that starts the downward spiral out of the playoffs?

Our final games are against:
Tampa
Philly
NJ
Boston
Carolina
Washington
Toronto
Pittsburgh
Washington
Philly

Losing to Buffalo and Florida are both games we should have won to give us a little more space. With all the above teams fighting for the playoffs and that we have had trouble with most of them are you the least bit worried?

If ever we needed scoring it is now.
You guys are still all but in. Even a 3-6-1 record would get you guys in most likely.

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04-08-2013, 10:52 AM
  #75
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