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Value of the MacKinnon Pick

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Old
04-08-2013, 10:12 AM
  #101
Djp
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If tornoto's pick is around 19-20....

Tornot needs to move up first before doing this deal. A team at 4 or 5 will not move that far down just for one player.

What Toronto needs to do is first move from 19/20 to around 11/13 by trading their 2nd.

From there Toronto could go from 11/13 to 4/5 by trading Rielly/Gardiner.

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04-08-2013, 10:14 AM
  #102
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No one is trading out of the top 3 unless there is a huge overplayment.

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04-08-2013, 10:19 AM
  #103
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Only on HF...

People are so willing to just dish out huge packages for a prospect who's proven nothing in the NHL compared to what they'd be willing to give up for a 27-30 year old proven player in the league. Some of these offers are quite a bit larger than the Nash trade, etc.

The NHL doesnt work that way. We're not talking about the Crosby or Lecavalier draft. I know a lot of people were hoping two years ago that Mackinnon would be at the level, but he's not. He's not even at the Alexander Daigle level of cant miss drafts. He's on a line with two other great offensive talents. We're talking about a player who might not even be ready to play in the NHL next year. A player who had an up and down World Junior.

Teams arent going to be lining up to bet the farm on him. Jones on the other hand, would create much more interest.

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04-08-2013, 10:33 AM
  #104
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Originally Posted by HockeyThoughts View Post
I'd trade our 1st and Jake Gardiner.

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04-08-2013, 10:56 AM
  #105
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Originally Posted by CREW99AW View Post
No, the Lindros trade is not comparable because teams thought Lindros was the next
Gretzky, a generational talent.
Lindros was a generational talent. For a 3-4 year span, I would have taken him over almost anyone.

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04-08-2013, 10:58 AM
  #106
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Originally Posted by HockeyThoughts View Post
JVR-MacKinnon-Kessel
Kulemin-Kadri-Lupul
MacArthur-Bozak-Frattin
Komarov-McClement-Enforcer



I'd trade our 1st and Jake Gardiner.
Good for you that won't get you into the top 3 this year.

Mackinnon is the third pick this year I'd take drouin and jones over him in an absolute no brainer.

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04-08-2013, 11:00 AM
  #107
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Petes2424 View Post
Only on HF...

People are so willing to just dish out huge packages for a prospect who's proven nothing in the NHL compared to what they'd be willing to give up for a 27-30 year old proven player in the league. Some of these offers are quite a bit larger than the Nash trade, etc.

The NHL doesnt work that way. We're not talking about the Crosby or Lecavalier draft. I know a lot of people were hoping two years ago that Mackinnon would be at the level, but he's not. He's not even at the Alexander Daigle level of cant miss drafts. He's on a line with two other great offensive talents. We're talking about a player who might not even be ready to play in the NHL next year. A player who had an up and down World Junior.

Teams arent going to be lining up to bet the farm on him. Jones on the other hand, would create much more interest.
Sometimes I wish the tournament didn't exist so amateur scouts who enjoy sample sizes of six games didn't pass judgement on players.

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04-08-2013, 11:19 AM
  #108
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Originally Posted by Gobias Industries View Post
Sometimes I wish the tournament didn't exist so amateur scouts who enjoy sample sizes of six games didn't pass judgement on players.
It's really only part of it.

Are you suggesting he's on par with the Daigle, Crosby or Lecavalier drafts? If that were the case, there would be no doubt who the #1 pick would be.

For the World Juniors, you look at players who have dominant moments. Drouin had those moments, as did Jones. Mackinnon did not. Like I said, there's so many other factors also. His linemates, The Q, etc. Im not saying he wont end up being a great NHL player. There are questions though and teams dont mortgage their farm in that situation.

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04-08-2013, 11:28 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by Petes2424 View Post
It's really only part of it.

Are you suggesting he's on par with the Daigle, Crosby or Lecavalier drafts? If that were the case, there would be no doubt who the #1 pick would be.

For the World Juniors, you look at players who have dominant moments. Drouin had those moments, as did Jones. Mackinnon did not. Like I said, there's so many other factors also. His linemates, The Q, etc. Im not saying he wont end up being a great NHL player. There are questions though and teams dont mortgage their farm in that situation.
I agree with a lot of what you're saying but this draft is a bit of an anomaly. It has 2 legit franchise players and one sure fire star, I can't remember the last time there were 3 legit number 1s in a draft going in. The malkin ovechkin draft is the last time there has been 2 stand out number ones going into it. (Not to say there hasnt been drafts that had more than one legit number 1 drafted but they just weren't clear cut sure fire can't miss locks like this season prior to the draft)

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04-08-2013, 11:33 AM
  #110
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This thread is ridiculous...

1st a fellow Leaf fan believes we can get a top 3 pick for Gardiner + 1st then an Avs fan says we couldn't get a top 10 pick for Gardiner, Colborne and the 16th overall. Both equally ridiculous statements.

The pick to get MacKinnon would easily cost us our entire cupboard of prospects including Colborne, Rielly and Gardiner. Is it worth it? Hard to say. Is it an overpayment? With zero pro experience of course it is. Will we do it? I pray to god no.

At the same time, two former 1st rounders from the previous 4 years, who still have upside, and something around the 16th pick, easily moves you up 6 spots, arguably even 9-10 depending on who is available and what the teams needs are.

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04-08-2013, 11:39 AM
  #111
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Originally Posted by Hotlanta View Post
This thread is ridiculous...

1st a fellow Leaf fan believes we can get a top 3 pick for Gardiner + 1st then an Avs fan says we couldn't get a top 10 pick for Gardiner, Colborne and the 16th overall. Both equally ridiculous statements.

The pick to get MacKinnon would easily cost us our entire cupboard of prospects including Colborne, Rielly and Gardiner. Is it worth it? Hard to say. Is it an overpayment? With zero pro experience of course it is. Will we do it? I pray to god no.

At the same time, two former 1st rounders from the previous 4 years, who still have upside, and something around the 16th pick, easily moves you up 6 spots, arguably even 9-10 depending on who is available and what the teams needs are.
It's much easier to move from 24 to 15, than it is from 11 to 2.

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04-08-2013, 11:42 AM
  #112
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Originally Posted by TheNuge View Post
If Im Calgary, Florida Or Colorado


I Take the leafs

1st rounder 2013
Jake Gardiner
Colbourne

For

Nate Mackinnon

Im sure you will get a decent 1st round pick, mid draft..plus some blue chip prospects in Gardiner and Colbourne
Would you take that group for RNH? No you would not.

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04-08-2013, 11:45 AM
  #113
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gobias Industries View Post
Sometimes I wish the tournament didn't exist so amateur scouts who enjoy sample sizes of six games didn't pass judgement on players.
It's not a good sample size. But it does give people the chance to see all of these prospects on a level playing field.

It's pretty hard to compare Prospect X who is playing against men in a Finnish league to Prospect Y who is playing against 16-20 year olds in the CHL to Prospect Z who is playing in High School in the US or in the US Development League, etc.

Bringing them all together in one tournament allows you to see them playing against each other, and against similar competition. Not to mention, you want to see which ones are "clutch". Though obviously due to the small sample size and the fact that some prospects just get derailed, plateau early, etc. it's not perfect and doesn't always translate.

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04-08-2013, 11:48 AM
  #114
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hotlanta View Post
This thread is ridiculous...

1st a fellow Leaf fan believes we can get a top 3 pick for Gardiner + 1st then an Avs fan says we couldn't get a top 10 pick for Gardiner, Colborne and the 16th overall. Both equally ridiculous statements.

The pick to get MacKinnon would easily cost us our entire cupboard of prospects including Colborne, Rielly and Gardiner. Is it worth it? Hard to say. Is it an overpayment? With zero pro experience of course it is. Will we do it? I pray to god no.

At the same time, two former 1st rounders from the previous 4 years, who still have upside, and something around the 16th pick, easily moves you up 6 spots, arguably even 9-10 depending on who is available and what the teams needs are.
Actually I said that you could get barely into the top10.
I even acknowledged that it could get you to 8th if you are very lucky. But thanks for the misquote...

I still don't think that any team jumps on or even entertains a Gardiner + 16th + Colborne for one of Jones, MacKinnon, Drouin, Barkov, Nichushkin, Lindholm or Monahan.
So maybe you can get Nurse, Ristolainen or Shinkaruk in return at the 8th spot. Maybe not. Depends on how high the respective team is on Gardiner.

I just laughed at the notion that you could get anywhere close to TOP5. And the offer was for MacKinnon who easily goes Top3...

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04-08-2013, 12:26 PM
  #115
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Young dynamic top 4 defenseman with top pairing potential and 16th-25th pick in the NHL Draft. Yeah, we'd probably have to add something but I don't see how it wouldn't get us close.
Hey buddy if you were offered a guy like Brenden Smith and Detroits first would you take that for Nathan Mackinnon? No ok so just stop.

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04-08-2013, 12:43 PM
  #116
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Miller or Vanek with Buffalo eating half their salary.

Grigorenko

First and second this year.

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Old
04-08-2013, 01:10 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by Revelate View Post
Miller or Vanek with Buffalo eating half their salary.

Grigorenko

First and second this year.
Seems like a lot to move up 7 spots. But probably around the asking price.

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04-08-2013, 01:22 PM
  #118
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Originally Posted by Revelate View Post
Miller or Vanek with Buffalo eating half their salary.

Grigorenko

First and second this year.
That is too much IMO. Nurse, Shinkaruk, Ristolainen or if you are lucky Monahan could still be on board where BUF picks.

If Nurse or Monahan are there, I would take the deal if the Avs pick 2nd or 3rd and Jones is already gone.
Vanek at 3.5M + Nurse + Grigorenko + 2nd is just way too much to pass up.

Kudos for offering a very good deal but it is overpayment from Buffalo IMO.

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04-08-2013, 01:33 PM
  #119
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Originally Posted by TheNuge View Post
If Im Calgary, Florida Or Colorado


I Take the leafs

1st rounder 2013
Jake Gardiner
Colbourne

For

Nate Mackinnon

Im sure you will get a decent 1st round pick, mid draft..plus some blue chip prospects in Gardiner and Colbourne
The flames would run from that deal so fast.
More college players or no lottery pick!

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04-08-2013, 01:47 PM
  #120
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You don't move a pick for a player that you think is going to be a star unless you are getting a star back.

A package would have to look like:

-Your 1st this year
-A top pairing defenseman or top 3 forward that is still youngish and under contract for a while (lets say 29 or younger and at least 4 more years)
-Depending on the first two, potentially another piece (a good prospect)

Some interesting scenarios could be out there for a team that has good young players but aren't sold on keeping all of them... like say Edmonton would consider moving Yak or RNH, could a straight up player for pick deal be done there?

Seguin from Boston?

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04-08-2013, 03:22 PM
  #121
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Originally Posted by Revelate View Post
Miller or Vanek with Buffalo eating half their salary.

Grigorenko

First and second this year.
LOL no way.

Why would we trade Vanek, who is an elite goal scorer, for someone who MIGHT be good? Plus with Grigorenko and our first? Dude...

No friggin way.

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04-08-2013, 03:43 PM
  #122
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Assuming Buffalo wanted to move up from 6 to 2 it would probably take something along the lines of 2013 1st rd (BUF 6th overall), 2013 1st rd (MIN 25th overall), 2013 2nd (BUF 38th overall) or a mid tier roster player, perhaps both and I still dont know if the team at 2 overall would want to do it. In other words steep.

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04-08-2013, 03:57 PM
  #123
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Historical perspective.

2001 2nd overall cost Yashin (bad deal)
2004 from 8th to 4th cost a second.
2008 from 7th to 5th cost a second and a third.

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04-08-2013, 04:03 PM
  #124
Pierce Hawthorne
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Originally Posted by Man Bear Pig View Post
Do you know why he's been scratched? good, because Leafs fans don't either. This is the same guy who led NHL rookie dmen in scoring last season but you, and many other people here, seem to leave that part out. Not that I'm implying he'd get you a top 3 pick but to simply brush Gardiner off as some player who gets scratched, implying he stinks, is simply ridiculous.
I think its pretty damn obvious why he has been a healthy scratch actually. He is horrible defensively.

If a coach as good as Carlyle who is very defense oriented is scratching Gardiner on a nighlty basis, its pretty frigging obvious that Gardiner doesn't have the trust of his coaches to go out there and play a good defensive game.


Leading Rookie Dmen in points is great and all, but there are a lot of questions surrounding Gardiners game right now. And it would appear based on his play at the NHL level this year(or lack there of) under the same coach, that he has taken a step back this year.

Gardiner is looking a lot more like a #3/4 Offensive Dman then the Top pairing two way Dman he was once hoped to be. More along the lines of a Joe Corvo then a Dan Boyle.

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04-08-2013, 04:05 PM
  #125
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Originally Posted by kenfury View Post
Historical perspective.

2001 2nd overall cost Yashin (bad deal)
2004 from 8th to 4th cost a second.
2008 from 7th to 5th cost a second and a third.
Very situational dependent. In most years the 4-8th range is very subjective as to who the BPA is, and you also have to take into account organizational needs.. If you are at the #4 position, but see a player at 8 you want, it makes sense to trade down, as you are going to pick that player anyways and might as well get an asset for free. Here the top 4 (and arguably top 6) all look amazing. I don't see anyone parting with those picks to end up drafting in the 20 range.

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