Everyone is saying he is at least a candidate and being the top point getter in the league (with less games played) it's hard to argue with that. In my opinion it's going to come down to Subban and Suter. We just don't hear much about Suter cuz he's playing out in the West and there are no East-West games this year. There's 10 games left, that's 20% of the season remaining so time will tell.
At this point in the season, I don't see how he isn't the front runner.
Should he fade and Letang or Suter surpass him, that's one thing. As of NOW, there's no better defenseman in the NHL, IMO.
That being said, I could see Suter win it based on years in the league, he's paid his dues, yadda yadda yadda. Hope that's not the case but soemtimes you have to be blow the doors off to win it over older, more veteran guys like Karlsson did last year.
To me, the Norris should go to the best all-around defenseman in the league, not just the guy who scores the most points. That means the winner should put up points, but also be a solid presence in his own end and the guy who the coach turns to when Crosby's on the ice or the team is down a man.
If you look at stats other than simple points (which Subban leads with a point a game, versus Suter's 0.76 PPG), you get a better picture of the relative contributions of each player. Subban is the more physically punishing, with 43 hits to Suter's 28. But Suter blocks more shots (55) than Subban (41). Subban has twice as many giveaways than Suter (32-16). He slightly beats Suter on takeaways (8-6). Subban is a much more potent weapon on the PP, with 21 points to Suter's 13, playing comparable minutes per game. (That said, because of his extra games played, Suter actually has 16 extra minutes of PP time on the year.)
The even-strength ice time is an issue, as mentioned by others. Suter plays 20:50 minutes 5-on-5 a night, while Subban gets only 17:09. 93 other defencemen in the league play more at even strength, including other Ds on Subban's own team. That could imply Therrien doesn't trust Subban as much as he does Gorges and Markov for those looking for an excuse to disqualify Subban. They may not look at the fact that Therrien plays all of his top four defencemen around 17-18 minutes at even strength, to balance the workload. More damaging to Subban's case might be his ice time on the PK. Suter plays 2:26 shorthanded each game. Subban plays a full minute less than that. Gorges, Emelin and Diaz play more on the PK than PK does.
So, all things considered, Subban is an excellent point producer and the Habs would be in big trouble without him. He doesn't really dominate any defensive category, though, if you look at pure numbers. Then again, the Norris voters usually only look at points, so he'll get quite a few checks beside his name.
Coming from a Leafs fan I think he's pretty much a lock at this point. PPG d-man who leads his team that is 25-8-5 the 4th best record in the NHL in points. Just looking at where your team has gone from last year to this and his production the Norris seems to me like it's his to lose.
Asinine logic, but I suspect you're not being very serious.
Should Subban be blamed fro the season not being 82 games?
Why should he "blamed"? I don't understand YOUR logic.
I'm just saying that being dominant for 48 games overall is a less important feat than being dominant for 82 games overall. You still need to point out a winner, and I strongly believe Subban deserves it.
Not saying Subban wouldn't have competed at the same level in a 82 game season either. But it's not a 82 games season. Therefore, this year shouldn't be used for comparative stats and award with the other years before and after.
The NHL playoffs, however, will be 100% comparable, since nothing will be different.