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Old
04-08-2013, 06:59 AM
  #26
MartyOwns
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eggers View Post
I feel like this is a good time for this since we could all use some good news.

Devils are second overall in the league in adjusted corsi percentage (the ratio of shot attempts taken to shot attempts allowed).

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/team...T&sortdir=DESC

SECOND. Only to Los Angeles. Don't bother with what the stats "really mean" or whether you think they matter. Look at the other teams around us in that list and you'll see pretty much a "who's who" of the best teams around the league.

There may not be enough time left for the bounces to start going Jersey's way in time to save this season (5th last in PDO in the league), but take solace in the fact that this is an excellent hockey team, and that we're likely to be back up there with a full season under our belts next Spring.
the fact that this is true and we suck just reinforces how cherry picked and ridiculous some of these stats are

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04-08-2013, 07:44 AM
  #27
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"Bad bounces" a.k.a. "lack of offensive talent"

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04-08-2013, 07:50 AM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MartyOwns View Post
the fact that this is true and we suck just reinforces how cherry picked and ridiculous some of these stats are
These stats aren't cherry picked at all. Corsi/Fenwick correlate better with future winning than current W/L and GF/GA.

Players like David Clarkson will tend to skew these stats a bit, but in general the Devils do a very good job controlling possession, which is very important to winning.

Statistically, it's not advisable to make up your mind about a team based on 35 games. We know that even over a full 82 game season, there will be 100 point and 80 point teams strictly out of randomness. As such, one needs to look deeper than just wins and losses, and points.

Additionally, the shootout, which is random as random can be, has been the Devils main downfall this year compared to last year.


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04-08-2013, 08:40 AM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
These stats aren't cherry picked at all. Corsi/Fenwick correlate better with future winning than current W/L and GF/GA.

Players like David Clarkson will tend to skew these stats a bit, but in general the Devils do a very good job controlling possession, which is very important to winning.

Statistically, it's not advisable to make up your mind about a team based on 35 games. We know that even over a full 82 game season, there will be 100 point and 80 point teams strictly out of randomness. As such, one needs to look deeper than just wins and losses, and points.

Additionally, the shootout, which is random as random can be, has been the Devils main downfall this year compared to last year.
i know, i know. talent/rosters/coaches donít make any difference, its all random luck- some teams will be great and others will be bad. not looking to engage in that discussion again

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04-08-2013, 12:21 PM
  #30
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the stats aren't ridiculous and are not meant to be used as a "be all end all" argument

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04-08-2013, 01:23 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zajacs Bowl Cut View Post
the stats aren't ridiculous and are not meant to be used as a "be all end all" argument
I actually don't think they're ridiculous. They do show who has had the better hand as far as puck possession goes. Like last year, Devils were a pretty good team that could play some damn good hockey. From watching the games, you could see they had potential. Standings didn't always reflect that, but some of these stats did.

I just think it gets to the ridiculous part when people look at these numbers and then try to brush off the team losing as "bad luck". Watch the team this year, and they are CLEARLY much worse than last year. Despite the system still leading to them out shooting opponents.

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04-08-2013, 01:27 PM
  #32
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so we're the worst at being one of the best or we're the best at being on of the worst... which is it exactly?

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04-08-2013, 01:41 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MartyOwns View Post
i know, i know. talent/rosters/coaches don’t make any difference, its all random luck- some teams will be great and others will be bad. not looking to engage in that discussion again
I never said it's all luck. Teams have primary control over puck possession, which is very much based on team talent and coaching. I've acknowledged this all along.

Additionally, goaltending skill has a large impact on the outcome of games, but goaltending performance can vary a lot over the course of the season. The thing team's have the least amount of control of is shooting skill, which is what the majority of the people on this board seem to be complaining about.

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04-08-2013, 01:41 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DontPass2Clarkson View Post
I actually don't think they're ridiculous. They do show who has had the better hand as far as puck possession goes. Like last year, Devils were a pretty good team that could play some damn good hockey. From watching the games, you could see they had potential. Standings didn't always reflect that, but some of these stats did.

I just think it gets to the ridiculous part when people look at these numbers and then try to brush off the team losing as "bad luck". Watch the team this year, and they are CLEARLY much worse than last year. Despite the system still leading to them out shooting opponents.
I watch the team, and don't think they are clearly worse than last year.

If the 2011-12 NJ devils had this season's shootout winning percentage, and weren't graced by some fortunate bounces at the end of the Florida series, I highly doubt you would think that team was so much better than this one.


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Old
04-08-2013, 01:49 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richer's Ghost View Post
so we're the worst at being one of the best or we're the best at being on of the worst... which is it exactly?
It's very simple.

The Devils have a true skill level. I think that skill level is higher than many of you.

While wins and losses are what matters for making the playoffs, they are only a snapshot of a team's true skill level. A lot of random crap can happen to skew the outcome from true team skill level to wins and losses in a small sample size.

What befuddles many sports fans is confirmation bias. If they see their team in the loss column, they automatically think the team is bad, so they will look for stories to confirm that supposition (my eyes tell me this, me eyes tell me that, this coach stinks, that player stinks). In most cases, teams with a lot of losses are truly bad. However, there are many cases when good teams are the recipient of bad luck and will look worse than they truly are, and vice versa.

I have the utmost confidence that the 2012-13 Devils are a playoff caliber team and could probably make some noise in the playoffs if they make it. Unfortunately, due to the shortened season, they might not have enough time for the bounces to even out.

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04-08-2013, 02:11 PM
  #36
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This should get good

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Old
04-08-2013, 02:15 PM
  #37
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obl text

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Old
04-08-2013, 02:26 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
It's very simple.

The Devils have a true skill level. I think that skill level is higher than many of you.

While wins and losses are what matters for making the playoffs, they are only a snapshot of a team's true skill level. A lot of random crap can happen to skew the outcome from true team skill level to wins and losses in a small sample size.
Maybe after the next lockout, the league will switch to Corsi to determine who makes the playoffs. Don't we want the teams with the most skill in the dance, rather then the ones who endured the random crap that gets you those silly wins?

Seems legit.


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04-08-2013, 03:42 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Luke3026 View Post
Maybe after the next lockout, the league will switch to Corsi to determine who makes the playoffs. Don't we want the teams with the most skill in the dance, rather then the ones who endured the random crap that gets you those silly wins?

Seems legit.

Wins are a stat, just like Corsi is a stat. They both measure team performance. Wins are the stats that matter, however that doesn't necessarily mean they are more objective at assessing true skill over a small sample size.

And no, I wouldn't prefer an NHL that ranked teams by Corsi metrics, just like I don't think the NHL should award the Stanley Cup to the team with the best regular season record. A degree of luck, a degree of randomness, makes for a lot of excitement. That's what makes the playoffs so awesome - so much riding on so little, with a bounce of the puck igniting or killing a season.

That spontaneity can be enjoyed even while understanding the luck that underlies a lot of it.

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04-08-2013, 04:05 PM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DontPass2Clarkson View Post
"Bad bounces" a.k.a. "lack of offensive talent"
Yup, just like Ovechkin, whose offense has been "figured out" and nullified and is essentially a non-factor these days. Jeeze, what ever happened to that guy?

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04-08-2013, 04:26 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by Eggers View Post
Yup, just like Ovechkin, whose offense has been "figured out" and nullified and is essentially a non-factor these days. Jeeze, what ever happened to that guy?
He played the New Jersey Devils.

Prior to the Feb 23 game he had 5G / 5A / 10P in 16 GP.
During and since then he has 18G / 15A / 33P in 23 GP.

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04-08-2013, 04:36 PM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eggers View Post
Yup, just like Ovechkin, whose offense has been "figured out" and nullified and is essentially a non-factor these days. Jeeze, what ever happened to that guy?
Or what about our own wunderkind David Clarkson, who, after the first ten games of this season, had suddenly become a full fledged top line forward?

Or, conversely, how that same player became a pile of crud thirty games later?

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04-08-2013, 05:11 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
Or what about our own wunderkind David Clarkson, who, after the first ten games of this season, had suddenly become a full fledged top line forward?

Or, conversely, how that same player became a pile of crud thirty games later?
Exactly, now you're using your eyes to see that true talent varies enormously game to game or 10 game stretch to 30 game stretch.

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04-08-2013, 05:38 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
It's very simple.

The Devils have a true skill level. I think that skill level is higher than many of you.

While wins and losses are what matters for making the playoffs, they are only a snapshot of a team's true skill level. A lot of random crap can happen to skew the outcome from true team skill level to wins and losses in a small sample size.

What befuddles many sports fans is confirmation bias. If they see their team in the loss column, they automatically think the team is bad, so they will look for stories to confirm that supposition (my eyes tell me this, me eyes tell me that, this coach stinks, that player stinks). In most cases, teams with a lot of losses are truly bad. However, there are many cases when good teams are the recipient of bad luck and will look worse than they truly are, and vice versa.

I have the utmost confidence that the 2012-13 Devils are a playoff caliber team and could probably make some noise in the playoffs if they make it. Unfortunately, due to the shortened season, they might not have enough time for the bounces to even out.
This is so spot on, especially this season on these boards. If you are truly watching the games with an unbiased eye, you see that the difference between the games that we have won versus lost is really not that much different. Sure there have been a few really bad games but every team has those. As a matter of fact, I think the team is playing better overall over the last 5 games then they did in the first 5 games of the season.

You see it here most in the commentary about the forward group. According to posters, this year we all of a sudden have absolutely no talent. It's complete overreaction. We have 1 top-end forward less talent than last year, but a deeper overall crew. One bad season doesn't make them talentless offensively.

Maybe it's bad luck. Maybe it's lack of chemistry. Maybe it's lack of leadership. Certainly the offensively inept D-men don't help. But this forward group is not "talentless".

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Old
04-08-2013, 05:45 PM
  #45
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Take a look at the Ottawa Senators. They're forward group is not by any stretch that much better than ours. They have little top-end talent other than Alfie, and he has 20 points in 38 games. They're leading forward is Kyle Turris at 22 points. But they score by committee. The Devils have the kind of forward depth that could get that done, no doubt about it. And they have owned the puck enough to make it happen. For whatever reason we have been on the wrong side of that fine line.

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04-08-2013, 05:46 PM
  #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guitarguyvic View Post
Take a look at the Ottawa Senators. They're forward group is not by any stretch that much better than ours. They have little top-end talent other than Alfie, and he has 20 points in 38 games. They're leading forward is Kyle Turris at 22 points. But they score by committee. The Devils have the kind of forward depth that could get that done, no doubt about it. And they have owned the puck enough to make it happen. For whatever reason we have been on the wrong side of that fine line.
Totally.

Or the San Jose Sharks, for the other end of the spectrum. Their forward group is pretty impressive on paper, yet they were bottom of the NHL in goals scored for 30 games.

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04-08-2013, 06:10 PM
  #47
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As I said before, it's nice to know our Corsi is good and all, but that's little consolation if we miss the playoffs. I'd rather see it translate to wins.

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04-08-2013, 06:19 PM
  #48
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As I said before, it's nice to know our Corsi is good and all, but that's little consolation if we miss the playoffs. I'd rather see it translate to wins.
Like Marty said, he'd rather play badly and win than play well and lose.

Winning is all that matters at this point, but there really isn't anything a team can do other than go out and play well and hope they get the result they deserve.

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04-08-2013, 10:55 PM
  #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saugus View Post
As I said before, it's nice to know our Corsi is good and all, but that's little consolation if we miss the playoffs. I'd rather see it translate to wins.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Devils731 View Post
Like Marty said, he'd rather play badly and win than play well and lose.

Winning is all that matters at this point, but there really isn't anything a team can do other than go out and play well and hope they get the result they deserve.
Everyone here agrees, however, at least *some* signs for optimism are reasonable to consider, no? If this team were truly getting their ***** handed to them in all zones, I think the talk of anticipating the draft would be more warranted. But there is obvious legitimacy to the notion that we've outplayed opponents often with little to show for it in the win column. That said, we are two points out and technically in control of our destiny. It would be easier to feel optimistic if we had some results to hang our hats on... those wasted points in the Sunshine State cast a long shadow. Also, our principal opponents seem to be getting their collective **** together. I'm certain I wasn't the only one who saw the Rangers game today and when they tied it at 3-3 thought, "This is what a team who is fighting to make the playoffs looks like." Then, lo and behold, they break down and it's again on us to rise above adversity and make a run for the post-season.

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04-09-2013, 08:01 AM
  #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saugus View Post
As I said before, it's nice to know our Corsi is good and all, but that's little consolation if we miss the playoffs. I'd rather see it translate to wins.
The point is not to view our Corsi as a "consolation." It's simply to understand the performance of our team better.

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