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Can Malkin carry us again?

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04-09-2013, 01:07 PM
  #301
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Dropping Martin and Orpik would go a long way to securing both of them.

What's the big deal in treading water for a couple of years until the cap eventually goes back up? It's not like Tanger and Geno are in their 30's.

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04-09-2013, 01:08 PM
  #302
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Originally Posted by radapex View Post
The problem with looking at the long term is that you have to get through seasons at a lower salary cap before you can get to that long term.
Just to point out-so what?

We'd have Crosby, Malkin, and Letang. Who cares about our 4th line forwards? They've done nothing this year.

We'll still be competitive and still be a top 10 team BECAUSE of Crosby and Malkin.

People on here think they can get Toews, Hossa, and Kane all for Geno. They're living in lala land.

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04-09-2013, 01:09 PM
  #303
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Originally Posted by MtlPenFan View Post
Dropping Martin and Orpik would go a long way to securing both of them.

What's the big deal in treading water for a couple of years until the cap eventually goes back up? It's not like Tanger and Geno are in their 30's.
Because on HFBoards people fall in love with these silly buzzwords/ideas-they minimize the game to simple calculations of money which is their first flaw. After that it's just a series of arguments that semi-make sense at first glance and easily draw people in-but when anyone considers it deeply they simply fall apart.

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04-09-2013, 01:10 PM
  #304
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honest question, what has letang done to warrant huge money and/or possibly shipping malkin out?

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04-09-2013, 01:14 PM
  #305
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I would be interested in seeing a package that Malkin would be traded for that would: a) be fair value for the Pens; b) make sense for the team trading for him and not totally destroy their depth; and c) make more sense for the Pens in terms of cap savings.

In other words: not a trade of Malkin for picks and prospects no matter how good and not "Malkin to Edmonton for Yakupov, Eberle, RNH and whoever else they've got on a cheap contract" because why would Edmonton do that, but highly skilled players on cheap contracts that bring the same skill that Malkin does yet don't hurt the Pens in terms of cap and don't destroy the other team's depth. I don't think such a deal exists. You're never going to get fair value for Malkin unless you take on considerably more salary in a quality for quantity trade, and then what's the point?

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04-09-2013, 01:14 PM
  #306
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Originally Posted by Shady Machine View Post
Again this all sounds dandy until you start putting names in the trades. Who are we getting in a return for Malkin that is giving is all types of depth? What would you define as an adequate return for Malkin? This conversation really isn't valuable until you start naming possible trade scenarios. Once you look at it that way, it's clear to me that trading Malkin without substantially weakening our team is very, very difficult.
I could ask the same question about Letang.

Obviously, no one knows the return either of them being traded would fetch right now.

Quote:
honest question, what has letang done to warrant huge money and/or possibly shipping malkin out?
Put himself in the Norris trophy discussion.

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04-09-2013, 01:18 PM
  #307
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Originally Posted by Shockmaster View Post
I could ask the same question about Letang.

Obviously, no one knows the return either of them being traded would fetch right now.



Put himself in the Norris trophy discussion.
but he's never even been a nominee. it seems like every year he's in the running and then gets hurt. furthermore, it's a regular season award, which is great, but pales in comparison to something like the conn smythe.

letang has thus far been more hype and style than substance.

malkin has actually delivered.

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04-09-2013, 01:18 PM
  #308
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Originally Posted by Shockmaster View Post
I could ask the same question about Letang.

Obviously, no one knows the return either of them being traded would fetch right now.



Put himself in the Norris trophy discussion.
*At the beginning of every season.

Let's be honest-Crosby and Malkin are the reason Letang gets most of his assists.

Remember when they both went down? Before: LETANG NORRIS CANDIDATE After: Nothing was never said of him again.

He's a complementary player. He's not a Lidstrom, not a Doughty. Not even a Martin imo.


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04-09-2013, 01:18 PM
  #309
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Originally Posted by radapex View Post
It's got to increase quite a bit to have a significant impact. The $70.2-million salary cap set off 57% of $3.3-billion would require over $3.7-billion in revenue at a 50% split. Let's say they get back to the $3.3-billion mark next season, then the salary cap in 2014-15 will still be $64.3-million.

(2014-15) $3300-million * 0.5 / 30 + $8-million = $63-million = $64.3-million cap

Then, if we split the difference of projections used by the NHL (5%) and NHLPA (7%) for growth we're looking at the following:

2014-15 Revenue = $3300-million * 1.06 = $3498-million
(2015-16) $3498-million * 0.5 / 30 + $8-million = $66.3-millioncap

2015-16 Revenue = $3498-million * 1.06 = $3707.7-million
(2016-17) $3707.7-million * 0.5 / 30 + $8-million = $69.795-million cap

2016-17 Revenue = $3707.7-million * 1.06 = $3930.162-million
(2017-18) $3930.162-million * 0.5 / 30 + $8-million = $73.5027-million cap

So that's possibly 4 more seasons before the cap even hits $70-million again. That's assuming HRR returns to $3.3-billion next season and grows by 6% a year after that.

Unless the NHL suddenly takes off in the US, I can't see revenue every getting that close to to $4-billion. The NBA only pulls in about $4.3-billion a year and it's incredibly more popular than the NHL.
Why are you assuming it will only be $3.3billion next year? I would argue it's likely to be higher. The lockout hasn't seemed to hurt revenue much from what I've read. So let's take your projections and just adjust them back a year. For the 2014-2015 season, the cap will then be $66.3. That would be the first year or Geno and Letang's new contracts. So you have:

Kunitz or equiv (3.75) - Crosby (8.7) - Iginla (5)
Bennett (0.9) - Malkin (9.5) - Neal (5)
Cooke or equiv (1.8) - Sutter (3) - 3rd line dude (1.5)
4 Cheap ass vets or rookies (3.2)

Martin (5) - Harrington (0.9)
Despres (1.5) - Letang (6.5)
Bortuzzo (.9) - Murray (2.3)
Dumo (0.9)

Fleury (5)
Backup (1)

If my math is correct, that is 66.3. Obviously, that's really tight and I made some assumptions, but it's definitely possible. I think it's more likely that Martin would be gone to free up more space.

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04-09-2013, 01:23 PM
  #310
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Originally Posted by Shockmaster View Post
I could ask the same question about Letang.

Obviously, no one knows the return either of them being traded would fetch right now.



Put himself in the Norris trophy discussion.
You could, except I don't think losing Letang would hurt our team that much long term. That's the argument here. We would trade Letang and in 2 seasons Despres will step in and be a top 4 puck moving dman. He likely won't be as good as Letang, but he would help lessen the blow. There is no one in our system that will help lessen the blow of losing Geno. That's the point and why discussing the return for Geno is an absolute must in this equation. At least with trading letang you have prospects that project to be similar players.

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04-09-2013, 01:27 PM
  #311
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Originally Posted by Shady Machine View Post
You could, except I don't think losing Letang would hurt our team that much long term. That's the argument here. We would trade Letang and in 2 seasons Despres will step in and be a top 4 puck moving dman. He likely won't be as good as Letang, but he would help lessen the blow. There is no one in our system that will help lessen the blow of losing Geno. That's the point and why discussing the return for Geno is an absolute must in this equation. At least with trading letang you have prospects that project to be similar players.
Amen. I think Despres will make Letang's loss insignificant in the long term.

Plus reverse their argument:

Look at what we could get for Letang in a trade. Why is a #1 center that happens to be top 3 in game something we can trade for depth, but not a #1 defensemen?

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04-09-2013, 01:31 PM
  #312
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Originally Posted by ColePens View Post
I think what people fail to realize is that they somehow believe if we get rid of Geno, we will have someone at a high level 1) want to come here and 2) come at a cheap price. It just won't happen.


I agree... malkin hasn't played his best the last few weeks so people jump off the bandwagon.


If you get rid of malkin, you essentially get rid of 1/3 of neal. I'd much rather keep malkin than letang.

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04-09-2013, 01:31 PM
  #313
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shady Machine View Post
You could, except I don't think losing Letang would hurt our team that much long term. That's the argument here. We would trade Letang and in 2 seasons Despres will step in and be a top 4 puck moving dman. He likely won't be as good as Letang, but he would help lessen the blow. There is no one in our system that will help lessen the blow of losing Geno. That's the point and why discussing the return for Geno is an absolute must in this equation. At least with trading letang you have prospects that project to be similar players.
Because "you can make the team stronger by trading Malkin", "Letang is more valuable to the team," and "the Penguins already have a Sid so they don't need a Malkin".

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04-09-2013, 01:32 PM
  #314
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Originally Posted by PantherDigest View Post
Amen. I think Despres will make Letang's loss insignificant in the long term.

Plus reverse their argument:

Look at what we could get for Letang in a trade. Why is a #1 center that happens to be top 3 in game something we can trade for depth, but not a #1 defensemen?
Because we have Crosby apparently and no other Letangs today. Never mind the fact that if we had to trade one of them, it would be which one would hurt less in the long run. Given the prospect pool and their respective careers, the choice is obvious.

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04-09-2013, 01:35 PM
  #315
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Originally Posted by PantherDigest View Post
Yes but you fail to take into account the impact a lower cap has on new deals.

You're essentially arguing from the standpoint of a decrease in cap space without taking into account the league wide impact as well as the impact on new deals.

It's nice when people post numbers. These numbers aren't effective at gauging growth nor predicting the future, though. I expect the NHL to grow at an even faster rate as the possibility of relocation and expansion adds even more revenue.
The lower cap next season (and possible for a season or two beyond that) hasn't had much effect on re-signings so far, so I fail to see how it would going forward.

Since the new CBA was announced, we've see contracts such as:

Corey Perry @ $8.625M (Career 0.81 points per game)
Ryan Getzlaf @ $8.250M (Career 0.94 points per game)
Alex Semin @ $7.000M (Career 0.88 points per game)
Travis Zajac @ $5.750M (Career 0.58 points per game)
Jamie Benn @ $5.250M (Career 0.74 points per game)
Joffrey Lupul @ $5.250M (Career 0.64 points per game)
Ryan O'Reilly @ $5.000M (Career 0.47 points per game)

Extrapolating those works out to $0.109M per point. Given that, Malkin's career 1.22 points per game would cost $10.880M. Crosby's 1.41 points per game should be him at a max contract, which is more than $4-million more than his $8.7-million cap hit.

Desharnais @ $3.500M may be the most reasonable forward contract extension so far.



Looking at what Letang could get, there's been

(D) Kimmo Timonen @ $6.000M
(D) Oliver Ekman-Larsson @ $5.500M
(D) Alex Edler @ $5.000M

Some more reasonable defensemen would be Visnovsky ($4.500M) and Smid ($3.500M). I disregarded Subban's deal completelt because that was, frankly, highway robbery.


So regardless of the cap dropping, it's entirely possible that Malkin gets $10+M per year and Letang gets $5+M per year.

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04-09-2013, 01:37 PM
  #316
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Originally Posted by Til the End of Time View Post
honest question, what has letang done to warrant huge money and/or possibly shipping malkin out?
He's garnered the "if he was healthy he'd be a Norris front-runner" attention last year and this year. Unfortunately, that buzz alone drives the price up.

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04-09-2013, 01:40 PM
  #317
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Originally Posted by PantherDigest View Post
Amen. I think Despres will make Letang's loss insignificant in the long term.

Plus reverse their argument:

Look at what we could get for Letang in a trade. Why is a #1 center that happens to be top 3 in game something we can trade for depth, but not a #1 defensemen?
Because you're not going to get that much in return for Letang. You might get a top 6 forward, a prospect and/or depth defenseman, and a pick. You're just shifting the cap hit instead of spreading it out.

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04-09-2013, 01:43 PM
  #318
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Originally Posted by Shady Machine View Post
Why are you assuming it will only be $3.3billion next year? I would argue it's likely to be higher. The lockout hasn't seemed to hurt revenue much from what I've read. So let's take your projections and just adjust them back a year. For the 2014-2015 season, the cap will then be $66.3. That would be the first year or Geno and Letang's new contracts. So you have:

Kunitz or equiv (3.75) - Crosby (8.7) - Iginla (5)
Bennett (0.9) - Malkin (9.5) - Neal (5)
Cooke or equiv (1.8) - Sutter (3) - 3rd line dude (1.5)
4 Cheap ass vets or rookies (3.2)

Martin (5) - Harrington (0.9)
Despres (1.5) - Letang (6.5)
Bortuzzo (.9) - Murray (2.3)
Dumo (0.9)

Fleury (5)
Backup (1)

If my math is correct, that is 66.3. Obviously, that's really tight and I made some assumptions, but it's definitely possible. I think it's more likely that Martin would be gone to free up more space.
You're not going to get a Kunitz (or equivalent) at $3.5-million a year when teams are giving 50-60 point guys upwards of $6-million a year.

I guess I could rephrase my argument a different way: due to the lack of options to promote within, the Pens will be forced to tap the UFA market for top-6 forwards which means they're going to have to overpay.

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04-09-2013, 01:43 PM
  #319
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Originally Posted by radapex View Post
So regardless of the cap dropping, it's entirely possible that Malkin gets $10+M per year and Letang gets $5+M per year.
Letang may very well want $6.5mil+/yr.


Quote:
He's a complementary player. He's not a Lidstrom, not a Doughty. Not even a Martin imo.
Sorry, but that's just wrong. I won't consider putting him in a class with Lidstrom until his career is over, but saying he's nothing close to Doughty and worse than Martin is completely insane. He's top 5 in this league, easily.

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04-09-2013, 01:44 PM
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He's garnered the "if he was healthy he'd be a Norris front-runner" attention last year and this year. Unfortunately, that buzz alone drives the price up.
Yeap Green for example is made of glass but got an extension last year just for that one high-points season, although he has been better this year.

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04-09-2013, 01:44 PM
  #321
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lets remember that malkin has a no trade/movement clause, so ultimately he decides where to go and if he did leave he'd wanna go to a good team. No "good" team would blow up there roster for a pending free agent. so all in all malkin won't be traded (i'd rather move letang anyways if we had to)

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04-09-2013, 01:44 PM
  #322
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Originally Posted by radapex View Post
Because you're not going to get that much in return for Letang. You might get a top 6 forward, a prospect and/or depth defenseman, and a pick. You're just shifting the cap hit instead of spreading it out.
Well, yeah. There's a reason for that.

Edit: I hate that this thread has turned into one of those "crap on player A to make player B look better" threads. We should be happy both of these guys are on our team.

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04-09-2013, 01:47 PM
  #323
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Originally Posted by radapex View Post
Because you're not going to get that much in return for Letang. You might get a top 6 forward, a prospect and/or depth defenseman, and a pick. You're just shifting the cap hit instead of spreading it out.
Why wouldn't you get much in return for Letang? Top 10 dmen aren't traded very often. You would absolutely get a very good return for him. In the even he had to be traded, we would be okay to take a top 4 roster dman on a lesser cap hit, top 6 forward prospect, and a 1st round pick (for example). Despres, Martin, and Nisky can fill in to replace him by committee and Pouliot will be 2 more years off after we trade him. Losing him would hurt, but not nearly as much as Malkin.

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04-09-2013, 01:47 PM
  #324
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Originally Posted by Dying Alive View Post
Well, yeah. There's a reason for that.

Edit: I hate that this thread has turned into one of those "crap on player A to make player B" look better. We should be happy both of these guys are on our team.
Yup, and there's a reason my argument is and has been almost strictly cap-related. I recognize and appreciate Malkin and Letang for the talents that they are, but I'm a believer in the idea that you need depth to win a cup and you simply can't have depth when you spend 2/3 of your cap payroll on 5 or 6 guys.

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04-09-2013, 01:50 PM
  #325
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Originally Posted by Shady Machine View Post
Why wouldn't you get much in return for Letang? Top 10 dmen aren't traded very often. You would absolutely get a very good return for him. In the even he had to be traded, we would be okay to take a top 4 roster dman on a lesser cap hit, top 6 forward prospect, and a 1st round pick (for example). Despres, Martin, and Nisky can fill in to replace him by committee and Pouliot will be 2 more years off after we trade him. Losing him would hurt, but not nearly as much as Malkin.
1/3 of the teams in the league have a defensemen (or maybe two) they'd put ahead of him, which diminishes his value slightly, but the bigger reason is because the high-end defenseman market has been targeting free agency rather than trades.

Teams would rather throw $7- or $8-million at a Weber or Suter in free agency than give up the assets to acquire them via trade. Letang would be in a similar situation, so the only way someone's going to trade for him is through underpayment.

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