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Old
04-09-2013, 08:25 AM
  #51
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Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
The point is not to view our Corsi as a "consolation." It's simply to understand the performance of our team better.
I think we can glean the Ďperformance of the teamí based on watching the games and looking at the standings.

we need to score more goals. thatís pretty much it. but, for the threadís sake, Iíll throw in some stats. 38.7%. &. umÖ.#. square root.

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04-09-2013, 08:37 AM
  #52
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So we're a good team, but we suck. Yay?

I guess I'd rather be a crappy team, but dominate, like Anaheim (25th Corsi, 2nd best record in the league).

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04-09-2013, 08:40 AM
  #53
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Originally Posted by MartyOwns View Post
I think we can glean the ‘performance of the team’ based on watching the games and looking at the standings.
Can you?

Based on the majority of the comments I've seen on this board over the last several days, I suspect that most people can't.

Most people haven't fully comprehended that the only real difference between our record last season and this season is the shootout.

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04-09-2013, 08:41 AM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Luke3026 View Post
So we're a good team, but we suck. Yay?

I guess I'd rather be a crappy team, but dominate, like Anaheim (25th Corsi, 2nd best record in the league).
We're a good team who has faced a lot of bad luck this season.

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04-09-2013, 08:44 AM
  #55
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Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
We're a good team who has faced a lot of bad luck this season.
That's the difference in perspective though, some people don't believe there is luck in a game. They feel that's an excuse for when some stats don't line up with goals for and against.

When the Devils had Rask stop 40 shots, that wasn't bad luck, it was the Devils being bad, even though most goalies will let in 1 or 2 iffy goals and not make 1 or 2 hard stops on 40 shots most nights, as an example.

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04-09-2013, 08:51 AM
  #56
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Look, most of us have played sports. Everyone can understand that in any given game there are bounces that don't go your way, shots that normally would have gone in, etc. You can outplay a team and not win. I've ended several games this season going "we should have won that damn game"

But at a certain point it starts becoming more of a trend than bad luck. For example, when your team has lost 7 in a row, outshooting their opponent in 5 of them (sometimes badly outshooting)

The Devils were a middle of the pack team offensively last year, and then lost 2 of our top 6 forwards. And replaced them with crap. One of them being a regular 30-40 goal scorer. They still regularly pin opponents into their zone, take lots of shots, and give up not too many shots...but don't score freakin goals. Through all of that, we're supposed to write off not being able to score goals as "bad luck"?

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04-09-2013, 08:57 AM
  #57
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Originally Posted by DontPass2Clarkson View Post
Through all of that, we're supposed to write off not being able to score goals as "bad luck"?
It's not like the Devils need to have scored an enormous amount more goals to look much different in the standings. You only need to sprinkle 4 or 5 more goals, instead of posts, in the right games this season and all of a sudden the Devils are looking comfortably in the playoffs.

So I wouldn't say the Devils are a great offensive team that only bad luck is holding back their huge goal scoring. I would say that the Devils are scoring even less than the low amount they should have, due to some bad luck.

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04-09-2013, 09:03 AM
  #58
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Originally Posted by DontPass2Clarkson View Post
Look, most of us have played sports. Everyone can understand that in any given game there are bounces that don't go your way, shots that normally would have gone in, etc. You can outplay a team and not win. I've ended several games this season going "we should have won that damn game"

But at a certain point it starts becoming more of a trend than bad luck. For example, when your team has lost 7 in a row, outshooting their opponent in 5 of them (sometimes badly outshooting)

The Devils were a middle of the pack team offensively last year, and then lost 2 of our top 6 forwards. And replaced them with crap. One of them being a regular 30-40 goal scorer. They still regularly pin opponents into their zone, take lots of shots, and give up not too many shots...but don't score freakin goals. Through all of that, we're supposed to write off not being able to score goals as "bad luck"?
You don't have a large enough sample to draw definitive conclusions. Sorry, but it's true. That's not to say you're wrong, just that some caution is probably required before assailing different aspects of the team.

Additionally, and I might be beating a dead horse here, the main difference between our record last year and our record this year is shootout performance. The majority of people on here aren't talking about shootout performance when they speak about how our team is worse off than last year, even though that's the primary reason.

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04-09-2013, 09:08 AM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Devils731 View Post
It's not like the Devils need to have scored an enormous amount more goals to look much different in the standings. You only need to sprinkle 4 or 5 more goals, instead of posts, in the right games this season and all of a sudden the Devils are looking comfortably in the playoffs.

So I wouldn't say the Devils are a great offensive team that only bad luck is holding back their huge goal scoring. I would say that the Devils are scoring even less than the low amount they should have, due to some bad luck.
I think a fundamental issue is that sports fans live on unbridled enthusiasm at all times. When the team is piling up wins, that enthusiasm gets ensconced in the emotional high that winning brings. We're winning because of this, these players are playing great, what progression from this player, our system is good. The pendulum swings too far to one side. We love to bask in the positive aspects of the team when the team is winning.

But when losses pile up, that enthusiasm is still there, but now it gets channeled into thinking about every single reason why the team is losing, how the players aren't playing up to par, how the system and line combinations can be improved, etc. That enthusiasm is now channeled into another extreme - the overly negative.

Living on such emotional highs and lows leaves no room for the consideration of luck as an instrument that affects the outcome of the game. It's difficult to see how the game is actually won at the margins when someone is so inextricably tied to the absolute outcome - a win or a loss. So, as a result, it's difficult to see that a couple goals here and there, a couple shootout victories here and there, would dramatically alter the perception that many fans have of this team.

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04-09-2013, 11:49 AM
  #60
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Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
Can you?
yes. we cant put the puck in the net, therefore we suck.

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04-09-2013, 02:23 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by DontPass2Clarkson View Post
Look, most of us have played sports. Everyone can understand that in any given game there are bounces that don't go your way, shots that normally would have gone in, etc. You can outplay a team and not win. I've ended several games this season going "we should have won that damn game"

But at a certain point it starts becoming more of a trend than bad luck. For example, when your team has lost 7 in a row, outshooting their opponent in 5 of them (sometimes badly outshooting)

The Devils were a middle of the pack team offensively last year, and then lost 2 of our top 6 forwards. And replaced them with crap. One of them being a regular 30-40 goal scorer. They still regularly pin opponents into their zone, take lots of shots, and give up not too many shots...but don't score freakin goals. Through all of that, we're supposed to write off not being able to score goals as "bad luck"?
You are missing a lot of context in comparing this current roster to last year's. If you want to compare to last year's playoff team, then yes, we are missing some firepower. But the regular season...we had no Zajac for the entire time (and he wound up producing well for us in the playoffs). No depth scoring until Poni came on board. Until the last weak of the season, CBGB did not exist and Carter/Bernier were playing on the 3rd line most nights. We had no 4th line scoring ability at all. And the only D-man contributing offense was Foster, who caused as many goals against as he did for; until Zidlicky was traded here close to the deadline.

Sykora contributed almost nothing in the playoffs and was replaced by Josefson, successfully. It is not a stretch to think that a full season of Zidlicky, Zajac, and CBGB producing, along with some depth additions through trade and idea that Josefson could continue progressing, could make up for lost goal production.

Our fans insist that there is something fundamentally wrong with the team when in fact it's a good team that is underachieving.

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04-09-2013, 02:44 PM
  #62
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Originally Posted by guitarguyvic View Post
You are missing a lot of context in comparing this current roster to last year's. If you want to compare to last year's playoff team, then yes, we are missing some firepower. But the regular season...we had no Zajac for the entire time (and he wound up producing well for us in the playoffs). No depth scoring until Poni came on board. Until the last weak of the season, CBGB did not exist and Carter/Bernier were playing on the 3rd line most nights. We had no 4th line scoring ability at all. And the only D-man contributing offense was Foster, who caused as many goals against as he did for; until Zidlicky was traded here close to the deadline.

Sykora contributed almost nothing in the playoffs and was replaced by Josefson, successfully. It is not a stretch to think that a full season of Zidlicky, Zajac, and CBGB producing, along with some depth additions through trade and idea that Josefson could continue progressing, could make up for lost goal production.

Our fans insist that there is something fundamentally wrong with the team when in fact it's a good team that is underachieving.
Zajac - So...we didn't have him producing in the regular season last year, and we don't have him producing this year. No change.

Sykora - Replaced with Josefson? He of 1 damn assist all season?

Poni - Was scoring fairly well for a 3rd liner last season. Useless this season.

I'm not arguing about Lou's make-up of this team. I'm not saying there wasn't reason to hope a full season of Zajac, and the progression of prospects would help off set the loss of key offensive players.

All I'm saying is...it hasn't. And that's why we can't score goals. Not "bad luck". The team is filled with guys who are great at grinding stuff out, but they don't have much top end puck skill. Despite what some stats-lovers say, not all shots are created equal. If a higher percentage of your shots are ****** Clarkson-esque shots, you'll score less on average than other teams.


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04-09-2013, 02:48 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by DontPass2Clarkson View Post
Zajac - So...we didn't have him producing in the regular season last year, and that hasn't changed this year. No change.

Sykora - Replaced with Josefson? He of 1 damn assist all season?

Poni - Was scoring fairly well for a 3rd liner last season. Useless this season.

I'm not arguing about Lou's make-up of this team. I'm not saying there wasn't reason to hope a full season of Zajac, and the progression of prospects would help off set the loss of key offensive players.

All I'm saying is...it hasn't. And that's why we can't score goals. Not "bad luck". The team is filled with guys who are great at grinding stuff out, but they don't have much top end puck skill. Despite what some stats-lovers say, not all shots are created equal. If a higher percentage of your shots are ****** Clarkson-esque shots, you'll score less on average than other teams.
Agreed completely. Not all shots are created equal and let's be serious here for a minute. Watching the game, and not the stats can we really say the last few goalies we've faced looked like Hasek? Aside from Rask then no we can't. If anything Reimer should have had a shutout the other night, but let in a weak softy to Clarkson. Some people who really nitpick might also get on Miller for giving up that shorty to Fayne too, although it was in the slot and I can't really blame him.

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04-09-2013, 03:00 PM
  #64
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At roughly this same time of the season last year, the LA Kings stood in 9th place; ranked 29th in the league in goal scoring, and 22nd in PP%. This is what their forwards looked like:

Dustin Brown-Anze Kopitar-Justin Williams
Dwight King-Mike Richards-Jeff Carter
Dustin Penner-Jarret Stoll-Trevor Lewis
Kyle Clifford-Colin Fraser-Jordan Nolan

On top of that, they had blueliners that could contribute offensively. Yet they couldn't score if their lives depended on it. (And before anyone claims it was the coaching, they still couldn't score even after the coaching change and finished 28th overall).

This year, that nearly identical group is now 8th in the league in scoring, and 10th in PP efficiency.

How do you explain that? Pretend for a moment that Quick didn't steal a few games for them last year...they would have missed the playoffs. Do you think this forward group would need to be "blown up"? Do you think the GM should have known that they would be incapable of scoring consistently? Would you think they didn't have enough offensive talent?

I'm not trying to say that the Devils are last year's Kings. Just pointing out that sometimes **** happens, and even good players/teams don't do well, for whatever reason.

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04-09-2013, 03:03 PM
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Agreed completely. Not all shots are created equal and let's be serious here for a minute. Watching the game, and not the stats can we really say the last few goalies we've faced looked like Hasek? Aside from Rask then no we can't. If anything Reimer should have had a shutout the other night, but let in a weak softy to Clarkson. Some people who really nitpick might also get on Miller for giving up that shorty to Fayne too, although it was in the slot and I can't really blame him.
OK throw out the stats then. Going with the "eyetest"...I see a team that dominates possession, gets shots through to the goalies from various parts of the ice, and gets a decent amount of scoring chances (often times more than the oppossing team), yet simply can't cash in for the goals.

It really is that simple. The team is not as bad has the recent record indicates, and certainly not as bad as posters insist they are.

What other team do you see in the league dominating like we do without the goals to show for it? You don't see any others because it's extremely rare. 90% of the time, teams that dominate the puck dominate the scoreboard too. Just hasn't worked out so far this year.

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04-09-2013, 03:14 PM
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OK throw out the stats then. Going with the "eyetest"...I see a team that dominates possession, gets shots through to the goalies from various parts of the ice, and gets a decent amount of scoring chances (often times more than the oppossing team), yet simply can't cash in for the goals.

It really is that simple. The team is not as bad has the recent record indicates, and certainly not as bad as posters insist they are.

What other team do you see in the league dominating like we do without the goals to show for it? You don't see any others because it's extremely rare. 90% of the time, teams that dominate the puck dominate the scoreboard too. Just hasn't worked out so far this year.
So what's your take on why we're dominating and not scoring? Because the goalies are playing like Hasek against us, but like Toskala against everybody else?

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04-09-2013, 03:20 PM
  #67
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So what's your take on why we're dominating and not scoring? Because the goalies are playing like Hasek against us, but like Toskala against everybody else?
Other goalies aren't screwing up as often against the Devils as against the other teams. 1 bad goal allowed is the same as 1 great save not made. If they let in one less bad goal and make 1 more good save, then things get even more dramatic, without the goalie looking like he's playing that much different.

Devils have hit an enormous number of posts in a ten game stretch starting a few back. Those all are good chances that would often normally go in.

Devils aren't executing as they normally would. Even homerun hitters in baseball go through stretches where they keep popping up hanging sliders over the middle. The Devils are just doing it en masse, minus Loktionov who is doing the opposite.

So I think a combination of all 3 things have really hurt the Devils goal scoring numbers recently, even though their actually on ice play had started to improve a lot.

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04-09-2013, 03:23 PM
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So what's your take on why we're dominating and not scoring? Because the goalies are playing like Hasek against us, but like Toskala against everybody else?
It could be any number of things. Bad luck. Goalie being sharp. Shooters are not picking their spots like they normally would, which could be from lack of confidence of gripping the stick. Forwards are not mentally sharp and are not positioning themselves appropriately to get to rebounds.

At the end of the day, it comes down to underachieving. It's the story of the season. If you think that these guys are playing to their ability, you are basically saying (based on the stats so far this season) that the likes of Elias, Zajac, Henrique, and Zubrus are all 3rd line players, because they are only producing at 3rd liner pace. Do you really believe that?

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04-09-2013, 03:23 PM
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Other goalies aren't screwing up as often against the Devils as against the other teams. 1 bad goal allowed is the same as 1 great save not made. If they let in one less bad goal and make 1 more good save, then things get even more dramatic, without the goalie looking like he's playing that much different.

Devils have hit an enormous number of posts in a ten game stretch starting a few back. Those all are good chances that would often normally go in.

Devils aren't executing as they normally would. Even homerun hitters in baseball go through stretches where they keep popping up hanging sliders over the middle. The Devils are just doing it en masse, minus Loktionov who is doing the opposite.

So I think a combination of all 3 things have really hurt the Devils goal scoring numbers recently, even though their actually on ice play had started to improve a lot.
Just imagine how bad our shooting percentage would be if Reimer makes that save on Clarkson which by all means he should have. Or if Miller somehow makes that save on Fayne shorthanded. The post hits though yeah I agree. I've honestly never seen a team hit so many posts.

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04-09-2013, 03:26 PM
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It could be any number of things. Bad luck. Goalie being sharp. Shooters are not picking their spots like they normally would, which could be from lack of confidence of gripping the stick. Forwards are not mentally sharp and are not positioning themselves appropriately to get to rebounds.

At the end of the day, it comes down to underachieving. It's the story of the season. If you think that these guys are playing to their ability, you are basically saying (based on the stats so far this season) that the likes of Elias, Zajac, Henrique, and Zubrus are all 3rd line players, because they are only producing at 3rd liner pace. Do you really believe that?
I don't know what I believe when it comes to Zajac. He isn't very proven without Parise other than a short clip with Kovy. This season though their chemistry just hasn't been there. Elias isn't really producing like a 3rd liner. He leads the team in points, and has the closest thing to a point per game on the team though still not quite there. Henrique is on pace for 25 goals this season in 82 games, but not a whole lot of assists. He hasn't done much recently, but had an absurdly high shooting percentage early on. Zubrus hasn't played long enough to give us a good sample size, but Zubrus has pretty much been a point every other game pace player.

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04-09-2013, 03:29 PM
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Also, forgot to mention chemistry could be an issue. If there isn't a certain level of synergy between the forwards on the ice, then it doesn't matter how much talent you have you will probably have a hard time scoring. I mean, how many times have you seen a team constructed with all kinds of scoring talent, yet they suck collectively?

Short of sticking Crosby on the roster, there probably isn't any top 6 forward that would cure this team's lack of scoring right now.

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04-09-2013, 03:32 PM
  #72
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Also, forgot to mention chemistry could be an issue. If there isn't a certain level of synergy between the forwards on the ice, then it doesn't matter how much talent you have you will probably have a hard time scoring. I mean, how many times have you seen a team constructed with all kinds of scoring talent, yet they suck collectively?

Short of sticking Crosby on the roster, there probably isn't any top 6 forward that would cure this team's lack of scoring right now.
Getting Kovy back + having a top 6 guy I'm sure would make us much better. Not the highest scoring team in the league, but up to league average in the middle again like last year. And for the love of god no crap like Tedenbust again next year either. Hoping he goes to SEL so I don't have to worry about him getting a fourth chance.

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04-09-2013, 03:34 PM
  #73
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OK throw out the stats then. Going with the "eyetest"...I see a team that dominates possession, gets shots through to the goalies from various parts of the ice, and gets a decent amount of scoring chances (often times more than the oppossing team), yet simply can't cash in for the goals.

It really is that simple. The team is not as bad has the recent record indicates, and certainly not as bad as posters insist they are.

What other team do you see in the league dominating like we do without the goals to show for it? You don't see any others because it's extremely rare. 90% of the time, teams that dominate the puck dominate the scoreboard too. Just hasn't worked out so far this year.
I fully agree they aren't as bad as losing 7 in a row indicates. But, as far as puck possession and lots of shots not leading to goals....

Our top 6 includes a young player traded for a 5th rounder, an old man traded for a 7th rounder, and David Clarkson. That's not conducive to scoring goals.

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04-09-2013, 03:42 PM
  #74
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I fully agree they aren't as bad as losing 7 in a row indicates. But, as far as puck possession and lots of shots not leading to goals....

Our top 6 includes a young player traded for a 5th rounder, an old man traded for a 7th rounder, and David Clarkson. That's not conducive to scoring goals.
In 2010 we had Nick Palmieri, Tedenby, and a nearly retired declined Brian Rolston in our top 6. Doesn't sound conducive to scoring but they managed.

One of the teams we are chasing has this top 6 (and they are not missing anyone to injury):
Rick Nash Derek Stepan Ryan Callahan (C)
Mats Zuccarello Brad Richards (A) Ryane Clowe

Rick Nash is like their Kovy. Callahan produces but is no Gaborik. Richard is doing nothing this season. The rest are nothing special. On paper, I take our healthy top 6 over them. Yet they have produced more as a group...

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04-09-2013, 03:47 PM
  #75
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Tedenbust was actually good in 10-11 or at least for parts of it he was. Rolston's best run during his second stint with the Devils came during that time. Nick Palmieri well... you have a point there with him.

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