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Old
04-09-2013, 05:42 PM
  #76
Saugus
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
The point is not to view our Corsi as a "consolation." It's simply to understand the performance of our team better.
To me, Corsi is most valuable to explain why a good team that doesn't seem like it should be good, is. Or explaining why a bad team that should be good on paper, isn't.

When you get into "this team really is good by the numbers, but not on the scoreboard", that seems like excuse making to me. It's great that our Corsi is good, but I'd rather be winning.

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04-09-2013, 05:45 PM
  #77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saugus View Post
To me, Corsi is most valuable to explain why a good team that doesn't seem like it should be good, is. Or explaining why a bad team that should be good on paper, isn't.

When you get into "this team really is good by the numbers, but not on the scoreboard", that seems like excuse making to me. It's great that our Corsi is good, but I'd rather be winning.
Agreed. I'd also rather be watching the team with my eyes than sitting around on behind the net all day.

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04-10-2013, 07:55 AM
  #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saugus View Post
To me, Corsi is most valuable to explain why a good team that doesn't seem like it should be good, is. Or explaining why a bad team that should be good on paper, isn't.

When you get into "this team really is good by the numbers, but not on the scoreboard", that seems like excuse making to me. It's great that our Corsi is good, but I'd rather be winning.
Of course everyone would prefer winning.

The issue is that the tale of the scoreboard doesn't necessarily indicate who the better team is over small sample sizes. This has been proven over and over. It's perfectly natural to be upset when the team loses. But to assail every aspect of the team and irrationally criticize our GM, our coach, and our players out of hindsight is taking it a step further, which is what a lot of people on here do.

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Agreed. I'd also rather be watching the team with my eyes than sitting around on behind the net all day.
The two aren't mutually exclusive. I watch most games and still keep up to date with behindthenet, and lo and behold, the latter doesn't take me more than a couple minutes each day.

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04-10-2013, 08:32 AM
  #79
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you can't score just sitting behind the net. Everyone knows that.

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04-10-2013, 05:31 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by CerebralGenesis View Post
you can't score just sitting behind the net. Everyone knows that.
Unless your name is Gretzky. Then you can do whatever you want.

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04-10-2013, 07:14 PM
  #81
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Yeah looking at advanced stats is especially helpful when dealing with a short season. Knowing whether the team as a whole needs to be torn down or whether the usual tweaks and minor upgrades around a competitive core are possible is important.

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04-10-2013, 08:40 PM
  #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleedred View Post
Agreed completely. Not all shots are created equal and let's be serious here for a minute. Watching the game, and not the stats can we really say the last few goalies we've faced looked like Hasek? Aside from Rask then no we can't. If anything Reimer should have had a shutout the other night, but let in a weak softy to Clarkson. Some people who really nitpick might also get on Miller for giving up that shorty to Fayne too, although it was in the slot and I can't really blame him.
I agree not all shots are created equal, but a difference between teams that are considered to be "on" and teams that are cold tends to be how often the harmless shots turn into scoring chances.

Teams whose offense is clicking on all cylinders aren't making highlight-reel plays on every goal. There are low-percentage point shots that hit a body or stick along the way and bounce right to a waiting stick. There are deflections off opposing defenders and bounces in the defensive and neutral zone that lead to odd-man rushes the other way. There's work that needs to be done to turn those chances into goals, but random chance doesn't usually get enough credit for how teams are performing offensively. No one can argue that the Devils are shooting as well as they could (or should) be right now, but that doesn't mean that taking the low percentage shots suddenly becomes a bad idea.

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Originally Posted by MasterofGrond View Post
Yeah looking at advanced stats is especially helpful when dealing with a short season. Knowing whether the team as a whole needs to be torn down or whether the usual tweaks and minor upgrades around a competitive core are possible is important.
Exactly this. The point of advanced analysis is trying to determine what exactly is wrong with the team. There's a difference between a team that could use some improvement and a team that needs to be rebuilt. The Devils are most definitely the former.

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04-11-2013, 08:12 AM
  #83
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Another game where the Devils' goaltending blows it, but I suspect most people will criticize the makeup of the entire team.

5 goals on 18 shots. Ouch.

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04-11-2013, 08:29 AM
  #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
Another game where the Devils' goaltending blows it, but I suspect most people will criticize the makeup of the entire team.

5 goals on 18 shots. Ouch.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richer's Ghost View Post
1st goal ES - Marty stops the original shot. Rebound stuffed in with weak net coverage by Zajac. Comedy of errors from 4 Devils in the zone without their heads.
2nd goal SH - Forwards playing D. Again original shot stopped, rebound tapped in mid-air on lazy stick check by Sullivan.
3rd goal SH - Screened deflection 6 feet in front of Marty that changed path at least 2 feet to his right. Original shot path he had covered even though he couldn't see it through Zidlicky's ass.

Clearly the stats don't lie. Marty's fault - team played fine.

Stopped 16 of 18 with that total crapfest of a 1st period not playing out. 2 goals against was plenty good to win this game when the team finally started playing.
#Stuckon666

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04-11-2013, 08:33 AM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
Another game where the Devils' goaltending blows it, but I suspect most people will criticize the makeup of the entire team.

5 goals on 18 shots. Ouch.
Stats are the only thing that matters, forget how the goals actually played out...cuz, ya know, every shot is created equal and stuff.

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04-11-2013, 08:55 AM
  #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DontPass2Clarkson View Post
Stats are the only thing that matters, forget how the goals actually played out...cuz, ya know, every shot is created equal and stuff.
The Devils botched the first ten minutes, but NHL goaltenders need to bail their team out from time to time.

A 72.2% save percentage is not acceptable.

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04-11-2013, 09:34 AM
  #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eggers View Post
Exactly this. The point of advanced analysis is trying to determine what exactly is wrong with the team. There's a difference between a team that could use some improvement and a team that needs to be rebuilt. The Devils are most definitely the former.
I got an advanced stat for you. we need to score more goals. hows that?

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04-11-2013, 09:35 AM
  #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
The Devils botched the first ten minutes, but NHL goaltenders need to bail their team out from time to time.

A 72.2% save percentage is not acceptable.
this is a very Simple Jack way of looking at things. theres a reason PDB didnt yank marty last night, and it had nothing to do with Kinkaid

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04-11-2013, 09:38 AM
  #89
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Originally Posted by MartyOwns View Post
I got an advanced stat for you. we need to score more goals. hows that?
They scored 4 goals. It's not insane to ask your goaltender to give up less than that.

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04-11-2013, 10:00 AM
  #90
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Originally Posted by MadDevil View Post
They scored 4 goals. It's not insane to ask your goaltender to give up less than that.
oh sorry, I thought we were talking about our ‘big picture’ problems. if youre going to look at one game and declare we score plenty of goals and that’s not the problem, carry on. if anybody was wondering why I think all this stats nonsense is 85% bullspit, that’s it in a nutshell

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04-11-2013, 10:04 AM
  #91
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Originally Posted by MartyOwns View Post
oh sorry, I thought we were talking about our ‘big picture’ problems. if youre going to look at one game and declare we score plenty of goals and that’s not the problem, carry on. if anybody was wondering why I think all this stats nonsense is 85% bullspit, that’s it in a nutshell
Sorry, I misread your post. I thought you were talking about this game. Big picture, yes offense is a problem.

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04-11-2013, 12:04 PM
  #92
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Seriously we need goaltending. Badly.

Being happy with sub .910 over a 3 year period is laughable.

I love Marty but ****.

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04-11-2013, 12:08 PM
  #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MartyOwns View Post
oh sorry, I thought we were talking about our ‘big picture’ problems. if youre going to look at one game and declare we score plenty of goals and that’s not the problem, carry on. if anybody was wondering why I think all this stats nonsense is 85% bullspit, that’s it in a nutshell
You're the one missing the big picture. Brodeur has been bad for three straight years. In any given game, you can look to make excuses for him based on how this defender did this, this forward turned the puck over. But we have three straight seasons of Brodeur being bad. Hard to refute that with "defensive breakdowns", especially when the 11-12 team went to the cup.

A good goaltender would have stopped one or two of the pucks Brodeur let in last night, and way less people on here would be crapping on our team.

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04-11-2013, 12:13 PM
  #94
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Forwards suck and can't score --> They're just "unlucky"

Devils give up too many goals --> Brodeur isn't good enough

Got it.

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04-11-2013, 12:15 PM
  #95
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DontPass2Clarkson View Post
Forwards suck and can't score --> They're just "unlucky"

Devils give up too many goals --> Broduer isn't good enough

Got it.
I've said Brodeur sucks for a while now. You can't really argue otherwise with three straight seasons of well below average play.

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04-11-2013, 12:32 PM
  #96
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DontPass2Clarkson View Post
Forwards suck and can't score --> They're just "unlucky"

Devils give up too many goals --> Brodeur isn't good enough

Got it.
Sample sizes, sample sizes, sample sizes.

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04-11-2013, 12:53 PM
  #97
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Context, context, context.

Devils do a very good job of limiting shots overall. We have a system in place with forwards that are good at keeping the puck in the other teams end. We also have mostly hard working back-checkers and are good at keeping the opponent to the outside in the defensive end.

But we do have a pretty mediocre group of defenseman. Blown assignments, weak net-front presence, mind-boggling turn overs right in front of the net. Which, I would guess, leads to a higher ratio of scoring chances to shots. Not saying we necessarily give up more scoring chances/game than most teams, it's probably roughly even. But we do give up less shots than most teams, which would lead to a higher ratio.

But, as we all know, all shots are created equal and have an equal percentage chance of being stopped.

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04-11-2013, 12:58 PM
  #98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DontPass2Clarkson View Post
Context, context, context.

Devils do a very good job of limiting shots overall. We have a system in place with forwards that are good at keeping the puck in the other teams end. We also have mostly hard working back-checkers and are good at keeping the opponent to the outside in the defensive end.

But we do have a pretty mediocre group of defenseman. Blown assignments, weak net-front presence, mind-boggling turn overs right in front of the net. Which, I would guess, leads to a higher ratio of scoring chances to shots. Not saying we necessarily give up more scoring chances/game than most teams, it's probably roughly even. But we do give up less shots than most teams, which would lead to a higher ratio.

But, as we all know, all shots are created equal and have an equal percentage chance of being stopped.
Why do you keep uttering the last comment? No one ever said that. Obviously shots closer to the net have a higher chance of going in.

I don't believe we give up a super high ratio of scoring chances to shots. Maybe a bit higher than other teams, but not by much.

All the evidence points to shot quality being a small factor in determining good and bad teams. The best shooting team in the NHL over the last six years, the Pittsburgh Penguins, only had a 1.1% better even strength shooting percentage than the median. For a team that averages 29 shots per game, that's 26 goals over a full season, or close to one goal every three games. That obviously means something, but that's the best shooting team in the NHL. The vast majority of teams are only plus or minus five to ten goals because of their shooting skill.

Shot quality exists, but it isn't nearly as influential as most of you like to think.

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04-11-2013, 12:59 PM
  #99
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I'll say what I mentioned in the other thread. In Marty's prime, we would have never accepted the idea that the only reason for his success was the great D-men he had in front of him.

Now when his numbers have been below average for 3 straight seasons, we have no problem chalking up his decline to the below average D-men in front of him.

Seems hypocritical to me.

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04-11-2013, 01:01 PM
  #100
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Oh god please.

I don't want to do the shot quality argument.

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