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Best "half seasons"

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Old
01-08-2013, 12:33 AM
  #101
TAnnala
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I just want to clear up a thing.

Czech Your Math:

In your Art Ross rankings for each player, you removed the competition from US and Europe for every year?

Like for Ovechkin, he played in a league with only one Euro (himself) and the rest players were Canadians?

If that is the case, then the study is interesting but a bit misleading. How do we know the influence of team-mates? Too many factors to consider. But I agree that winning the scoring title was probably easier before the competition arrived from US and Europe.

Just not sure if this is a legit way to look at things. But then again, there is no perfect way. But if we take a look at the past from many different angles, it will give us a better picture when combining them.

Offensively speaking, there is many 90's players who gets a bit underrated due to the lack of hardware.

Was Kariya in his prime a player who you would think of being able to win the Ross? I would say yes. That is exactly what your study suggests.

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Old
01-08-2013, 05:07 AM
  #102
Czech Your Math
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TAnnala View Post
I just want to clear up a thing.

Czech Your Math:

In your Art Ross rankings for each player, you removed the competition from US and Europe for every year?

Like for Ovechkin, he played in a league with only one Euro (himself) and the rest players were Canadians?


If that is the case, then the study is interesting but a bit misleading. How do we know the influence of team-mates? Too many factors to consider. But I agree that winning the scoring title was probably easier before the competition arrived from US and Europe.

Just not sure if this is a legit way to look at things. But then again, there is no perfect way. But if we take a look at the past from many different angles, it will give us a better picture when combining them.

Offensively speaking, there is many 90's players who gets a bit underrated due to the lack of hardware.

Was Kariya in his prime a player who you would think of being able to win the Ross? I would say yes. That is exactly what your study suggests.
Yes, that's how I created this "bizarro" hockey universe (also remeoving Gretzky, Lemieux, Jagr). It's not the only way, perhaps not the best way, but a useful alternative way to look at things IMO.

Of course teammates is tricky. The main factors I quickly tried to consider were:

- did the player finish behind a non-Canadian teammate, and if so was it significantly behind?

- were they often linemates or did they just play together some on PP?

- did the player only hit such levels/rankings with this linemate or did they do so at other times as well?

It's difficult to balance simplicity and fairness. Kariya's a particularly tough one, because he played with an elite non-Canadian and didn't hit those heights without him, yet the linemate was neither clearly superior/inferior to him.

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04-09-2013, 11:55 PM
  #103
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rowdy Roddy Peeper View Post
Thanks for the explanation, and sorry for the lateness of my reply here.

Correct me if I'm misinterpreting the numbers, but wouldn't they suggest that Crosby's '11 ESGF/GA ratio and On/Off ratio were better than several of the names at the top of that list, including Lemieux and Jagr in '96?

If that's true, it wouldn't necessarily be the most accurate indicator of the best seasons, would it?
It's because Lemieux and Jagr played on separate lines.

When you have two players scoring at almost 2 PPG, and they're on separate lines, it's hard to bring up a stat like "GF On/Off" and show it in their favor ahead of another player who's scoring maybe 90-100 points while no other line on his team is producing significant offense.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
Messier- wins in '87 w/o Gretzky?... wins in '90... wins in '92 if Hull considered U.S.
Gilmour- if Messier doesn't win in '87, then he does (second in '94)
Yzerman- wins in '89 (second in '90 & '93)
Hull- wins in '91 & '92 (but technically born in U.S.)
Recchi- likely wins in '91 if Hull considered U.S. (as Oates drops down as well w/o Hull)... wins in '00
If we're pulling out Hull, and that causes Oates to drop down significantly as well, I'm going to offer this statement: Recchi and John Cullen would both have dropped behind Yzerman if you simply remove Lemieux.

Furthermore, in 1991-92 there would be a chain effect seeing Kevin Stevens and Luc Robitaille drop behind Yzerman/Roenick, and as we pulled Hull out in 91 we can justify it for 92 as well. Which makes Messier the winner with Yzerman/Roenick tied for second. But then there's Leetch's 102 points; if you completely remove Brian Leetch, how much does it pull on Messier? Is it at least five points? And Roenick loses Chelios.

This is before the consideration that in 1990-91 and in 1991-92 Yzerman's production was down compared to his other prime years due to Bryan Murray's style of lineup, using the Wings' three best forwards - Steve Yzerman, Sergei Fedorov, and Jimmy Carson - to center three separate "first lines" with mediocre wingers, rather than put Fedorov or Carson with each other or put one with Yzerman. The Carson trade in 1993 relieved the center logjam, and allowed Yzerman to "be Yzerman" again; he went on a scoring tear from the moment Carson was traded until the end of the season. Before the trade, Yzerman had playd all 53GP, and had scored 37-36-73; which projects to 56-54-110 in 80 games (such as the previous few seasons) or 59-57-116 in 84 (as he played that season). After the Carson trade, he played all 31GP, posting 21-43-64 - clearly superior numbers. The projections? For an 80 game season, 54-111-167; for an 84 game season, 57-117-174.

If you remove Fedorov from the 1990-92 Red Wings, the team is not as good but Yzerman puts up higher numbers. Possibly similar seasons to his 89-90 season when it was Yzerman/Carson with no Fedorov, which is also extremely close in GPG and APG to his 87-88 season. It's even possible that in a two-center world, Yzerman outscores Oates in 1992-93 (the gap was only five points) and wins the Ross there as well.

That would put Yzerman with the following finishes (assuming removal of US/Euro)

1989 - 1
1990 - 2
1991 - 1
1992 - 1
1993 - 1

And finally, Hull was born in Canada, and plays for the US internationally as he was born a dual citizen and spent his childhood in Chicago (and learning to play hockey, despite the popular myth that he learned in Canada) before moving to Winnipeg when his dad became a Jet.

So ultimately, the winner in 1991 and 1992 would be either Brett Hull or Steve Yzerman, depending on whether you include Hull. As your list suggests that you do not, I would then place Yzerman as the winner. If you include Hull, Yzerman is in second place.

Yzerman would also likely be considered by many the best center to ever play the game after scoring 177-207-384 in 223 games from 87-88 through 89-90.

Quote:
In '99, he was 5 points behind Kariya, who actually played on the same line as Selanne (unlike Sakic & Forsberg).
Sakic and Forsberg played together on the PP. It's one of the reasons Hartley tried them together at ES for a bit in the early 2000s.

Losing Forsberg could have no significant effect, or huge effect on Sakic. Remember though, Hejduk, Kamensky, Deadmarsh, and Drury are all ALSO gone. Also Ozolinsh. And Krupp. Pretty much all of the significant supporting case Sakic had in Colorado, gone. Except Mike Ricci. He's still around.

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Old
04-10-2013, 09:04 PM
  #104
Czech Your Math
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
Yzerman would also likely be considered by many the best center to ever play the game after scoring 177-207-384 in 223 games from 87-88 through 89-90.
First, I should have considered Hull as Canadian for the purposes of my "thought experiment." I've believe that's been corrected now.

Yzerman has a great peak/prime ~'88-'93. He's closer to Lemieux & Gretzky during that stretch than anyone is to him (and those guys were in their primes, although Lemieux was of course hurt a lot, and Gretzky was mostly past his peak).

Maybe he would have placed higher (even second behind Hull) in an "all-Canadian" world in '92. If so, that would give him a 1st and three 2nds. If not, a 1st and two 2nds. So he probably would have had at least three top 2 finishes, perhaps as many as 5 (although more than 4 seems a bit of a stretch). We can also filter based on adjusted points in a player's best 3-5 seasons. This would give us a group something like this:

Ovechkin
Crosby
Malkin
Thornton
Forsberg
Selanne
Sakic
Yzerman
Dionne

That's the group to which Yzerman belongs in terms of prime production.

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Old
11-19-2013, 12:55 PM
  #105
Fred Taylor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
I compiled some of the best "half seasons" in recent memory from game logs at HR.com. I did these rather quickly in my head, so there are likely mistakes or omissions. Feel free to correct such.

Some of the best 41+ game streaks from 1994-2012:
#PlayerYearGmsGAPtsPPG
1 Lemieux 1996 41 45 64 109 2.66
2 Jagr 1996 42 36 51 87 2.07
3 Francis 1996 41 20 57 77 1.88
4 Lemieux 1997 41 31 46 77 1.88
5 Gretzky 1994 46 22 64 86 1.87
6 Jagr 2001 45 33 51 84 1.87
7 Crosby 2007 42 23 53 76 1.81
8 Jagr 2000 41 33 40 73 1.78
9 Lemieux 2001 43 35 41 76 1.77
10 Fedorov 1994 42 32 42 74 1.76
11 Lindros 1997 43 29 44 73 1.70
12 Lemieux 2003 43 20 53 73 1.70
13 Ovechkin 2010 52 42 46 88 1.69
14 Thornton 2006 44 17 57 74 1.68
15 Selanne 1999 41 31 37 68 1.66
16 Bure 1994 43 43 28 71 1.65
17 Forsberg 2003 45 20 54 74 1.64
18 Jagr 1997 44 41 31 72 1.64
19 Jagr 1999 52 27 58 85 1.63
20 Lindros 1995 42 28 40 68 1.62
21 Lindros 1996 47 36 40 76 1.62
22 Crosby 2011 41 32 34 66 1.61
23 Ovechkin 2008 41 36 30 66 1.61
24 Lindros 1999 41 25 41 66 1.61
25 Kovalchuk 2006 41 34 32 66 1.61
26 Thornton 2007 51 14 68 82 1.61
27 Alfredsson 2006 44 32 38 70 1.59
28 Neely 1994 44 50 20 70 1.59
29 Jagr 2006 44 30 40 70 1.59
30 Sakic 2001 62 44 54 98 1.58
31 Malkin 2009 42 17 49 66 1.57
32 Selanne 1996 42 22 44 66 1.57
33 Fedorov 1996 41 23 41 64 1.56
34 Kariya 1997 43 28 39 67 1.56
35 Lindros 1994 51 36 43 79 1.55
36 Malkin 2008 42 33 32 65 1.55
37 Jagr 1998 41 22 41 63 1.54
38 Malkin 2012 41 33 31 63 1.54
39 Crosby 2010 55 39 45 84 1.53
40 Alfredsson 2008 42 29 35 64 1.52
41 Selanne 1997 42 32 32 64 1.52
42 Ovechkin 2009 66 53 47 100 1.52
43 Forsberg 1996 41 16 46 62 1.51
44 Sakic 1996 41 23 39 62 1.51
45 SedinH 2010 41 13 49 62 1.51
46 Yzerman 1994 41 19 43 62 1.51
47 LeClair 1997 46 34 35 69 1.50
48 Ovechkin 2006 44 32 34 66 1.50
49 Iginla 2007 47 28 42 70 1.49
50 Oates 1994 43 19 45 64 1.49
51 Forsberg 2006 41 15 46 61 1.49
52 Gretzky 1996 41 12 49 61 1.49
53 Thornton 2003 41 26 35 61 1.49
54 St. Louis 2007 41 28 33 61 1.49
55 Jagr 1995 41 28 33 61 1.49
56 LeClair 1999 42 29 33 62 1.48
57 Forsberg 2001 41 15 45 60 1.46
58 Stamkos 2010 42 30 28 58 1.45
59 Bure 2001 41 38 21 59 1.44
60 Sakic 2000 42 22 38 60 1.43
61 Gretzky 1997 41 16 42 58 1.41
62 Bure 2000 46 40 25 65 1.41
63 Elias 2001 41 24 33 57 1.39
64 Forsberg 1998 41 16 39 55 1.34
65 Forsberg 2004 41 18 37 55 1.34
66 Forsberg 1999 44 15 43 58 1.32
67 Gretzky 1998 41 12 42 54 1.32
68 Forsberg 2001 66 27 59 86 1.30
Are these streaks all streaks from the start of the season? Or do these start at any point in the season?

Also, should that not be 39 games and 1.41 ppg for Forsberg in 2004?


Last edited by Fred Taylor: 11-25-2013 at 04:14 PM.
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Old
11-19-2013, 07:33 PM
  #106
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The list appears to calculate, from Bure's 1994 season, the streak between December 21, 1993 and March 28, 1994. If we were to calculate from December 21, 1993 straight to the end of the season (April 13, 1994), the streak would be 49 goals, 29 assists, 78 points in 51 games -- a much lower points per game percentage but more impressive in terms of goal scoring; one wonders how many goals he would have scored had he not been injured for two months between late October and December.

I think you are aiming to calculate his best point-scoring streak that season, so that 43-game stretch is appropriate. In April, he scored 5 goals and 1 assist in 7 games, a strong goal-scoring streak but barely a point per game pace.

Great work.


Last edited by JetsAlternate: 11-20-2013 at 03:46 AM.
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Old
11-25-2013, 04:12 PM
  #107
Fred Taylor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
Some of the best adjusted streaks from 1994-2012:

#PlayerYearGmsPPG
1 Lemieux 1996 41 2.54
2 Jagr 2001 45 2.01
3 Jagr 1996 42 1.98
4 Lemieux 1997 41 1.94
5 Jagr 2000 41 1.94
6 Lemieux 2001 43 1.90
7 Lemieux 2003 43 1.89
8 Selanne 1999 41 1.88
9 Jagr 1999 52 1.85
10 Forsberg 2003 45 1.83
11 Lindros 1999 41 1.82
12 Crosby 2007 42 1.82
13 Ovechkin 2010 52 1.80
14 Francis 1996 41 1.80
15 Lindros 1997 43 1.76
16 Jagr 1998 41 1.76
17 Ovechkin 2008 41 1.75
18 Crosby 2011 41 1.74
19 Gretzky 1994 46 1.74
20 Malkin 2012 41 1.73
21 Sakic 2001 62 1.70
22 Jagr 1997 44 1.69
23 Malkin 2008 42 1.68
24 LeClair 1999 42 1.67
25 Thornton 2003 41 1.66
26 Alfredsson 2008 42 1.65
27 Fedorov 1994 42 1.64
28 Lindros 1995 42 1.63
29 Crosby 2010 55 1.62
30 Thornton 2006 44 1.62
31 Kariya 1997 43 1.61
32 Thornton 2007 51 1.61
33 Malkin 2009 42 1.61
34 SedinH 2010 41 1.59
35 Selanne 1997 42 1.58
36 Forsberg 2001 41 1.57
37 Kovalchuk 2006 41 1.57
38 Ovechkin 2009 66 1.57
39 Bure 2001 41 1.56
40 Sakic 2000 42 1.55
41 LeClair 1997 46 1.55
42 Alfredsson 2006 44 1.55
43 Lindros 1996 47 1.55
44 Forsberg 2004 41 1.55
45 Jagr 2006 44 1.54
46 Bure 2000 46 1.54
47 Forsberg 1998 41 1.54
48 Bure 1994 43 1.53
49 St. Louis 2007 41 1.51
50 Gretzky 1998 41 1.51
51 Iginla 2007 47 1.51
52 Selanne 1996 42 1.50
53 Jagr 1995 41 1.50
54 Elias 2001 41 1.50
55 Fedorov 1996 41 1.49
56 Forsberg 1999 44 1.49
57 Neely 1994 44 1.47
58 Stamkos 2010 42 1.47
59 Gretzky 1997 41 1.47
60 Stamkos 2012 41 1.47
61 Selanne 1998 46 1.46
62 Ovechkin 2006 44 1.46
63 Forsberg 1996 41 1.45
64 Sakic 1996 41 1.45
65 Jagr 2002 41 1.44
66 Lindros 1994 51 1.44
67 Forsberg 2006 41 1.43
68 Gretzky 1996 41 1.42
69 Elias 2000 43 1.42
I don't get why you put down 41 games for Forsberg's 2004 season? It was 39. Seems as though the ppg you put down for him reflects that you added those two extra games. I also don't understand why this ranks so low amongst half seasons once adjusted, that was the lowest scoring season of the dead puck era.

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12-09-2013, 07:31 PM
  #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred Taylor View Post
Are these streaks all streaks from the start of the season? Or do these start at any point in the season?

Also, should that not be 39 games and 1.41 ppg for Forsberg in 2004?
The streaks you quoted are for any 41+ game stretch in a single season. I posted different lists from start of season (posts 3 & 4).

The minimum is 41 games, so if a player played < 41, he is given credit for 41.

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