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Old
04-08-2013, 07:54 PM
  #576
MacOfNiagara
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darcy Regier View Post
The thing is a top prospect probably won't do hole lot to improve Carolina , they are already extremly top heavy on forward.

If they get forth to they pick Barkov when they have Staal and Staal down the middle for the next eternity? Reading their boards they really want a Dman.
Seth Jones.

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04-08-2013, 07:56 PM
  #577
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Originally Posted by MacOfNiagara View Post
Seth Jones.
I guess, but they would REALLY need to keep on falling AND win the draft lottery

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04-08-2013, 07:57 PM
  #578
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Originally Posted by Darcy Regier View Post
I guess, but they would REALLY need to keep on falling AND win the draft lottery
They'll probably target Nurse and might be a candidate to flip spots with if Buffalo is only a few spots behind and wanted Barkov or Monahan

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Old
04-08-2013, 08:07 PM
  #579
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Originally Posted by Darcy Regier View Post
I guess, but they would REALLY need to keep on falling AND win the draft lottery
1 win in the last 12 is a pretty nice start.

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04-08-2013, 08:13 PM
  #580
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Originally Posted by Old Navy Goat View Post
They'll probably target Nurse and might be a candidate to flip spots with if Buffalo is only a few spots behind and wanted Barkov or Monahan
As dirty as it would feel, Id deal with the devil to get one of those two.

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04-09-2013, 03:17 AM
  #581
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I officially DGAF anymore, scum-bags piss away 2/3 of the season with half-assed efforts but now want to go all out when the pressure is off and wins are pointless? Yay...

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04-09-2013, 03:22 AM
  #582
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Originally Posted by SECRET SQUIRREL View Post
I officially DGAF anymore, scum-bags piss away 2/3 of the season with half-assed efforts but now want to go all out when the pressure is off and wins are pointless? Yay...
I sort of agree with what you're getting at, except for the IDGAF part.

I can't help it; I give mad ****'s. probably too many ****s. Not healthy.

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04-09-2013, 04:22 AM
  #583
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Originally Posted by Old Navy Goat View Post
They'll probably target Nurse and might be a candidate to flip spots with if Buffalo is only a few spots behind and wanted Barkov or Monahan
AS IF the Hurricanes and Sabres would trade.

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04-09-2013, 10:22 AM
  #584
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SECRET SQUIRREL View Post
I officially DGAF anymore, scum-bags piss away 2/3 of the season with half-assed efforts but now want to go all out when the pressure is off and wins are pointless? Yay...
It's infuriating isn't it? And it's the same **** ever year.

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04-09-2013, 10:30 AM
  #585
Tim Murray
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SECRET SQUIRREL View Post
I officially DGAF anymore, scum-bags piss away 2/3 of the season with half-assed efforts but now want to go all out when the pressure is off and wins are pointless? Yay...
Which group of players on the team are responsible for this do you think? We have a lot of newer guys in the lineup.

Should we lay this at Pommer/Stafford's feet I wonder? Was it Ruff?

There has to be a reason for it, given it happens every damn year.

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04-09-2013, 09:29 PM
  #586
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Could it be? The tank rises from its ashen heap?

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04-09-2013, 09:31 PM
  #587
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Originally Posted by indigoo View Post
Could it be? The tank rises from its ashen heap?
I hope so. We have some winnable games coming up, so hopefully tonight's disaster really crushed their spirit.

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04-09-2013, 09:34 PM
  #588
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Quote:
Originally Posted by indigoo View Post
Could it be? The tank rises from its ashen heap?
Not sure how the tank can be a phoenix, but I guess it is. It's irony inside an irony. Isn't there a literary term for that?

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04-09-2013, 09:35 PM
  #589
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Originally Posted by Daz28 View Post
Not sure how the tank can be a phoenix, but I guess it is. It's irony inside an irony. Isn't there a literary term for that?
Let's not get too literal here. Bathe in the symbolism.

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04-09-2013, 09:36 PM
  #590
MacOfNiagara
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Quote:
Originally Posted by indigoo View Post
Could it be? The tank rises from its ashen heap?
Think that ship has sailed, or tank has sailed, depending on if you like your metaphors mixed or not.

IMO, too late for playoffs, too late for tank.

Welcome to limbo, the eternal state of mediocracy.

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04-09-2013, 09:40 PM
  #591
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Originally Posted by MacOfNiagara View Post
Think that ship has sailed, or tank has sailed, depending on if you like your metaphors mixed or not.

IMO, too late for playoffs, too late for tank.

Welcome to limbo, the eternal state of mediocracy.
At least our credit card bill is low. It is somethink to be tankful for.

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Old
04-09-2013, 09:59 PM
  #592
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Based on win percentage, we'd pick 6th now. There is still hope. Just get into the top 5 please.

Jones.Drouin.MacKinnon.Barkov.Lindholm.

Please.

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Old
04-09-2013, 10:00 PM
  #593
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Updated Outlook


As of 4/09/2013 at 11:00 PM

As of right now, we sit at 38 points with 11 Regulation/OT wins in 40 games. 8th Place NYR has 42 points with 16 Regulation/OT wins in 39 games. At the moment, according to SCS, we have a 2.1% chance of making the playoffs. Accuscore has us at a 1.4% chance of making it. This weekends' games are the key to how we finish, and if we see any changes in Coaches in the off-season. Our next games are:


4/07: New Jersey - Result = W(SO)
4/09: @Winnipeg - Result = L
4/11: Montreal
4/13: Philadelphia
4/14: Tampa
4/17: @Boston

~Will remove this section once eliminated from playoff contention. And add in a draft special~

---------------------
Rest Of Season Situation
  • 6 Home Games
  • 2 Away Games
  • 2 Games against the SE, 4 games against the Atlantic, 2 games against the NE

Rolston Record

Since Rolston has taken over, the Sabres have played 23 games and have gone 10-8-5, and 5-3-2 in the last 10. So if that ratio we're to carry over into the final 9 games and the Sabres were to go 3-3-2, that would mean the Sabres would finish with 46 points and most likely finish 12th in the Conference (46% Chance, or a 36% chance to finish 13th), which would probably be a pick in the 5~8 range for 12th place in the Conference

Accuscore

Accuscore has us finishing our last 8 games as 3-4-1, for a record of 19-22-7 or 45 points. That would most likely put us at 13th in the East (51% Chance), between the 5th ~ 7th pick

Sabres Season

That Sabres have a current win percentage of .444 of Home Games, and a Point Percentage of .611. So of the remaining 6 home games, if the trend continues, the Sabres are looking at a record of 3-2-1.
Their away win percentage is .364 and a point percentage of .500. Of the remaining 2 away games, the trend would show a record of 1-1-0.
That would equal out to a record of 4-3-1, or 47 points. Missing the Playoffs with a 35% chance of finishing 11th in Conference, and a 41% chance of finishing 12th.

The record predictions from Accuscore, Rolston's coaching, and the Sabres entire season are nearly identical. All three show a prediction within 1~2 point(s) of each other.

-----------

[I]***Of Note, Ruff went 6-10-1 before getting fired. So the Sabres have improved their winning percentage by .082 (from .353 to .435),, roughly 1~2 games better than they were trending on the year. However, their point percentage has increased 58%, from .412 to .652 under Rolston.***


What the above shows is that while Ruff and Rolston have a nearly identical winning percentage, the difference is that almost half of Rolston's losses have come in OT or SO. Ruff gained 13 of a possible 34 points, or .412%, whereas Rolston has gained 26 of a possible 46 points, or .565%.

Fun "What If Math"
  • Had Ruff continued coaching and stayed with his pace, the Sabres would have 33 points,
    thus being in tied for 4th last in the League.

  • Had Rolston coached from the start and stayed with his pace, the Sabres would have about 45 points,
    that would have them in playoff position, tied for 6th in the East.
------------------

Tank
If we were to play at around .250 pace, say 2-6-0, SCS has us at a slightly better than 64% chance of finishing 14th or worse in conference, which would most likely equate to a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

Playoffs
In order to make the playoffs, most believe it would take around 52 points. For the Sabres to do that, they would need to win at least 7, preferably 8 of their final 8 games. 52 points would mean a 54.3% chance, 53 a 81.0% chance, and 54 a 95.0% chance. Getting to that 52 points would mean:
  • Winning 7 of the 8 games which is .875 hockey
  • Getting about 14 out of 16 points available
  • Losing ONLY 1 or less games
Irrelevancy (9th/12th)
If we were to go on a run and finish between 48-51 points, there is about a 63% to 83% chance that we would finish between 9th and 12th. 48-51 points would be playing at about .650 hockey the rest of the way through. Which would mean about 5~6 wins in our final 8.

*If we finished with 51 points, there is about a 25% chance we could sneak into the 8th seed*

------------------

Current Predicted Standings

Right now, the predicted final standings and draft order (barring lottery results) would be:
as of 4/02/2013 @ 10:30 PM EST
  1. Colorado (29.5)
  2. Florida (28.7)
  3. Calgary (27.6)
  4. Carolina (26.5)
  5. Nashville (24.3)
  6. Buffalo (23.9)
  7. Philadelphia (23.0)
  8. Tampa (22.3)
  9. Columbus (20.5)
  10. Edmonton (20.3)
  11. New Jersey (20.2)
  12. Phoenix (19.4)
  13. Dallas (18.9)
  14. Winnipeg (17.0)


(The number in brackets is the average finish after running a lot of simulations)

Meaning the Sabres would have a 6.2% shot at winning the lottery

I feel the top 4 teams are set. There's a small chance Carolina may pull off a couple wins, but they look like a lock for a top 5 pick. Right now, 4 teams are fighting for the spots between 5-10.
--------------------

My Prediction

Well, we went from almost certainty of at least a top 5 pick, to now most likely picking between 5~10. With how they've been over performing and a majority of the games at home, I think we finish the final 8 games 3-3-2, so a 80% chance of finishing 12th or 13th, so a pick between 5-8.

The difference between 43, 45 ,and 47 points is the difference between 47%, 10%, and 1% shot of a top 3 pick, and a 95%, 61%, and 17% shot at a top 5 pick.

------------------------
In easy to understand terms:

Sabres at 43 or less points(3 wins or less): 47% or Better chance of top 3 pick
Sabres at 44-51 points(Between 3 ~ 6 wins): *No playoffs, picking between 4-14
Sabres at 52 or greater points: *50% chance of playoffs

-------------------------

A couple things have changed in the data.
  • 52 points is only a slightly better than 50% chance of making the playoffs. So even if the Sabres go on an improbably run, of 7 out of 8 wins, they'd still only have a coin flip chance of making it in.

  • A top 3 pick is a virtual lock to not happen now. The Sabres would need to win only 1, maybe 2 games at most the rest of the year, and that's not happening unless Miller gets hurt, even then, we'd probably somehow at least win 3.

  • With losing out on a top 3 pick and winning games of late, the Sabres have also greatly increased their odds of finishing between 9th and 12th. At best, we're looking at a pick around 5 now. At worst, we'll be stuck around pick 12.

  • As mentioned before, each win now lowers the Sabre potential draft pick by 1 to 2 spots, and each loss improves the position by 1-2 spots. Right now, we are picking 8th, but the projections but us at 6th.
    • If we finish about .600 (5-2-1) (49 points), we're most likely picking 9~12
    • If we finish about .500 (4-3-1) (47 points), we're most likely picking 7~9.
    • If we finish about .400 (3-4-1) (45 points), we're most likely picking 5~7
    • If we finish about .250 (2-5-1) (43 points), we're most likely picking 4~6


Last edited by sjci: 04-11-2013 at 06:36 AM.
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Old
04-09-2013, 10:18 PM
  #594
sjci
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Right now the difference between 5th and 8th is only 2.0, so what that means is that it is still highly volatile between those picks.

Tuesday night's games were generally a help to the Sabres, only Nashville (1-0, they had 0 offense, only 15 shots) and Carolina (5-3 loss, blew a 3-2 3rd period lead).

There aren't many games that will impact the lottery much tomorrow:
  1. Toronto @ NY Rangers: No impact on the lottery but a NYR win would lower the playoff chance by .3 to 1.8%.

  2. Boston @ New Jersey: Minimal impact on lottery (.1 for most teams)

  3. Edmonton @ Phoenix: Would like to see an OT/SO game, another small impact for most (.1)

  4. Vancouver @ Calgary: Calgary win would be a .1 impact for us, but would close the gap between Calgary and Carolina for the 3rd pick to .4

  5. Colorado @ Anaheim: No impact on the lottery past the top 3

The bolded teams are who you want to win tomorrow to help the Sabres draft chance. If everything went the Sabres way, their draft stock would increase .3 to 24.2


Last edited by sjci: 04-09-2013 at 10:41 PM.
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Old
04-10-2013, 01:38 AM
  #595
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Thanks again SJCI

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Old
04-10-2013, 04:53 AM
  #596
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#BarefeetForBarkov

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04-10-2013, 05:28 AM
  #597
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I've given up hope for one of the big three. Hoping to finish 4-6 and take Lindholm.

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04-10-2013, 08:05 AM
  #598
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Der Jaeger View Post
I've given up hope for one of the big three. Hoping to finish 4-6 and take Lindholm.
Like KSly, the favorite person of many posters, has said, this time is simply not worse than a handful of teams at the bottom right now. Florida, Calgary, Colorado are easily worse. Some others are close.

If this team was bad enough to be competing (ha!) for last place, this place would be a lot more negative than it is now. It would be ugly.

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04-10-2013, 08:12 AM
  #599
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I've given up hope for one of the big three. Hoping to finish 4-6 and take Lindholm.
You have to go Barkov at 4.

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04-10-2013, 08:27 AM
  #600
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