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Should we buyout Jokinen?

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Old
04-10-2013, 04:58 PM
  #51
fatschoonerrat
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
5v5
SeasonRelQoCOZSRelCorsiG/60A1/60P/60
2009-2010 0.586 51.8 4.9 0.51 0.61 1.69
2010-2011 1.006 52.9 -6.9 0.66 0.55 1.75
2011-2012 2.056 47.9 -6.3 0.65 0.75 1.80
2012-2013 0.031 53.1 -3.5 0.50 0.00 0.90
Points to note:
*he isn't facing as tough of competition as he used to so you'd expect a beter RelCorsi than 2010 + 2011, which is what you get... but of course still not that nice, because he's not really a 2way C despite what some have stated...
*his 5v5 goalscoring is pretty much exactly in the ranges we should have expected/predicted
*does anyone see where the albatross is??? his primary assists... they are blank, none, zilch.

As you can see, we're pretty much getting EXACTLY the Jokinen we should (and I did) suspect... Except, the apparent lack of any primary assists what-so-ever. Now don't go off saying he is a shoot first guy and what-not, because he is the same Jokinen as the 3 seasons prior and was getting that. The problem here is he has spent way too much time with Kane which hasn't worked at all.


5v4
SeasonG/60A1/60P/60
2009-2010 0.83 1.11 3.33
2010-2011 1.29 2.06 5.15
2011-2012 2.18 2.43 5.82
2012-2013 0.00 0.69 0.69
Wow... definite fall down here.
Powerplay production is never really consistent due to extremely small sample size throughout the season, so the variance between 2009-12 is pretty normal. The 2012-13 year is not.
Jokinen was never used at the point in CGY and that's because it doesn't fit his game. He was used on the opposite wing of Iginla or in front of the net and he was pretty ****ing successful there.


Conclusion
Get Jokinen on the third line.
Why? Because he sucks? No... because Kane-Jokinen does.not.work. and you want Kane getting bigger minutes more so than Jokinen. Kane has scored most of his goals away from Jokinen with less TOI. Jets scored twice as many goals per min with Jokinen-Peluso than Jokinen-Kane.
Switch Burmistrov and Jokinen. This way you have three lines that have scoring threats, Kane's production will rise, Jokinen's production will rise, you have your top6 producers per a minute in your top6; it's your basic win-win.

Keep Jokinen on the PP but get him away from the top of the umbrella
Jokinen was a great PP point guy in FLA. He's not the guy he was in Florida though... he's the guy they had in CGY. Calgary has shown though that he can still be a great PP weapon, but down low.
Jets like having three guys high and two low but maybe what they should do is:
Wheeler-Little-Ladd
Byfuglien-Enstrom
^Keep the same umbrella format with Wheeler and Ladd switching up high.
Jokinen-Burmistrov-Kane
Bogosian-Clitsome/Postma/?Trouba?
^Keep the wingers lower and run the play more down low
Great analysis. Print this out and send it to Claude Noel, c/o Winnipeg Jets.

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04-10-2013, 05:06 PM
  #52
garret9
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A lot of Kane's primary assists come from rebounds and people getting stuff like Wellwood did last game. So, it isn't the greatest measurement for that. Currently there really isn't.

He honestly isn't as bad as some people point out, or as good as his assists make it look to be. He is in the middle. Not a hindrance and not a playmaker. He has his role and with the right guys it works.

The fact is Jokinen do not work, and being both shoot first guys isn't it.
Wheeler shoots and carries the puck just as much (if not more) than Jokinen and he's worked fine with Kane and Ladd. Just some guys don't work well together.

Jokinen HAS historically had good statistical chemistry with some players: Wheeler, Wellwood, Peluso
Kane HAS historically had good statistical chemistry with some players: Antropov, Burmistrov, Wheeler
Just there is none together... and neither with Miettinen...


To note: Kane is also one of the top PP producers 3 seasons in a row for this team, usually putting up respectable production per minute. I think the idea that he's only a good 5v5 player is false. He, like Jokinen, just has to be used right when on the PP (combo of coaching and himself).




Quote:
Originally Posted by fatschoonerrat View Post
Great analysis. Print this out and send it to Claude Noel, c/o Winnipeg Jets.
Friggin TNSE should hire me haha

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04-10-2013, 05:21 PM
  #53
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Kane's biggest weakness in my opinion is his decision making. For example how many times does jokinen cycle the puck to him down low and rather than keep the cycle going or make a pass to the D or find a guy in the slot, does he just riffle it on net from on the goal line, causing a turnover and the puck going the other way. Oddly enough i think Kane gets alot of his assists from plays like this. Its not a good hockey play but it ends up in goals on occasion but it also kills your teams momentum more often than not having turned over the puck for a lousy shot on net.

Another example is wellwoods goal yesterday. I know it ends up in a goal, but that is terrible shot selection. He had all day with the puck and his first reaction is to wind up for the shot and search for a shotting lane. On the close up replay Kane didnt even take a look at potential passes. Wellwood would of been open for the one timer and the far side D was busting in for a long pass. Im sure you all know what happened, welly scores and kane gets an assist, but my point being its a terrible shot choice from a bad angle once again that hits shin pads and luckily found welly in the slot where normally the puck bounces into the corner where the other teams D picks the puck up and breaks out

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04-10-2013, 05:45 PM
  #54
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when the Jets' GF/60 with Kane on the ice drops below unreal numbers... I'll start to question Kane's decisions...
Until then, he fills a role and gets the results.

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04-10-2013, 05:53 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
when the Jets' GF/60 with Kane on the ice drops below unreal numbers... I'll start to question Kane's decisions...
Until then, he fills a role and gets the results.
... more or less by himself. Which makes it all the more impressive.

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04-10-2013, 06:12 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Grind View Post
completely disagree.

I personally feel this is a myth, and that because he shoots a lot and is a "shoot first" player, people assume he does this.

From the games I've watched Kane's fine at dishing the puck off, the only time i've seen him blatantly ignore passing is when he's had a two goal game and is trying his damndest to net the hatty.

Kane does pass the puck, he's set his linemates up a number of times, its just we don't look for it.

Carrying that forward, he's also had absolutely garbage linemates most of the season and he's forced to shoot or he has to wait for his linemates to gain the zone and risk turning the puck over.

On our power play absolutely no one shoots enough.

I personally think Kanes shortcomings as a passer or "team player" are overblown because people expect them to be bad (confirmation bias, etc), when in reality I'd say he's got a pretty good on ice IQ.

he's definitly been much better this season then last.


as For joki, the whole crux of the issue was Burmi.

Burmi pissed of noel so he took him off that line and everything went to hell.




obviously a gross over simplification and i'm only half serious, but i would really like to see burmi back on that line- the whole team played better with him up there.
Completely disagree with your Kane analysis

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04-10-2013, 06:15 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
I can argue the exact same, that you are looking for reason to think he has improved in those areas. While he has improved, he still makes many bad decisions with the puck. I specifically watch for it with him, since who else are you going to watch on
I like Kane and he is great complementary piece, but let's face it. He has terrible hockey IQ, does not see the lanes, terrible PP player, does not help teammates out. Doing it every once and while doesn't count, hell Anthony freaking Peluso had at least one real nice little play this year.

The good news is that who cares? The guy is fantastically naturally skilled and can put up 30g 5v5. Not many can do that. He will be a real solid player for us for a lot of years, we can find guys to fill other roles. He can make a line a dangerous offensive force all by himself, making 3 scoring lines that much easier in a couple of years.
Great analysis totally agree!

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04-10-2013, 06:27 PM
  #58
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Only if it makes sense and we either need the cap space to sign a player, or the cap space to take advantage of another teams situation.
Totally agree! No sense paying out 3M unless a bunch of good UFA's and RFA's become available this summer due to the mahem of teams trying to whittle down to the new CAP. Otherwise and until his contract is up play him to according to the minutes he earns or trade him for picks.

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04-10-2013, 06:30 PM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
A lot of Kane's primary assists come from rebounds and people getting stuff like Wellwood did last game. So, it isn't the greatest measurement for tha6t. Currently there really isn't6.

He honestly isn't as bad as some people point out, or as good as his assists make it look to be. He is in the middle. Not a hindrance and not a playmaker. He has his role and with the right guys it works.

The fact is Jokinen do not work, and being both shoot first guys isn't it.
Wheeler shoots and carries the puck just as much (if not more) than Jokinen and he's worked fine with Kane and Ladd. Just some guys don't work well together.

Jokinen HAS historically had good statistical chemistry with some players: Wheeler, Wellwood, Peluso
Kane HAS historically had good statistical chemistry with some players: Antropov, Burmistrov, Wheeler
Just there is none together... and neither with Miettinen...


To note: Kane is also one of the top PP producers 3 seasons in a row for this team, usually putting up respectable production per minute. I think the idea that he's only a good 5v5 player is false. He, like Jokinen, just has to be used right when on the PP (combo of coaching and himself).





Friggin TNSE should hire me haha
Can't bold from my phone(have edited since) but the point about him not being as bad and not being great is what I'm trying to say. I don't think he's the third best playmaker on the team as A/60 would make it seem, but I do't think the two are mutually exclusive to the point that you could achieve that while being "terrible". Pp production would further this.

Anyways taking a shot on net is a play. if it results in a goal (by anyone on your team) then IMO ut was the right play.

Essentially if he has this production with"terrible hockey iq" he'd probably be better then crosby if he had even an above average one.


Last edited by Grind: 04-10-2013 at 06:55 PM.
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04-10-2013, 07:02 PM
  #60
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Should the Jets buy out Jokinen? Probably not - as noted above, he's only got a year remaining, and he's got to rebound from this aberration of a season, no?

Will the Jets buy him out? I doubt it. TNSE is loyal, almost to a fault, and I think the Jets sold him hard on coming to Winnipeg, and probably don't want to call it a failed experiment. The optics wouldn't be very good.

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04-10-2013, 07:05 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DarthMonty View Post
Should the Jets buy out Jokinen? Probably not - as noted above, he's only got a year remaining, and he's got to rebound from this aberration of a season, no?

Will the Jets buy him out? I doubt it. TNSE is loyal, almost to a fault, and I think the Jets sold him hard on coming to Winnipeg, and probably don't want to call it a failed experiment. The optics wouldn't be very good.
I guess they didn't sell the Peg to Pony?

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04-10-2013, 10:21 PM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DarthMonty View Post
Should the Jets buy out Jokinen? Probably not - as noted above, he's only got a year remaining, and he's got to rebound from this aberration of a season, no?

Will the Jets buy him out? I doubt it. TNSE is loyal, almost to a fault, and I think the Jets sold him hard on coming to Winnipeg, and probably don't want to call it a failed experiment. The optics wouldn't be very good.
Sure they should buy him out! Why would you even want him back, he doesn't do anything particularly well. He is awful even as a third line centre, the Jets can do better.


Last edited by sipowicz: 04-10-2013 at 10:32 PM.
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04-10-2013, 11:01 PM
  #63
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Should we? Absolutely. Will they? No chance, imo.

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04-11-2013, 12:32 AM
  #64
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Sure they should buy him out!
Now how did I know that you would say this?

I must be psychic

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04-11-2013, 12:59 AM
  #65
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I don't see any actual good arguments for.
Just: we should look he doesn't have many points... which I pointed out is a bit of a misconception.

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04-11-2013, 03:27 AM
  #66
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
I don't see any actual good arguments for.
Just: we should look he doesn't have many points... which I pointed out is a bit of a misconception.
My argument is that he needs to go so Noel is forced to try some different options on the 2nd line. What's going to happen next year? Are Burmi and Scheifele going to be playing with plumbers and muckers so Olli can **** away another season not assisting on any Kane goals? I say don't even give Noel the option! Of course Noel could come up with worse options for those roles, I suppose...

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04-11-2013, 03:50 AM
  #67
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it makes no sense to buy them out. He has one more year on his contract, is still a top 9 forward, and can't do nearly so poorly next season.

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04-11-2013, 06:13 AM
  #68
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you don't buy him out. you play him on a 3rd line where his performance dictates he should be.
This is my line of thinking. Play him on the 3rd line if his performance warrants it. If anything he'll give us a good veteran presence on the 3rd line, much like Antropov does now. Best case scenario, Olli rebounds in a contract year and performs well.

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04-11-2013, 07:37 AM
  #69
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I guess they didn't sell the Peg to Pony?
I would think that as a FA, Joki got the "big sell", as opposed to Poni, acquired via trade.

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04-11-2013, 08:21 AM
  #70
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I would think that as a FA, Joki got the "big sell", as opposed to Poni, acquired via trade.
Poni was signed as a FA too. Rumour was he talked to Android.

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Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
My argument is that he needs to go so Noel is forced to try some different options on the 2nd line. What's going to happen next year? Are Burmi and Scheifele going to be playing with plumbers and muckers so Olli can **** away another season not assisting on any Kane goals? I say don't even give Noel the option! Of course Noel could come up with worse options for those roles, I suppose...
If we're buying out Olli so Noel doesn't make stupid decisions, doesn't that mean we should get rid of Noel instead?

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04-11-2013, 08:44 AM
  #71
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I would think that as a FA, Joki got the "big sell", as opposed to Poni, acquired via trade.
poni was a FA.

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04-11-2013, 10:48 AM
  #72
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Poni was signed as a FA too. Rumour was he talked to Android.

If we're buying out Olli so Noel doesn't make stupid decisions, doesn't that mean we should get rid of Noel instead?
That would also be acceptable...

Is the team much improved from last year? Not at all!

 2010-112011-122012-13
SA/G32.2 (26th) 30.1 (15th) 29.6 (18th)
S/G 31.5 (11th) 30.1 (13th) 28.5 (17th)
PP% 18.3 (12th) 17.9 (12th) 12.5 (29th)
PK% 77.5 (27th) 80.1 (24th) 78.9 (25th)

So, better in SA/G, but ranked slightly lower against the rest of the league. Worse shots per game. Terrible PP - the worst ranked PP last year was converting at 13.5%, so we're a full point worse than that (hard to believe we're still only 29th). PK is floating around the team's average.

So, not only does Noel have some undeniably strange ideas about what players to use in what situations, he also isn't really setting the league on fire with the X's and O's of coaching. And he clearly has trouble figuring out how to motivate the team. So if the choice is fire Noel but keep Jokinen, then I'm on board!

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04-11-2013, 11:35 AM
  #73
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That would also be acceptable...

Is the team much improved from last year? Not at all!

 2010-112011-122012-13
SA/G32.2 (26th) 30.1 (15th) 29.6 (18th)
S/G 31.5 (11th) 30.1 (13th) 28.5 (17th)
PP% 18.3 (12th) 17.9 (12th) 12.5 (29th)
PK% 77.5 (27th) 80.1 (24th) 78.9 (25th)

So, better in SA/G, but ranked slightly lower against the rest of the league. Worse shots per game. Terrible PP - the worst ranked PP last year was converting at 13.5%, so we're a full point worse than that (hard to believe we're still only 29th). PK is floating around the team's average.

So, not only does Noel have some undeniably strange ideas about what players to use in what situations, he also isn't really setting the league on fire with the X's and O's of coaching. And he clearly has trouble figuring out how to motivate the team. So if the choice is fire Noel but keep Jokinen, then I'm on board!
Yep. Sadly Joker really hasn't brought much more to the table that Stapler did.

Add to that Noel's insistence to stick with line combos that don't work.

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04-11-2013, 11:42 AM
  #74
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Yep. Sadly Joker really hasn't brought much more to the table that Stapler did.

Add to that Noel's insistence to stick with line combos that don't work.
Add to that the fact that lightly used Wellwood has only one less point than Joker in a lot less minutes and about 10 less games and on the 3rd and 4th lines. To say that Joker is anything but a B-U-S-T is an understatement.

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04-11-2013, 12:00 PM
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Add to that the fact that lightly used Wellwood has only one less point than Joker in a lot less minutes and about 10 less games and on the 3rd and 4th lines. To say that Joker is anything but a B-U-S-T is an understatement.
Yep. Welly, Antro and Burmi are all firmly ahead of him in points per minute.

Mittens is actually ahead of him too. Olli is 9th among regular forwards in scoring, but 5th in ice time. That is probably a big chunk of why goal scoring is down.

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