Statistically if Habs lose every remaining game in regulation, odds of making the playoffs are now 99.9%. Otherwise, considering possible outcomes of games played against one another by other Eastern Conference teams, Habs are in.
We have 55 points. NJ and WPG can both max out at 56 points. But WPG has 19 ROWs to our 22, so in a scenario where we lose out and WPG wins out and at least 4 of those are ROWs, they would finish ahead of us. So we need 2 points.
Pace: Habs .721, NYR: .515.
So we get .721*2 per game and NYR loose .485*2 per game.
So 14 = n * (.721 + .485) * 2 or n=7/1.206
n = 5.8
So in 6 games = April 11th against Buffalo
or can also use NJD (assuming a team will outpace the NYR)
7/(.721+.442)= 7/1.163 = 6.01 games
I assume that 14 more points puts us in PO for sure...
14 points seems good: we are 14 points ahead with 14 games to play.
Using NJD means 18 as a magic number...
so 9/1.163 = 7.738 = 8
So between 6 to 8 games...