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04-09-2013, 11:25 AM
  #1
sjci
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The Price of Moving Up in the Draft

I've seen it being suggested in many different threads, in the Sabres Forum and in the Trade Rumors. I've seen such things as people (re: Leafs fans ) thinking they could possibly move up to the 5th pick for their 20th+Gardiner. I've seen a couple that have Stafford plus our pick, maybe around 10, and think that might be enough to move up to 5th or 6th. However, the fact of the matter is, very rarely is a top 10 pick traded. It has only happened five (plus the Kessel trade which two picks ended up being in the top ten) times since the 04-05 lockout.

Here's a recap of the deals made:

Quote:
2012:
  • Canes trade pick 1(8), Brandon Sutter, and Brian Dumoulin
    for Jordan Staal
2011:
  • Columbus trades picks 1(9), 3(68), and Jakub Voracek
    for Jeff Carter
2008:
  • Maple Leafs trade picks 1(7), a future second-round pick, and pick 3(68)
    for pick 1(5)

  • Predators trade picks 1(9) and 2(40)
    for pick 1(7)
2007:
  • Sharks trade picks 1(13) and 2(44)
    for pick 1(9)
And the Kessel deal, which were for 2 future 1st's that ended up being top 10 picks. So moving at the top of the draft, even with a pick that could be only 2 spots difference, would cost you at least an early 2nd. Teams just don't really like moving down from the top it seems.

Trading Vanek is a possibility, as players like Jeff Carter, Phil Kessel, and Jordan Staal have been traded for high picks, the downside though is losing a proven player like Vanek for a possible top player. I say possible because you never know what could happen with draft picks, even those with almost sure-fire potential. It's a proven asset for an unknown. Ryan Miller would also be a possibility, but he's going to be less than a month away from 33 at the time of the draft.

Also, Carter had years left on his contract, and Carolina and Toronto made the trades knowing they were going to be able to sign Staal and Kessel to long term extensions, so only having 1 year left on Vanek and Miller's contract while a plus in some ways, could also be seen as a negative.

Some have also made the argument to use the Minnesota 1st to move up from. Say the pick was a mid/late 1st, between 15-22. While slightly more possible to be done than trading into or further into the top 10, the price is still steep.

Quote:
2012:
  • Buffalo trades picks 1(21) and 2(42)
    for 1(14)
2010:
  • LA Kings trade picks 1(19) and 2(59)
    for 1(15)

2009:
  • NY Islanders send picks 1(16), 3(77), and 7(182)
    For 1(12)
2008:
  • Senators trade pick 1(18), and a future 3rd
    For 1(15)

  • LA Kings trade picks 1(17) and 1(28)
    For 1(12)

  • Sabres trade pick 1(13), and a future 3rd
    For 1(12)
2007:
  • Wild trade picks 1(19) and 2(42)
    For 1(16)
2006:
  • Sharks trade picks 1(20) and 2(53)
    For 1(16)
So to move up, say 5 spots, from the Wild's pick would mean a 2nd Round pick, another 2nd to move up into the 12/13 range, and another 2nd or even a future 1st to possibly move into the top 10. The point being that if you wanted to trade the Minnesota pick (around 20) to move near the top 10, at best you would probably be looking at adding 3 2nd Round picks, or something of equal value.

Now, the Sabres have the assets to possibly pull off a deal like that. In the next 3 years, the Sabres currently have 4 1st's and 7 2nds. But are you willing to pay the cost to do it?


Last edited by sjci: 04-09-2013 at 05:25 PM.
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Old
04-09-2013, 11:33 AM
  #2
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The price is probably Grigorenko or Armia considering the teams at the top of drafts are more likely to covet young players.

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04-09-2013, 11:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shoey View Post
The price is probably Grigorenko or Armia considering the teams at the top of drafts are more likely to covet young players.
I think they'll want proven players like Vanek or Miller more than they would Armia or Grigo.

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04-09-2013, 11:43 AM
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It all depends on the GM and the teams wants and directives from ownership. What team feels a need to speed up a rebuild? Are any of the GM's at the top feeling a need to make the playoffs to keep their jobs? There are many variables, but with Vanek and Miller probably being the two biggest names available, anything is possible.

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04-09-2013, 12:43 PM
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Remember the draft episode of Beyond Blue and Gold where Regier talked about trading picks 12 and 21 for 5 and 35? If we stay roughly where we are in the standings right now, we could easily move up a spot or a few with some of our extra picks.

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04-10-2013, 06:04 PM
  #6
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As I said in the other thread, I think the cost to move to 2nd overall is 2013 1st (BUF 6th-ish), 2013 1st (MIN 25th-ish), 2013 2nd or a mid tier player, perhaps both. I dont know if that would get it done for either team but that is the range.
The only other option I see is a trade with Philly for Miller and holding down two of the picks in the 5-8 range and then moving up a single pick and throwing in a second.

Short story? It would be hard to do and if so it would be expensive.

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04-10-2013, 06:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kenfury View Post
As I said in the other thread, I think the cost to move to 2nd overall is 2013 1st (BUF 6th-ish), 2013 1st (MIN 25th-ish), 2013 2nd or a mid tier player, perhaps both. I dont know if that would get it done for either team but that is the range.
The only other option I see is a trade with Philly for Miller and holding down two of the picks in the 5-8 range and then moving up a single pick and throwing in a second.

Short story? It would be hard to do and if so it would be expensive.
I think this is the draft to pay a price for a top-3 pick. I'd give up pretty much anything in our system for one.

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04-10-2013, 06:59 PM
  #8
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It's odd that you list the teams involved in the 2008 trade-ups except for the team that initiated both. IIRC it was reported at the time that NYI's desire to trade down made the trades possible, not TOR and NSH's desires to move up.

It might seem glib at first but the most important piece in a trade up is someone who wants for whatever reason to trade down. In my 10+Stafford for 6 scenario, that's Philly.


Last edited by drinking bleach irl: 04-10-2013 at 07:10 PM.
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04-10-2013, 07:05 PM
  #9
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I doubt anyone is too keen to move down and the cost to move up from late in the top 10 to the top of the top 10 seems prohibitive. With a desire to restock the system, it seems they want more kicks at the can, not less.

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04-11-2013, 03:57 PM
  #10
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It all depennds on what team you are trading with.

a team like Tampa Bay or Philadelphia is looking to win now. There is the chance a team that just misses the playoffs wins the lottery for #1.

If they are dealing with a team looking to win now, Buffalo could use Miller to flip picks.

If Bauffalo is around 7-10 and Tampa Bay/Philadelphia is at 3: Buffalo trades Miller/Vanek + 1st (7-10) to TaTB/PHL for their 1st (#3) and a young player.

Such a deal will not fly with someone rebuilding like Calgary or colorado.

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04-11-2013, 04:23 PM
  #11
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Because I honestly don't know ....


When was the last time a team had a top 5 pick, and a GM traded it away on draft day. Who was the GM? What was the trade?



I don't think any GM will trade away their top 5 pick this season. No matter what the offer

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04-11-2013, 04:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZZamboni View Post
Because I honestly don't know ....


When was the last time a team had a top 5 pick, and a GM traded it away on draft day. Who was the GM? What was the trade?



I don't think any GM will trade away their top 5 pick this season. No matter what the offer

In 2008 Garth Snow traded down twice from #5 to eventually rest at #9. He ended up picking up two 2nd round picks that year and one in the future.

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04-11-2013, 04:44 PM
  #13
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Price of moving up to top-3: Our 1st, Minnesota's 1st, a 2nd and a roster player or prospect (Stafford/Weber/Pysyk/Girgensons/Enroth)

Having an Elite player like MacKinnon/Jones/Barkov/Drouin on the level of Toews/Stamkos/etc... PRICELESS

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04-11-2013, 05:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZZamboni View Post
Because I honestly don't know ....


When was the last time a team had a top 5 pick, and a GM traded it away on draft day. Who was the GM? What was the trade?



I don't think any GM will trade away their top 5 pick this season. No matter what the offer
Maybe not the last time, but when Vancouver acquired the 2nd overall pick without sacrificing the 3rd overall in order to get both Sedin's was probably the craftiest trading I can think of. That was 1999. At different points, Burke held each of the 1st 4 picks in that draft.

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04-11-2013, 05:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dkollidas View Post
Price of moving up to top-3: Our 1st, Minnesota's 1st, a 2nd and a roster player or prospect (Stafford/Weber/Pysyk/Girgensons/Enroth)

Having an Elite player like MacKinnon/Jones/Barkov/Drouin on the level of Toews/Stamkos/etc... PRICELESS
Yeah, no.

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04-11-2013, 05:24 PM
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With a deep draft class this year and Buffalo having needs at both FW and D, I don't see the urgency in moving up. There should be a player that is both 1) pretty good and 2) plays a position Buffalo needs to fill. Unless they somehow screw up badly and finish with a 14th pick, they should just stay where they are and focus on drafting players that won't bust out.

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04-11-2013, 05:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Myllz View Post
Yeah, no.
No to the deal or no to the cost? Because it think that will be near the price for one of the top three picks.

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04-11-2013, 06:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kenfury View Post
No to the deal or no to the cost? Because it think that will be near the price for one of the top three picks.
Both. If you're going by pick values, the top 3 picks are worth anywhere from 850-950. Assuming we pick 8th, that pick has a value of around 625. Adding on Minnesota's pick (depending where they finish) adds anywhere from 275-350. That alone brings you around the value of a top 3 pick. Adding on a second round pick worth around 200, plus a good roster player? That's terrible asset management. I get the understanding that you'd probably have to pay to move into the top 3, but that's overboard and not worth it, especially since NOBODY IS GUARANTEED to be good at the NHL level.

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04-11-2013, 06:09 PM
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If we get 5th, what would it take to move to 3rd? Stafford+2nd?

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04-11-2013, 08:03 PM
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Myllz View Post
Yeah, no.
Yea, but youre looking stricly at a formula, which not all teams will agree with, especially when they feel the top-3 in this draft are better it increases the value of those picks. It will cost more than the "value chart" dictates

And yes, the draft is a crap shoot, but the guys in the top-3 are usually a very good bet at becoming very very good players.

To me I'd trade the entire team I possible for Stamkos, or Ovechkin.

I'd trade some draft picks and a guy like Stafford and a prospect, maybe not a Grigorenko or Girgensons, but maybe a guy like McNabb


Last edited by dkollidas: 04-11-2013 at 08:10 PM.
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04-11-2013, 08:32 PM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dkollidas View Post
Yea, but youre looking stricly at a formula, which not all teams will agree with, especially when they feel the top-3 in this draft are better it increases the value of those picks. It will cost more than the "value chart" dictates

And yes, the draft is a crap shoot, but the guys in the top-3 are usually a very good bet at becoming very very good players.

To me I'd trade the entire team I possible for Stamkos, or Ovechkin.

I'd trade some draft picks and a guy like Stafford and a prospect, maybe not a Grigorenko or Girgensons, but maybe a guy like McNabb
Counterpoint, the idea of trading two firsts and a roster player for the next Yashin, Daigle, or Stefan sets the team back 5 years. That scares the crap out of every GM in the league.

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04-11-2013, 08:37 PM
  #22
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Originally Posted by kenfury View Post
Counterpoint, the idea of trading two firsts and a roster player for the next Yashin, Daigle, or Stefan sets the team back 5 years. That scares the crap out of every GM in the league.
True, but each of those guys were drafted quite a while ago, and while it does happen, I think the players are much more well scouted these days, and there is a better grasp on the talent and character of the top players

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04-11-2013, 09:37 PM
  #23
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Would you trade
(Tavaris/Hedman/Duchene/Stamkos/Doughty/JVR/Kane Turris) for
(OEL/Kadri/B Schenn/N. Falatov/ Collin Wilson/Z. Hamel/Voarchek/Couture) plus
(Eberle/Ennis/Schroeder/Mikael Backlund/ Pacioretty/Blum) . I would, however many GM will feel that they can walk away from a draft with the latter and say that they got good pieces and keep their jobs.

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04-11-2013, 09:47 PM
  #24
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They shouldn't be looking to move up with their own pick, anyway. They should be looking to get a second pick in the top 10 by moving up with Minnesota's pick.

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04-11-2013, 10:10 PM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheyAreGoodScaryGood View Post
If we get 5th, what would it take to move to 3rd? Stafford+2nd?
Really? If you were running a team would you really move from 3 to 5 for Stafford and a 2nd? Come on dude...

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