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2013 NHL Entry Draft Talk II

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Old
04-10-2013, 11:30 AM
  #101
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Good list (Edm, Phily, and Det need D), but, even if he lasts, Domi's health issue combined with frequent travel may not be something Gillis will want to take on.

Here's Button's bottom half list. Guy has been a decent prognosticator of late. The BPA from this list will be a Nuck. There is yet hope for Lazar fans.

16. Adam Erne
17. Morgan Klimchuk
18. Artturi Lehkonen
19. Bo Horvat
20. Rasmus Ristolainen
21. Kerby Rychel
22. Frederik Gauthier
23. Jason Dickinson
24. Ryan Hartman
25. Ryan Pulock
26. Laurent Dauphin
27. Nicolas Petan
28. Curtis Lazar
29. JT Compher
30. Valentin Zykov

Pulock sure has done some hard sliding. Not crazy about D men early but the prospect of having 4 100mph blue line howitzers in the line up is intriguing. Carnage could be a good antidote for ubiquitous shot-blocking and net collapsing.

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04-10-2013, 11:31 AM
  #102
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Where does the talent drop off in this draft? Obviously, there is a very clear top 3, but in most drafts, there is another tier somewhere between #10 and #15, where there is another marked drop off in skill. After this point, there is often not as much difference between #15 and #35 (for example) as there is between #12 and #15.

What I'm thinking of, is if the Canucks pickup a late 1st or early 2nd round pick as a part of a Luongo trade, they would be in a position, if they choose, to trade up in the draft. But unless the acquired pick is in the top 15 (unlikely it seems at this point), they won't be able to get into the top 10. Depending on how the draft tiers out, there may be no point at all in moving up from say #25 to #15, but a huge difference if you can get to #12.

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04-10-2013, 11:37 AM
  #103
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Originally Posted by LeftCoast View Post
Where does the talent drop off in this draft? Obviously, there is a very clear top 3, but in most drafts, there is another tier somewhere between #10 and #15, where there is another marked drop off in skill. After this point, there is often not as much difference between #15 and #35 (for example) as there is between #12 and #15.

What I'm thinking of, is if the Canucks pickup a late 1st or early 2nd round pick as a part of a Luongo trade, they would be in a position, if they choose, to trade up in the draft. But unless the acquired pick is in the top 15 (unlikely it seems at this point), they won't be able to get into the top 10. Depending on how the draft tiers out, there may be no point at all in moving up from say #25 to #15, but a huge difference if you can get to #12.
Hmm, well who do you lump in the second tier? Barkov, Monahan, Nichuskin, Zadorov? Ristolainen, Nurse, Shinkaruk. Lindholm and Wenberg as well? Just off the top of my head that gets you to 12.

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04-10-2013, 11:55 AM
  #104
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Pulock would be a steal. 17 year old d-man sharing top scoring honors on a crappy team. Take a look at his +/- in context - except for a 20 year old goon d-man on their team, every other D-man is well into the double digits in minuses. He's one of those that will go early in the top 20.

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Old
04-10-2013, 01:09 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by LeftCoast View Post
Where does the talent drop off in this draft? Obviously, there is a very clear top 3, but in most drafts, there is another tier somewhere between #10 and #15, where there is another marked drop off in skill. After this point, there is often not as much difference between #15 and #35 (for example) as there is between #12 and #15.

What I'm thinking of, is if the Canucks pickup a late 1st or early 2nd round pick as a part of a Luongo trade, they would be in a position, if they choose, to trade up in the draft. But unless the acquired pick is in the top 15 (unlikely it seems at this point), they won't be able to get into the top 10. Depending on how the draft tiers out, there may be no point at all in moving up from say #25 to #15, but a huge difference if you can get to #12.
This thread may be of use: probability of 1st rounder becoming top 6/4. At 1-5 there is a clear advantage, but from 6 to 25 (which for this draft we can extend to 30+ given the alleged depth) the odds fluctuate from roughly 30-40% with no significant advantage, i.e., crapshoot city. Also, unless you get in the top 5, there is historically no advantage to trading up.

Looking at that Button list there is a lot talent in the bottom half. Put Pulock on that Portland roster and if he doesn’t outscore Jones I’m monkey’s uncle. Likewise, is Petan the product of his surroundings or can he rival the Halifax kids in offence? Almost a certainty that someone on that list (or ranked even lower) will be a better pro than Monahan, Shinkaruk and co.

B*tch of it is, we won’t know for 4-5 years, but that won’t stop every GM claiming on draft day that he couldn’t believe his guy was still available, and we’ll have fun lapping it up.

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Old
04-10-2013, 01:50 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Trelane View Post
This thread may be of use: probability of 1st rounder becoming top 6/4. At 1-5 there is a clear advantage, but from 6 to 25 (which for this draft we can extend to 30+ given the alleged depth) the odds fluctuate from roughly 30-40% with no significant advantage, i.e., crapshoot city. Also, unless you get in the top 5, there is historically no advantage to trading up.
Interesting read.

This is probably why GMMG was not that interested in a package for Luongo in which the centerpiece was a draft pick. Trading a sure thing top 5 goalie for a 30% chance at a top 6 forward is not a good plan.

The drop off is greater than I estimated, so by the numbers, there is little reason to trade up unless you can get into the top 5 (probably top 3 in this draft). My subjective observation was that there seems to be a lot of misses in the 10 - 15 range, so there isn't a lot of point in trading up to 14. But this analysis shows that outside of the top 5, the success rate is pretty dismal.

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Old
04-10-2013, 03:30 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by Trelane View Post
Also, unless you get in the top 5, there is historically no advantage to trading up.
I dunno. I think the Canucks did alright trading up to get Edler.

...oh wait.... Franzen.

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Old
04-11-2013, 04:44 AM
  #108
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Originally Posted by BerSTUzzi View Post
Bleach, not a bad mock but I think Buffalo takes Barkov. They are pretty deep with C prospects but I see your reasoning with Monahan being a solid 2-way C they don't have (Hodgson and Grigs are not that).

Re-worked it a bit:


1-Calgary - Nate MacKinnon

2-Florida - Seth Jones

3-Colorado - Jonathan Drouin

4-Buffalo - Aleksander Barkov

5-Tampa Bay - Valeri Nichushkin

6-Nashville - Sean Monahan

7-Phoenix - Elias Lindholm

8-Philadelphia - Darnell Nurse

9-Dallas - Rasmus Ristolainen

10-Winnipeg - Hunter Shinkaruk

11-Edmonton - Nikita Zadorov

12-Carolina - Alex Wennberg

13-Columbus - Curtis Lazar

14-New York I. - Ryan Pulock

15-New Jersey - Josh Morrissey

16-Detroit - Adam Erne

17-Washington - Anthony Mantha

18-Columbus - Max Domi

19-Toronto - Zachary Fucale

20-Ottawa - Bo Horvat

21-San Jose - Fredrik Gauthier

22-Vancouver - Valentin Zykov

23-Calgary - Kerby Rychel

24-Buffalo - Robert Hagg

25-Anaheim - JT Compher

26-Montreal - Ryan Hartman

27-Dallas - Madison Bowey

28-Chicago - Nic Petan

29-Calgary - Jason Dickinson

30-Columbus - Mirco Mueller

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Old
04-11-2013, 05:08 AM
  #109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Re-worked it a bit:


1-Calgary - Nate MacKinnon

2-Florida - Seth Jones

3-Colorado - Jonathan Drouin

4-Buffalo - Aleksander Barkov

5-Tampa Bay - Valeri Nichushkin

6-Nashville - Sean Monahan

7-Phoenix - Elias Lindholm

8-Philadelphia - Darnell Nurse

9-Dallas - Rasmus Ristolainen

10-Winnipeg - Hunter Shinkaruk

11-Edmonton - Nikita Zadorov

12-Carolina - Alex Wennberg

13-Columbus - Curtis Lazar

14-New York I. - Ryan Pulock

15-New Jersey - Josh Morrissey

16-Detroit - Adam Erne

17-Washington - Anthony Mantha

18-Columbus - Max Domi

19-Toronto - Zachary Fucale

20-Ottawa - Bo Horvat

21-San Jose - Fredrik Gauthier

22-Vancouver - Valentin Zykov

23-Calgary - Kerby Rychel

24-Buffalo - Robert Hagg

25-Anaheim - JT Compher

26-Montreal - Ryan Hartman

27-Dallas - Madison Bowey

28-Chicago - Nic Petan

29-Calgary - Jason Dickinson

30-Columbus - Mirco Mueller
Really eh you think LA vs Pitts Final with LA repeating??? I'm willing to take that bet.

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Old
04-11-2013, 05:29 AM
  #110
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Originally Posted by The Kassian Train View Post
Really eh you think LA vs Pitts Final with LA repeating??? I'm willing to take that bet.
Not at all. The mock order was pulled from the Mocks sub forum. Since we don't know the final order yet, we can only go on certain permutations out there. LA vs. PIT is only one of them.

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04-11-2013, 09:30 AM
  #111
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Originally Posted by Trelane View Post
Good list (Edm, Phily, and Det need D), but, even if he lasts, Domi's health issue combined with frequent travel may not be something Gillis will want to take on.

Here's Button's bottom half list. Guy has been a decent prognosticator of late. The BPA from this list will be a Nuck. There is yet hope for Lazar fans.

16. Adam Erne
17. Morgan Klimchuk
18. Artturi Lehkonen
19. Bo Horvat
20. Rasmus Ristolainen
21. Kerby Rychel
22. Frederik Gauthier
23. Jason Dickinson
24. Ryan Hartman
25. Ryan Pulock
26. Laurent Dauphin
27. Nicolas Petan
28. Curtis Lazar
29. JT Compher
30. Valentin Zykov

Pulock sure has done some hard sliding. Not crazy about D men early but the prospect of having 4 100mph blue line howitzers in the line up is intriguing. Carnage could be a good antidote for ubiquitous shot-blocking and net collapsing.
I think Pulock, Lazar and Zykov are too low and Petan is too high. I'd be ecstatic if any one of Pulock, Lazar or Zykov became Canucks on draft day though.

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Old
04-11-2013, 11:49 AM
  #112
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I like everything I've read about Bo Horvat.

Very consistent player, strong 2-way game, leadership qualities, excellent in the face off circle and a very good puck distributor.

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Old
04-13-2013, 05:44 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by LeftCoast View Post
I like everything I've read about Bo Horvat.

Very consistent player, strong 2-way game, leadership qualities, excellent in the face off circle and a very good puck distributor.

His game is definitely multi-faceted. With him, the question is upside.

If people were given a choice between these players at 25, who would you take?

Zykov
Petan
Klimchuk
Hagg
Rychel

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Old
04-13-2013, 06:42 PM
  #114
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
His game is definitely multi-faceted. With him, the question is upside.

If people were given a choice between these players at 25, who would you take?

Zykov
Petan
Klimchuk
Hagg
Rychel
Tough choice, I think I'd take Zykov, but I wouldn't be unhappy with any of those guys except Klimchuk.

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04-13-2013, 06:57 PM
  #115
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Tough choice, I think I'd take Zykov, but I wouldn't be unhappy with any of those guys except Klimchuk.
Why the Klimchuk dislike? Good player definitely on par with the listed players there.
------
Been away for a bit. Nice lists bleach clean.

I'd like to add Bowey to the 'do not draft list' as he seems to be elevating his stock. I'm just not sold on his hockey sense.

I want smart, competitive players.

I'm hoping to get a good look at Compher.

I've come around a bit on Rychel, just because I have a gut feeling we take him if he's there.

I think the way you listed those 5 is how I'd draft them. Zykov then Petan the other 3 IMO are pretty close. I think Kilmchuk is the more skilled of he and Rychel.

Not sold on Hagg either, seems like another 'decent' swede who gets love because he's a swede.

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Old
04-13-2013, 07:06 PM
  #116
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Why the Klimchuk dislike? Good player definitely on par with the listed players there.
I don't dislike him per se, I would just be unhappy if we drafted him, as I feel that he lacks the raw talent of Petan, Zykov, or Rychel.

I just think his potential is limited, relative to other candidates.

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04-13-2013, 08:23 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
Why the Klimchuk dislike? Good player definitely on par with the listed players there.
------
Been away for a bit. Nice lists bleach clean.

I'd like to add Bowey to the 'do not draft list' as he seems to be elevating his stock. I'm just not sold on his hockey sense.

I want smart, competitive players.

I'm hoping to get a good look at Compher.

I've come around a bit on Rychel, just because I have a gut feeling we take him if he's there.

I think the way you listed those 5 is how I'd draft them. Zykov then Petan the other 3 IMO are pretty close. I think Kilmchuk is the more skilled of he and Rychel.

Not sold on Hagg either, seems like another 'decent' swede who gets love because he's a swede.
Well at least with Rychel he can go the Saad route to the AHL with his late birthday

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04-13-2013, 09:20 PM
  #118
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
Why the Klimchuk dislike? Good player definitely on par with the listed players there.
------
Been away for a bit. Nice lists bleach clean.

I'd like to add Bowey to the 'do not draft list' as he seems to be elevating his stock. I'm just not sold on his hockey sense.

Don't know enough about Bowey. Will have to do more research.

Essentially, yes, I am trying to construct a "do draft list" vs a "do _not_ draft list" given the picks we are likely to see in our range. Those that fall above our range in the 20 and under group would be clear fallers and the team shouldn't pass them up. By doing this, we can have a clearer picture of how the draft is going on the day itself. We can immediately recognize "mistakes" or "reaches" as the draft progresses. And get a better sense what we have to look forward to as VAN's pick nears.


Quote:
I want smart, competitive players.

I'm hoping to get a good look at Compher.

I've come around a bit on Rychel, just because I have a gut feeling we take him if he's there.

I think the way you listed those 5 is how I'd draft them. Zykov then Petan the other 3 IMO are pretty close. I think Kilmchuk is the more skilled of he and Rychel.

Not sold on Hagg either, seems like another 'decent' swede who gets love because he's a swede.


I'm like Hagg a lot. Pretty versatile Dman with good upside. Rychel I'm still not a fan of. I wouldn't mind if he's taken, depending on what else is available, but odds are someone better will be there so I hope they don't. Still don't like his hockey sense and inconsistency.

Zykov over Petan is going to be tough, considering Petan is local. I'm leaning towards Zykov, but it's definitely a question. If I was more optimistic about Petan putting on size with his frame, then I think I would lean the other way. As it stands, Zykov is the "safer" selection.

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Old
04-13-2013, 09:47 PM
  #119
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The 1st rounder is going to need to be a good selection since we'll be waiting until the late 80's for our next pick.

Hard to get excited for the draft when it's like that. Much better than 2010 I guess.

Edit* clearly stating the obvious.

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Old
04-13-2013, 09:53 PM
  #120
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The 1st rounder is going to need to be a good selection since we'll be waiting until the late 80's for our next pick.

Hard to get excited for the draft when it's like that. Much better than 2010 I guess.

Edit* clearly stating the obvious.
Too early to assume anything about our pick situation. A lot of guys that could get traded: Luongo, Booth, Ballard, Edler, rights to Raymond or Roy, etc.

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04-13-2013, 09:59 PM
  #121
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I just hope in the later rounds we pick kids from our own back yard. Western Canada produces great hockey players and its bothersome to watch other teams scoop them up off us because we're passing them up. If you're going to take a flyer might as well be on a local kid.

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Old
04-15-2013, 01:56 AM
  #122
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New ISS ratings:



http://www.isshockey.com/iss-top-30-released-for-april/

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04-15-2013, 02:05 AM
  #123
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ISS big call on Nichushkin.
Lazar at 12

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04-15-2013, 02:31 AM
  #124
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ISS big call on Nichushkin.
Lazar at 12
I know

Horvat really flew up their list too. On the other hand I wouldn't mind seeing Domi slip to us.

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Old
04-15-2013, 02:45 AM
  #125
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I know

Horvat really flew up their list too. On the other hand I wouldn't mind seeing Domi slip to us.

Lazar was always a long shot. Horvat is surprising. On that list, the right call at 25 would be Domi, but I doubt it shakes down like this. It's a value list and not a mock. My guess is that both Lazar and Domi are both highly favoured by CLB. Even Horvat. It was mentioned a while back that Jarmo hired a person from London to be a high ranked scout for them. Odds are, this will influence their selection process. So I doubt Domi or Horvat gets passed them.

Edit: Just noticed that the ISS top30 does not include Erne!

Here's a cross-section of many lists done by NHLNumbers: http://nhlnumbers.com/2013/4/13/2013...eri-nichushkin

It provides a good indication of where the value shakes out. Dickinson, Klimchuk, Petan, De La Rose, Zykov, Hartman and Compher are all there at 25 or later...


Last edited by Bleach Clean: 04-15-2013 at 03:42 AM.
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