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Old
04-17-2013, 10:16 AM
  #26
dawkins121
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DownieFaceSoftener View Post
"Your streaky defenseman for our premium pick or heralded prospect."

Wat.
You mean "your proven NHL player for our lottery ticket"

Read this:

http://thehockeywriters.com/overtime...ent-or-gamble/

Outside the top 5 picks, even 1st rounders are gambles.

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04-17-2013, 10:29 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by SchennSational1022 View Post
It does, but I disagree. Arguably Schultz is a better player right now..
One season (and a lockout shortened one at that) does not make a rookie d man better than a proven top 4 d man who has been in the league for 8 years.

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04-17-2013, 10:35 AM
  #28
SeanCWombBroom
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This year's draft might be as heralded as the best since 2003 (ironically, Coburn was taken then).

Coburn isn't worth the 7th overall. Sorry.

... and let's be realistic-- Coburn isn't playinf well.

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04-17-2013, 10:39 AM
  #29
BrindamoursNose
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Originally Posted by SchennSational1022 View Post
It does, but I disagree. Arguably Schultz is a better player right now..
Coburn had a bad season. He is still the better player though.

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04-17-2013, 10:54 AM
  #30
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Coburn has proven he is a top 4 defender in the NHL for many years, Shultz has not. As far as Shultz's potential: Coburn was being talked about as a member of the Canadian Olympic team after his first full year on the Flyers playing with Hatcher then Timonen. He was that good. Problem was he never progressed, at least offensively, from that point. Shultz looks good now but defensemen do not necessarily progress linearly; see Tyler Myers.

That being said, Coburn is not worth the 7th overall pick or Schultz. I think MPS plus a 2nd and maybe one of their middling d-prospects like Musil or Marincin. Even that is probably too much but since no UFA's want to play in Edmonton and the Flyers have no reason to trade Coburn, Edmonton should have to overpay a bit.

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04-17-2013, 10:58 AM
  #31
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Some of you guys are really underrating Schultz. Last time I checked he's leading the league in PP goals as a defensemen. Not to mention that he has an elite offensive potential, and is already showing glimpses of that. Sorry but those are way more valuable than a #3/4 defensive defensemen whose offensive capabilities are honestly embarrassing. Coburn is what he is, a defensive rock with no offense to his game, and has honestly looked like a liability this season. He was that bad. He was never a smart player either, even when he was playing at his potential. He's dumb as a ****ing rock.

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04-17-2013, 11:06 AM
  #32
Jack de la Hoya
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I don't see how trading Coburn for MPS + a 2nd or some similar packages helps the Flyers.

Can someone enlighten me?

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04-17-2013, 11:18 AM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Jack de la Hoya View Post
I don't see how trading Coburn for MPS + a 2nd or some similar packages helps the Flyers.

Can someone enlighten me?
It doesn't but they were asking the value of a Coburn trade with Edmonton, which is a poor trading partner with the Flyers. This summer is going to be intersting though. The Fyers only have 9 forwards signed for next year and under $800 thousand in cap space. Buying out Briere will give them another $6.5 mil, but bringing in any notable free agent will eat up most of that hit. I think another big salary could be moved and out of Coburn, Mezz, and Grossman, Coburn is probably the only one other teams would trade for.

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04-17-2013, 11:20 AM
  #34
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Would like to give Coburn another season before moving..unless overpayment is involved.

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04-17-2013, 11:28 AM
  #35
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If you argue that Edmonton wants to win now then Coburn and Talbot for your 1st and say, Musil, is a good deal for Edmonton. There is no free agent available as good as Coburn. Might be people available for trade but they would probably cost roster players for the Oilers.

Coburn for Schultz is ridiculous. They may be similar talents (arguable), but in value, an uninjured, younger, cheaper Schultz has way more value.

With some of the teams (Florida is the best example) who could win the lottery, 2 high #1's could be attractive, allowing the Flyers to make a deal and take Jones.

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04-17-2013, 11:29 AM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Psuhockey View Post
It doesn't but they were asking the value of a Coburn trade with Edmonton, which is a poor trading partner with the Flyers. This summer is going to be intersting though. The Fyers only have 9 forwards signed for next year and under $800 thousand in cap space. Buying out Briere will give them another $6.5 mil, but bringing in any notable free agent will eat up most of that hit. I think another big salary could be moved and out of Coburn, Mezz, and Grossman, Coburn is probably the only one other teams would trade for.
Eh, other than maybe 2/3LW, the open forward slots are on the fourth line, and shouldn't cost much to fill. Between Briere's butout and the 10 percent cushion / Pronger's LTIR, I don't see any cap issue this year.

The only way they would have to move salary to clear the cap would be if they are unwilling to buyout Briere for some reason.

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04-17-2013, 11:51 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by DownieFaceSoftener View Post
This year's draft might be as heralded as the best since 2003 (ironically, Coburn was taken then).

Coburn isn't worth the 7th overall. Sorry.

... and let's be realistic-- Coburn isn't playinf well.
Yeah, you're probably right. Teams are better off gambling with the pick. Who knows, the 7th overall might turn into a solid top 4 d-man. Maybe even the next Brayden Coburn!

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04-17-2013, 12:01 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hckyplayer8 View Post
Would like to give Coburn another season before moving..unless overpayment is involved.
Wait a year and he inches towards rent-a-player status [UFA after 2015-16] and his value plummets accordingly.

Curiously, he may never net more in a trade that he would net immediately after this season. His three remaining years come at a 13.5 mil cap-hit. This year alone was 5.5 mil.

Salary cap's contracting. Although I'm okay with Coburn staying in Philly, if Philly's offered a top-4 defenseman with some youth and offensive ability, and can trim payroll in the transaction, I'd listen...

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04-17-2013, 12:04 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by dawkins121 View Post
Yeah, you're probably right. Teams are better off gambling with the pick. Who knows, the 7th overall might turn into a solid top 4 d-man. Maybe even the next Brayden Coburn!
Right now Coburn is a 3 or 4 on this team. And an inconsistent one. A 7th overall pick is worth more than a middle pairing defenseman. He has no offense.

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Old
04-17-2013, 12:05 PM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawkins121 View Post
You mean "your proven NHL player for our lottery ticket"

Read this:

http://thehockeywriters.com/overtime...ent-or-gamble/

Outside the top 5 picks, even 1st rounders are gambles.
Top 5's are pretty much guarantees, but 6-15 are pretty great as well, and 16-25 have a great chance of success, after that it gets a bit more up in the air, but still the chance of getting a good player has an extremely high correlation with picking higher.

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1395481

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04-17-2013, 12:08 PM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawkins121 View Post
Yeah, you're probably right. Teams are better off gambling with the pick. Who knows, the 7th overall might turn into a solid top 4 d-man. Maybe even the next Brayden Coburn!
6th-10th overall has a 25% chance of being an all star player, 40~% of playing 700 games and 60%~ of making 400 games.

So 25%~ chance of being better than him, and probably 40% chance of being equal to him.

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04-17-2013, 12:10 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by Appleyard View Post
6th-10th overall has a 25% chance of being an all star player, 40~% of playing 700 games and 60%~ of making 400 games.
So, basically, a 6-10th has a 25 percent chance of being a better player than Coburn, and a 50 percent chance of being a worse player?

Coburn is 28 years old and 550+ NHL games....

You basically just proved the poster's point.

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04-17-2013, 12:14 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by Jack de la Hoya View Post
So, basically, a 6-10th has a 25 percent chance of being a better player than Coburn, and a 50 percent chance of being a worse player?

Coburn is 28 years old and 550+ NHL games....

You basically just proved the poster's point.
Yeh, thats fine, at no point did I say I was opposing his point, just giving more figures to the other article, a 7th is probably worth less than Coburn in real terms.

Coburn does not have 550+ though, (that list only includes reg season, unfair to discriminate against players on poor teams.) but he is pretty much guaranteed to get 700.

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04-17-2013, 12:15 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Appleyard View Post
Yeh, thats fine, at no point did I say I was opposing his point, just giving more in depth figures, a 7th is probably worth less than Coburn in real terms.

Coburn does not have 550+ though, (that list only includes reg season, unfair to discriminate against players on poor teams.) but he is pretty much guaranteed to get 700.
Fair enough. 500 games at 28 years old then.

I'm not saying I wouldn't move Coburn for the 7th if there was a player there that the team really coveted--but I'm not sure how people can say that the 7th is some sort of massive overpayment in value terms, as a generalization.

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04-17-2013, 12:18 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by Jack de la Hoya View Post
Fair enough. 500 games at 28 years old then.
Yeh, he will almost certainly reach the 700.

In doing the analysis of draft picks the one thing I really saw was that fans especially, and in some cases GM's, massively overate draft picks. Obviously it is important to have a good farm with potential en masse, but people (like in the Mason deal!) think mid round draft picks are worth more than an actual NHL player a lot of the time.

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04-17-2013, 12:25 PM
  #46
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Eh, other than maybe 2/3LW, the open forward slots are on the fourth line, and shouldn't cost much to fill. Between Briere's butout and the 10 percent cushion / Pronger's LTIR, I don't see any cap issue this year.

The only way they would have to move salary to clear the cap would be if they are unwilling to buyout Briere for some reason.
If they are active at all in he UFA market, any name free against is going to run them close to $5 mil. Streit wants $5.5 x 3 yrs and will get it if not more. Tyler Bozak is shooting for $5 mil. So there goes the entire sum of Briere's buyout. 3 fourth line guys are to run you just under $2 mil, unless Laughton makes the team at $1.1 mil. The Flyers do have Prongers LTIR hit, but they have to be below cap on day one, so I guess they could send down Schenn/Couturier/Laughton on paper to get under that but then they won't be able to bank any cap space for trades later in the year and it could hurt with performance bonuses next summer when they have to sign Giroux, B.Schenn, Read, and Couturier. It is not a good situation to use Prongers LTIR hit from day one of the season.

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04-17-2013, 12:32 PM
  #47
Jack de la Hoya
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If they are active at all in he UFA market, any name free against is going to run them close to $5 mil. Streit wants $5.5 x 3 yrs and will get it if not more. Tyler Bozak is shooting for $5 mil. So there goes the entire sum of Briere's buyout. 3 fourth line guys are to run you just under $2 mil, unless Laughton makes the team at $1.1 mil. The Flyers do have Prongers LTIR hit, but they have to be below cap on day one, so I guess they could send down Schenn/Couturier/Laughton on paper to get under that but then they won't be able to bank any cap space for trades later in the year and it could hurt with performance bonuses next summer when they have to sign Giroux, B.Schenn, Read, and Couturier. It is not a good situation to use Prongers LTIR hit from day one of the season.
Well, I don't imagine they are going to sign anyone at $5+ in free agency--if they did, you're right, they would have to move salary. But what's the point of trading Coburn to sign Streit?

In any case, I think you're math is off a bit somewhere.

Quote:
FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.750m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Jakub Voracek ($4.250m)
Simon Gagne ($3.500m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.110m) / Wayne Simmonds ($3.975m)
Maxime Talbot ($1.750m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Matt Read ($0.900m)
Scott Laughton ($1.138m) / Adam Hall ($0.750m) / Zac Rinaldo ($0.750m)
Jay Rosehill ($0.650m) /
Tye McGinn ($0.775m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.000m) / Luke Schenn ($3.600m)
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Erik Gustafsson ($0.975m)
Bruno Gervais ($0.825m) /
Chris Pronger ($4.936m) /
GOALTENDERS
Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.667m)
Steve Mason ($1.500m)
OTHER
Buyout: Oskars Bartulis ($0.100m)
Buyout: Danny Briere ($0.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $67,024,881; BONUSES: $3,012,500
CAP SPACE (24-man roster): $287,619
And that includes slightly-larger-than-necessary raises for Rinaldo, Hall, and Rosehill, and assumes Gagne is re-signed at his current hit of $3.5 (which I don't expect). There are two extra forwards and an extra defenseman. If you assume Gagne takes at least some sort of paycut and that you only need one extra forward, there's probably $1.5 million more free. In either case, Pronger isn't on LTIR.

EDIT: If you want them to go after a top-six forward (Horton), then obviously Gagne wouldn't be resigned. Things get a bit tighter (Laughton might have to be returned to juniors), but I'm not seeing the problem for next year.

EDIT #2: I'm not sure about the LTIR on Day 1 thing. I thought that you could use LTIR from the first official day of the season, which means that it wouldn't be necessary to do the paper manipulation that you've suggested. As soon as the offseason cushion expires, LTIR is an option, right?


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Old
04-17-2013, 12:45 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by Jack de la Hoya View Post
Well, I don't imagine they are going to sign anyone at $5+ in free agency--if they did, you're right, they would have to move salary. But what's the point of trading Coburn to sign Streit?

In any case, I think you're math is off a bit somewhere.



And that includes slightly-larger-than-necessary raises for Rinaldo, Hall, and Rosehill, and assumes Gagne is re-signed at his current hit of $3.5 (which I don't expect). There are two extra forwards and an extra defenseman. And Pronger isn't on LTIR.

EDIT: If you want them to go after a top-six forward (Horton), then obviously Gagne wouldn't be resigned. Things get a bit tighter (Laughton might have to be returned to juniors), but I'm not seeing the problem for next year.

EDIT #2: I'm not sure about the LTIR on Day 1 thing. I thought that you could use LTIR from the first official day of the season, which means that it wouldn't be necessary to do the paper manipulation that you've suggested. As soon as the offseason cushion expires, LTIR is an option, right?
As far as the paper thing, I was assuming that the Flyers would use the extra 10% space in the offseason to sign someone and then put Pronger on LTIR to be cap compliant. But Pronger must be on the roster on day for cap reasons so to make up the 10%, someone must be place on the AHL roster on paper on that day too. You have to be complaint first before you can put Pronger on LTIR.

You are correct that they would be fine bringing back that roster next year but that is the exact same roster as they have now. I am expecting changes, especially on defense, at least on player. If it is a trade, well then salary will probably go out. If its UFA, another big contract will have to be moved.

The other thing to worry about is the bonuses. If those bonus exceed the salary cap, which it will once Pronger is placed in LTIR, then they count next year as dead space. So that would be $3 million locked up that they could use to sign those big players. Happend with JVR that I think $1 mill plus was off the books to start the next season.

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04-17-2013, 12:51 PM
  #49
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As far as the paper thing, I was assuming that the Flyers would use the extra 10% space in the offseason to sign someone and then put Pronger on LTIR to be cap compliant. But Pronger must be on the roster on day for cap reasons so to make up the 10%, someone must be place on the AHL roster on paper on that day too. You have to be complaint first before you can put Pronger on LTIR.
Are you sure? You could be right, but this just doesn't seem to make sense.

Take a team with no LTIR candidates. They use their full 10 percent cushion in the offseason. On day 1 of the new season, they slide ELCs back to juniors or waiver-exempt players to the AHL, no? They aren't cap compliant before Day 1--they become cap compliant on Day 1.

Isn't that the same for LTIR?

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04-17-2013, 01:45 PM
  #50
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Originally Posted by Jack de la Hoya View Post
Are you sure? You could be right, but this just doesn't seem to make sense.

Take a team with no LTIR candidates. They use their full 10 percent cushion in the offseason. On day 1 of the new season, they slide ELCs back to juniors or waiver-exempt players to the AHL, no? They aren't cap compliant before Day 1--they become cap compliant on Day 1.

Isn't that the same for LTIR?
I am no CBA expert but I believe at whatever time the season starts, Chris Pronger's salary counts against the cap. So before that start time, the Flyers have to be cap complaint, so any use of the 10% has to be gone at that time. Once the season begins, Pronger can go immediately on LTIR. Then his 4.9 mil becomes eligible to use. That's my understanding of it.

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