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Old
12-28-2003, 01:33 PM
  #1
Lowetide
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Wild Thing, You Make My Heart Sink.

I was looking through the Minnesota Wild 2000-2003 drafts and decided to compare the Wild and the Oilers in these 4 draft seasons.

Here's the Wild picks in the first three rounds each season:
#3-Marion Gaborik (2000)
33-Nick Schultz (2000)
#6-Mikko Koivu (2001)
36-Kyle Wanvig (2001)
74-Chris Heid (2001)
93-Stephane Veilleux (2001)
#8-Pierre-Marc Bouchard (2002)
38-Josh Harding (2002)
72-Mike Erickson (2002)
73-Barry Brust (2002)
20-Brent Burns (2003)
56-Patrick O'Sullivan (2003)
78-Dan Irmen (2003)


Here's the Oilers picks PLUS acquisitions for the same seasons:
#5-Raffi Torres (2000)
17-Alexei Mikhnov (2000)
35-Brad Winchester (2000)
83-Alexander Ljubimov (2000)
13-Ales Hemsky (2001)
27-Jeff Woywitka (2001)
43-Doug Lynch (2001)
52-Ed Caron (2001)
84-Kenny Smith (2001)
15-Jesse Niinimaki (2002)
31-Jeff Deslauriers (2002)
36-Jarret Stoll (2002)
44-Matthew Greene (2002)
79-Brock Radunske (2002)
22-Marc Antoine Pouliot (2003)
51-Colin McDonald (2003)
68-Jean Francois Jacques (2003)
72-Mishail Joukov (2003)
94-Zach Stortini (2003)


Total Picks in the First Three Rounds: Edmonton 19, Minnesota 13
Total Top 10 Picks: Minnesota 3, Edmonton 1
11-20: Edmonton 3, Minnesota 0
21-30: Edmonton 2, Minnesota 1
Certain Home Run Picks: Minnesota 1 (Gaborik)
Possible Home Run Picks: Minnesota 5 (Koivu, Bouchard, Harding, Burns O'Sullivan) Edmonton 3 (Torres, Hemsky, Deslauriers)
Safe Picks (very likely to succeed at some level in the NHL): Edmonton 4(Woywitka, Lynch, Stoll, Pouliot ) Minnesota 1 (Schultz)


Okay, if you don't agree with where I've slotted them, move them around I don't care (I honestly don't have any idea if Nick Shultz is a safer bet than Jeff Woywitka, for example).


Okay, once you've moved them around I have some questions:

1. Who has drafted better?

2. How far is the gap?

3. Do you prefer the Oilers drafting style, or Minnesota's?

4. What is the value of a top 5 pick, iyo? Is it worth two late second rounders? And don't say depending on the year, because that isn't what I want to hear!

5. If there was an expansion draft, and you could protect only 5 names from the above Oilers list, who would those 5 players be?

6. Is there any player drafted by Minnesota AFTER a particular Edmonton pick that pisses you off? If so, how many are there and why do you feel that way.


Thanks.

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Old
12-28-2003, 01:44 PM
  #2
Cujo_31
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1. Who has drafted better?
Minny (but they've had higher picks)

2. How far is the gap?
really close

3. Do you prefer the Oilers drafting style, or Minnesota's?
Oilers

4. What is the value of a top 5 pick, iyo? Is it worth two late second rounders? And don't say depending on the year, because that isn't what I want to hear!

i'd rather have a top 5 pick rather then two late 2nd rdrs

5. If there was an expansion draft, and you could protect only 5 names from the above Oilers list, who would those 5 players be? Hemsky, Torres, Lynch, Woywitka, Deslauriers

other consideration: Marc-Antoine Pouliot, Jarrett Stoll & Jesse Ninimaki


6. Is there any player drafted by Minnesota AFTER a particular Edmonton pick that pisses you off? If so, how many are there and why do you feel that way.
no.

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12-28-2003, 02:13 PM
  #3
momentai
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If we do include the 2000 prospects for Minnesota, you'd probably have to include Wallin as he is one of their top prospects at this point in time. Matt Foy could also be included as well.

Suffice it to say, we know the Oilers' prospects better than the Minnesota ones.

Also, it should be noted that the Oilers have had more players that they've had to trade due to budget concerns (Weight, Guerin, Niinimaa, etc. ) than the Wild have had to deal with. Those deals essentially brought back young players and either picks/prospects.

Hecht ultimately lead to Stoll/Deslaurier... It can surmised that Guerin indirectly resulted in Hemsky... Niinimaa landed Torres. Hamrlik for Brewer and that second rounder that resulted in Winchester. And things of that nature. I'm not all that sure a comparison to the two clubs can be ultimately made between the two clubs.

On one hand, the Oilers have dealt for more prospects/picks and has had the talent to do so while the Wild have not. Also, the Wild have had the benefit of drafting high prior to last season... something the Oilers cannot say they share in common.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowetide
1. Who has drafted better?
Tough call here. The Wild have had much better picks in a range where they could draft an impact player while the Oilers have not. Either way, I'm not sure I'm in a position to judge.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowetide
2. How far is the gap?
Probably not far whatsoever.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowetide
4. What is the value of a top 5 pick, iyo? Is it worth two late second rounders? And don't say depending on the year, because that isn't what I want to hear!
Top 5 pick is worth quite a lot more than 2 second rounders especially late ones at that. Why? I'm not sure who made up the numbers... Maybe it was you LT? But the probability of drafting an impact or even an NHL player in the top 5 is greatly higher than drafting one in the late second round. It is that discrepancy in likelihood that makes the first rounder so much more valuable.

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Old
12-28-2003, 02:39 PM
  #4
Lowetide
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Quote:
Originally Posted by momentai
I'm not all that sure a comparison to the two clubs can be ultimately made between the two clubs.

On one hand, the Oilers have dealt for more prospects/picks and has had the talent to do so while the Wild have not. Also, the Wild have had the benefit of drafting high prior to last season... something the Oilers cannot say they share in common.

__________________________________________________ _______

Top 5 pick is worth quite a lot more than 2 second rounders especially late ones at that. Why? I'm not sure who made up the numbers... Maybe it was you LT? But the probability of drafting an impact or even an NHL player in the top 5 is greatly higher than drafting one in the late second round. It is that discrepancy in likelihood that makes the first rounder so much more valuable.

On the first point, yeah I agree there's no real value to doing this, it just seemed to me that Lowe was attempting to move his 'cluster' of quality players into the (more affordable) future. As Minnesota is a leading club in terms of future growth, I thought it might be an idea to balance their early drafting advantage with the Oilers throwing a man overboard every 4 months or so. Not scientific, but fun.

Second point, I have no idea what a top 5 pick is worth, but the Oilers are going into this draft with some dynamite trade bait. A top 15 pick seems certain, PLUS the Flyers pick. So if they end up with a number 11 and number 26 pick, does that get them to Cam Barker if one of those dysfunctional teams has a pick in the top 5 and their GM is drinking the free booze on the Friday Night?

That kind of thing.

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Old
12-28-2003, 03:17 PM
  #5
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I'd bump Hemsky up to the category of certain home run picks... there isn't anything wrong with his game that can't be corrected with minimal tweaking.

i.e. there is no attitude problems, he doesn't think he is more important than the team, etc... His major problem earlier was shooting the puck, which he has drastically improved on.

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Old
12-28-2003, 03:50 PM
  #6
momentai
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
On the first point, yeah I agree there's no real value to doing this, it just seemed to me that Lowe was attempting to move his 'cluster' of quality players into the (more affordable) future. As Minnesota is a leading club in terms of future growth, I thought it might be an idea to balance their early drafting advantage with the Oilers throwing a man overboard every 4 months or so. Not scientific, but fun.
Sure. I see that. It's fun to speculate. I might have just brought too much realism into this discussion. But hey. That's me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
Second point, I have no idea what a top 5 pick is worth, but the Oilers are going into this draft with some dynamite trade bait. A top 15 pick seems certain, PLUS the Flyers pick. So if they end up with a number 11 and number 26 pick, does that get them to Cam Barker if one of those dysfunctional teams has a pick in the top 5 and their GM is drinking the free booze on the Friday Night?
Frankly, a top 5 pick's value proabably fluctuates depending on the GM involved. It pained me to see the #4 overall go to Philly for Fedotenko.. but in normal circumstances the pick is often worth more than the player chosen. It's probably because that the pick allows for more options with who to choose and what to do with it. After the draft, the pick is simply a prospect albeit a good one.

As for the Oilers' 2 first rounders... I'm not sure if Lowe is going to be willing to give up what it takes. L.A. didn't last year and I'd say they did pretty well all things considered selecting Dustin Brown and Jeff Tambellini. It's more likely the Oilers will keep what they have because the worth of those top picks is probably too much for Lowe to make the risk on IMO.

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12-28-2003, 03:56 PM
  #7
The Rage
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Quote:
Originally Posted by momentai

Frankly, a top 5 pick's value proabably fluctuates depending on the GM involved. It pained me to see the #4 overall go to Philly for Fedotenko.. but in normal circumstances the pick is often worth more than the player chosen. It's probably because that the pick allows for more options with who to choose and what to do with it. After the draft, the pick is simply a prospect albeit a good one.
That's an excellent point. That's probably one reason why there's alot of wheeling and dealing of picks before they're chosen, but not so much afterwards.

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Old
12-28-2003, 04:23 PM
  #8
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1. Who has drafted better?
Minnesota

2. How far is the gap?
They are really close, Gaborik gives Minnesota the edge

3. Do you prefer the Oilers drafting style, or Minnesota's?
Edmonton´s

4. What is the value of a top 5 pick, iyo? Is it worth two late second rounders? And don't say depending on the year, because that isn't what I want to hear!
A top 5 pick would be my choice, without a doubt.

5. If there was an expansion draft, and you could protect only 5 names from the above Oilers list, who would those 5 players be?
Hemsky, Deslaurieres, Niinimäki, Woywitka, Stoll

6. Is there any player drafted by Minnesota AFTER a particular Edmonton pick that pisses you off? If so, how many are there and why do you feel that way.
Maybe i would have picked O´Sullivan with the 51st choice in 2003 and tradet a little bit up to get McDonald for sure. I do like the McDonald signing, but passing on O´Sullivan could be a fault. If a guy is worth a early gamble, then my call would be O´Sullivan.

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Old
12-29-2003, 09:17 AM
  #9
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1. Who has drafted better? Minnesota

2. How far is the gap? Close

3. Do you prefer the Oilers drafting style, or Minnesota's? This year's "Big Good. Me Like Big" Philosophy drives me nuts.(Minnesota)

4. What is the value of a top 5 pick, iyo? Is it worth two late second rounders? And don't say depending on the year, because that isn't what I want to hear! A top 5 pick is worth close to two late firsts IMO.

5. If there was an expansion draft, and you could protect only 5 names from the above Oilers list, who would those 5 players be? Hemsky, Torres, Stoll, Woywitka, Deslauriers

6. Is there any player drafted by Minnesota AFTER a particular Edmonton pick that pisses you off? If so, how many are there and why do you feel that way. Patrick O'Sullivan. You pass on a homerun at 51 is a stupid move by the Oilers and anyone(Aside from the Bruins at 45 ) that left him in the 2nd round is probably mistaken.

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Old
12-29-2003, 12:23 PM
  #10
nucks2001
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I don't know if it is fair to include prospects that you've traded for when comparing to an expansion team like Minnesota. Edmonton had assets to trade to get those extra prospects, Minnesota had nothing of the sort. No Niinimaas or Comries etc.

 
Old
12-29-2003, 01:04 PM
  #11
Mizral
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Quote:
Okay, once you've moved them around I have some questions:

1. Who has drafted better?
Minnesota, without a doubt.

Quote:
2. How far is the gap?
Between drafted players? Well, then you have to take out Woywita and Torres there, so yes, the Wild drafting system has produced lots of players. 3 years in a row they have had a 19 year old playing for their team (or younger), and they routinely load up the WJC's. If you are factoring in trades, the Wild still have an edge, but it's not exactly monumental. With Gaborik though, the difference is noticable.

Quote:
3. Do you prefer the Oilers drafting style, or Minnesota's?
Well, Minnesota's - more successful NHL'ers. Though I should add.. I know many people will look at this and say it's just me going off on my standard, 'I think Kevin Lowe is an average GM' speel, but it's less that, and more about the fact that I think the Wild have a very, very underrated group of prospects. More on this later on in the post.

Quote:
4. What is the value of a top 5 pick, iyo? Is it worth two late second rounders? And don't say depending on the year, because that isn't what I want to hear!
The value of a top 5 pick is about the worth of a #10 overall pick + a 2nd round pick in the top half of the second round. It depends on the year though (yeah I know you didn't want to hear it). This year, a #4 pick has a LOT more value than a #7 pick. Last year, didn't matter quite so much.

Quote:
5. If there was an expansion draft, and you could protect only 5 names from the above Oilers list, who would those 5 players be?
Ales Hemsky, Jeff Woywitka, Raffi Torres, Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers, and Jarrett Stoll.

Quote:
6. Is there any player drafted by Minnesota AFTER a particular Edmonton pick that pisses you off? If so, how many are there and why do you feel that way.
This is a toughie. Okay, I guess I thought the Oilers could have taken Burns who, so far as I see, would be a big, big team need. I also would have loved to see Harding taken, but you can't go wrong with Deslauriers. Shultz was a steal. Hindsight is 20/20 mind you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
I was looking through the Minnesota Wild 2000-2003 drafts and decided to compare the Wild and the Oilers in these 4 draft seasons.

Here's the Wild picks in the first three rounds each season:
#3-Marion Gaborik (2000)
33-Nick Schultz (2000)
#6-Mikko Koivu (2001)
36-Kyle Wanvig (2001)
74-Chris Heid (2001)
93-Stephane Veilleux (2001)
#8-Pierre-Marc Bouchard (2002)
38-Josh Harding (2002)
72-Mike Erickson (2002)
73-Barry Brust (2002)
20-Brent Burns (2003)
56-Patrick O'Sullivan (2003)
78-Dan Irmen (2003)


Here's the Oilers picks PLUS acquisitions for the same seasons:
#5-Raffi Torres (2000)
17-Alexei Mikhnov (2000)
35-Brad Winchester (2000)
83-Alexander Ljubimov (2000)
13-Ales Hemsky (2001)
27-Jeff Woywitka (2001)
43-Doug Lynch (2001)
52-Ed Caron (2001)
84-Kenny Smith (2001)
15-Jesse Niinimaki (2002)
31-Jeff Deslauriers (2002)
36-Jarret Stoll (2002)
44-Matthew Greene (2002)
79-Brock Radunske (2002)
22-Marc Antoine Pouliot (2003)
51-Colin McDonald (2003)
68-Jean Francois Jacques (2003)
72-Mishail Joukov (2003)
94-Zach Stortini (2003)


Total Picks in the First Three Rounds: Edmonton 19, Minnesota 13
Total Top 10 Picks: Minnesota 3, Edmonton 1
11-20: Edmonton 3, Minnesota 0
21-30: Edmonton 2, Minnesota 1
Certain Home Run Picks: Minnesota 1 (Gaborik)
Possible Home Run Picks: Minnesota 5 (Koivu, Bouchard, Harding, Burns O'Sullivan) Edmonton 3 (Torres, Hemsky, Deslauriers)
Safe Picks (very likely to succeed at some level in the NHL): Edmonton 4(Woywitka, Lynch, Stoll, Pouliot ) Minnesota 1 (Schultz)


Okay, if you don't agree with where I've slotted them, move them around I don't care (I honestly don't have any idea if Nick Shultz is a safer bet than Jeff Woywitka, for example).
I said it before, but remember that Torres and Woywitka were traded for - they weren't draft picks.

Anyways, across the board, I think you can compare a bunch of the prospects. Mikko Koivu to Marc-Antoine Pouliot is decent (Koivu has been a slight bit of a dissapointment since his draft). Harding and Deslauriers are on roughly the same level (Harding is a bit ahead [made the WJC team over Jeff]).

However, let's take that list and cut the 'chaff' and see what we have left.

Cut: Kyle Wanvig, Chris Heid, Stephane Veilleux, Mike Erickson, Barry Brust, Dan Irmen
Cut - Mikhnov, Winchester, Ljubimov, Lynch, Caron, Smith, Greene, Radunske, McDonald, Jacques, Joukov, Sortini
(Not saying those are bad prospects, just saying they obviously aren't on the same level as those above)

What are you left with?

Hemsky, Deslauriers, Stoll, Pouliot, Niinimaki (Torres and Woywitka if you like)

Gaborik, Bouchard, Burns, Koivu, Shultz, Harding, O'Sullivan (you could also include Dupuis if you were including Torres and Woywitka.)

Look down the list? You've got the top two guys (Hemsky versus Gaborik), goaltenders (Deslauriers versus Harding), 2nd round picks (O'Sullivan versus Stoll), Finnish stars (Koivu and Niinimaki), skilled centremen (Bouchard and Pouliot), defensemen (Shultz and Woywitka) and hard-nosed forwards (Burns and Torres). Didn't include Dupuis.

Out of those comparisons, what players would you prefer? For me, the Wild take 'em all but 1 - I'd rather have Woywitka and Shultz. Is this only to do with the Wild having higher picks? Maybe, maybe not. But the Wild certainly have more young talent than the Oilers, no matter how you cut it.

PS: The real superstar of this group, I feel, is going to be Peirre-Marc Bouchard. I've seen him play a few times now, and boy oh boy he is so good out there. I could really see him as one of the top centremen in the league someday. He has it all but size, but he's so shifty I don't know if it'll be a big issue for him. Obviously Gaborik is the more hyped of the two so far, but I feel that it's possible that Bouchard is even better than Gaborik someday.

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12-29-2003, 01:05 PM
  #12
Lowetide
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nucks2001
I don't know if it is fair to include prospects that you've traded for when comparing to an expansion team like Minnesota. Edmonton had assets to trade to get those extra prospects, Minnesota had nothing of the sort. No Niinimaas or Comries etc.

Yeah, I think the inclusion of Woywitka and Torres certainly makes it less than a fair fight. Having said that, even WITH that unfair advantage the Wild still have a slightly stronger list imo.

On the other side of that coin is the draft advantage Minnesota enjoyed in 2000-2002 (specifically the first round).

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12-29-2003, 01:19 PM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mizral
However, let's take that list and cut the 'chaff' and see what we have left.

Cut: Kyle Wanvig, Chris Heid, Stephane Veilleux, Mike Erickson, Barry Brust, Dan Irmen
Cut - Mikhnov, Winchester, Ljubimov, Lynch, Caron, Smith, Greene, Radunske, McDonald, Jacques, Joukov, Sortini
How can you cut both Mikhnov and Lynch? Mikhnov has yet to set foot in North America (though it is likely he'll be here next year) and he's having a great year in the top Russian league on a terrible team.. likewise, Lynch is doing great down in the AHL and showing a lot of offensive potential..

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12-29-2003, 01:51 PM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cerebral
How can you cut both Mikhnov and Lynch? Mikhnov has yet to set foot in North America (though it is likely he'll be here next year) and he's having a great year in the top Russian league on a terrible team.. likewise, Lynch is doing great down in the AHL and showing a lot of offensive potential..
All due respect, what Mikhnov is doing in the RSL does not make him any more of an NHL'er than what he was doing before. He's 21 or 22 now, and those numbers for his age group are indicitive of guys who don't play in the NHL. Case in point - Sergei Zinovjev last year. He had very nice numbers in the RSL as a 22 year old, but wasn't able to make the B's for any more than a couple games before going back to Siberia.

I like Lynch too, but he's still an 'out there' prospect, as is Wanvig and a couple other Wild prospects. He doesn't belong with the other group.

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12-29-2003, 02:18 PM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mizral
All due respect, what Mikhnov is doing in the RSL does not make him any more of an NHL'er than what he was doing before. He's 21 or 22 now, and those numbers for his age group are indicitive of guys who don't play in the NHL. Case in point - Sergei Zinovjev last year. He had very nice numbers in the RSL as a 22 year old, but wasn't able to make the B's for any more than a couple games before going back to Siberia.

I like Lynch too, but he's still an 'out there' prospect, as is Wanvig and a couple other Wild prospects. He doesn't belong with the other group.
Fact is, Mikhnov's skill set is more suited to the NHL game than the Russian game. Since the RSL is the second best league in the world, Mikhnov is the best player (highest scorer) on his team, Mikhnov is still very young, and Mikhnov is better suited to the NHL game--I think it's fair to say he is a high level prospect. As for Lynch, his numbers this year are better than Woywitka's. He's seems to be proving himself.

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12-29-2003, 08:07 PM
  #16
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Why is mention of Kyle..

Brodziak left out of this thread.. I think that he could turn out roses.. just like PM Bouchard..

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12-29-2003, 08:22 PM
  #17
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Great post Lowtide.

1. Who has drafted better?
Minnesota. Blue-chips and home-run gambles with their first rounders.

2. How far is the gap?
Quality versus quantity. I view Minnesota having more potential elite skill upside than the Oilers. (see below).

3. Do you prefer the Oilers drafting style, or Minnesota's?
Minnesota. Brent Burns is looking like a truly inspired pick. Bouchard, Koivu, Harding all look like top tier future skill players. O'Sullivan at 56 is well worth the gamble. Add Gaborek and the Wild have a very strong core nucleus of talent.

4. What is the value of a top 5 pick, iyo? Is it worth two late second rounders? And don't say depending on the year, because that isn't what I want to hear!
One roster player and a mid-first round pick.

Editorial note: unlike many Oiler fans, I don't view Pouliot as a 'sure-thing' with his history of injury problems. He has been hurt in all three years of junior. Must get stronger. Like it or not, he is linked to a strong draft year and the fortunes of Zack Parise.

I do like many of the Oiler picks namely Hemsky (no doubt), Lynch, Stoll (wanted him in his first draft year), and I think Matt Greene will be a huge, stud defenseman. I also don't include the Oil trades for Woywitka and Torres who I also like but don't feel they belong in a comparison of drafting results.

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