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2013 Draft: Stop winnin for MacKinnon, or Do Meth for Seth?

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Old
04-17-2013, 07:21 PM
  #251
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All this hype over Jones and MacKinnon makes me sad that we're not going to get either of them.

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04-17-2013, 10:15 PM
  #252
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Originally Posted by Vagrant View Post
I think you're highly mistaken regarding opinions on Hedman prior to the draft. There were MANY sources saying that Hedman was going to be the first overall pick and there was actually even a bit of uncertainty right up until the pick was made.





This was just a cursory search. I believe numerous outlets had Hedman as the best available.

This situation reminds me quite a bit of Tavares/Hedman/Duchene but the fact that the draft is about seven deep in first class prospects makes it all the more muddled. I think Jones will eventually end up going first overall, but it's not a no brainer by any stretch of the imagination. I am.... quite literally shocked at the amount of hype that Jones has developed in such a short period of time. I have always said that fortune does not favor the prospect that stays on the radar from 15 or so on up to his draft season because scouts get too long to find something they dislike. It worked perfectly for Jones, who literally jumped out of nowhere in his 16-17 year old season, than it did for MacKinnon who was playing in front of hoards of scouts since he stepped on the ice at the QMJHL and even before. Same with Tavares, who was also an exceptional player in the OHL. If you look at a player long enough, you're going to find things you don't like about that player. With Jones, the shine hasn't worn off for a lot of scouts. No doubt he is a great prospect, but it's easier to be a great prospect when you only really have to face the challenge of junior hockey as a draft eligible.

If I had the 1st overall pick, I would trade down if Jones is as valued by the scouting community as you claim. I would bump down and take MacKinnon at 2nd or 3rd overall. I believe in his game and think that too much emphasis is being placed on a WJC performance that was just as much due to roster mismanagement as anything else.

And drafting defenders is far from an exact science. Evaluating them is ridiculously challenging. In 2008 you had Schenn, Doughty, Pietrangelo, and Bogosian in a literal dead heat and every team had them ranked in various spots. Scouts had them as far and away the best followed by a secondary tier of Myers and Karlsson. The best of the bunch ended up being the last one taken. Not saying it doesn't happen the same way with forwards, but it's far less frequent that the top two or three forwards are out of order.
Seth Jones has been getting this hype for a LONG time. If you think he's just now getting hype then you haven't been paying attention. He was always hyped as a super prospect, his "rise" to number one has more to do with MacKinnon's stock falling a bit due to injury than it does with people just now paying attention to Jones.

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04-17-2013, 10:25 PM
  #253
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Originally Posted by Vagrant View Post
I think you're highly mistaken regarding opinions on Hedman prior to the draft. There were MANY sources saying that Hedman was going to be the first overall pick and there was actually even a bit of uncertainty right up until the pick was made.





This was just a cursory search. I believe numerous outlets had Hedman as the best available.

This situation reminds me quite a bit of Tavares/Hedman/Duchene but the fact that the draft is about seven deep in first class prospects makes it all the more muddled. I think Jones will eventually end up going first overall, but it's not a no brainer by any stretch of the imagination. I am.... quite literally shocked at the amount of hype that Jones has developed in such a short period of time. I have always said that fortune does not favor the prospect that stays on the radar from 15 or so on up to his draft season because scouts get too long to find something they dislike. It worked perfectly for Jones, who literally jumped out of nowhere in his 16-17 year old season, than it did for MacKinnon who was playing in front of hoards of scouts since he stepped on the ice at the QMJHL and even before. Same with Tavares, who was also an exceptional player in the OHL. If you look at a player long enough, you're going to find things you don't like about that player. With Jones, the shine hasn't worn off for a lot of scouts. No doubt he is a great prospect, but it's easier to be a great prospect when you only really have to face the challenge of junior hockey as a draft eligible.

If I had the 1st overall pick, I would trade down if Jones is as valued by the scouting community as you claim. I would bump down and take MacKinnon at 2nd or 3rd overall. I believe in his game and think that too much emphasis is being placed on a WJC performance that was just as much due to roster mismanagement as anything else.

And drafting defenders is far from an exact science. Evaluating them is ridiculously challenging. In 2008 you had Schenn, Doughty, Pietrangelo, and Bogosian in a literal dead heat and every team had them ranked in various spots. Scouts had them as far and away the best followed by a secondary tier of Myers and Karlsson. The best of the bunch ended up being the last one taken. Not saying it doesn't happen the same way with forwards, but it's far less frequent that the top two or three forwards are out of order.
Drafting for need is different and at most times not advisable. There is no way NYI would pass up on Tavares after the season he had and the CHL records he broke. I followed that draft closely and there was no doubt in any serious experts mind of the Islanders intentions, filler media stories aside. As always the late riser Duchene was also in fluff stories as a possibility, but it was never serious.

Hedman was also a hugely different compared to Jones. He played in the SEL in his Draft year, vastly different style of play and ice surface. The WHL is the closest league to the NHL/AHL you could possibly find. Much easier to project Jones into the NHL than Hedman.

Plus, IMHO... Pietrangelo is the best D from the 2008 draft hands down. Pretty much every aspect of his game is elite level, the best all around young D in the league by a wide margin.

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04-18-2013, 12:58 AM
  #254
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I've been wrong before, on many prospects but I just have to say in agreement with vagrant that jones seems overhyped - if that's what he is saying. I watched jones play in the wjc's. to say he was awful at times is not too strong. He had his moments no doubt against Canada, of course when it truly mattered but still the overall impression left was sour. Very athletic in the sloppy over reaching skinner way, pushing when he needed patience and pulling himself out of position frequently. Am I saying he's a bust? No. That we shouldn't take him? Of course not. Just that expectations on this kid need to be tempered. I see more Eric Johnson than Chris Pronger. I'm not against him, I just don't see the fuss. I would consider mackinnon.

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04-18-2013, 03:08 AM
  #255
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicago Made Punk View Post
Seth Jones has been getting this hype for a LONG time. If you think he's just now getting hype then you haven't been paying attention. He was always hyped as a super prospect, his "rise" to number one has more to do with MacKinnon's stock falling a bit due to injury than it does with people just now paying attention to Jones.
Negative. I always follow the draft a few years in advance. Nathan MacKinnon was on my radar when he was a mere 14 years of age playing Bantam for Shattuck St. Mary's and drawing comparisons to Sidney Crosby already. The next big thing out of Nova Scotia. Even played for the same youth team as Crosby. He rose into a phenom FAR in advance of Seth Jones. To say that Seth Jones wasn't on the radar would be hyperbole, but he was nowhere NEAR a lock for the top 5 in his draft class whereas MacKinnon was already being scouted and dissected on these very boards if you'll search, by scouts for the CHL. All this while Seth Jones was somewhere playing Bantam in Texas. Nobody was talking about Seth Jones for 1st overall even in his WHL draft class. Everybody assumed he was headed for the NCAA like any other guy. It isn't like the blew the doors off the USNTDP either.

The attention paid to MacKinnon was the most excessive as paid to any prospect I have seen since Tavares and Crosby prior to him. The hype of Yakupov, Stamkos, RNH, etc. was nowhere near what that trio was subjected to. The hopes of an entire nation on your success in being the next generational talent. Nobody here, these boards included, knew about Seth Jones in 2009. If you can find any mention of him and the words franchise defender in the same breath prior to late 2011 then I will be beyond surprised.

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04-18-2013, 08:21 AM
  #256
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Originally Posted by Jussijuice View Post
Plus, IMHO... Pietrangelo is the best D from the 2008 draft hands down. Pretty much every aspect of his game is elite level, the best all around young D in the league by a wide margin.
Boy you sure are swinging and missing a lot lately.

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04-18-2013, 09:11 AM
  #257
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Originally Posted by Sens1Canes2 View Post
Boy you sure are swinging and missing a lot lately.
Thank you for adding your opinion of my opinion. Real compelling stuff.

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04-18-2013, 09:24 AM
  #258
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Originally Posted by Blueline Bomber View Post
All this hype over Jones and MacKinnon makes me sad that we're not going to get either of them.
A win tonight would be devastating to our chances. We'd potentially pass three teams in one night.

Let's say for a moment that we do guarantee ourselves a top 3 pick. And let's say Columbus comes to us with their three first rounders (13, 15, 24). Do we do it?

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04-18-2013, 09:37 AM
  #259
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Originally Posted by Vagrant View Post
Negative. I always follow the draft a few years in advance. Nathan MacKinnon was on my radar when he was a mere 14 years of age playing Bantam for Shattuck St. Mary's and drawing comparisons to Sidney Crosby already. The next big thing out of Nova Scotia. Even played for the same youth team as Crosby. He rose into a phenom FAR in advance of Seth Jones. To say that Seth Jones wasn't on the radar would be hyperbole, but he was nowhere NEAR a lock for the top 5 in his draft class whereas MacKinnon was already being scouted and dissected on these very boards if you'll search, by scouts for the CHL. All this while Seth Jones was somewhere playing Bantam in Texas. Nobody was talking about Seth Jones for 1st overall even in his WHL draft class. Everybody assumed he was headed for the NCAA like any other guy. It isn't like the blew the doors off the USNTDP either.

The attention paid to MacKinnon was the most excessive as paid to any prospect I have seen since Tavares and Crosby prior to him. The hype of Yakupov, Stamkos, RNH, etc. was nowhere near what that trio was subjected to. The hopes of an entire nation on your success in being the next generational talent. Nobody here, these boards included, knew about Seth Jones in 2009. If you can find any mention of him and the words franchise defender in the same breath prior to late 2011 then I will be beyond surprised.
That is my point on the matter. MacKinnon has been super-hyped as the next Crosby for years now. Like any Draft the top prospect is generally over-analyzed and his game is picked apart, while the shiny new risers come up, haven't been analyzed as much, and some people rank them higher.

In recent years it was Duchene over Tavares, Seguin over Hall, etc. Everyone still knows the top prospect is going to be picked first though.

This isn't really happening. MacKinnon is still a superb prospect that will likely be a franchise Center, Drouin is still a late riser dripping with skill and deserving of a top-3 slot, but every single Draft analyst and and Draft agency still has Jones ranked #1 as far and away the best prospect in this Draft.

Like any D he is harder to project and no doubt MacKinnon is the safer pick. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if MacKinnon was picked #1, even if the Canes were making that pick. The Canes would be incredibly fortunate to add him next year if they could. But it's hard to argue with every expert in the field saying that Jones is a cornerstone D worthy of the 1st overall pick.

I know I won't be sad if we end up with any of the big 3.

Tl:dr - MacKinnon'a good, Jones is good, Drouin is good, but JR is going to trade the pick anyway for Keith Aulie because he scored his only 2 goals this year against the Canes.

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04-18-2013, 09:52 AM
  #260
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Originally Posted by totalkev View Post
Let's say for a moment that we do guarantee ourselves a top 3 pick. And let's say Columbus comes to us with their three first rounders (13, 15, 24). Do we do it?
No chance. It would help refill our prospect pool, but when it's a Top 3, it's quality over quantity.

Frankly, I'd expect JR to trade the pick for defensive help before trading it for other picks.

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04-18-2013, 09:55 AM
  #261
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Originally Posted by Blueline Bomber View Post
No chance. It would help refill our prospect pool, but when it's a Top 3, it's quality over quantity.

Frankly, I'd expect JR to trade the pick for defensive help before trading it for other picks.
This terrifies me.

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04-18-2013, 10:08 AM
  #262
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Originally Posted by Jussijuice View Post
Thank you for adding your opinion of my opinion. Real compelling stuff.
First you came out with "Ottawa has lost in embarrassing fashion to embarrassingly bad teams" during their 5 game losing streak. Which, if you went by their last two games of the streak, would be true. However, they lost to Toronto, a playoff team, and Boston, another playoff team (and in a fantastic game which had the shots 49-47 and neither team would have been considered dominant in the game) in the first two games of the stretch, and the loss to Florida was one in which they had 40+ shots again. So basically, what you said was false. Strike one.

Next, you're all over the Seth Jones hype train, which is fine on the surface. But Vagrant and bleedgreen are among the most learned posters on this board when it comes to potential draftees. If they're saying you're off in whatever you're saying, you're off. Strike two, although you probably fouled it off.

Finally, you called Pietrangelo far and away the best d-man of the 2008 class, all of his skills are elite level, etc. Now, he's quite a good player, but to go ahead and put him not only ahead of Karlsson but FAR AND AWAY ahead? That is swinging at one in the dirt, my friend.

There you go. That is my opinion of your opinion, in a more compelling manner.

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04-18-2013, 10:33 AM
  #263
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This terrifies me.
It'd be a pretty JR move.

Depending on who he grabs, and who's available at the pick, it could work out well though.

JR's obviously got a 5-year window in mind to make a run at a Cup (based off his recent resigning), and if he believes those players available wont have a big enough impact before those 5 years are up, I can see him trading the pick.

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04-18-2013, 10:36 AM
  #264
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Originally Posted by Sens1Canes2 View Post
First you came out with "Ottawa has lost in embarrassing fashion to embarrassingly bad teams" during their 5 game losing streak. Which, if you went by their last two games of the streak, would be true. However, they lost to Toronto, a playoff team, and Boston, another playoff team (and in a fantastic game which had the shots 49-47 and neither team would have been considered dominant in the game) in the first two games of the stretch, and the loss to Florida was one in which they had 40+ shots again. So basically, what you said was false. Strike one.

Next, you're all over the Seth Jones hype train, which is fine on the surface. But Vagrant and bleedgreen are among the most learned posters on this board when it comes to potential draftees. If they're saying you're off in whatever you're saying, you're off. Strike two, although you probably fouled it off.

Finally, you called Pietrangelo far and away the best d-man of the 2008 class, all of his skills are elite level, etc. Now, he's quite a good player, but to go ahead and put him not only ahead of Karlsson but FAR AND AWAY ahead? That is swinging at one in the dirt, my friend.

There you go. That is my opinion of your opinion, in a more compelling manner.
I was in Quebec for 2 weeks during the Sens streak and the only English Channel was TSN and Ottawa/Toronto games. I don't watch much Sens hockey, but the panel was pretty down on them. The talking points "soft" and "will it ever end" and "fluke early on" we're common. I get your a Sens fan and ******** about my opinion of the Sens, but they looked about as good as the Canes over the 3-4 games I watched.

With respect to bleed and vagrant, I also follow the draft pretty closely and almost unanimously the actual experts of the industry agree with me as well as many other posters here. Although as I've said, you can't go wrong with MacKinnon. I would shed no tears if the Canes had the #1 Overall and picked him. He is a 1st line franchise Center, Jones as the best speaks to his ability, not MacKinnons lack thereof. It's like deciding the best flavor of ice cream, you want a franchise C or franchise cornerstone D?

I said Pietrangelo was the best overall D. I've said multiple times EK has him beat on offense, but in 10 years it will be Pieteangelo with 3+ Norris trophies. He has better size and plays a better 2 way game. I agree with you that most would say right now EK is better and admittedly I have been a Pietrangelo fanboy for many years, but I believe him to be the future Lidstrom legacy type. Is no disrespect to EK, I just don't believe his ppg pace from that year is sustainable. He will be one of the best D in the league for his career, just not better than Pietrangelo in the long run.

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04-18-2013, 11:11 AM
  #265
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I will add this and try to make it the last I will say regarding Jones and MacKinnon. I don't like Jones anymore than I liked Hedman before him. I think the IDEA of Jones is more attractive than what appears before the eyes. Scouts that hadn't heard of him, never watched him at 14 or 15, they see him jumping out from being a nondescript "one of the rest", in his draft class as compared to guys like MacKinnon, Monahan, Drouin, Barkov, etc. and when he makes a fairly sizable jump in tangible production, they don't have a history of perspective regarding his developmental track from having scouted him extensively in years prior. Since the draft is 100% about projection, and not current production, MacKinnon's greatness is already known. Subsequently, he is dissected with a more discerning eye. The strong parts of his game are already known so it's no use to scout those. As chatter starts to generate about his weaknesses, it offers a perfect opportunity for a dark horse candidate to steal the ink. I call it overscouting, if such a term even reconciles.

What I feel that scouts are drooling about over Jones is the jump he made from being a relative unknown, to last season being entrenched in the conversation as a top 5 selection prior to his transfer to the WHL, to what we've seen up to this point with a fairly impressive run for Team USA (whereas with Team Canada, he would have been unlikely to play such meaningful minutes as per Team Canada's outlook regarding draft eligible players) and his ascension to a somewhat consensus first overall pick. In projection, you want the player that is running through the finish line in his draft year and really claiming that selection. I simply feel that MacKinnon has run out of steam and fatigue might be a central factor in that having played as much hockey as he has. This is the first year that Jones has played a full schedule.

If we're going to use HF boards vernacular here, I see Seth Jones as something like a 9.0 D while I see MacKinnon as an 8.5 B. I feel like Jones hasn't been as critically scouted as he would have been had he stayed on the radar. Another fantastic example is Adam Larsson. While I understand the point about the SEL being another league all together and access to these players being limited, the same principal applies. I, too, am not saying that Jones is a sure fire bust. I just feel like scouts have obsessed about him to the extent that they've deified him and swept his misgivings under the rug to a degree in favor of keeping the dream alive about his monster potential. How many times do defensemen fall below expectations simply by virtue of the difficulty of the position? How many guys taken in the Top 5 end up being less than we thought they would be? Adam Larsson was the slam dunk next Lidstrom. Jack Johnson was a hybrid of Bobby Orr and Chris Chelios. Victor Hedman was getting the same Chris Pronger talk that Jones has been getting. Erik Johnson was getting it even more frequently. Karl Alzner. Thomas Hickey. In the recent past, how many of the same forwards being hyped have been less than advertised? I would contend that not many have been and most have exceeded expectations.

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04-18-2013, 11:22 AM
  #266
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Originally Posted by totalkev View Post
A win tonight would be devastating to our chances. We'd potentially pass three teams in one night.

Let's say for a moment that we do guarantee ourselves a top 3 pick. And let's say Columbus comes to us with their three first rounders (13, 15, 24). Do we do it?
Ironically, this is how the Carolina Panthers GM feels about this subject:

Carolina Panthers ‏@Panthers
Gettleman will be careful when trading down - you can miss out of a good player. "Do you want a dollar or three dimes? I'll take the buck"


It's also probably more worth it to trade down in football. I wouldn't do it.

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04-18-2013, 11:27 AM
  #267
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Ironically, this is how the Carolina Panthers GM feels about this subject:

Carolina Panthers ‏@Panthers
Gettleman will be careful when trading down - you can miss out of a good player. "Do you want a dollar or three dimes? I'll take the buck"


It's also probably more worth it to trade down in football. I wouldn't do it.
Gettlemagic.

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04-18-2013, 11:29 AM
  #268
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For what it's worth, in this draft I feel like there are about 20 guys that would be Top 10 picks in most draft years. I feel it's not as deep as 2003, but it's the best we've seen since then. I would bite my fingernails, take the picks, and target some serious upside guys in that range. I don't see the urgency in our first round pick playing in the NHL next season. As I mentioned earlier, if we need a kid of 18 to rest our heads on then we don't have a good team anyways. This system needs a wholesale restocking and passing up three swings in the deepest first round in a decade would go a long way towards that end.

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04-18-2013, 12:15 PM
  #269
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I know it's repetitive, but I'm not saying jones is a flop by any stretch. I think he's a project. Of course they all are at that age. Canes fans thinking someone like jones could come in and fix our d problems is nuts. Doughty was the best dman at 18 I've seen since bourque, and 18 year old doughty wouldn't change us in our own end. It would be a small miracle if jones came in and could be that good next year, it obviously doesn't happen very often for dmen - but even if it did its questionable how far that impact would take us.

I think jones could be a great player but right now he is not much different then all the other guys taken like him. Is he like Ej or Bogo? Will he be better or worse? Gudbranson (sp?) or petro? All these guys were high picks and its important to remember jones is being compared to Mac and drouin not these other defenseman so you can't say well Bogo wasn't number one so jones is better. Any of the above would make the canes better so jones being in the same breath as the others makes him automatically a good canes choice.

I'm just saying that from watching him he is still figuring out how to use his athleticism effectively and how to play with poise. This is not a requisite for an 18 year old dman to have down, but it is of a number one pick who people think will waltz into the NHL. Like skinner he has the skill level and the athletic skating, and I don't think remotely he'll be the head case skinner is but I do see signs he will be more on the 2 to 3 year plan than the instant impact plan. I also see signs he could end up more like some of the other dmen like Ej or Bogo level as compared to truly elite, which still makes him a very good player and worthy of a pick.

I just don't think he is a lock to be what is hype has become. I also don't think we get a dman in the top 5 without jones. I think it's, jones or Mac at one and two, barkov or drouin at three and four, lindholm than monahan. Starts getting hard to say after that.

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04-18-2013, 12:20 PM
  #270
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Just putting it out there that I would really like Darnell to Nurse this team's defence back to health.

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04-18-2013, 12:27 PM
  #271
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Quote:
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I know it's repetitive, but I'm not saying jones is a flop by any stretch. I think he's a project. Of course they all are at that age. Canes fans thinking someone like jones could come in and fix our d problems is nuts. Doughty was the best dman at 18 I've seen since bourque, and 18 year old doughty wouldn't change us in our own end. It would be a small miracle if jones came in and could be that good next year, it obviously doesn't happen very often for dmen - but even if it did its questionable how far that impact would take us.

I think jones could be a great player but right now he is not much different then all the other guys taken like him. Is he like Ej or Bogo? Will he be better or worse? Gudbranson (sp?) or petro? All these guys were high picks and its important to remember jones is being compared to Mac and drouin not these other defenseman so you can't say well Bogo wasn't number one so jones is better. Any of the above would make the canes better so jones being in the same breath as the others makes him automatically a good canes choice.

I'm just saying that from watching him he is still figuring out how to use his athleticism effectively and how to play with poise. This is not a requisite for an 18 year old dman to have down, but it is of a number one pick who people think will waltz into the NHL. Like skinner he has the skill level and the athletic skating, and I don't think remotely he'll be the head case skinner is but I do see signs he will be more on the 2 to 3 year plan than the instant impact plan. I also see signs he could end up more like some of the other dmen like Ej or Bogo level as compared to truly elite, which still makes him a very good player and worthy of a pick.

I just don't think he is a lock to be what is hype has become. I also don't think we get a dman in the top 5 without jones. I think it's, jones or Mac at one and two, barkov or drouin at three and four, lindholm than monahan. Starts getting hard to say after that.
My only objection would be not including Nichushkin in that group. The Russian factor might cause him to fall, but this kid is special. Unlike any Russian prospect to come out since Svitov. Made from the same meanness as the old reds and big enough to play that way. Deceptive skill level too. Worth waiting for, IMO.

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04-18-2013, 12:47 PM
  #272
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I had a dream. The 'Canes are picking 4th.

Mac and Drouin go first and second. The 3rd pick is Lindholm (who was a goalie in my dream). The 'Canes ascend the draft dais. Ronnie Franchise steps forward, and says, "The 'Canes are proud to select....from the Plymouth Whalers Ryan Hartman!!!".


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04-18-2013, 12:50 PM
  #273
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And to the point at hand, if we draft Jones, there is almost a 100% chance that he is coming to the NHL, ready or not.

I don't really mind that, as long as we put him on the third pairing with Harrison (the only veteran we have who seems to embrace the teaching role) and give him sheltered minutes to feel out, explore and figure out what works and what doesn't.

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04-18-2013, 12:53 PM
  #274
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Originally Posted by Vagrant View Post
I will add this and try to make it the last I will say regarding Jones and MacKinnon. I don't like Jones anymore than I liked Hedman before him. I think the IDEA of Jones is more attractive than what appears before the eyes. Scouts that hadn't heard of him, never watched him at 14 or 15, they see him jumping out from being a nondescript "one of the rest", in his draft class as compared to guys like MacKinnon, Monahan, Drouin, Barkov, etc. and when he makes a fairly sizable jump in tangible production, they don't have a history of perspective regarding his developmental track from having scouted him extensively in years prior. Since the draft is 100% about projection, and not current production, MacKinnon's greatness is already known. Subsequently, he is dissected with a more discerning eye. The strong parts of his game are already known so it's no use to scout those. As chatter starts to generate about his weaknesses, it offers a perfect opportunity for a dark horse candidate to steal the ink. I call it overscouting, if such a term even reconciles.

What I feel that scouts are drooling about over Jones is the jump he made from being a relative unknown, to last season being entrenched in the conversation as a top 5 selection prior to his transfer to the WHL, to what we've seen up to this point with a fairly impressive run for Team USA (whereas with Team Canada, he would have been unlikely to play such meaningful minutes as per Team Canada's outlook regarding draft eligible players) and his ascension to a somewhat consensus first overall pick. In projection, you want the player that is running through the finish line in his draft year and really claiming that selection. I simply feel that MacKinnon has run out of steam and fatigue might be a central factor in that having played as much hockey as he has. This is the first year that Jones has played a full schedule.

If we're going to use HF boards vernacular here, I see Seth Jones as something like a 9.0 D while I see MacKinnon as an 8.5 B. I feel like Jones hasn't been as critically scouted as he would have been had he stayed on the radar. Another fantastic example is Adam Larsson. While I understand the point about the SEL being another league all together and access to these players being limited, the same principal applies. I, too, am not saying that Jones is a sure fire bust. I just feel like scouts have obsessed about him to the extent that they've deified him and swept his misgivings under the rug to a degree in favor of keeping the dream alive about his monster potential. How many times do defensemen fall below expectations simply by virtue of the difficulty of the position? How many guys taken in the Top 5 end up being less than we thought they would be? Adam Larsson was the slam dunk next Lidstrom. Jack Johnson was a hybrid of Bobby Orr and Chris Chelios. Victor Hedman was getting the same Chris Pronger talk that Jones has been getting. Erik Johnson was getting it even more frequently. Karl Alzner. Thomas Hickey. In the recent past, how many of the same forwards being hyped have been less than advertised? I would contend that not many have been and most have exceeded expectations.
I agree with the 9.0 D vs 8.5 B. Sound reasoning, with MacKinnon you know what you are getting and forward prospects are easier to project by far. I also think MacKinnon is a better prospect than Hall, RNH, or Yakupov. Canes would be lucky to get him.

I think my list would be Jones, MacKinnon, Drouin, Barkov, Monahan, Nichushkin, Nurse, Lindholm.

I like Monahan a lot actually, if we end up 5-8 I really hope he's still on the board. Lots of promise still in that range.

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04-18-2013, 12:56 PM
  #275
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If we manage to snag one of the top 3, I will dance a jig. We have Nashville closing in and they have only 4 more games to our 6.

I'll say it again, but a loss tonight would be huge. And even if we finish 3rd, that's only roughly a 45% chance (off the top of my head) of retaining a top 3 pick.

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