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2012-13 Magic Number/Elimination Thread (5th Anniversary Edition!)

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Old
04-16-2013, 05:06 AM
  #176
Spez
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Florida can still make it technically. They'd have to run the table winning every game in regulation while the teams above them beat each other up. The rangers would have to lose their 7 games in regulation. If that happened then panther fans would go buy a lottery ticket

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Old
04-16-2013, 08:15 AM
  #177
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Florida might still technically make it through but it won't happen. Too much needs to go their way.

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Old
04-16-2013, 09:25 AM
  #178
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As Mayor Bee says though, this thread deals in absolutes, and ttechnically Florida can still make it.

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Old
04-16-2013, 09:48 AM
  #179
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post

Florida can be eliminated from the playoff race with a loss against the NY Islanders OR a win or OT/SO loss by the NY Rangers against Philadelphia
very good job Mayor Bee

ill add of the Panthers
OR a win by Winnipeg against Tampa Bay

WIN (44pts + 2, 20 ROW)
FLA (MAX 46pts, 17 ROW)

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Old
04-16-2013, 07:30 PM
  #180
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So I'm guessing the only thing keeping Florida from being technically, officially, completely eliminated is the fact that the second tiebreaker (head-to-head minus the drop) is undecided, given the first tiebreaker (ROW) would fail to break the tie, if they happen to win their remaining games in regulation or OT?

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Old
04-16-2013, 08:27 PM
  #181
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marns View Post
So I'm guessing the only thing keeping Florida from being technically, officially, completely eliminated is the fact that the second tiebreaker (head-to-head minus the drop) is undecided, given the first tiebreaker (ROW) would fail to break the tie, if they happen to win their remaining games in regulation or OT?
Right.

If Florida were to win all of their remaining games in regulation or OT, they'd have 46. Two of their games are against the NY Rangers, which would have to be won in regulation (otherwise NYR hit 47, eliminating the Panthers).

Florida already won the first game against NYR, but it's dropped. If they win the next two against the NYR in regulation (plus all the others, with the NYR losing out in regulation the rest of the way), it would:
- Have FLA and NYR tied at 46 points
- Have them tied with 17 R/OT wins
- Give Florida the H2H tiebreaker on the basis of their upcoming series against the NYR, which for the purpose of the tiebreaker hasn't even started yet.

(In about 9 minutes of game action, none of this will matter anyway)

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04-16-2013, 08:27 PM
  #182
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Quote:
Originally Posted by llamateizer View Post
very good job Mayor Bee

ill add of the Panthers
OR a win by Winnipeg against Tampa Bay

WIN (44pts + 2, 20 ROW)
FLA (MAX 46pts, 17 ROW)
Also true; thanks for catching that.

No need to adjust the original post on it...the Islanders are taking care of it as we speak.

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Old
04-17-2013, 12:33 AM
  #183
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Updated through 4/16/2013


From today...

Florida has been eliminated from the playoff race

Tampa Bay and Carolina have been eliminated from the Southeast Division race


For tomorrow...

Boston can clinch a playoff spot with a win or OT/SO loss against Buffalo

Chicago can clinch the #1 seed in the Western Conference with an Anaheim loss against Columbus

Calgary can be eliminated from the playoff race with a loss against Detroit or a win by Columbus against Anaheim

Side note: It's a light day tomorrow, but I'm fairly certain I will hate my life while trying to determine all the scenarios for Thursday. There look to be a ton of them, and some extremely elaborate ones.


Last edited by Mayor Bee: 04-17-2013 at 11:22 PM.
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Old
04-17-2013, 02:10 AM
  #184
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Don't worry MB. If anyone can do it, it is you.

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Old
04-17-2013, 02:41 AM
  #185
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MB, I think you have Dallas and Detroit mixed up. Both DAL and DET have 6 games left, and DET has 47pts, DAL has 45pts, there's no way DET doesn't control their own destiny.

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Old
04-17-2013, 08:52 AM
  #186
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
MB, I think you have Dallas and Detroit mixed up. Both DAL and DET have 6 games left, and DET has 47pts, DAL has 45pts, there's no way DET doesn't control their own destiny.
Yup, Dallas relinquished that back to Detroit after taking it away just a couple days prior. Good catch.

It's funny; every year there's usually a lot of switching between the two sides of the elimination coin. This year, despite being fairly compacted, there's been almost none.

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Old
04-17-2013, 02:22 PM
  #187
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I had never noticed this thread before. Yes, that does make me an idiot.

Good stuff. Thanks.

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Old
04-17-2013, 10:28 PM
  #188
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Toronto clinch scenarios, Thursday:


Toronto REG/OT win (55pts, 25 ROW) + any WPG loss (max out at 55pts, 24 ROW)

or

Toronto SO win (55pts) + WPG regulation loss (max out at 54pts)


note:

Toronto SO win (55pts, 24 ROW) + WPG OT/SO loss (max 55pts, 24 ROW)
- WPG holds H-to-H tiebreak so this scenario not a mathematical clinch

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Old
04-17-2013, 11:41 PM
  #189
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Jackets win. The west playoff race is so exciting right now

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Old
04-17-2013, 11:44 PM
  #190
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Dammit, Anaheim, you had one job to do.

Calgary did their part, why couldn't you?

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Old
04-17-2013, 11:46 PM
  #191
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Updated through 4/17/2013

From today...

Boston has clinched a playoff spot

Calgary has been eliminated from the playoff race

Chicago has clinched the #1 seed in the Western Conference

For tomorrow...

Carolina can be eliminated from the playoff race with a loss against Winnipeg

Tampa Bay can be eliminated from the playoff race with a regulation loss against Montreal AND an OT/SO loss by one of NY Rangers against Florida or Winnipeg against Carolina, OR with an OT/SO loss against Montreal AND a win by one of NY Rangers against Florida or Winnipeg against Carolina

Toronto can clinch a playoff spot with a win against NY Islanders AND a regulation loss by Winnipeg against Carolina

Vancouver can clinch a playoff spot with a win against Dallas

(Huh, this wasn't as bad as I thought it was going to be.)

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Old
04-17-2013, 11:48 PM
  #192
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MB, I'm confused. How does CBS elimination number drop with a ROW and 8th place regulation loss?

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Old
04-17-2013, 11:56 PM
  #193
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
MB, I'm confused. How does CBS elimination number drop with a ROW and 8th place regulation loss?
Columbus does not control their own destiny at this point.

The teams that have the 8 highest possible point totals in a conference control their own destiny. The line to clear is the 9th-highest total.

In the West right now, Columbus, Dallas, and Detroit are all tied at 8th with 57 possible points. Dallas has the tiebreaker with 19 R/OT wins, then Detroit (18), then Columbus (16). Now, it gets dicey because normally the condition is "If X team wins out, then they make the playoffs (control their destiny) or need help (do not)". But Dallas plays both Detroit and Columbus in their last 6 games, so it might also be accurate to say that if Detroit wins out, they make the playoffs (since winning out would cost Dallas at least 1 point, negating the R/OW tiebreaker that they lose to the Stars).

Columbus being on the elimination side of the ledger means that if the team with the 8th-highest actual point total (as rendered in the normal standings) increases their total, everyone on the elimination side drops...that includes themselves. It looks extremely weird because of the variance in games played by the three teams at the cutoff point, but will normalize completely by the end of April 24 (when all three teams will have played 46 games, meaning that each has 2 remaining). Until then, it may continue to look strange. It's a slightly anomaly in the numbers that self-adjusts.

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Old
04-18-2013, 10:20 AM
  #194
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Toronto could also clinch with a Reg/OT win against the Islanders and a OT/SO Loss by Winnipeg against Carolina as puckluck mentioned above.

They could still tie us on points which is probaly why you didn't mention it, but if that happens we'll have the tiebreaker with Winnipeg

Also taking tiebreakers into affect, Any loss by Tampa or ROW Win by Winnipeg eliminates Tampa as Winnipeg would then have the tiebreaker


Last edited by Canada4Gold: 04-18-2013 at 10:33 AM.
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Old
04-18-2013, 11:08 AM
  #195
llamateizer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canada4Gold View Post
Toronto could also clinch with a Reg/OT win against the Islanders and a OT/SO Loss by Winnipeg against Carolina as puckluck mentioned above.

They could still tie us on points which is probaly why you didn't mention it, but if that happens we'll have the tiebreaker with Winnipeg

Also taking tiebreakers into affect, Any loss by Tampa or ROW Win by Winnipeg eliminates Tampa as Winnipeg would then have the tiebreaker
Toronto does not have the Tie breaker in case of a tie in points and in ROW win

e.g.
Tor and Win finish with 53 pts and 24 ROW win

to determine a tie break
1- number of games (both 48)
2- number of ROW win (both 24)
3- The greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs. If two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included.

game 1: FEB 7, 2013
TORONTO AT WINNIPEG TOR (3) - WPG (2)

game 2: MAR 12, 2013
TORONTOA AT WINNIPEG TOR (2) - WPG (5)

game 3: MAR 16, 2013
WINNIPEG AT TORONTO WPG (5) - TOR (4) S/O

toronto played winnipeg 3 times,
2 away and 1 home.

Game 1 is not counted.
Winnipeg get 4pts, Toronto 1.

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Old
04-18-2013, 11:11 AM
  #196
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^Toronto currently has 24 ROW, if you actually looked at my scenario it says Toronto wins in Regulation or OT tonight.

That puts them at 25 ROW.

Jets loss of any kind tonight and they can get at best 24 ROW, hence Tororonto Does have the tiebreaker

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Old
04-18-2013, 11:16 AM
  #197
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canada4Gold View Post
^Toronto currently has 24 ROW, if you actually looked at my scenario it says Toronto wins in Regulation or OT tonight.

That puts them at 25 ROW.

Jets loss of any kind tonight and they can get at best 24 ROW, hence Tororonto Does have the tiebreaker
yeah, I totally agree with you.

I just looked at the scenario where Tor and Win does have the same ROW

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Old
04-18-2013, 11:21 AM
  #198
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Yeah I know. Last week it was looking like they would have the tiebreaker.

My sentence in my post was just refering to the fact that if that did in fact happen tonight then Toronto would have the tiebreaker, and since the best Winnipeg could do would be tie us on points then we would have clinched

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Old
04-18-2013, 12:21 PM
  #199
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So because they have the 2nd most ROW among those tied for 8th in max points (DAL, DET CBJ) at 57, is DET technically 9th? If not, who is?

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Old
04-18-2013, 12:31 PM
  #200
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I would just like to stop and give this thread a huge thumbs up!

Thanks for the hard work.

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