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Do the Rangers make the playoffs this season?: Oddmakers say 65.9%

View Poll Results: Do the Rangers make the playoffs this season?
Yes 190 65.97%
No 98 34.03%
Voters: 288. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
04-19-2013, 09:59 AM
  #226
boyle2boyle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by broadwayblue View Post
Define slim? Do you really think the odds are 90% or better in Buffalo tonight for at least an OTL?
Not at all.. 60-70%. Based on the fact that 23% of all NHL games go to OT, the remaining 77% would be split based on who gets more points in regulation. Without doing the math, it's safe to say that the split would be at least 60-40 in the Rangers favor over Buffalo. So .6*.77+.23 = .692 chance that we get a point tonight. Now obviously each team isn't exactly as good as their record shows, but that's what the percentages say based on prior performance and league trends.

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04-19-2013, 10:07 AM
  #227
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Originally Posted by Jersey Girl View Post
Jeez...that makes it even worse. Ridiculous.
Don't forget that the Isles and Jets still play each other.. 77% chance that someone takes 0 points away from that game. Also strength of schedule is a big factor when predicting the outcome of future games. Our remaining SOS is much easier than other teams fighting for the spot which defnitely weights the percentages.

Intuition tells us that anything can happen in these games, and percentages can be thrown out the window for that reason. But the math itself can't really be argued.

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04-19-2013, 10:14 AM
  #228
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Since sixth is essentially a pipe dream at this point, I really dont' know if I want 8th or 7th. Penguins, or Habs? If the Bruins can jump into the 2 seed I'll take them.

Although this is a severe case of "be careful what you wish for"

Low expectations going into the playoffs this season (let's get there first, huh?) and can never be too disappointed.

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Old
04-19-2013, 10:25 AM
  #229
Bluenote13
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Originally Posted by silverfish View Post
Since sixth is essentially a pipe dream at this point
Really? I think it's quite doable.

We have to win, both Ottawa and the Isles have harder schedules.

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04-19-2013, 10:29 AM
  #230
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Originally Posted by Bluenote13 View Post
Really? I think it's quite doable.

We have to win, both Ottawa and the Isles have harder schedules.
With a 4-1 record, there's only a 21% chance of us getting 6th. Need to win out.

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04-19-2013, 10:33 AM
  #231
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Originally Posted by allerotrot View Post
With a 4-1 record, there's only a 21% chance of us getting 6th. Need to win out.
4-1 is fine if Ottawa goes 1-4 and Isles go 2-2.

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04-19-2013, 10:33 AM
  #232
abev
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Just remember, while stats like that make you comfortable (80%+ chance of making the playoffs in the last week of the season), they are not predictive stats. Its purely based on what teams have done and says nothing about what they will do.

There's no certainty but I think we should be confident that the Rangers will make it. Of course some of us will always wait for the other shoe to drop.

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04-19-2013, 11:32 AM
  #233
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Quote:
Originally Posted by silverfish View Post
Since sixth is essentially a pipe dream at this point, I really dont' know if I want 8th or 7th. Penguins, or Habs? If the Bruins can jump into the 2 seed I'll take them.
Boston is two points back with two games in hand.

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Old
04-19-2013, 09:10 PM
  #234
abev
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsclubstats.com
Beat Buffalo 8-4, playoff odds up 8.9 to 92.4%
Odds are increasing!

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Old
04-19-2013, 09:13 PM
  #235
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Why are our odds so high?

We lost the next game and Jets win theirs, we no longer control our destiny.

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04-19-2013, 09:15 PM
  #236
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92? umm thats seems way too high.

Hockey Rodent says 80%, that seems more reasonable.

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04-19-2013, 09:17 PM
  #237
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Originally Posted by ImIdaho View Post
Why are our odds so high?

We lost the next game and Jets win theirs, we no longer control our destiny.
It helps that winnipeg plays the isles tomorrow and our last 4 games are all against teams below us in the standings (devils, florida, carolina, devils).

Winnipeg has isles, buffalo, washington and montreal.

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04-19-2013, 09:19 PM
  #238
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ImIdaho View Post
Why are our odds so high?

We lost the next game and Jets win theirs, we no longer control our destiny.
takes into account strength of opponent and previous performance against specific teams. They are predicting how games will turn out based on played simulations

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04-19-2013, 09:22 PM
  #239
ImIdaho
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Originally Posted by GordonGecko View Post
takes into account strength of opponent and previous performance against specific teams. They are predicting how games will turn out based on played simulations
Probably takes into account like how the Devils have been playing like ****, but they always bring it against us and Kovalchuck is coming back.

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04-19-2013, 09:55 PM
  #240
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Even if you switch it to 50/50 scoring (both teams considered equal) we're at ~82%.

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Old
04-20-2013, 03:28 AM
  #241
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92,4% now
5th place - 5%
6th place - 20%
7th place - 33%
8th place - 35%
9th pace - ~5%

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Old
04-20-2013, 05:23 AM
  #242
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Winnipeg - NYR 1st round playoff ?

NYR win the 4 remaining games (or 3-1) and takes 6 th Conference
Winnipeg beat NYI and Washinton later and takes SE-division (3rd Conference)

Washington out ?

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Old
04-20-2013, 06:14 AM
  #243
boyle2boyle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KenGuru View Post
Winnipeg - NYR 1st round playoff ?

NYR win the 4 remaining games (or 3-1) and takes 6 th Conference
Winnipeg beat NYI and Washinton later and takes SE-division (3rd Conference)

Washington out ?
4.4% chance we play WPG as of right now, but anything is possible.

One thing I found interesting - in the WPG-NYI game, we should root for a NYI win above all else, even if it comes in SO or OT. A WPG regulation win would hurt our playoff chances more than a 3-point game that favors the Isles.

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Old
04-20-2013, 06:31 AM
  #244
Maineice11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KenGuru View Post
Winnipeg - NYR 1st round playoff ?

NYR win the 4 remaining games (or 3-1) and takes 6 th Conference
Winnipeg beat NYI and Washinton later and takes SE-division (3rd Conference)

Washington out ?
I haven't watched much of Washington, but from highlights and what many hockey analysts are saying, I don't think Ranger fans should be wanting to play them. They have been on a roll and in no way easy series nor easier than Pittsburgh or Montreal/Boston. I cringe a bit when I say montreal because Rangers would have to find some way to win just 1 game in montreal in order to win that series. I think montreal is the one opponent you want to try to avoid.

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04-20-2013, 11:15 PM
  #245
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After tonight, our chances are down to 91.8% to make the playoffs.

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Old
04-20-2013, 11:17 PM
  #246
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Please don't finish 6th. Let the islanders get ***** by Ovechkin

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04-21-2013, 12:31 AM
  #247
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Originally Posted by JCresty View Post
After tonight, our chances are down to 91.8% to make the playoffs.
Down to 91.8? How high were the odds before tonight?

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Old
04-21-2013, 12:41 AM
  #248
Cresto
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Originally Posted by broadwayblue View Post
Down to 91.8? How high were the odds before tonight?
92.0%

I am just stirring up some panic around here

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Old
04-21-2013, 01:00 AM
  #249
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"Two things are infinite - the universe and human stupidity. On second hand, I am not so sure about the universe..."

Who wrote this? I am thinking math here

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Old
04-21-2013, 01:02 AM
  #250
Krams
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"Two things are infinite - the universe and human stupidity. On second hand, I am not so sure about the universe..."

Who wrote this? I am thinking math here
Bryzgalov

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