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NHL stats not trusted by teams

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04-19-2013, 04:12 PM
  #1
LadyStanley
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NHL stats not trusted by teams

mirtle 2:09pm via TweetDeck Ryan O'Byrne said today that NHL teams don't trust the NHL generated stats and keep their own for hits, turnovers, chances, etc.




I didn't think that chances were tracked by NHL.


But I will admit that the discrepancies between venues is amazing. (What's a hit in one is not in another.)





Will be interesting to see what comes of this.

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04-19-2013, 05:05 PM
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I don't think anything will come of it.
I've been hearing the same thing from Kings' coaches and management for years now. They do their own video breakdown. I assume most/all other teams do also, & have for quite a while. Even if teams did trust the NHL stats, I'm sure they'd be doing their own video breakdown of each game, looking for strengths, weaknesses, mistakes, etc.
I don't think the NHL sees any profit in changing.

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04-19-2013, 05:15 PM
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Mike Farkas
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Not only that, but in re-watching games with the TOI Chart at my disposal, I've seen some issues in ice time tracking as well. That's not to say that that particular system is flawed, but I've noticed some "inconsistencies" shall we say...nothing that would be earth-shattering though...

Replace "chances" with "shots" though, as I believe only the latter is an "official" stat...

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04-19-2013, 06:14 PM
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A stat I wish the NHL would track is the number of penalties a player draws the opposition into. They track the penalized player but seem to undervalue a player that caused the opposing team to hook, hold, etc.

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04-19-2013, 06:35 PM
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Mike Farkas
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Charon of Styx View Post
A stat I wish the NHL would track is the number of penalties a player draws the opposition into. They track the penalized player but seem to undervalue a player that caused the opposing team to hook, hold, etc.
Behindthenet.ca tracks that.

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04-19-2013, 06:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Mike Farkas View Post
Behindthenet.ca tracks that.
Thanks man. Before I check it i bet Kadri (krayon) leads the league

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04-19-2013, 09:15 PM
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Thanks man. Before I check it i bet Kadri (krayon) leads the league
It's Kaleta. Every year that he hasn't been injured he's lead the league in it (by a decent margin) since he started playing.

One of the main reasons teams do this is because of situations like the Florida Panthers score keeping where any time a puck comes off a stick it is a shot and anytime two players look at each other they award a hit.

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04-19-2013, 09:34 PM
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Internal Individual Team Stats

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sybil227 View Post
I don't think anything will come of it.
I've been hearing the same thing from Kings' coaches and management for years now. They do their own video breakdown. I assume most/all other teams do also, & have for quite a while. Even if teams did trust the NHL stats, I'm sure they'd be doing their own video breakdown of each game, looking for strengths, weaknesses, mistakes, etc.
I don't think the NHL sees any profit in changing.
Internal individual team stats pre date NHL stats. Goes back to the origins of hockey.

NHL league stats are an attempt at standardization.Regardless of how, by whom or were they are tracked, the NHL stats can never reflect a team's game plan going in. Only the internal team stats can reflect the game plan going in.

So there will always be gaps between the league and individual team stats.

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04-19-2013, 09:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
Internal individual team stats pre date NHL stats. Goes back to the origins of hockey.

NHL league stats are an attempt at standardization.Regardless of how, by whom or were they are tracked, the NHL stats can never reflect a team's game plan going in. Only the internal team stats can reflect the game plan going in.

So there will always be gaps between the league and individual team stats.
Should have one person from each team record the stats and use the average as the official NHL stats. Some of the disparities (especially in real-time stats) are ridiculous.

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04-19-2013, 10:00 PM
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Why?

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Originally Posted by DevilChuk View Post
Should have one person from each team record the stats and use the average as the official NHL stats. Some of the disparities (especially in real-time stats) are ridiculous.
Why would any NHL team allow the other league teams to get the slightest glimpse of their game plans, internal evaluations, their evaluations of the opposition, their views or counters to opposition game plans, or any information that is proprietary?

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04-19-2013, 10:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
Why would any NHL team allow the other league teams to get the slightest glimpse of their game plans, internal evaluations, their evaluations of the opposition, their views or counters to opposition game plans, or any information that is proprietary?
What? Who said anything about that? Not sure how you got that from the word "stats" ...

I'll make it simple: Team A says they had 20 shots in a game. Team B says they only had 18 shot in a game. Both teams have bias, let's average the two numbers and say Team A had 19 shots in the game which should do a better job of limiting bias than just going with the home team.

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04-19-2013, 10:53 PM
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Oh Well.......

Quote:
Originally Posted by DevilChuk View Post
What? Who said anything about that? Not sure how you got that from the word "stats" ...

I'll make it simple: Team A says they had 20 shots in a game. Team B says they only had 18 shot in a game. Both teams have bias, let's average the two numbers and say Team A had 19 shots in the game which should do a better job of limiting bias than just going with the home team.
Oh well...... simple would be NHL Counter A and NHL Counter B, taking the average of the two. But then NHL off ice officials have been doing similar things for years. Using replays then videos to reach a consensus on borderline interpretations.

Keeps the NHL team out of league generated stats.

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04-19-2013, 11:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moskau View Post
It's Kaleta. Every year that he hasn't been injured he's lead the league in it (by a decent margin) since he started playing.

One of the main reasons teams do this is because of situations like the Florida Panthers score keeping where any time a puck comes off a stick it is a shot and anytime two players look at each other they award a hit.
Perfect example was last nights Leaf/Isles game. Martin turned around on the boards and ran into one of the Leafs dman, not hit, literally turned around and oops type thing, counted as a hit. Every team does it.

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04-21-2013, 04:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LadyStanley View Post
mirtle 2:09pm via TweetDeck Ryan O'Byrne said today that NHL teams don't trust the NHL generated stats and keep their own for hits, turnovers, chances, etc.




I didn't think that chances were tracked by NHL.


But I will admit that the discrepancies between venues is amazing. (What's a hit in one is not in another.)





Will be interesting to see what comes of this.
Is this really news worthy? Maybe more to the point, is it actually news to anyone?

I remember Lindy Ruff several years back stating in a post game presser something along the lines of "We had them with about X amount (cant remember) shots on Ryan [Miller] that period". The X amount was of course way different than the official tally.

Its always been like this. Its not even so much that it's not trusted. It's just that teams, because they have different purposes than the league, count shots, takeaway, etc differently. Teams arent interested in what is technically a takeaway, etc theyre interested in counting plays that clearly impact play negatively or positively and with the way the NHL counts those stats (not to mention rink to rink variation) the teams can naturally tally totals that aid them more in determining what they need to do than NHL totals would.

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04-21-2013, 06:35 AM
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don't know how it is now--but for years many stats were kept by the home team and it was well known that in Boston Sinden and the bruins owners made it clear to the guy counting shots that anything near the neat was considered a shot and whenever the goal touched the puck it was a shot on net. In the 80's in a game against the oilers, ITV who showed the game kept track of how "interesting" it was how games in the boston garden always had high shot count

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04-21-2013, 12:34 PM
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The root of this issue might be quite simple. How much time and resources does the NHL invest in training their stat keepers?

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04-21-2013, 03:00 PM
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Maybe after they train their refs they can move on to that.

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04-21-2013, 07:06 PM
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Seriously where did the idea that Florida counts more hits come from?

First time I heard it was Devils fans using it to claim Kovalchuk isn't soft.

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04-21-2013, 07:27 PM
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One day, our grand-kids will laugh at us at how archaic are stats are just like how we laugh at the 80s or earlier 90s or before for not keeping track of TOI or SV%.

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04-21-2013, 07:55 PM
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Originally Posted by SimplySensational View Post
Seriously where did the idea that Florida counts more hits come from?

First time I heard it was Devils fans using it to claim Kovalchuk isn't soft.
I remember in the first round last year there was a ridiculous disparity in hits between the games played in FL and the games played in NJ.

Game 1: 44 to 49 hits
Game 2: 52 to 50 hits
Game 5: 47 to 46 hits
Game 7: 37 to 60 hits (2OT)

Game 3: 14 to 39 hits
Game 4: 16 to 27 hits
Game 6: 27 to 28 hits (OT)

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04-21-2013, 08:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SimplySensational View Post
Seriously where did the idea that Florida counts more hits come from?

First time I heard it was Devils fans using it to claim Kovalchuk isn't soft.
Probably from the fact that for the last 5 years they've ranked significantly higher in home hits than away hits.

08-09: 17 home, 27 road
09-10: 12 home, 27 road
10-11: 7 home, 25 road
11-12: 9 home, 27 road
12-13: 11 home, 26 road

Through that time they've had an average of 32% more hits at home than on the road.

It it more likely they they magically increase their hitting at home or that their hit counter is a little trigger happy?

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04-21-2013, 09:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goooal View Post

Its always been like this. Its not even so much that it's not trusted. It's just that teams, because they have different purposes than the league, count shots, takeaway, etc differently. Teams arent interested in what is technically a takeaway, etc theyre interested in counting plays that clearly impact play negatively or positively and with the way the NHL counts those stats (not to mention rink to rink variation) the teams can naturally tally totals that aid them more in determining what they need to do than NHL totals would.
Bingo. The NHL is interested in creating a standardized metric based on fairly tight criteria, the teams are interested in using systems that help them evaluate the contributions of their own players. It's not a matter of trust, it's just that teams are going to change the definitions to something that suits their ends better, and count up stats with their revised definitions.

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04-22-2013, 10:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CptKirk View Post
Bingo. The NHL is interested in creating a standardized metric based on fairly tight criteria, the teams are interested in using systems that help them evaluate the contributions of their own players. It's not a matter of trust, it's just that teams are going to change the definitions to something that suits their ends better, and count up stats with their revised definitions.
Good points, but I also think that a lack of trust is implied. To me it is like political parties... when they don't like the results of polling data, they too frequently criticize or dismiss the pollsters (or their methodologies) and feel further convinced that they can only trust their own data.

So the upside of doing one's own stats is as you've stated.

The downside is that when measuring things that have a subjective element (in hockey, what constitutes a hit or what constitutes a scoring chance) then an inherent bias of favouring one's own can and will sometimes affect one's own results, especially when looking to confirm previously-held beliefs.

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04-22-2013, 11:18 PM
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Observation is the only way to record the data. I'm sure the NHL has some defining criteria for each stat when instructing an observer. I would also think there's a few guys in Toronto looking at the ice from a bird's eye and recording. Otherwise how accurate could puck possession be?

Its not a sound method, but what else is there?

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04-23-2013, 08:08 AM
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Quote:
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Observation is the only way to record the data. I'm sure the NHL has some defining criteria for each stat when instructing an observer.
Using hits as an example, I have never seen an official definition disseminated by the NHL. The colloquial definition, that a hit separates a player from the puck, is commonly used among fans but I can't find it anywhere in the league's communications. Without an official definition or a reference guide, it's impossible to know precisely how the league defines a "check" and "possession" in various instances.

This is why I asked earlier about training. It's one thing to send out a memo to the statisticians and set them free, and another to fly them in for a weekend of training. Are they supervised? Is there quality control? Do they receive video instruction or just a written definition? Who is even in charge of this stuff?

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