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2013 Draft: Stop winnin for MacKinnon, or Do Meth for Seth?

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Old
04-21-2013, 08:18 PM
  #351
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amaxing Joni Jokel View Post
Even if that's the case, where is the cap room coming from to add a significant contract?
We're not going to?

JR's plan: Resign Corvo, hope Pitkanen and Ward can regain the competence they once had, hope that Rask/Murphy/Bellemore/Dalpe are ready for the big show and can produce.

While relatively healthy, we can make the playoffs.

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04-21-2013, 08:44 PM
  #352
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amaxing Joni Jokel View Post
Even if that's the case, where is the cap room coming from to add a significant contract?
Excluding a major trade involving a core player, the only possibility would be to take some team's cap casualty and have them eat part of the contract.

Otherwise, this looks to be a quiet summer.

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04-21-2013, 08:58 PM
  #353
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If we don't get a top 3 pick, should we trade 1st rounder and say Pitkanen for M.Staal? Both probably injured all summer this year.

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Old
04-21-2013, 09:12 PM
  #354
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That's major overpayment. The JStaal trade was one thing, under a unique and unpredictable set of circumstances, but I'm willing to wait and take our chances on Marc as a free agent. There's no compelling reason to go after him super-aggressively.

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04-21-2013, 09:16 PM
  #355
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I used Pitkanen cause of his 4.5M salary and he has no "notrade clauses"

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Old
04-21-2013, 09:45 PM
  #356
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
That's major overpayment. The JStaal trade was one thing, under a unique and unpredictable set of circumstances, but I'm willing to wait and take our chances on Marc as a free agent. There's no compelling reason to go after him super-aggressively.
You may be willing to wait. JR may not be. He couldn't wait for Jordan, and there's really no reason for him to wait for Marc (assuming, of course, he's available).

If Marc is available and the Canes don't pick in the Top 3, I can see JR attempting to trade the 1st for Marc. He realizes the window to win is now.

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Old
04-21-2013, 09:55 PM
  #357
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Originally Posted by Gr8Dan View Post
I used Pitkanen cause of his 4.5M salary and he has no "notrade clauses"
I don't think you picked the wrong player, I just don't see us coming out on the good end of a Marc Staal trade. Sather is just as savvy a trader as Shero and we'd be giving up an impact player to get one, THEN throwing in futures.

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Old
04-21-2013, 09:59 PM
  #358
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I didn't mind the JStaal trade, but if JR winds up trading Faulk Rask and the first for Marc I will absolutely flip my ****.

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Old
04-21-2013, 09:59 PM
  #359
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Originally Posted by Blueline Bomber View Post
You may be willing to wait. JR may not be. He couldn't wait for Jordan, and there's really no reason for him to wait for Marc (assuming, of course, he's available).
I don't think he was wrong to move aggressively on Jordan, given the circumstances. But the situation now is a bit different, and we no longer have a bunch of (perceived) prospect depth to deal with.

If Marc is serious about playing here, picking him up as a rental and then securing him in free agency just makes way more sense.

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04-21-2013, 10:38 PM
  #360
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Except that'll be another 2-3 years down the road.

If the aim is to make a run at a Cup soon (and I'd hope with the contracts JR is handing out, that's true), and the belief (in JR's mind) is that Marc will eventually be a Cane, it doesn't make sense to wait 2-3 years to field the team he wants.

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Old
04-22-2013, 12:38 AM
  #361
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I'm onboard with waiting for Marc in his contract year. He'll be cheap then and is basically a lock for Carolina. This defense is pretty good when its healthy. Faulk-Gleason have been formidable, Pitkanen-McBain have proven chemistry, and I liked what I've seen offensively and defensively from Harrison-Murphy. Plus, Bellemore and Sangs have been pleasant surprises this year.

I'm not sure where this notion of trading Tlusty is coming from, that's just outright stupid. Even if we were to draft MacKinnon or Drouin and load up our top 6, our bottom 6 lacks big time defensively. Keeping arguably our best defensive forward to maintain a solid top 6 is not exactly rocket science.

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Old
04-22-2013, 01:17 AM
  #362
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Originally Posted by Hooked on Ponics View Post
I'm not sure where this notion of trading Tlusty is coming from
Sometimes it's a good idea to sell high. Tlusty has had a great season but there's no doubt he's a product of his line-mates. However, he does make the most of his chances when they are presented to him which is more than I can say of other 'top-9' forwards we have or have had.

You definitely don't mess with a good thing but Tlusty's trade value is probably higher than his real value.

That being said, I'd rather keep him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
If Marc is serious about playing here, picking him up as a rental and then securing him in free agency just makes way more sense.
I agree with this. I definitely would rather have a recovering, injury prone Pitkanen than a potentially non-recovering M. Staal. Eye injuries might be the most frightening injury in hockey as they can often coexist with concussion/head trauma which can make treating them very difficult. If anyone remembers both Brian Pothier (as a Capital) and Matt Cullen had vision/concussion issues (however, these might have been related to a concussion only, I forget). Luckily there was a local neuro-optometrist (Dr. Sue Durham in Cary/Raleigh, look her up!) that was able to handle their treatment. Pothier actually made trips to NC while he was recovering with the Capitals just to see her which tells me that capable specialists in this field are hard to come by.

tl;dr: let's wait on Marc for now


Last edited by jayhamm: 04-22-2013 at 01:25 AM. Reason: added M. Staal discussion to avoid a double post
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Old
04-22-2013, 01:54 AM
  #363
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I didn't mind the JStaal trade, but if JR winds up trading Faulk Rask and the first for Marc I will absolutely flip my ****.
As bleedgreen (?) says, JR is willing to overpay to get his guy or something to that effect. However, JR is not an idiot. I try to avoid being too much of a homer when I post, but I honestly think Faulk may very well be a more valuable asset when you factor in his play up until this point, age/potential, contract/years of team control left and handedness as well as M. Staal’s recent injuries and contract situation. If a M. Staal deal were to go down, I’d expect something like the 2013 1st round pick (#4-#7) + McBain + Di Giuseppe/McGinn/Rask.

The Rangers use the pick to get a long-term Brad Richards replacement in Barkov/Lindholm/Monahan, a puck-moving RHD that could regain form in a different environment and a recent 2nd round forward to add more depth to the prospect pool. It’s an odd proposal as a perceived cup contender would simultaneously make themselves weaker and strengthen a division rival. However, it would be something worth considering from a Ranger perspective if they bow out early in the playoffs, if they believe that there is significant potential of M. Staal signing in Carolina as a UFA in 2015 and if they like one of the aforementioned forward prospects (JR could threaten to take a D, potentially leaving Sather out in the cold if he wants to make a deal next summer).

From a Carolina perspective, it’s an overpayment and one that I wouldn’t be too excited about. I wouldn’t go into J. Staal trade or Skinner over Fowler rage mode, but I would criticize the deal. The patient part of me would say it would have been better to strengthen the pool by keeping the pick, moving McBain+ for short-term defensive help and taking a chance on signing M. Staal without having to give up anything in return in 2015. The impatient part of me would attempt to rationalize it by saying much of the core is in their prime years and M. Staal would fill the gaping hole in the defense, not perfectly, but quite nicely.

M. Staal - Faulk
Pitkanen - Gleason
Harrison - Sanguinetti
Bellemore

Assuming Pitkanen doesn’t turn into a completely different player as a result of the heel injury, that’s a playoff, dare I say Cup, caliber defense. The shutdown pair of M. Staal - Faulk would be studly defensively and would be able to move the puck well enough. Pitkanen - Gleason would have the potential to be a really good 2nd pair, capable of logging 17+ EV minutes a night competently at the very least. Gleason played the right side next to Allen, IIRC. Harrison - Sangs would be okay in sheltered minutes at EV. Their value comes on special teams with Harrison on the PK and Sangs on the 2nd PP. Murphy starts the season in Charlotte for more seasoning and depth purposes.

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Old
04-22-2013, 01:55 AM
  #364
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There is zero doubt in my mind that what we're witnessing with Tlusty is not him being a passenger, but rather ..... something we rarely see in Carolina.... development. I know it looks strange, but teams around the league actually do this a lot.

I am so ridiculously tired of the "passenger" discussion regarding Tlusty. If anything, he's probably been the most consistent player on that line from start to finish in terms of bringing his A game every night. And please, let's not discuss points as it relates to consistency. They're not intrinsically linked.

If he was a passenger, the implication unsaid is that he could be replaced by a league average forward and the net result of that line would be roughly the same. Does anybody here really believe that? Hell, just on our own TEAM who would you put there besides Jiri that would make that line as effective as it is now?

I mean what I say about Tlusty being very much like Radim Vrbata on the developmental curve. Vrbata went from a one dimensional offensive player in Colorado to being a heavily relied upon two way winger in Phoenix. Chicago's system helped him tremendously because they rolled all lines equally based upon defensive effectiveness as well as offensive effectiveness. Carolina did the same for Tlusty and the awakening of his defensive game bolstered his offensive confidence and saw him gain the icetime needed to properly utilize his skillset which is still heavily underrated here.

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Old
04-22-2013, 03:39 AM
  #365
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Offering a bit of comfort here. If we win out in our remaining 3 games, the worst we will pick is 10th overall and that is provided that New Jersey and Buffalo lose out in their remaining games. If we go 2-0-1, the worst we will pick is 9th because we win the tiebreaker against the Flyers. If we go 1-1-1, the worst we can draft is 7th if we win the tiebreaker against Calgary, not sure how that works. If we go 1-2, the worst we can draft is 6th losing the tiebreaker against Edmonton for wins. If we go 0-0-3, we still lose the Edmonton tiebreaker and pick 7th. If we go 0-3-0, the worst we can pick is 5th overall. The best we can pick is 2nd overall before the lottery and obviously 1st overall if we win the lottery.

I feel comforted by knowing that, at worst, we're picking Top 10 as things stand today. At best case scenario, we pick 2nd pre lottery. It's wide open, but the ceiling has been put in place.

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Old
04-22-2013, 07:16 AM
  #366
tarheelhockey
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This is highly unscientific, but based upon past experience I have a feeling that some GM will walk up to the mic with the #3 pick and take Nurse.

Even if that specific scenario doesn't play out, the #4-7 range is a great spot for snagging a big faller.

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Old
04-22-2013, 08:27 AM
  #367
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Ill think ill puke if we take nurse at 3.

4 would be fine, one of Drouin or Barkov should be available.

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04-22-2013, 08:40 AM
  #368
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Ill think ill puke if we take nurse at 3.

4 would be fine, one of Drouin or Barkov should be available.
The only way I would be more shocked about JR reaching to get Nurse at 3 would be if his name was Igor Nursov.

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04-22-2013, 08:42 AM
  #369
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Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
This is highly unscientific, but based upon past experience I have a feeling that some GM will walk up to the mic with the #3 pick and take Nurse.

Even if that specific scenario doesn't play out, the #4-7 range is a great spot for snagging a big faller.
I just can't see that happening. MacKinnon, Drouin, and Barkov are just too good.

I could see any one of Barkov, MacKinnon, or Drouin going #1 though. Barkov is the dark horse, easily the most developed forward in the Draft. I'd love to snag him at 4-7 if possible.

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Old
04-22-2013, 09:20 AM
  #370
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vagrant View Post
If he was a passenger, the implication unsaid is that he could be replaced by a league average forward and the net result of that line would be roughly the same. Does anybody here really believe that? Hell, just on our own TEAM who would you put there besides Jiri that would make that line as effective as it is now?
I don't think that's the implication. I think the more sensible faction of the boards are in agreement that he's a very good player.

I've implied that his 'elite' statistical output is a product of Staal and Semin's ability to create space and playmaking. But I'd expect him to be good no matter where he plays. Production-wise, however, I think he'd have to have some very favorable conditions to continue scoring at this level.

But that doesn't discount the success he is having. His skillset is perfectly tailored to playing with Staal and Semin. And they are benefiting from it as well.

Chemistry matters, as our selling of Jussi for nothing, and then he puts up 8pts in 6 games demonstrates. Being put in a position to succeed is a big part of being a GM and Head Coach. Carolina got it right with Tlusty, just as they have struggled to do so with the rest of the roster.

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Old
04-22-2013, 09:21 AM
  #371
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I could see any one of Barkov, MacKinnon, or Drouin going #1 though.
Uhhh....no.

Not a chance Barkov goes first. Top 3 maybe but definitely not first.

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04-22-2013, 09:23 AM
  #372
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The scouting report on Nurse is that he's a big mobile defensman who likes to hit, and can run the point of the powerplay.

If that's accurate, why would anyone be sad to take him anywhere?

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04-22-2013, 09:30 AM
  #373
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Uhhh....no.

Not a chance Barkov goes first. Top 3 maybe but definitely not first.
Barkov is putting up near a ppg in a high end professional league playing against guys 10-20 years older than in the CHL. That is basically unheard of for a 17-18 year old. Plus he is huge at 6'3", 205 lbs.

I would not be upset if the Canes were #1 and decided he was the best prospect on the board.

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Old
04-22-2013, 10:42 AM
  #374
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Been on the Barkov train since i read about him a few months ago. still on it. if not him, then Nurse. after that.. ...dont really care, because they most likely wont make the jump for at least 1-1.5 seasons. barkov and nurse prob wont make tghe jump the first season either, but thats ok. Nurse + Murphy on the back end in 2 seasons or Rask + Barkov in the top 6 in 2 seasons is exciting. IIRC correctly, though, both Rask and Barkov are centers? any chance either moves to the wing? i.e. could we have something like this:

Semin-Staal-Tlusty
Skinner-Staal-Rask/Barkov

or some combination of that? is that realistic 2 seasons from now?

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Old
04-22-2013, 11:35 AM
  #375
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fairly realistic I'd say, really if we end up with Barkov this is what I expect a couple seasons from now if we somehow manage to keep Tlusty without destroying our cap.

Tlusty - E Staal - Semin
Skinner - J Staal - Barkov
?????? - Rask - Ruutu
?????? - Nash - ??????

in a sense he'd be a much better fit here then Drouin for what we need.

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