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How many points will it take to make the playoffs?

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Old
04-12-2013, 03:35 AM
  #126
HansH
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After games of 4/11/13:

The target for 8th remains 51 points. The Kings have 50, meaning they need to go 0-6-1 in the remaining seven games. I'm not going to work out the percentage - I'm just not.

Target for clear 4th is 60 points (current actual pace is 59 points), translating to a record of 5-2 in the remaining seven games (a percentage of .714).

The Kings' magic number is down to 10 points.

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04-12-2013, 10:50 AM
  #127
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HansH View Post
After games of 4/11/13:

The target for 8th remains 51 points. The Kings have 50, meaning they need to go 0-6-1 in the remaining seven games. I'm not going to work out the percentage - I'm just not.

Target for clear 4th is 60 points (current actual pace is 59 points), translating to a record of 5-2 in the remaining seven games (a percentage of .714).

The Kings' magic number is down to 10 points.
0.071

And thanks for staying up late to update this so I didn't have to wonder all day where we were at because I'm to damn lazy to figure it out myself!

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Old
04-12-2013, 01:36 PM
  #128
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If the Stars, Red Wings, and Coyotes all three lose their games tonight in regulation, that'll reduce the Kings' magic number by two points. If the Coyotes and Stars both lose in regulation and the Blue Jackets lose in any way, that would bring the target for 8th down to 50 points, meaning the Kings would be projected to be in the playoffs even if they went 0-7.

However, if the Blue Jackets lose, that means the Blues would win, which would push the target for 4th up to 61 points, or a record of 5-1-1.

Also, if Dallas loses in any fashion tonight, the Ducks will finally mathematically clinch their post-season berth.

Interesting scoreboard-watching night, tonight...


Last edited by HansH: 04-12-2013 at 06:32 PM.
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Old
04-13-2013, 08:25 PM
  #129
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After games of 4/12/13 (and before the games of 4/13):

The target for 8th increased again with Dallas's win, and sits now at 53 points, raising the record needed by the Kings to 1-5-1 (a .214 percentage).

The Kings are on pace to tie the Sharks for 4th -- but to get 4th clear, the target record remains 5-2 in the remaining seven.

The Kings' magic number technically remains 10 points, but because Dallas and Detroit play against each other on the last day of the season, one of them is going to lose at least one standings point, bringing the Kings _effective_ magic number down to 9 points - a record of 4-2-1.

The Ducks clinched their playoff spot last night with Detroit's shootout loss because of the aforementioned remaining Dallas/Detroit game. Their magic number for the Pacific Division is 7 points (six to clinch a better finish than the Kings).

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Old
04-14-2013, 04:01 PM
  #130
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After games of 4/13/13 (and before any games of 4/14):

The target for 8th has risen AGAIN, to higher than I remember it in quite some time -- 54 points (actually that's for clear 7th -- 53 is projecting to be a three-way tie for 7th-9th with Dallas and Detroit). Even with last night's win, the Kings still aren't quite there, and need to go 1-5 (a percentage of .167) to get 54 points.

However, the target for 4th has fallen to 59 points -- which is exactly what pace the Kings are already on. To maintain, they need to go 3-2-1 in the remaining six (a percentage of .583) -- but they can't relax quite, because if those two regulation losses are to the Sharks, then that makes things a lot more complicated.

Even with the defeat of the Ducks, the Kings remain out of realistic contention for the Pacific Division -- the Ducks would need to go 2-4 in the remaining six (Columbus, @Calgary, @Edmonton (x2, back to back nights), @Vancouver, Phoenix -- only one game against a tea currently in playoff position) and the Kings would need to go 6-0 in their remaining six (@San Jose, Columbus, Dallas, @Minnesota, @Detroit, San Jose - every single team either in or tied for playoff position at this time).

The Kings' magic number is 8 points (a record of 4-2) -- remembering that at least one point will come off that total (and possibly two) when Dallas plays Detroit in the final game of the season (those teams are still tied for 8th with a max of 59 points each).

Their magic number for home ice in the first round is 12 points, as long as no more than two of the wins are in the shootout -- the Kings currently share the same max points as the Blues (64), and lead them 22-20 in the ROW tiebreaker, and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker six points to none (they swept the Blues this year, as y'all will recall).

Chicago is 6 points from locking up the Western Conference and 11 points from clinching the President's Trophy.

Anaheim is 6 points from clinching the Pacific Division and eight points from clinching the #2 spot.

Colorado has been mathematically eliminated, as has Florida.

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04-14-2013, 05:03 PM
  #131
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St. Louis's early loss to Chicago today puts the Kings into even better control of the #4 spot -- it drops the projected points needed to 58 (a record of 3-3), and means that if the Kings win out (whether shootout, OT, or regulation) that they are absolutely guaranteed 4th place.

The Chicago win also clinches no worse than the #2 seed in the Western Conference playoffs for them - the only way they don't have home ice in any of the first three rounds is an epic collapse and a WCF matchup against Anaheim. Unlikely, as the Blackhawks' magic number for the Western Conference regular-season title is down to four points in 13 total games (seven for Chicago, six for the Ducks).

Tonight's Detroit/Nashville game could drop the Kings' magic number another point or two if Nashville wins, and could also decrease the projected target for 8th again.

Go Predators!

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04-14-2013, 06:31 PM
  #132
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HansH View Post
St. Louis's early loss to Chicago today puts the Kings into even better control of the #4 spot -- it drops the projected points needed to 58 (a record of 3-3), and means that if the Kings win out (whether shootout, OT, or regulation) that they are absolutely guaranteed 4th place.

The Chicago win also clinches no worse than the #2 seed in the Western Conference playoffs for them - the only way they don't have home ice in any of the first three rounds is an epic collapse and a WCF matchup against Anaheim. Unlikely, as the Blackhawks' magic number for the Western Conference regular-season title is down to four points in 13 total games (seven for Chicago, six for the Ducks).

Tonight's Detroit/Nashville game could drop the Kings' magic number another point or two if Nashville wins, and could also decrease the projected target for 8th again.

Go Predators!
It would drop it 2. Since it would put both Detroit and Columbus at 45 points with 6 games remaining and Phoenix has 43 with 7 games remaining. So the best any of them could hope for would be 57 points. Putting our magic number at 6. That's assuming a regulation loss if it went to OT we wouldn't gain anything since that would then put Dallas in 9th spot with a max points of 59.

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04-14-2013, 07:08 PM
  #133
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Our playoff chances are currently at 99.7%. Techinically, we should only need 2 wins to guarentee a playoff spot. At present, the odds favor us either meeting St Louis (40.5%) or San Jose (26.8%) in the first round.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...osAngeles.html

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04-14-2013, 07:30 PM
  #134
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GR81 View Post
Our playoff chances are currently at 99.7%. Techinically, we should only need 2 wins to guarentee a playoff spot. At present, the odds favor us either meeting St Louis (40.5%) or San Jose (26.8%) in the first round.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...osAngeles.html
That's based on simulations. But mathematically we need slightly more.
We need 8 points as of right now to mathematically make the playoffs. But that is any combination of the number 9 seed loosing and,not giving control of that spot to another team in doing so, and us winning. But with things as close as they are at spots 8-11 a loss or OT can give control to any number of teams. It's ugly. And I'm glad this year we aren't in that mess. But a 3 game losing streak and them going on the same 3 game winning streak we could be. Man I don't even like thinking about that's how tight it is.

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04-14-2013, 08:53 PM
  #135
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tsanuri View Post
It would drop it 2. Since it would put both Detroit and Columbus at 45 points with 6 games remaining and Phoenix has 43 with 7 games remaining. So the best any of them could hope for would be 57 points. Putting our magic number at 6. That's assuming a regulation loss if it went to OT we wouldn't gain anything since that would then put Dallas in 9th spot with a max points of 59.
Disagree. Dallas is in the 8th spot with a max of 59 right now, tied with Detroit on max. Thus, any points Detroit loses tonight will directly reduce the Kings' magic number -- by one if it's OT/SOL, by two if it's in regulation.

Moot point, looks like, with the lack of performance we're seeing from the Preds tonight.

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04-14-2013, 09:51 PM
  #136
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BRING ON ST. LOUIS!

would love it if that was our match-up.

--weird not really "fearing" any opponent. Never thought this day would happen!

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04-15-2013, 10:07 AM
  #137
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I want San Jose. I feel the need to get even over the collapse from two years ago. Plus my friend is a Sharks fan and I've had enough of the ribbing that came from our suckfest in game four of that series, not to mention us dropping the series.

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04-16-2013, 01:52 PM
  #138
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After games of 4/15/13:

The playoff target sits at 53 points -- the Kings need to go 0-5-1 (.083) to achieve this.

The magic number sits at six points (3-3).

The target for 4th is 59 points - which is also the Kings' current season-long pace. That's a record of 3-2-1 (.583).

The magic number for 4th is twelve points (6-0).

Anaheim's magic number for the Pacific is 6 points.

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04-17-2013, 02:05 AM
  #139
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After games of 4/16/13:

The playoff target remains 53 points -- the Kings have done it.

The magic number for officially clinching is 5 points (2-2-1).

We all know the situation for 4th -- win out and it belongs to the Kings.

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04-17-2013, 02:50 AM
  #140
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To be honest, this thread really represents the bad old days.

It's not about the Kings just "getting into the playoffs." It's about the Kings getting the 4th seed at this point.

They have to keep winning.

That's all.

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04-17-2013, 02:12 PM
  #141
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron View Post
To be honest, this thread really represents the bad old days.

It's not about the Kings just "getting into the playoffs." It's about the Kings getting the 4th seed at this point.

They have to keep winning.

That's all.
Not to me. HansH has been posting not only the target for 8th, but also the target for 4th and, while we were still in that range of making it possible, the target for the division.

I don't see the harm in including the target for 8th. You have to clinch a playoff spot before you can clinch 4th anyways.

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04-17-2013, 04:46 PM
  #142
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Not to me. HansH has been posting not only the target for 8th, but also the target for 4th and, while we were still in that range of making it possible, the target for the division.

I don't see the harm in including the target for 8th. You have to clinch a playoff spot before you can clinch 4th anyways.
I just think threads like these are not relevant for the present day Kings. They are the defending Stanley Cup champions and are basically striving to get the best non-division-title spot in the conference. That is what we really should be concentrating on, not whether the team will make the playoffs.

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04-17-2013, 04:58 PM
  #143
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I just think threads like these are not relevant for the present day Kings. They are the defending Stanley Cup champions and are basically striving to get the best non-division-title spot in the conference. That is what we really should be concentrating on, not whether the team will make the playoffs.
Please keep in mind that this thread started back on Feb 18th when (correct me if I'm wrong) the Kings were 5-6-2 and out of a playoff spot. Let's not forget the terrible start to the season. As the season progressed and the Kings continued to perform it has evolved into what HansH has made it. A full playoff projection thread.

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04-17-2013, 06:04 PM
  #144
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I just think threads like these are not relevant for the present day Kings. They are the defending Stanley Cup champions and are basically striving to get the best non-division-title spot in the conference. That is what we really should be concentrating on, not whether the team will make the playoffs.
Oh I agree we should be focused on best spot available as the defending cup. But my point was that best spot available is also listed in HansH updates. It's not just about getting into the playoffs in his updates. He updates everything possible, so I don't see why its a bad thing for him to maintain his updates on clinching a playoff spot as well.

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04-19-2013, 12:05 PM
  #145
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Also, remember that I didn't start the thread -- I hijacked it Axl had a question with an agenda -- I stripped the agenda out and have been answering the thread's original question, game-by-game and day by day.

After games of 4/18/13:

The playoff target remains irrelevant at 53 points.

The magic number for the playoffs is _technically_ now three points, but Dallas and Detroit are tied for max 8th with 57, and play each other on the original last day of the season, so at least one of them will lose at least one point in that game, meaning the effective number to clinch is 57 points, which is two points (one win) away.

The Kings have clinched the first tiebreaker over San Jose -- the Sharks have 16 ROW with five games left for a max of 21, the Kings already have 23 ROW (5th-most in the NHL actually, behind only Pitts, Chicago, Toronto, and Montreal). So, that simples up the race for 4th a whole bunch.

Just win, baby.

Win out, and the Kings get 4th, as simple as that. No concerns about "uh-oh, it was an SOW", no having to hope that the Sharks tank... just win (i.e, the magic number is 8 points). Careful, though - the Blues max is just one point behind right now...

Anaheim's magic number for the Pacific is 4 points.

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04-19-2013, 01:51 PM
  #146
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What's the official clinching a playoff spot magic number over Detroit and Dallas? 2?

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04-19-2013, 04:04 PM
  #147
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What's the official clinching a playoff spot magic number over Detroit and Dallas? 2?
It's 3 but because of them playing each other we only really need 2.


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04-19-2013, 09:25 PM
  #148
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What's the official clinching a playoff spot magic number over Detroit and Dallas? 2?
Three.

But remember, magic numbers go down with Kings wins AND with Dallas/Detroit losses -- since they play each other on the (old) last day of the season, one of them will lose at least one point then. So we know for SURE that one of the three points will come the Kings's way no matter what they do... it just won't ACTUALLY come their way until next Saturday. Of course, hopefully by then it's a moot point.

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04-20-2013, 10:12 PM
  #149
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Careful, though - the Blues max is just one point behind right now.
Blues have the easiest schedule left.

4. Kings 43, 55 pts (23)
5. Sharks 43, 55 pts (16)
6. Blues 43, 54 pts (21)

LA:

Dallas @ LA
LA @ Wild
LA @ Detroit
Sharks @ LA

SJ:

Columbus @ SJ
Dallas @ SJ
SJ @ Phoenix
SJ @ LA

Blues:

Blues @ Avs
Avs @ Blues
Calgary @ Blues
Chicago @ Blues


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04-23-2013, 09:32 AM
  #150
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After games of 4/22/13:

Kings can finish no lower than 6th, no higher than 4th -- the three Division champions are all locked at this point.

If the Kings go 1-1-1, they're projected to hold on to 4th -- San Jose projects to 59 points.

And here's something -- even if the Kings lose tonight and tomorrow, they will STILL be able to guarantee a better seed than the Sharks if they beat them in regulation time on Saturday. Their overall magic number for 4th is four points, but that's two ways -- St. Louis is still in the picture for that race, so the Kings need four points relative to San Jose _and_ four points relative to St. Louis.

So, I guess the simplest path is just win tonight and tomorrow -- that clinches 4th no matter what.

On a side note, the 1993 Cup Finals run is what made me into a hockey fan (specifically the OT of Game Six of the Campbell Conference Finals against Toronto)... so I have NEVER experienced the Kings having home ice.

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