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Old
04-23-2013, 10:30 PM
  #51
Jakey53
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Originally Posted by Vipassana View Post
Extremely lucky? We kicked ass last year. That wasn't luck.
I think it was extremely lucky also. Why are we so crappy this year with basically the same team?

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04-23-2013, 10:32 PM
  #52
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I'm expecting (maybe it's just hope) Maloney and Tippet to stay until the saga gets resolved. And I don't think it will be resolved, but we'll see in 2 weeks...
I hope your right.

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Old
04-23-2013, 10:37 PM
  #53
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Make sure your projected rosters are at 50.2m or less. I can't imagine our budget will be more next season, if we remain in Phoenix

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...&highlight=cal

It's roughly what we spent last season. With no subsidy from CoG and the cap coming down, there's just no way our budget grows.

I'd say if you want your mock off season to be close to credible, keep it under 50.2m

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04-23-2013, 10:50 PM
  #54
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I think it was extremely lucky also. Why are we so crappy this year with basically the same team?
Mike Smith sucks now.

The word I would use is fortunate. The team made the right moves, some of them were gambits. But they worked out.

Also the short season factor.

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Old
04-23-2013, 10:52 PM
  #55
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Okay, we are definitely going to need another thread on budget.
That's funny

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04-23-2013, 10:53 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by SniperHF View Post
Mike Smith sucks now.

The word I would use is fortunate. The team made the right moves, some of them were gambits. But they worked out.

Also the short season factor.
Yes, fortunate sounds much better

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04-23-2013, 11:34 PM
  #57
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How about the obvious?

Ray Whitney has been the difference. The Stars were not a playoff team last year and are closer to the playoffs with Whitney on board. Heck, if Whitney had not been injured during the year, I'd say that the Stars may have a spot locked up.

The difference is having a calm, steadying influence on offense who can make the plays that others can't.

Smith isn't having that much different of a year as he did last year. Our defense has broken down in front of him more often than last year. Smith's numbers, this year and last:

2011-12: 67 games, .930 save %, 2.21 GAA, 8 SOs
2012-13: 32 games, .910 save %, 2.59 GAA, 5 SOs

A total of 144 goals allowed last year, and 79 this year. We've seen that our defense has allowed fewer shots on goal, but the quality of those shots against have gone up. Too many shots allowed between the circles and we are a little lax on the PK. We take away some of those shots between the circles, and Smith's numbers are right back to where they were last year, probably taking about 5-10 goals away thus far in the year.

Our issues appear to be this:

1. Defense did not tighten up the way it has in past years. Likely that some of this had to do with no training camp, and little tape study through the course of a condensed season.

2. Too many shots by our offense that get blocked. This year, I have seen more shots get knocked down or shot right into the opposition than years past. It becomes an even taller order when you see us trying to be as patient as possible, and then send it right into someone. At least last year, when we did take shots after passing up other opportunities, we were managing to get through traffic more than what we've shown this year.

3. Without Whitney, teams were able to key on Vrbata that much more. We were a stronger team on the puck with Whitney in the lineup b/c he would constantly move his feet. We don't move our feet as much, hence we are less solid on the puck.

4. Players may have bought into their own hype a little much. Maybe this is the issue with Vermette. Non-sensical penalties, etc. The move for Michalek was supposed to bring everything on our D full circle, yet we still have youger players in Schlemko and Stone still acclimating themselves to the game. Who knew Rozsival was that valuable?

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04-23-2013, 11:43 PM
  #58
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^^^^

Maybe #4 explains some of the undisciplined style, b/c we have been very undisciplined this year. And as much as we have made noise about our number of times getting shut out in a period, etc., we are still about on pace for a similar number of goals scored as we were last year.

Undisciplined on defense means we give up lanes for players to move through or get the puck on net better than previous years. We are on pace to give up 20+ more goals than we did last year, even with fewer shots against. Teams are getting better shots on us because we are not positioning ourselves well, and we have had less success on the counter-attack...

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Old
04-24-2013, 01:13 AM
  #59
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I really don't want the following players back.

Labarbera, great in the locker room, but Ocho has proved he can sub better than Babs
Bolduc, AHLer - enough said
Connor, AHLer - enough said
Michalek, $4m not worth it, needs to be moved for a 2/3 line winger
Gordon, we've got Brown to center 4th line with Klinhammer and Chipchura, I know he kills penalties, but provides no offense and might as well bring up the kid who scored 28 goals
Klesla, again almost $3m for 14min of TOI, too expensive to keep, should bring decent prospect along the lines of Reider or better


Can't, but should get rid of Vermette, but he's bound to have a better year and we're short on centers as it is.


? / ? /Doan
Boedker/Hanzal/Vrbata
Korpikoski/Vermette/Moss
Klinkhammer/Brown/Chipchura

OEL/Stone
Yandle/DeMo
Schlemko/Rundblad
Summers
Gormley

Smith (as long as he's 3.75m or less for 2 years)
Ocho

The biggest question mark is how GMDM is going to go get a 2nd line center and 2nd line winger that we'll have to play on the 1st line.

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Old
04-24-2013, 01:16 AM
  #60
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Personally I would just like the coach and GM back next season, arn't both their contracts up?

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Old
04-24-2013, 02:45 AM
  #61
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Personally I would just like the coach and GM back next season, arn't both their contracts up?
I'm of the same mindset, those are the 2 most important FA's we have in my opinion. If the Yotes lose those 2, I'm not liking their chances regardless of what players they get.

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Old
04-24-2013, 01:21 PM
  #62
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I really don't want the following players back.

Labarbera, great in the locker room, but Ocho has proved he can sub better than Babs
Bolduc, AHLer - enough said
Connor, AHLer - enough said
Michalek, $4m not worth it, needs to be moved for a 2/3 line winger
Gordon, we've got Brown to center 4th line with Klinhammer and Chipchura, I know he kills penalties, but provides no offense and might as well bring up the kid who scored 28 goals
Klesla, again almost $3m for 14min of TOI, too expensive to keep, should bring decent prospect along the lines of Reider or better

.....
Completely disagree with getting rid of Z, just because he doesn't put up points doesn't mean he isn't worth it. It may be worth it to go to behindthenet or a similar site to see his real value. He has some of the best numbers in the league in relation to his qualcomp. How quickly we forget how bad this team looked following his last departure.

I'd be ok running with:
OEL - Z
Yandle - Stone
Schlemko - Rundblad

If we can bring Summers back as the 7th d do it, but my guess is he walks to where he has a better opportunity for full time. Maybe bring in Valabik as 7th since he's in Portland now and knows the system or some vet on the cheap. Don't think Klesla or Morris will be resigned after next season so move em at the draft if possible.

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Old
04-24-2013, 01:47 PM
  #63
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Chris Brown is a winger and as far as I know never played center at Michigan or in Portland.

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04-24-2013, 01:49 PM
  #64
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Also, it's really easy to say the team needs to add two top line players. It's another thing all together to come up with a reasonable scenario by which this can be accomplished. We don't have the assets or the budget. It's just not in the cards. It's bargain shopping and finger crossing for us. That's it.

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04-24-2013, 04:43 PM
  #65
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Also, it's really easy to say the team needs to add two top line players. It's another thing all together to come up with a reasonable scenario by which this can be accomplished. We don't have the assets or the budget. It's just not in the cards. It's bargain shopping and finger crossing for us. That's it.
Pretty much, lucked out with Ray Whitney but struck out with Steve Sullivan. DM seriously needs to get some top 6 prospects out this draft.

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Old
04-24-2013, 05:03 PM
  #66
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How about the obvious?

Ray Whitney has been the difference. The Stars were not a playoff team last year and are closer to the playoffs with Whitney on board. Heck, if Whitney had not been injured during the year, I'd say that the Stars may have a spot locked up.

The difference is having a calm, steadying influence on offense who can make the plays that others can't.

Smith isn't having that much different of a year as he did last year. Our defense has broken down in front of him more often than last year. Smith's numbers, this year and last:

2011-12: 67 games, .930 save %, 2.21 GAA, 8 SOs
2012-13: 32 games, .910 save %, 2.59 GAA, 5 SOs

A total of 144 goals allowed last year, and 79 this year. We've seen that our defense has allowed fewer shots on goal, but the quality of those shots against have gone up. Too many shots allowed between the circles and we are a little lax on the PK. We take away some of those shots between the circles, and Smith's numbers are right back to where they were last year, probably taking about 5-10 goals away thus far in the year.

Our issues appear to be this:

1. Defense did not tighten up the way it has in past years. Likely that some of this had to do with no training camp, and little tape study through the course of a condensed season.

2. Too many shots by our offense that get blocked. This year, I have seen more shots get knocked down or shot right into the opposition than years past. It becomes an even taller order when you see us trying to be as patient as possible, and then send it right into someone. At least last year, when we did take shots after passing up other opportunities, we were managing to get through traffic more than what we've shown this year.

3. Without Whitney, teams were able to key on Vrbata that much more. We were a stronger team on the puck with Whitney in the lineup b/c he would constantly move his feet. We don't move our feet as much, hence we are less solid on the puck.

4. Players may have bought into their own hype a little much. Maybe this is the issue with Vermette. Non-sensical penalties, etc. The move for Michalek was supposed to bring everything on our D full circle, yet we still have youger players in Schlemko and Stone still acclimating themselves to the game. Who knew Rozsival was that valuable?
Scoring chances are down this year too, according to Tip. Those stats are a big change from last year for Smith. I do think Smith was great last year and sub par this year, that is the main problem. Keeping Ray would have been great and I for one would have rather see him get 4 mill then the Z trade. But, offensively, we are ranked about the same as last year compared to other teams, so that would indicate we are about the same offensively.

If it is a D problem, as you suggest, then why do we all think we have one of the best D top to bottom? Surely our D as individuals must be worth less then we think? Or do our forwards suck defensively?

My point is, we can't say we have one of the best D in the league, if we blame our D for an uptick in GAA. We can't blame the loss of Ray for our lack of scoring, since it is the same as last year. I don't buy the argument that the D turnovers are worse this year, leading to better chances then last years turnovers, and Ray had timely goals. These are convenient arguments but the stats don't back them up.

Basically, I think Smith was awesome last year, saved our tails many times, and is below average this year, hence we just miss the playoffs. Do we need more scoring? Yes, of course we do, same as last year. Is better goal tending more important next year? Yes, without better goal tending, any offensive upgrades won't matter.

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Old
04-24-2013, 05:04 PM
  #67
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Bödker-Vermette-Doan
Vrbata-Hanzal-Miele
Korpikoski-Gordon-Conner
Klinkhammer-Chipchura-Bolduc

Yandle-Morris
OEL-Michalek
Schlemko-Klesla

Smith
Mason

That's right, I predict a very dull offseason with pretty much nothing but resignings and depth signings.

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Old
04-24-2013, 05:14 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by Rutkowski View Post
Bödker-Vermette-Doan
Vrbata-Hanzal-Miele
Korpikoski-Gordon-Conner
Klinkhammer-Chipchura-Bolduc

Yandle-Morris
OEL-Michalek
Schlemko-Klesla

Smith
Mason

That's right, I predict a very dull offseason with pretty much nothing but resignings and depth signings.
That lineup finishes dead last in the West again. No questions ask. If we're playing Miele, Connor, Chipchura and Bolduc and Vermette is our #1 center, it would be a very long year.

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Old
04-24-2013, 05:48 PM
  #69
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Originally Posted by Rutkowski View Post
Bödker-Vermette-Doan
Vrbata-Hanzal-Miele
Korpikoski-Gordon-Conner
Klinkhammer-Chipchura-Bolduc

Yandle-Morris
OEL-Michalek
Schlemko-Klesla

Smith
Mason

That's right, I predict a very dull offseason with pretty much nothing but resignings and depth signings.
This will not even be close to next years line up.

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Old
04-24-2013, 05:50 PM
  #70
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Originally Posted by Sindiggy View Post
That lineup finishes dead last in the West again. No questions ask. If we're playing Miele, Connor, Chipchura and Bolduc and Vermette is our #1 center, it would be a very long year.
It will be the same as this year, out of the playoffs by game 45.

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Old
04-24-2013, 06:00 PM
  #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rutkowski View Post
Bödker-Vermette-Doan
Vrbata-Hanzal-Miele
Korpikoski-Gordon-Conner
Klinkhammer-Chipchura-Bolduc

Yandle-Morris
OEL-Michalek
Schlemko-Klesla

Smith
Mason

That's right, I predict a very dull offseason with pretty much nothing but resignings and depth signings.
a lot of re-signing

Which Mason? The one that just re-signed in Philly or the one that just turned 37 that plays (poorly lately) for Nashville but will be an UFA on July 5th.

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Old
04-24-2013, 06:09 PM
  #72
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Alright, I'm bored enough to actually try and make a roster for next year, numbers next to names would be actual salary not caphit:

Boedker (2.5M) - Krejci (5.25M) - Doan(5.55M)
Kopecky(3M) - Hanzal(2.75M) - Vrbata(3M)
Miele(850K) - Goc(1.7M) - Brown(870K)
Klinkhammer(1M) - Gordon(1.6M) - Moss(2.1M)
Bissonnette(750K)

Ekman-Larsson(3.5M) - Michalek(4M)
Schlemko(1.1M) - Stone(1.25M)
Klesla(2.975M) - Rundblad(1M)
Valabik(650K) or Summers(850K)

Smith(3.5M)
Johnson(1M)

Total money in salary: $49.895M - $50.095M (depending on Summers/Valabik)

Trades:
Yandle to Boston for Krejci + pick: Don't really want to do this now as I'd rather wait for Gormley and Rundblad to pan out before making a decision on the left side D, but it would give us a legit top 2 center. Krejci is only signed for 2 more years so I'd want something coming back in addition. Krejci also brings a cup ring.

Vermette + Korpikoski to Florida for Kopecky + Goc + pick: A little bit of a money saving and flexibility in the future move here. Florida may lose Weiss so Vermette would be a skill upgrade on Goc. Could drop Kopecky and Korpi from deal depending on money and preference,but Kopecky, like Krejci, brings a cup ring. Goc, very reliable wouldn't lose much on faceoffs, brings more offensively than Chip does. He is UFA after next season so I'd want some assurances or a pick coming back.

Morris moved for a pick(s)

If Gormley forces our hand and proves ready we could move Klesla, thereby saving money.

Signings:
Most are self explanatory, fudge with the numbers as you want.
Backloaded Boedkers deal to save money now, but I'd have him at about a 3M caphit.
I'd rather have Summers as 7th but I'm assuming he walks so Valabik is in Portland and doing fine, has NHL experience so sign him cheap as a 7th dman.
Miele, I don't know, maybe give him a shot on wing or find someone in free agency. Not necessarily make or break, but what the heck. He has skill, familiarity with Brown and Goc is very reliable, maybe it could work. If not, bump Klink up and play Biz until we find a replacement.
If Smith wants more than that, he can walk cause we can't afford it. I guess then I'd look at Neuvirth by trade or Griess in UFA.


Last edited by Sceva Sct: 04-24-2013 at 06:26 PM.
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Old
04-24-2013, 06:57 PM
  #73
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Alright, I'm bored enough to actually try and make a roster for next year...
I'm glad you are not the GM, I don't like any of the trades.

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Old
04-24-2013, 07:06 PM
  #74
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Scoring chances are down this year too, according to Tip. Those stats are a big change from last year for Smith. I do think Smith was great last year and sub par this year, that is the main problem. Keeping Ray would have been great and I for one would have rather see him get 4 mill then the Z trade. But, offensively, we are ranked about the same as last year compared to other teams, so that would indicate we are about the same offensively.

If it is a D problem, as you suggest, then why do we all think we have one of the best D top to bottom? Surely our D as individuals must be worth less then we think? Or do our forwards suck defensively?

My point is, we can't say we have one of the best D in the league, if we blame our D for an uptick in GAA. We can't blame the loss of Ray for our lack of scoring, since it is the same as last year. I don't buy the argument that the D turnovers are worse this year, leading to better chances then last years turnovers, and Ray had timely goals. These are convenient arguments but the stats don't back them up.

Basically, I think Smith was awesome last year, saved our tails many times, and is below average this year, hence we just miss the playoffs. Do we need more scoring? Yes, of course we do, same as last year. Is better goal tending more important next year? Yes, without better goal tending, any offensive upgrades won't matter.
I'll answer your questions, starting with paragraph 2:

Everyone says our D is better. I am one of the people who doesn't think so. While we may be giving up fewer shots on goal, we are allowing better quality shots. Same with scoring chances. Just b/c there is a decrease in shots or scoring chances doesn't mean that we are allowing similar quality opportunities. Our shots against per game could have gone down for several reasons:

1. We added Z back, which means an added shot blocker in the mix. If our number of blocked shots has increased, that means fewer pucks are getting to the goal, hence our shots on goal go down. That's an entirely plausible reason for why our shots on goal against has decreased.

2. Teams in the West got a taste of Smith's ability to play the puck last year. How do we know that coaches haven't been instructed to make sure that you dump the puck behind, rather than shooting at Smith so he can glove it, put it down, and play the puck? Difference is, when you glove it and play it, it counts as a shot on goal.

Last year, we gave up 31.6 SOG, and this year, it is 30.2. You could easily make the case that if an additional shot or two gets blocked per game and teams are avoiding letting Smith play the puck, that makes up the difference right there on a nightly basis.

Our forwards and d-men have also made far more turnovers that have led to odd-man rushes and shots that are tough to turn away. People have posted as much on these boards, so maybe, on paper we look like a better defense than what we have actually put on the ice.

As for the Whitney thing - I didn't say that we were a stronger goal-scoring team. I said we were stronger on the puck. Meaning that Whitney knew where to put the puck so that our players had the best chance to get it, whether that is in the corners, or tape-to-tape passes. I think that can be echoed when you look at the veterans we did not keep in Whitney, Rozsival, and Aucoin - all veteran players who had that "feel" for when and where to play the puck. I think we lost some of that going into this year, which is why we are seeing goals scored as fairly similar, but overall our possession of the puck has been slightly lacking. Plus, as we have found ourselves down more, our D is more likely to cheat up to join the rush, which again, can create problems in terms of quality scoring chances by the other team, b/c we may be out of position more often.

I don't think Smith has had a great year, but he has certainly not been the sole reason why we are struggling. I think our D has been out of position far more times this year than any of the other previous three years, and that is why the goals against are reflected as such. Again, go to NHL.com, and look at some of these games where 4+ goals are given up, and I think that you will see the same number of "bad" goals (goals Smith wants back) as last year in the replays. But you will see more goals scored from areas of the ice where we would not allow opponents to sneak into in previous seasons. That could be related to Smith if he is not talking with our defense, but I think that is an issue where everyone in the back 6 is not doing enough...

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04-24-2013, 07:18 PM
  #75
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^^^

Does anyone have information on number of giveaways/takeaways in games? I've searched NHL.com, but haven't found those stats presented.

That's going to be the easiest way to tell if we are shooting ourselves in the foot with turnovers. I feel like we stall in some areas b/c we are turning the puck over more often than what we have done in previous seasons, and if that is the case, there is another reason why we may be giving up more quality chances with the shots against down. Eventually, if your shots against are similar, but you turn the puck over more often, those give-aways are likely in worse positions on the ice for us to recover from and turn into long cycles for the other team.

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