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Total Hockey Rating (THoR): A comprehensive statistical rating of NHL Players

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04-25-2013, 02:06 PM
  #51
schuckers
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Indeed one can think of this as like Corsi in that it puts emphasis on shots and shot differential. We do that because we're tying events to the probability they lead to a goal. But unlike Corsi we give some weight to shots by location (x,y) and type of shot according to their probability of being a goal. (Before I get hammered on RTSS and shots, we adjust shot location by rink and then we break the O zone in to ~50 grids to get our probabilities of a goal.)

As Scott Cullen has noted we don't give credit for scoring a goal and that over long periods that seems to matter. We're thinking about ways to account for this that give credit for scoring but also recognize short term fluctuation in scoring rates.

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04-25-2013, 07:03 PM
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good idea poor execution

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04-25-2013, 07:35 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by RiverCityRumble View Post
good idea poor execution
Please elaborate.

We tend to expect a higher level of discourse in this subforum.

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04-26-2013, 09:44 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by schuckers View Post
Indeed one can think of this as like Corsi in that it puts emphasis on shots and shot differential. We do that because we're tying events to the probability they lead to a goal. But unlike Corsi we give some weight to shots by location (x,y) and type of shot according to their probability of being a goal. (Before I get hammered on RTSS and shots, we adjust shot location by rink and then we break the O zone in to ~50 grids to get our probabilities of a goal.)

As Scott Cullen has noted we don't give credit for scoring a goal and that over long periods that seems to matter. We're thinking about ways to account for this that give credit for scoring but also recognize short term fluctuation in scoring rates.
Hello Mr. Schuckers! I wasn't aware you were a member of the board.

Been a fan of yours at the MIT conference the past couple years. Not to mention Milbury and Burke were complete dicks with you last year. I like your idea behind your DIGR stat as well. Much more representative of a goalie efficiency than the various point shares stats.

Keep up the good work, don't forget that "creative people must be stopped" as coined by David Owens.

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04-27-2013, 09:13 AM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by schuckers View Post
Indeed one can think of this as like Corsi in that it puts emphasis on shots and shot differential. We do that because we're tying events to the probability they lead to a goal. But unlike Corsi we give some weight to shots by location (x,y) and type of shot according to their probability of being a goal. (Before I get hammered on RTSS and shots, we adjust shot location by rink and then we break the O zone in to ~50 grids to get our probabilities of a goal.)

As Scott Cullen has noted we don't give credit for scoring a goal and that over long periods that seems to matter. We're thinking about ways to account for this that give credit for scoring but also recognize short term fluctuation in scoring rates.
Adding data on the puck movement before the goal was scored may help. Getting goalies moving side to side with lateral puck movement is an important part of shot quality that isn't incorporated by shot location data.

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04-29-2013, 06:51 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Mathletic View Post
Hello Mr. Schuckers! I wasn't aware you were a member of the board.

Been a fan of yours at the MIT conference the past couple years. Not to mention Milbury and Burke were complete dicks with you last year. I like your idea behind your DIGR stat as well. Much more representative of a goalie efficiency than the various point shares stats.

Keep up the good work, don't forget that "creative people must be stopped" as coined by David Owens.
Thanks. Been reading here awhile and decided to post recently that arcticicehockey does much less analytics that aren't Jets related and given that THoR got some attention here. Burke was playing his role and Mibury was quite nice after.

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04-29-2013, 06:52 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by overpass View Post
Adding data on the puck movement before the goal was scored may help. Getting goalies moving side to side with lateral puck movement is an important part of shot quality that isn't incorporated by shot location data.
There is plenty of information like this that would be very useful. In addition to your list, the degree to which the goalie is screened and the percentage of passes completed/tipped would be a start.

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05-19-2013, 02:25 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by schuckers View Post
There is plenty of information like this that would be very useful. In addition to your list, the degree to which the goalie is screened and the percentage of passes completed/tipped would be a start.
Just wanted to let you know Mr. Schuckers that I'm a huge fan. Your work on Thor and DIGR is awesome. I'm just a junior in highschool but your no doubt one of my role models (I'm planning on majoring in either statistics or Applied/computational Mathematics and Statistics and I want to work heavily in the area of Hockey analytics).

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05-20-2013, 07:50 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Cunneen View Post
Just wanted to let you know Mr. Schuckers that I'm a huge fan. Your work on Thor and DIGR is awesome. I'm just a junior in highschool but your no doubt one of my role models (I'm planning on majoring in either statistics or Applied/computational Mathematics and Statistics and I want to work heavily in the area of Hockey analytics).
Thanks. I'd recommend taking as much programming and CS as you can and don't neglect the communication side. Good writing and public speaking are important.

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05-20-2013, 10:46 PM
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Thanks. I'd recommend taking as much programming and CS as you can and don't neglect the communication side. Good writing and public speaking are important.
thanks, really appreciate the advice.

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05-20-2013, 11:13 PM
  #61
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Thanks. I'd recommend taking as much programming and CS as you can and don't neglect the communication side. Good writing and public speaking are important.
Would you recommend double majoring in computer science and stat in college, or Major in one and minor in the other.

I have no programming or computer science experience at all (taking a Java programing course next year as a senior). I do have a strong math background and am taking AP Calc BC and AP Stat next year as a senior.

Thanks,
Pierce Cunneen

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Old
05-22-2013, 02:25 PM
  #62
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I really look forward to this being a great thing that works very well and isn't a bit subjective and prone to human error and that all of the statistics are there, including the 'non obvious ones' like say, time on ice spent in front of the goalie. Doesn't seem like it's the 'be all end all' to hockey analytics yet, but I hope it gets there.

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