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Jim Coleman Conference 2nd round - Pittsburgh AC vs. Philadelphia Flyers

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04-27-2013, 04:55 PM
  #26
Rob Scuderi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
3rd Lines

Red Berenson VsX as a LW: 4, 10, 21, 4, 10, 64
Red Berenson VsX as a C: 7, 77, 83, 59, 59, 41, 63, 29, 39, 47, 35

Red Berenson started his career as a LW, and wasn't really able to stick in the original 6 NHL. When expansion happened, he moved to St. Louis, faced the weak competition of the West division, played at center(except the 64), and managed scores of 64, 77, and 83. For the first 3 years after expansion, St. Louis made the cup finals from the West division, and was swept 3 years in a row. That just goes to show that the division really was quite inferior. Berenson has two decent offensive seasons in the East division when he was with the Red Wings with scores of 59 and 62, but he was at center. I'm not really all that convinced of Berenson's offense as a left wing.

Dave Trottier isn't anything special at left wing offensively, with scores of 88, 70, 60, 51, 50, but it's definitely more of a proven track record at wing than Berenson. The VsX system also likely underrates Trottier because he was not the main left wing on his team for the majority of his career, that was usually Baldy Northcott or Babe Siebert during the S Line days. I'd say they're about equal otherwise, being good defensive players and good skaters. Trottier's proven track record at LW makes me rather have him.
I don't think Trottier and Berenson are close at all. Trottier does have solid vsX scores for being a second-tier forward and there are quotes about his backchecking, but he's not even the best Maroon on either of our lines. Berenson was the best player in the expansion division and finished 3rd and 4th in Hart voting. Being rigid for the sake of it regarding his positions is the only way to make this look even, yet you prefer Trottier for it. There's no way you should believe the wingers here rank Gare, Ward, Trottier, Berenson.

Quote:
Ward: 78, 76, 76, 75, 62, 59, 53, 51
Gare: 75, 71, 63, 61, 58, 49, 49

Ward is a better overall offensive player, Gare is a better goal scorer, which is what I needed next to Ratelle. Gare brings a lot of physicality and grit to the table, as well as being good defensively. Ward isn't as physical, and is probably about the same defensively, maybe slightly better.

Philadelphia has the advantage on 3rd lines because of the big advantage Jean Ratelle has over Neil Colville. The wings are much closer. The lines are overall close defensively, and Philadelphia's line is more physical.
Ratelle is clearly the best player here and I'm cool with that pushing these lines to your favor. I think the wings are close too, but I think Ward and Berenson are better than Gare and Trottier. Pittsburgh's line isn't as physical, but those wingers are very fast and will be flying as Colville dipsy doodles.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
4th Lines

Walter as a LW: 59, 60, 39, 28, 35, 43, 27, 22, 18
Walter as a C: 48, 50, 50, 15

Walter started as a center(those first three center scores), then switched to a left wing for the next 9 years, then back to center for the final 3 years of his career(only one of which where he played a significant amount of games, the 15 score). His two best seasons are at LW, then his 3rd, 4th, and 5th best are at center. His decrease in point production when he moved to LW probably had more to do with being traded to Montreal. His 7 best is 349.

Richards: 73, 71, 67, 57, 57*, 45, 32, 28(7 best 402)

*This season. Just looking at the numbers, Richards is definitely better offensively. But, he's playing out of his natural position, playing at LW in this case. Playing LW isn't something unfamiliar to him, he's played some left wing in LA, and played LW on the shutdown line for Team Canada in the 2010 Olympics.



http://www.nhl.com/ice/blogpost.htm?id=5302

Richards is also known as a very versatile player, who is very coachable and will play in any situation. I don't expect his offense to fully translate to the wing, but I still think it will be better than Walter's. He managed 5 points in 7 games in those Olympics while at wing, and was still very effective defensively. Richards also boasts a stronger playoff resume with two top 6 finishes in points(again, out of position), and a playoff PPG in a lower scoring era that is much better than Walter's(.783 to .451). But, Richards' real value is his defensive ability, and he's going to be the one that is going up against Andy Bathgate. With four top 8 finishes in Selke voting(2, 5, 7, 8), his record is definitely better than Walter's, who received token support in 3 years, and was 8th in one year, but that was with just two votes. Again, even though Richards is out of his normal position, I'll take him over Walter on both offense and defense. The only thing Walter has on Richards is toughness. Richards is known for throwing big hits every once in awhile, but Walter has more consistent physicality.
If only Berenson being very versatile, coachable, and willing to play in any situation counted. It seems inconsistent that you hammer Berenson because of his positions, but then let it fly for your guy. You dismissed years of Berenson playing the wing in the NHL, but Richards is fine because he did it in the Olympics and odd shifts with LA - I don't get it. FWIW, I agree Richards is better than Ryan Walter, but then again I think Berenson's better than Trottier.

Quote:
Steen: 63, 62, 58, 51, 49, 48, 47, 46, 45, 41(7 year total 378)
Goring: 81, 75, 70, 67, 66, 61, 58, 57, 47, 44, 43, 42(7 year total 478)

Pretty big edge to Goring there. Goring was also known as a strong playoff performer, being a key cog in the Islanders dynasty and winning a Conn Smythe despite being 5th on his team in scoring in the playoffs, a testament to his defense and play without the puck. Neither has a Selke resume that is particularly impressive, Goring has 12, 13, 17, 23, 24 and Steen has 8, 14, 17. Considering the findings about top centers facing Goring in the playoffs, I'll take him defensively. Goring is clearly a better all-around player.
Agreed Goring is clearly a better all-around player, but I'm not planning on putting my 4th line center up against Beliveau/Taylor. For his playoff heroic(s?), Goring's Selke record is worse than Steen's. We'll see how that matchup plays out.

Quote:
4th lines are an advantage to Philadelphia, both offensively and defensively. Add up the 7 year totals for both lines, Pittsburgh's is 1,151. Philadelphia's is 1,216. Philadelphia's line is better defensively also.
I'll take Richards as the best defensive player on either line, but I don't see Goring separating himself defensively the way you do. Walter's bio is full of quotes about his defensive game. Steen's as well. I'd say these are two lines that fairly close overall. Goring's the best offensively, Richards is pretty good, Stewart a blackhole. Steen and Pappin pretty good offensively, and Walter's below average.


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Old
04-27-2013, 05:39 PM
  #27
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Covering Gretzky in 83-84:

Quote:
Originally Posted by May 9, 1984
"You certainly don't watch other players with the same attention you do Gretzky," said Goring, who figures to spend a good part of his time shadowing him.
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...efensive&hl=en

Quote:
Originally Posted by May 8, 1984
"They like to play that run and gun hockey and are happy to beat you 6-5," said Islanders center Butch Goring, who will draw much of the checking work against Gretzky. "A shootout is their preference."
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...ng+check&hl=en

Covering Gretzky in 82-83:

Quote:
Originally Posted by May 11, 1983
Butch Goring, who spent much of the night shadowing Gretzky, said the Islanders were fortunate to escape with the victory.
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...+gretzky&hl=en

Quote:
Originally Posted by December 14, 1983
But after Butch Goring, who was usually matched up against Wayne Gretzky, ...
https://www.google.com/search?q=gori...w=1366&bih=638

I can't find anything about checking the other guys though.

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04-28-2013, 12:17 AM
  #28
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Defense

This is the one big, key advantage that Philadelphia has over Pittsburgh. If Philadelphia is going to win this series, it's going to have a lot to do with the advantage that we have in top-end defensemen.

#1: Brad Park vs. Brian Leetch

Park holds a clear advantage here. He finished behind Orr and Potvin for all of those 2nd place finishes in Norris voting, and faced much tougher competition. Had Park been playing during during Leetch's career, he would have won multiple Norris trophies. Park is a borderline top 10 defenseman of all time, whereas Leetch is a below average #1 that is one of the last #1s remaining where he gets drafted. Park holds a big advantage here, and it's going to be a key advantage.

#2: Scott Niedermayer vs. Alexei Kasatonov

This is another advantage for Philadelphia. When I examine Kasatonov's NHL resume, I'm not very impressed. Defensemen tend to peak later than forwards, and he entered the NHL at the age of 30, which should still be a very productive age. I know Soviets tended to burn out earlier than North Americans, but if he was such an elite player, I would have expected more from him. There is also the argument that their styles of play were so suited to the Soviet style that they came over here and played a different game than they were used to. I can buy this theory a little bit. As Sturminator has noted, Canadian influences began to really be seen in Soviet hockey starting in the 70s, and by the 1980s Tikhonov had used them extensively, so I don't buy that the game was all that different. I can buy these excuses a little bit for each one. Here are his TOI ranks in his NHL seasons:

OV: 3, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3
ES: 5, 5, 4, 2, 2, 3
PK: 3, 1, 3, 3, 5, 4

The guy was basically a #3 defenseman in the NHL from age 30 to 35. I'd expect better from a guy who is supposed to be a top 50 defenseman of all time. He received just one fourth place vote for the AS teams in 1990. That's his entire North American voting record. Niedermayer is an odd comparison because his peak started at the age of 30, but during Niedermayer's time from 30 to 35, he won a Norris, was 2nd for two more, and captained a team to a Stanley Cup.

I've always been puzzled by most of the Green Unit because when they all came over to the NHL, none were able to match the reputation that they had internationally. I'll give small credit for stylistic changes, and the fact that they were probably on the decline of their peak, but none of them ever showed anything that would even be good for a declining peak of an elite NHLer, which is where they are drafted. Fetisov and Kasatonov have a combined two total votes for AS, Larionov's best VsX score was 61, and Makarov's best was 69. I don't expect them to light the world on fire, but I'm not impressed. Their international resume is great, but their NHL resume is lacking. Why? My best guess is that they functioned so well as a unit that they were able to compete with the NHL greats in the 1980s. My understanding is also that in the 1980s, Team Canada sent more of an "all star team" instead of trying to form a real cohesive team to beat the Soviets. It was more of a skills competition for them. So they had more talent, but it didn't function well compared to the 5 man unit the Soviets had.

However you slice it, Niedermayer definitely had the advantage over Kasatonov here.

#3: Lionel Hitchman vs. Pat Stapleton

Stapleton is no contest better offensively, Hitchman probably better defensively. Comparing voting records for these guys is hard because Hitchman only had voting records for the last 4 years of his career(age 29-32) and managed 5th and 10th in AS voting in a consolidated league. In the year before they started AS voting, he was 2nd in Hart voting, first among defensemen, so that basically gives him 1, 5, 10 for the last 5 years of his career. There were definitely good, vote-worthy years in the middle there considering his reputation leaguewide as a premier defensive defenseman. Stapleton's AS record is 4, 4, 4, 7, 8, 12, 13, 13. Even with the years Hitchman would have received votes, we don't know if it could surpass that. Pittsburgh gets the advantage in #3s.

#4: Vitaly Davydov vs. Barry Beck

Beck's a great player, and was definitely a better defenseman than Davydov at his peak when he was healthy. The key there is when he was healthy. Beck averaged 61.5 NHL games per season over 10 seasons, meaning he missed about 20% of the season on average. So in a 7 game series, you would expect him to miss 1.4 games. I think it's reasonable to say Beck will miss one game this series at least. He played only 7.7 real "80 game seasons". By comparison, Davydov was named to a Soviet all star team for 7 seasons, 6 on the 1st team and one on the 2nd team. Vitaly Davydov was a world champion 9 times, and Beck only played 7.7 "seasons". Beck's voting record and intangibles look great, but he had such a short career. Beck is still the better #4, but I think people give him more of a pass in regards to his injuries than he deserves. I think that idea as a whole is something the ATD underrates and doesn't justly punish guys who were injury prone.

#5: Kevin Hatcher vs. Frank Patrick

Without looking, these are probably two of, if not the, two best #5s in the draft. Kevin Hatcher would be a decent #4, Frank Patrick is a good #4. Pittsburgh gets the advantage here.

#6: Bob Armstrong vs. Willie Mitchell

Both are strong stay at home defensemen, but I think Armstrong is on another level. Looking at their voting records:

Norris
Armstrong: 7, 8, 9, 13
Mitchell: 1 vote in 2012

AS
Armstrong: 6, 8, 10, 13
Mitchell: 2 votes in 2009, 1 vote in 2007 & 2012

Mitchell's voting underrates his abilities as a shutdown defenseman, but Armstrong wins here.

Defense comes out to an overall advantage to Philadelphia because of the advantage at the top end, with Park and Niedermayer over Leetch and Kasatonov.

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04-28-2013, 12:42 AM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bring Back Scuderi View Post
I don't think Trottier and Berenson are close at all. Trottier does have solid vsX scores for being a second-tier forward and there are quotes about his backchecking, but he's not even the best Maroon on either of our lines. Berenson was the best player in the expansion division and finished 3rd and 4th in Hart voting. Being rigid for the sake of it regarding his positions is the only way to make this look even, yet you prefer Trottier for it. There's no way you should believe the wingers here rank Gare, Ward, Trottier, Berenson.
If you think Red Berenson was the 3rd and 4th most valuable player in the NHL those years, I'm not sure what to say. The second and third highest scorers in the West division in 68-69 were Ted Hampson and Danny Grant, AAA players. In 69-70, Berenson was outscored by a 38 year old Phil Goyette, and JP Parise. Next behind Berenson from that division were Tommy Williams and Bill Goldsworthy, who were 5 and 7 points behind Berenson. To say that the NHL talent was ridiculously concentrated in the East division would be an understatement. I slammed Red Berenson because he has one season at left wing where he ever did anything close to relevant offensively. And that season was 67-68, where he started with the Rangers before being traded to the Blues to play against the weaker competition. In the east division for the Rangers, he put up 3 points in 19 games(.16PPG). Then, he was traded to the Blues and put up 51 points in 55 games(.93PPG). He wasn't a regular player in the O6, and then all of a sudden he's one of the most valuable players in the league? It doesn't add up at all. I don't buy his offense. I'll buy he's a good skater and a checker. So is Dave Trottier. And his offense is better.

Quote:
Ratelle is clearly the best player here and I'm cool with that pushing these lines to your favor. I think the wings are close too, but I think Ward and Berenson are better than Gare and Trottier. Pittsburgh's line isn't as physical, but those wingers are very fast and will be flying as Colville dipsy doodles.
Jimmy Ward is the best winger on either line, but I would take Trottier and Gare over Berenson.

Quote:
If only Berenson being very versatile, coachable, and willing to play in any situation counted. It seems inconsistent that you hammer Berenson because of his positions, but then let it fly for your guy. You dismissed years of Berenson playing the wing in the NHL, but Richards is fine because he did it in the Olympics and odd shifts with LA - I don't get it. FWIW, I agree Richards is better than Ryan Walter, but then again I think Berenson's better than Trottier.
I didn't let it fly for Richards, I said "I don't expect his offense to fully translate to the wing, but I still think it will be better than Walter's." I should have made a more severe mark on that, his offense will take a significant hit playing on the wing compared to center. Fair?
Quote:
Agreed Goring is clearly a better all-around player, but I'm not planning on putting my 4th line center up against Beliveau/Taylor. For his playoff heroic(s?), Goring's Selke record is worse than Steen's. We'll see how that matchup plays out.
Are you planning on doing any line matching at all? Just curious.


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04-28-2013, 02:23 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
Defense

This is the one big, key advantage that Philadelphia has over Pittsburgh. If Philadelphia is going to win this series, it's going to have a lot to do with the advantage that we have in top-end defensemen.
You definitely have an advantage at 1 and 2, but I think I take 3, 4, 5 pretty conclusively too.

Quote:
#2: Scott Niedermayer vs. Alexei Kasatonov

This is another advantage for Philadelphia. When I examine Kasatonov's NHL resume, I'm not very impressed. Defensemen tend to peak later than forwards, and he entered the NHL at the age of 30, which should still be a very productive age. I know Soviets tended to burn out earlier than North Americans, but if he was such an elite player, I would have expected more from him. There is also the argument that their styles of play were so suited to the Soviet style that they came over here and played a different game than they were used to. I can buy this theory a little bit. As Sturminator has noted, Canadian influences began to really be seen in Soviet hockey starting in the 70s, and by the 1980s Tikhonov had used them extensively, so I don't buy that the game was all that different. I can buy these excuses a little bit for each one. Here are his TOI ranks in his NHL seasons:

OV: 3, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3
ES: 5, 5, 4, 2, 2, 3
PK: 3, 1, 3, 3, 5, 4

The guy was basically a #3 defenseman in the NHL from age 30 to 35. I'd expect better from a guy who is supposed to be a top 50 defenseman of all time. He received just one fourth place vote for the AS teams in 1990. That's his entire North American voting record. Niedermayer is an odd comparison because his peak started at the age of 30, but during Niedermayer's time from 30 to 35, he won a Norris, was 2nd for two more, and captained a team to a Stanley Cup.

I've always been puzzled by most of the Green Unit because when they all came over to the NHL, none were able to match the reputation that they had internationally. I'll give small credit for stylistic changes, and the fact that they were probably on the decline of their peak, but none of them ever showed anything that would even be good for a declining peak of an elite NHLer, which is where they are drafted. Fetisov and Kasatonov have a combined two total votes for AS, Larionov's best VsX score was 61, and Makarov's best was 69. I don't expect them to light the world on fire, but I'm not impressed. Their international resume is great, but their NHL resume is lacking. Why? My best guess is that they functioned so well as a unit that they were able to compete with the NHL greats in the 1980s. My understanding is also that in the 1980s, Team Canada sent more of an "all star team" instead of trying to form a real cohesive team to beat the Soviets. It was more of a skills competition for them. So they had more talent, but it didn't function well compared to the 5 man unit the Soviets had.

However you slice it, Niedermayer definitely had the advantage over Kasatonov here.
Definitely, but focusing on the worst part of Kasatonov's career is a good way to make it look worse. He's an 8 time Soviet All-star, 5 time WC All-star, and 1 time WC Best Defender. It's funny you talk about Davydov's Soviet career in the 60s below and gloss over Alexei's in a much better era.

Quote:
#4: Vitaly Davydov vs. Barry Beck

Beck's a great player, and was definitely a better defenseman than Davydov at his peak when he was healthy. The key there is when he was healthy. Beck averaged 61.5 NHL games per season over 10 seasons, meaning he missed about 20% of the season on average. So in a 7 game series, you would expect him to miss 1.4 games. I think it's reasonable to say Beck will miss one game this series at least. He played only 7.7 real "80 game seasons". By comparison, Davydov was named to a Soviet all star team for 7 seasons, 6 on the 1st team and one on the 2nd team. Vitaly Davydov was a world champion 9 times, and Beck only played 7.7 "seasons". Beck's voting record and intangibles look great, but he had such a short career. Beck is still the better #4, but I think people give him more of a pass in regards to his injuries than he deserves. I think that idea as a whole is something the ATD underrates and doesn't justly punish guys who were injury prone.
So worst case scenario Ryan Suter has to sub in for a game? The worst case scenario for Davydov was that he was a physical shutdown defender against Europeans who couldn't play the same game against Canadian professionals a la Evgeny Paladiev. Who was Davydov competing against for his all-stars in a weak Soviet era? Is counting WC golds really effective, particularly in his era? I think he could be your worst defenseman. All I see are things Kasatonov did better in a stronger era, but got ignored for being merely effective in the NHL. Punish Beck for injuries all you want, this is Brad Park-Brian Leetch unbalanced.

Quote:
#5: Kevin Hatcher vs. Frank Patrick

Without looking, these are probably two of, if not the, two best #5s in the draft. Kevin Hatcher would be a decent #4, Frank Patrick is a good #4. Pittsburgh gets the advantage here.
I know you keep selling Hatcher based on 70s study and his all-star record, but I don't think this is very close either.

#6: Bob Armstrong vs. Willie Mitchell

Both are strong stay at home defensemen, but I think Armstrong is on another level. Looking at their voting records:

Norris
Armstrong: 7, 8, 9, 13
Mitchell: 1 vote in 2012

AS
Armstrong: 6, 8, 10, 13
Mitchell: 2 votes in 2009, 1 vote in 2007 & 2012

Mitchell's voting underrates his abilities as a shutdown defenseman, but Armstrong wins here. [/quote]
Agreed Armstrong is better, but he's going to really struggle playing on your second pair in this series. He can't skate very well and is going to deal with Pittsburgh's quick team pressing with the five man attack all series long. I think this is going to be a big benefit to our game.

Quote:
Defense comes out to an overall advantage to Philadelphia because of the advantage at the top end, with Park and Niedermayer over Leetch and Kasatonov.
I agree you have the advantage at the top end, but is this really and advantage for Philly considering the pairings?

Park-Hitchman > Leetch-Kasatonov
Niedermayer-Armstrong < Beck-Stapleton
Hatcher-Davydov < Patrick-Mitchell

I think looking at pairings muddles the key advantage you claim to have.

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04-28-2013, 02:27 PM
  #31
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Goaltending

This is another advantage that Philadelphia is going to have that will play a pivotal role in the series. Grant Fuhr is as good of a playoff goaltender as there is. I don't know if there's another goalie that elevates his game more from the regular season to the playoffs than Fuhr. One thing that Grant has on Rayner is that Grant was, for a stretch of 4-5 years, the best goalie in the world. The numbers and voting may not suggest it, but there are copious amounts of articles that call him the best in the world. Rayner was never the best in the world. You could make the argument that Rayner faced tougher competition in Durnan/Broda/Brimsek, but I think goaltending in the 1980s is generally under appreciated. Furh faced Billy Smith, Patrick Roy, and Tom Barrasso.

Neither one of these goalies received much good defensive support from their teams, but it was for two very different reasons. Rayner's teams weren't good, and Fuhr's teams didn't play defense. When Rayner was in the playoffs, he was good. But, that was only for a total of two seasons. We can't punish him for playing for a bad team, but the fact is he has very little playoff experience. When he was there, he was good, but it was for a short time. Fuhr won four cups, and was known as the premier playoff goaltender of the day. Fuhr definitely has an advantage here, and he has the ability to steal games by himself in the playoffs.

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04-28-2013, 02:45 PM
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Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
Goaltending

This is another advantage that Philadelphia is going to have that will play a pivotal role in the series. Grant Fuhr is as good of a playoff goaltender as there is. I don't know if there's another goalie that elevates his game more from the regular season to the playoffs than Fuhr. One thing that Grant has on Rayner is that Grant was, for a stretch of 4-5 years, the best goalie in the world. The numbers and voting may not suggest it, but there are copious amounts of articles that call him the best in the world. Rayner was never the best in the world. You could make the argument that Rayner faced tougher competition in Durnan/Broda/Brimsek, but I think goaltending in the 1980s is generally under appreciated. Furh faced Billy Smith, Patrick Roy, and Tom Barrasso.

Neither one of these goalies received much good defensive support from their teams, but it was for two very different reasons. Rayner's teams weren't good, and Fuhr's teams didn't play defense. When Rayner was in the playoffs, he was good. But, that was only for a total of two seasons. We can't punish him for playing for a bad team, but the fact is he has very little playoff experience. When he was there, he was good, but it was for a short time. Fuhr won four cups, and was known as the premier playoff goaltender of the day. Fuhr definitely has an advantage here, and he has the ability to steal games by himself in the playoffs.
Doug Vaughan, Windsor Daily Star, 1-16-1950
Highlight of the Red Wing-Ranger game--apart from the "master-minding"--was another of those remarkable displays of goaltending by Chuck Rayner.

For a period and a half, the Gotham puck-defending magician did not have much to do. But once the aroused Red Wings started to roll, following two fast Ranger tallies, he was kept busier than a one-armed paper-hanger with the hives. The league-leaders rained shots at him from all angles. There were occasions where he was forced to boot out as many as three and four blistering drives in a matter of seconds. In the third period alone, following the complete collapse of his defence, he made a total of 19 saves, not counting the 2 shots that got by him.

For the past several years this corner has contended that Rayner is the best goalie in the league. We continue to say so. Front him a defence the equal of that which stands guard in front of Montreal's Bill Durnan, and we are sure he would prove it even to those die-hards who cling to the out-moded notion that the goals-against record provides a true picture of the ability of the goaltender.

The Montreal Gazette (Dink Carroll) - 4/19/1950
The Hockey News has selected Chuck Rayner as the leading player of the past season, Jim Hendy as top executive and Mud Bruneteau as the best coach. There is no denying that all three did splendid jobs.

The Montreal Gazette (Dink Carroll) - 1/20/1951
Maurice Richard, who was selected as hockey's top performer in 1950 by Sport Magazine's board of experts, will be presented with the award at a gathering...The Rocket was an easy winner, only Chuck Rayner and Sid Abel getting mentions

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04-28-2013, 03:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
If you think Red Berenson was the 3rd and 4th most valuable player in the NHL those years, I'm not sure what to say. The second and third highest scorers in the West division in 68-69 were Ted Hampson and Danny Grant, AAA players. In 69-70, Berenson was outscored by a 38 year old Phil Goyette, and JP Parise. Next behind Berenson from that division were Tommy Williams and Bill Goldsworthy, who were 5 and 7 points behind Berenson. To say that the NHL talent was ridiculously concentrated in the East division would be an understatement. I slammed Red Berenson because he has one season at left wing where he ever did anything close to relevant offensively. And that season was 67-68, where he started with the Rangers before being traded to the Blues to play against the weaker competition. In the east division for the Rangers, he put up 3 points in 19 games(.16PPG). Then, he was traded to the Blues and put up 51 points in 55 games(.93PPG). He wasn't a regular player in the O6, and then all of a sudden he's one of the most valuable players in the league? It doesn't add up at all. I don't buy his offense. I'll buy he's a good skater and a checker. So is Dave Trottier. And his offense is better.
How is his offense better if you're not discounting seasons Berenson was at center?

His breakout was startling, but his former manager wasn't surprised.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sports Illustrated - 3/25/1968
"I remember a plane trip I made with Emile last spring," says Bowman. "He said that someday, somewhere, Berenson was going to make somebody a helluva hockey player. He said he only wished it could be in New York." It has happened instead in St. Louis, to the surprise of neither Bowman, Francis nor Berenson himself—although few others in hockey expected any such miracle.

Without Berenson, says Bowman, the Blues would merely be playing out the season for experience.
Berenson led his club in scoring twice and 6 times in the top 3. He put up points against 06 Clubs too, here's what I found using HSP.
1968: 16 GP, 5G, 9A, 14 PTS
1969: 36 GP, 14 G, 13 A, 27 PTS
1970: 36 GP, 13 G, 11 A, 24 PTS

You can argue his Hart is inflated by the division split, but he was still a bigger star in those seasons than anyone outside of Ratelle on our third lines.

Quote:
I didn't let it fly for Richards, I said "I don't expect his offense to fully translate to the wing, but I still think it will be better than Walter's." I should have made a more severe mark on that, his offense will take a significant hit playing on the wing compared to center. Fair?
But what makes it better than Walter's? I agree he is, but if we're sticking to your methodology that you can only count what he did at the position, then Richards has no offense outside of 5 points in the Olympics, less than Berenson and Walter.

Quote:
Are you planning on doing any line matching at all? Just curious.
I don't think I'll be hardmatching. Probably just play lines based on the situation. Beliveau and Walter are my best faceoff men so I see them being trusted with defensive zone draws when possible. I don't know anything about Colville on faceoffs, but his line is solid defensively so they could be used as well. I'll probably try to keep Morris's line starting in the offensive or neutral zones.

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04-28-2013, 03:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Bring Back Scuderi View Post

For the past several years this corner has contended that Rayner is the best goalie in the league. We continue to say so. Front him a defence the equal of that which stands guard in front of Montreal's Bill Durnan, and we are sure he would prove it even to those die-hards who cling to the out-moded notion that the goals-against record provides a true picture of the ability of the goaltender.
This is a great quote, BBS, and not just for Rayner. Recently, some of us have had sharp criticism for the fact that the 1st Team AS always went to the GAA leader during this period, but this is the first time I've seen a contemporary reporter criticize the over-reliance on GAA.

After Frank Brimsek, Rayner is probably the player helped the most by the observation that in years when the GAA-leader wasn't actually the best goalie in the league, then the 2nd Team AS would have been.


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04-28-2013, 03:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Bring Back Scuderi View Post
I don't think I'll be hardmatching. Probably just play lines based on the situation. Beliveau and Walter are my best faceoff men so I see them being trusted with defensive zone draws when possible. I don't know anything about Colville on faceoffs, but his line is solid defensively so they could be used as well. I'll probably try to keep Morris's line starting in the offensive or neutral zones.
This will certainly be a new role for Beliveau, who likely saw the easiest defensive assignments in Montreal with Henri Richard and Ken Mosdell the 2nd and 3rd line centers for his first Cup, with Ralph Backstrom and Phil Goyette replacing Mosdell for most of Beliveau's time there.

But I guess that's the norm for this division.

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04-28-2013, 03:36 PM
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
This will certainly be a new role for Beliveau, who likely saw the easiest defensive assignments in Montreal with Henri Richard and Ken Mosdell the 2nd and 3rd line centers for his first Cup, with Ralph Backstrom and Phil Goyette replacing Mosdell for most of Beliveau's time there.

But I guess that's the norm for this division.
You're right, he definitely did always have great checkers on his squad. He did have checking skills though and was pretty good on faceoffs so with Olmstead I think he'll be up for the challenge. Thornton's Philly's only big center and I'm not sure his checking skills are enough to match Beliveau so I like his chances carrying the puck up ice matched against Goring/Ratelle.

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04-28-2013, 07:54 PM
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Coaching
Hart
394 NHL games coached, 196-125-73 record
Two-time winner of Stanley Cup (1930 and 1931)
Team Finishes: 1st place five times (1928, 1929, 1931, 1932, 1937), 2nd place twice (1927, 1930), 3rd place once (1938), 6th place once (1939)

Muldoon
155-131-2 career record in PCHA
4x PCHA Champion(1917-18, 1919-20, 1921-22, 1923-24)
3x Stanley Cup Finalist(1916-17, 1918-19, 1919-20)
1x Stanley Cup Champion(1917)

Muldoon has more Stanley Cup appearances over Hart, but I think that's his only advantage. Hart finished first in the regular season five times and has the extra Cup win. Hart also deserves some credit for his employment of the five-man attack. I'm not sure Muldoon was an innovator, just a solid balanced coach who liked toughness on his team.

I've posted about my team being full of speed to fit Hart's gameplan, does Philly have the toughness Muldoon liked?

I think coaching is an advantage for Pittsburgh here.

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04-28-2013, 11:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bring Back Scuderi View Post
Definitely, but focusing on the worst part of Kasatonov's career is a good way to make it look worse. He's an 8 time Soviet All-star, 5 time WC All-star, and 1 time WC Best Defender. It's funny you talk about Davydov's Soviet career in the 60s below and gloss over Alexei's in a much better era.
The big time defensemen for the two eras(with where I think they stand in the ATD) were:

Fetisov(#1), Kasatonov(#2), Pervukhin(#6), Bilyatednov(#5), Konstantinov(#4 or bad #3), Gusarov(spare)

Ragulin(#3), Davydov(#4), Ivanov(#4), Kuzkin(#5)

Fetisov and Kasatonov were definitely better top-end talent for the two eras, but beyond that, are the other 1980s Soviet defensemen that much more impressive? It very well could be that we underrate them in the ATD and overrate the guys from the 1960s, but the way that they're used now, the top end talent was better in Fetisov/Kasatonov, but the rest doesn't seem all that much better. Sturm's analysis of defensemen in this draft fits with these rankings of where they belong as well.
Quote:
So worst case scenario Ryan Suter has to sub in for a game? The worst case scenario for Davydov was that he was a physical shutdown defender against Europeans who couldn't play the same game against Canadian professionals a la Evgeny Paladiev. Who was Davydov competing against for his all-stars in a weak Soviet era? Is counting WC golds really effective, particularly in his era? I think he could be your worst defenseman. All I see are things Kasatonov did better in a stronger era, but got ignored for being merely effective in the NHL. Punish Beck for injuries all you want, this is Brad Park-Brian Leetch unbalanced.
His competition is listed above. Does Kasatonov's competition really seem that much better than Davydov's? The point of saying he won 9 gold medals was to show that the longevity of his career is much longer than Beck's, not that it's particularly impressive.
Quote:
I know you keep selling Hatcher based on 70s study and his all-star record, but I don't think this is very close either.
Sturm, one of the most respected posters around here, has Frank Patrick as top 105 all time among defensemen. He has Hatcher as top 122. Frank Patrick is clearly better(he'd probably be a #2 defenseman is he actually kept playing), but Kevin Hatcher seems to have this stigma attached to him that people refuse to ignore despite all the evidence pointing in his favor. Between AS votes, good offense, and heavy usage at ES and PK for teams with weak goalies, and those teams being good ES and PK teams, there is certainly enough evidence to show he was very effective. What more does the guy need to do?

Quote:
Agreed Armstrong is better, but he's going to really struggle playing on your second pair in this series. He can't skate very well and is going to deal with Pittsburgh's quick team pressing with the five man attack all series long. I think this is going to be a big benefit to our game.
Bob Armstrong isn't a great skater. I'm not sure why this is such a problem, the guy lasted 10+ years in the O6 NHL, and going by the votes and seeing who was ahead of him, was certainly recognized as one of the best stay at home defensemen in the league between 1954 and 1960. He faced Jean Beliveau and Andy Bathgate 14 times a year for basically his entire career, and was seen as one of the best defensive defensemen in the NHL. Why's it different now? In addition, he's playing next to one of the best, most fluid skating defensemen in recent hockey history. I'm not concerned.

Quote:
I agree you have the advantage at the top end, but is this really and advantage for Philly considering the pairings?

Park-Hitchman > Leetch-Kasatonov
Niedermayer-Armstrong < Beck-Stapleton
Hatcher-Davydov < Patrick-Mitchell

I think looking at pairings muddles the key advantage you claim to have.
I agree on the first two pairings, but I certainly don't see the gap between Patrick and Hatcher being larger than the gap between Mitchell and Davydov. Davydov's a #4, Mitchell is a #6. Patrick is a very good #4, Hatcher a decent one. My 3rd pairing is easily better.

Technically, my pairings should read:

Park-Hitchman
Niedermayer-Armstrong
Davydov-Hatcher

Just so the L-R positioning is correct. They are L-R for the bottom two pairings, but both guys on the top pairing are left handed. This is one thing Pittsburgh doesn't has on their roster that has typically been overlooked in the ATD. You are championing the puck-moving ability of your defensemen, yet every single one of them is left handed, meaning when they are skating towards their goal-line to retrieve the puck with a forechecker bearing in on them, one of them is going to be on their backhand for each pairing, and it's going to hurt the puck-moving ability that you are championing. This also hurts you on your power play when setting up one timers from the point(although you've partially addressed this by putting Bathgate on the right point on your first PP, it still applies to your 2nd PP).

Edit: I agree, coaching is in Pittsburgh's favor. One of these drafts I'll actually pay attention to coaching, but I just haven't convinced myself that it really plays a big factor in how people vote.

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04-28-2013, 11:41 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bring Back Scuderi View Post
Berenson led his club in scoring twice and 6 times in the top 3. He put up points against 06 Clubs too, here's what I found using HSP.
1968: 16 GP, 5G, 9A, 14 PTS
1969: 36 GP, 14 G, 13 A, 27 PTS
1970: 36 GP, 13 G, 11 A, 24 PTS

You can argue his Hart is inflated by the division split, but he was still a bigger star in those seasons than anyone outside of Ratelle on our third lines.
Very interesting, and seems to contradict what I believed. What is this website, I've never heard of it and didn't know that these numbers were available. I'd like to utilize it myself because it provides important context to numbers.


Quote:
But what makes it better than Walter's? I agree he is, but if we're sticking to your methodology that you can only count what he did at the position, then Richards has no offense outside of 5 points in the Olympics, less than Berenson and Walter.
There is a slight difference, Richards hasn't really been used extensively at LW besides spot duty in LA, and the Olympics. Berenson played a decent amount at LW, and didn't do much with it. Looking at when that quote was from, I looked up Richards' numbers from those two games that are mentioned, he had 1 assist in the two games. Not much of a sample size to draw from, so I dug back into the LA Kings board and looked at their GDTs to see where they had Richards as a LW. He played LW for two more games after that, and didn't have any points. At the same time, the Kings only managed 6 goals over those 4 games, so the offense wasn't exactly clicking at the time. Then in the Olympics, he managed 5 points over 7 games on what was considered maybe Canada's most effective line. Perhaps even more importantly is the fact that that line held Ovechkin-Malkin-Semin to just one assist between the three of them in a 7-3 Canada win, showing Richards' defense can be very effective at LW.

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04-29-2013, 12:12 AM
  #40
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It's getting late here on the east coast, but I want to get these comparisons out there...

Special Teams

First PP:

Beliveau>Thornton
Morris<Ovechkin
Olmstead<Mullen(considering linemates and VsX bias that helps Olmstead)
Leetch>Park
Bathgate<Taylor

These are two extremely potent power plays. The biggest gap is between Beliveau and Thornton. Pittsburgh probably has a slight advantage, but it's not big. Both of these PPs will be very effective.

Second PP:

Schriner>Stevens
Colville<Ratelle
Larmer>Oatman
Patrick<Niedermayer
Stapleton>Hatcher

Pittsburgh has the advantage here due to the advantage at wing.

First PK:

Quote:
Going back from the assassination thread:

The PK forwards are pretty underwhelming and might be the team's biggest weakness along with goaltending. I see all of those guys are preferably second unit guys, with Berenson being passable next to a good partner. Using 40 games a cutoff point, here is how many times each guy was top 4 in PK TOI/G among forwards, and how many NHL seasons they had:

Larmer: 7 of 13 years(1, 2, 3, 1, 2, 2, 2)
Berenson: 10 of 11 years we have data(2, 3, 4, 3, 1, 3, 2, 2, 3, 1)
Walter: 8 of 13 years(3, 1, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2, 1)
Steen: 7 of 12 years(1, 3, 1, 3, 3, 1, 2)
In addition, Berenson(who you claim is your best penalty killer) was on a PK better than the average 5 times, and worse than the average 8 teams(the 13 stints he had with different clubs from 67-68 to the end of his career). Very unimpressive. Larmer's record is more impressive with 6 above and 1 below. Walter's is an unimpressive 3 above and 5 below. Steen is another unimpressive 2 above and 5 below. So, not only were these guys top 4 PKers for 54%, 91%, 62%, and 58% of their careers, their teams tended to have a fairly unimpressive penalty kill. I think Larmer is your best PKer to be honest, his PKs were good, and he was used heavily on them.

I'll take all four of Philadelphia's PKers over their Pittsburgh counterpart.

Goring>Berenson
Stewart>Larmer
Park>Kasatonov
Hitchman>Beck

First PK units are a very clear advantage to Philadelphia.

Trottier>Steen
Richards>Walter
Davydov<Leetch(his teams were above average 7 times, below 11 times)
Hatcher>Mitchell

Second PK units are an advantage to Philadelphia.

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04-29-2013, 12:26 AM
  #41
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Reasons Philadelphia should win this series

-Advantage in Goaltending(Fuhr is money in the playoffs)
-Advantage in #1 and #2 defensemen
-Advantage in 1st pairing, 3rd pairings
-Advantage in overall special teams play(Pittsburgh's power plays will be slightly more effective than Philadelphia's, but Philadelphia's penalty kill will be significantly more effective than Pittsburgh's)
-Advantage in 3rd and 4th lines
-Bert Olmstead, Andy Bathgate, and Sweeney Schriner's playoff resumes are very underwhelming compared to their ES offense
-Pittsburgh has stated multiple times they are going to thrive on puck possession and skating, but Philadelphia boasts a very good skating team as well
-Philadelphia has more physicality and toughness throughout their forward corps
-Pittsburgh has 6 left handed defensemen, which will hurt their breakouts and transition offense because of defensemen being forced to pass on their backhand for every pairing. Philadelphia's top pairing is L-L, but the bottom two pairings are L-R.

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04-29-2013, 12:30 AM
  #42
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I'm 95% sure that Brad Park usually played the right side, despite being a lefty. He definitely played right side in the video I saw of him playing in international games.

Kasatonov was also a lefty who usually played the right side.

After that, Pittsburgh seems to be assuming that because Stapleton and Patrick had good skills with the puck, that they should be fine on their off-side. For what it's worth, I'm pretty sure Stapleton played the left side in real life, at least he did when playing with Bill White, who was a rightie.

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04-29-2013, 01:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
The big time defensemen for the two eras(with where I think they stand in the ATD) were:

Fetisov(#1), Kasatonov(#2), Pervukhin(#6), Bilyatednov(#5), Konstantinov(#4 or bad #3), Gusarov(spare)

Ragulin(#3), Davydov(#4), Ivanov(#4), Kuzkin(#5)

Fetisov and Kasatonov were definitely better top-end talent for the two eras, but beyond that, are the other 1980s Soviet defensemen that much more impressive? It very well could be that we underrate them in the ATD and overrate the guys from the 1960s, but the way that they're used now, the top end talent was better in Fetisov/Kasatonov, but the rest doesn't seem all that much better. Sturm's analysis of defensemen in this draft fits with these rankings of where they belong as well.

His competition is listed above. Does Kasatonov's competition really seem that much better than Davydov's? The point of saying he won 9 gold medals was to show that the longevity of his career is much longer than Beck's, not that it's particularly impressive.
Kasatonov got to play in 3 Canada Cups and better competition internationally. I don't think the 60s Soviets who missed the Summit Series are really as proven. I don't see Ivanov and Davydov as #4s.

Quote:
Bob Armstrong isn't a great skater. I'm not sure why this is such a problem, the guy lasted 10+ years in the O6 NHL, and going by the votes and seeing who was ahead of him, was certainly recognized as one of the best stay at home defensemen in the league between 1954 and 1960. He faced Jean Beliveau and Andy Bathgate 14 times a year for basically his entire career, and was seen as one of the best defensive defensemen in the NHL. Why's it different now? In addition, he's playing next to one of the best, most fluid skating defensemen in recent hockey history. I'm not concerned.
His voting record is decent, but I see Beck's as sort of average for a #4. Armstrong's is unspectacular.

He'll still be effective cutting down scoring chances, that's what his game was. It's just he's going to struggle with a team reliant on speed. My team is trying to wear defenses down rolling four lines and having someone who has trouble skating will make that easier.


Quote:
Just so the L-R positioning is correct. They are L-R for the bottom two pairings, but both guys on the top pairing are left handed. This is one thing Pittsburgh doesn't has on their roster that has typically been overlooked in the ATD. You are championing the puck-moving ability of your defensemen, yet every single one of them is left handed, meaning when they are skating towards their goal-line to retrieve the puck with a forechecker bearing in on them, one of them is going to be on their backhand for each pairing, and it's going to hurt the puck-moving ability that you are championing. This also hurts you on your power play when setting up one timers from the point(although you've partially addressed this by putting Bathgate on the right point on your first PP, it still applies to your 2nd PP).
Kasatonov played the right side throughout his career. He's not what we consider a puckmover and had no trouble with it. Stapleton didn't play the right side with White at his best years, but he did play some on the right. Patrick played when it was point and coverpoint where there weren't sides. I don't have idea if he had a side preference.

I don't understand your example though. Do you really expect my defensemen to be making a breakout pass with their back to its receiver? They can all skate and move the puck, I'm hoping they do more than just chip it up their side. Even if they're forced in that situation you describe, they're still on their forehand if they wish to pass behind the net or to their partner. I think dealing with those things is something you can expect from puckmovers or players who actually did it like Kasatonov so its manageable.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
Very interesting, and seems to contradict what I believed. What is this website, I've never heard of it and didn't know that these numbers were available. I'd like to utilize it myself because it provides important context to numbers.
It was the hockey summary project, HSP was me being lazy.

Quote:
There is a slight difference, Richards hasn't really been used extensively at LW besides spot duty in LA, and the Olympics. Berenson played a decent amount at LW, and didn't do much with it. Looking at when that quote was from, I looked up Richards' numbers from those two games that are mentioned, he had 1 assist in the two games. Not much of a sample size to draw from, so I dug back into the LA Kings board and looked at their GDTs to see where they had Richards as a LW. He played LW for two more games after that, and didn't have any points. At the same time, the Kings only managed 6 goals over those 4 games, so the offense wasn't exactly clicking at the time. Then in the Olympics, he managed 5 points over 7 games on what was considered maybe Canada's most effective line. Perhaps even more importantly is the fact that that line held Ovechkin-Malkin-Semin to just one assist between the three of them in a 7-3 Canada win, showing Richards' defense can be very effective at LW.
He led the Blues in scoring playing 55 of 74 games, how is that not doing much?

Your argument here is, since Richards only played a few odd shifts at LW with LA we can't assume he won't produce there. But since Berenson played there as a depth player and then leading his team with an unspectacular vsX score we can assume he won't produce there. Richards gets the credit for everything he did at center, but Berenson gets credit for none of it. Unless you think Richards will be a full-blown plug at left wing you're just not being consistent here. Walter and Berenson get the shaft, but Richards gets a pass for not playing the position as much they did.

--------------------------------
Agreed with your take on special teams. You've got me good on penalty killing units. My only quibble with the PP is comparing Mullen and Olmstead. I made a decision to put him on the top unit for his skillset instead of throwing Schriner and just stacking offense. No question Mullen's the better offensive player overall compared to Olmstead.

Olmstead's there to help with the puck retrieval. Beliveau will do his work around the net and letting Olmstead work the boards and have him to feed is what I wanted. Olmstead's as good as they come in battles for the puck and he was an excellent passer so he knows what do if he wins possession. I think this will make a more valuable PP unit then just throwing all of my best offensive players out there.

I found an article written by LLoyd Percival about Olmstead's passing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Montreal Gazette - 1/5/1961 (Lloyd Percival)
Bert Olmstead of the Toronto Maple Leafs is praised by [unreadable word] hockey experts for his great forechecking, his ability to go into a corner and dig the puck out. This makes Bert the kind of player any coach loves to have on his side. But if you watch Olmstead carefully you will suddenly begin to realize that he has other [unreadable word] equally well developed.

One of the skills Olmstead has developed to a high level is setting up a play. Perhaps because he is not a smooth skater Bert's ability to set up a teammate with a perfect pass, to make the move that creates a good offensive situation, is inclined to be overlooked. But the young player, anxious to learn how to set up a play, can do no better than watch the Leaf left winger.
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...olmstead&hl=en
The article cuts off large parts, but that part is complete enough to follow. He goes on to talk about how Olmstead perfectly executes Trailer Plays, or drop passes, but so much of it is cut off you can't pull a quote.


Last edited by Rob Scuderi: 04-29-2013 at 01:44 AM.
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04-30-2013, 12:59 AM
  #44
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I have to say that this was the hardest of the Round 2 series for me to vote on. Good showing by both of you.

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04-30-2013, 10:49 AM
  #45
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Pittsburgh AC defeats Philadelphia in OT of game 7.

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04-30-2013, 12:31 PM
  #46
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You built a good team BBS. Good debate.

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04-30-2013, 08:53 PM
  #47
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Another great series Billy, thanks for the debates.

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