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In-season Proposals, Rumors, Free Agents & Roster Moves (related topics) XXXV

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Old
04-28-2013, 10:35 PM
  #726
ABasin
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Originally Posted by CobraAcesS View Post
And I disagree with that statement.
You are absolutely entitled to that opinion, and are equally entitled to keep repeating EJ's 1st pairing deity. However, I have yet to see the evidence on the ice supporting it, outside of a handful of games this season.


Last edited by ABasin: 04-28-2013 at 10:48 PM.
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Old
04-28-2013, 10:43 PM
  #727
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Not trying to highjack your conversation but I DO wonder how a guy like Weber would have performed on THIS Avs team under Sacco.

Would it have pissed him off to have seen Hunwick or Zanon get more playing time then him? Oh I know, you might say...c'mon now, Weber is an all-star, of course he would have been leading the Avs D in icetime and while I agree with that, Erik Johnson is WAAAAYYYYY better than any other D-man we have in our lineup and it's not really close.

It's a head scratcher the way he was used by Sacco.

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04-28-2013, 10:44 PM
  #728
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The evidence is there to see for anyone bothering to lift their eyes beyond the four points he scored this year. .
And that fact in and of itself is evidence in and of itself to anyone who is not a hardcore homer.

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In the 31 games he played with Avs this year, Avs outshot the opposition 31.5-30.2 per game on average. In the 17 games he didn't play Avs were outshot 25.7-33,4 on average.
Oh, God. Please not more advanced/Corsi stats in the face of defending poor performance of the best defender on arguably the worst defense in the NHL. Not more advanced stats instead of analysis of the actual hockey.

Proving good and/or poor hockey defense via stats is usually folly. You have to watch the games.

<snip the nonsense>

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Any analysis that's free from bias suggest he indeed is a top pairing guy.
Any analysis that's based in watching him play suggests he PLAYED otherwise this season.

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Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
Meanwhile, the eye reports by posters here reveal their bias when they tell us how terrible he is and giving D-F in season grades and continually bemoan how we lost the trade.
They're right, and we did.


Last edited by ABasin: 04-28-2013 at 10:55 PM.
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04-28-2013, 10:48 PM
  #729
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Do you think Mike Babcock would ever coach the Avs?

He has 2 years left on his deal which complicates things.

BUT he has praised our roster and skill many a times. I wonder if he'd ever be interested in seeing what he could do with our roster.

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04-28-2013, 10:52 PM
  #730
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They're right, and we did.
Duncan Siemens should at the very least, have the opportunity to play ONE NHL game before we make that kind of proclamation. He's an 11th overall pick, not some scrub throw-in afterthought.

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04-28-2013, 10:54 PM
  #731
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Duncan Siemens should at the very least, have the opportunity to play ONE NHL game before we make that kind of proclamation. He's an 11th overall pick, not some scrub throw-in afterthought.
You are correct. I have many times caveated with "current NHL players", but have become weary typing that.

I sure hope Duncan rocks it. Or EJ raises it big (and the guy has the effing skill to do it).

Because if not, it will go down as one of the most lopsided trades of the last decade.

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04-28-2013, 10:55 PM
  #732
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Oh, God. Please not more advanced/Corsi stats in the face of defending the best defender on arguably the worst defense in the NHL.

<snip the nonsense>

Any analysis that's based in watching him play suggests he PLAYED otherwise.

They're right, and we did.
You're hilarious. Even when confronted with proof of his impact you completely ignore it and go back to your biased views of how terrible he is.

After years of hearing peoples views on EJ, Stastny, Hunwick and so on it's clear that people see what they want to see on this forum.

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04-28-2013, 11:03 PM
  #733
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You're hilarious. .
Do you come to that conclusion by reading my posts, or did you check my Corsi stats?

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Even when confronted with proof of his impact you completely ignore it and go back to your biased views of how terrible he is..
You provided numbers, not proof.

Dude, EJ (aside from a dozen or so games early in the season) simply wasn't very good. Are you seriously telling me that you saw stellar defense from the guy in March and April? Seriously? He wasn't awful, but he wasn't terribly good either. He was average, or just above that. His offense was putrid all year long. He was outscored - by 50% - by Greg frickin Zanon, yet you want to pony up stats to me showing that he's a first pairing guy?!? LOL.

Does he have the skill of a 1st pairing guy? No doubt. Is he a 1st pairing guy on paper? No doubt. Did they give up assets in a trade worthy of a 1st pairing guy in return? No doubt.

But did he PLAY like a 1st pairing guy for 31 games this year? No way in hell.

Quote:
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After years of hearing peoples views on EJ, Stastny, Hunwick and so on it's clear that people see what they want to see on this forum.
Agreed. You're living proof of it.

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04-28-2013, 11:09 PM
  #734
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Originally Posted by ABasin View Post
Do you come to that conclusion by reading my posts, or did you check my Corsi stats?



You provided numbers, not proof.

Dude, EJ (aside from a dozen or so games early in the season) simply wasn't very good. Are you seriously telling me that you saw stellar defense from the guy in March and April? Seriously? He wasn't awful, but he wasn't terribly good either. He was average, or just above that. His offense was putrid all year long. He was outscored - by 50% - by Greg frickin Zanon, yet you want to pony up stats to me showing that he's a first pairing guy?!? LOL.

Does he have the skill of a 1st pairing guy? No doubt. Is he a 1st pairing guy on paper? No doubt. Did they give up assets in a trade worthy of a 1st pairing guy in return? No doubt.

But did he PLAY like a 1st pairing guy for 31 games this year? No way in hell.



Agreed. You're living proof of it.
So what is your explanation for the massive difference in shots when he was playing compared to when he wasn't playing?

Luck? Randomness? EJ having a pretty big impact on how Avs play?

Love how you hate stats, ignore stats and then choose to highlight that 6 points is 50% more than 4 points. If it's irony, it's pretty funny. If it's not, Jesus Christ.

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04-28-2013, 11:22 PM
  #735
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According to BehindTheNet.ca, Colorado's 5v5 SV% with Erik Johnson on the ice was 0.893, second worst amongst Avalanche defensemen (Stefan Elliott). The story was similar last year, as the team's 0.912 SV% with EJ on the ice was lowest amongst Avalanche defensemen.

To me, that stat seems more relevant than shots for/against with Johnson in/out of the line-up. Especially considering the Avalanche's record this year with EJ in the line-up was 9-19-3 vs. 7-6-4 when he was scratched.

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04-28-2013, 11:33 PM
  #736
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According to BehindTheNet.ca, Colorado's 5v5 SV% with Erik Johnson on the ice was 0.893, second worst amongst Avalanche defensemen (Stefan Elliott). The story was similar last year, as the team's 0.912 SV% with EJ on the ice was lowest amongst Avalanche defensemen.

To me, that stat seems more relevant than shots for/against with Johnson in/out of the line-up. Especially considering the Avalanche's record this year with EJ in the line-up was 9-19-3 vs. 7-6-4 when he was scratched.
On ice save percentage (both for and against) is all over the place from year to year. That should tell you all you need to know about it's usefulness. It's more or less a luck stat. Pretty much all it's used for is PDO, which is basically a way to measure how lucky or unlucky a player is.

That the teams record is better when massively outshot than when outshooting the opposition is more a reflection on how goaltending has been for us. Avs have a significantly better record without EJ, Landeskog and O'Reilly than with those three. Mostly due to Varlamov being hot early on and terrible later on.

Something like 3000 shots is more likely to be statistically significant as a representation of the play in games than the two things you prefer, both being massively affected by randomness.

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04-28-2013, 11:38 PM
  #737
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I don't even agree with AB on EJ, but I don't care anything about these stats determining what kind of defenseman EJ will be. There's just so much going on, from the makeup of the team, or never feeling comfortable after his concussion, or just a plethora of other things.

All I know is that I see a guy who is very good defensively, physical when needed, is mobile, has put up a lot of points in the NHL in the past, has shown flashes of that again, has had a poor coach, poor D partners, and had a concussion that he seemed to never really get back on track from this year just like Landy.

I'm not not gonna get on a soapbox and say he will for sure be a 40+ point all around dynamic defenseman, but I also don't think it's fair to try and peg him as a weak second pairing type guy, or whatever some might think. I don't even think most of his detractors peg him as anything, but rather that he hasn't been exactly what they hoped yet, and are afraid they're giving him excuses for the reason why he hasn't.

Give him a new coach, a legit D partner that can play at least a Hejda level of play, or better in terms of puck moving hopefully, and a clean bill of health and an off season to start fresh from this season, and evaluate him then. If he can be a really good #2 to a more offensive guy, than he'll be a big part of this team, and show why he was easier to build around then a more offensive guy that isn't as good defensively.

If he's still dissapointing and puts up a 20 point season or something, and just generally isn't getting it done while being healthy next year, then I'll be right there with y'all. But until then, this like the Sherman hate, and a few other things that are very emotionally based and shortsighted.

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04-28-2013, 11:52 PM
  #738
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EJ does face the toughest competition when he plays but also has the worst GA/on per 60 minutes and also the worst GA/off per 60 minutes (obviously interrelated). So it seems he doesn't do very well against that tough competition since we get scored on more with him out there than with anyone else, and scored on less (to varying degrees) when other guys are out there.

Quality of competition definitely plays a role in that however. For comparison, Shattenkirk and Russel, the Blues two most sheltered dmen, have the best GA/on per 60 (1.85 & 1.76 respectively) while Pietrangelo and Bouw have much worse numbers.

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04-29-2013, 12:18 AM
  #739
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EJ does face the toughest competition when he plays but also has the worst GA/on per 60 minutes and also the worst GA/off per 60 minutes (obviously interrelated). So it seems he doesn't do very well against that tough competition since we get scored on more with him out there than with anyone else, and scored on less (to varying degrees) when other guys are out there.

Quality of competition definitely plays a role in that however. For comparison, Shattenkirk and Russel, the Blues two most sheltered dmen, have the best GA/on per 60 (1.85 & 1.76 respectively) while Pietrangelo and Bouw have much worse numbers.
GA/60 has a lot to do with on-ice save percentage, but also toughness of opposition and of course how well you play. If anything the natural conclusion would be that our goalies doesn't do well against the toughest competition.

If people hate +/- because of the randomness, they can't put a lot of stock in on ice shooting/saves or GF/60 and GA/60 since they obviously are the mechanics behind +/-.

Over a very large sample I think these things matter and could be an indication of how well a player plays, but in the short run it's massively affected by luck (goalie luck, shooting luck).

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04-29-2013, 08:48 AM
  #740
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So what is your explanation for the massive difference in shots when he was playing compared to when he wasn't playing?

Luck? Randomness? EJ having a pretty big impact on how Avs play?

Love how you hate stats, ignore stats and then choose to highlight that 6 points is 50% more than 4 points. If it's irony, it's pretty funny. If it's not, Jesus Christ.
I believe that trying to use statistics to define an individual player's defensive play is very extremely difficult. Actually, there are so many real-time variables, I pretty much believe it's close to impossible. Thus, my picking which stats are relevant in our discussions. Team defensive play is another matter, re: using stats.

However, I do find it amusing that you give me the "Jesus Christ", then do exactly the same thing I did in regards to these advanced stats. Attend:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
If people hate +/- because of the randomness, they can't put a lot of stock in on ice shooting/saves or GF/60 and GA/60 since they obviously are the mechanics behind +/-.

Over a very large sample I think these things matter and could be an indication of how well a player plays, but in the short run it's massively affected by luck (goalie luck, shooting luck).
Not so very different than what I did, is it? Someone cited stats, you caveated the stat and their conclusion. You just value different stats than I do. We just believe different stats have different relevance.

To be clear, while I've given you a bit of crap for leaning so heavily on advanced stats, in truth I don't have a problem with all of them. Mostly just the ones that lead people to sweeping conclusions about individual defensive play.

Time to lower the temperature of this discussion though. I strongly disagree with your use of stats in the context of individual defensive play, but I respect your opinions on many other topics, so don't want to take this too much farther.


Last edited by ABasin: 04-29-2013 at 09:24 AM.
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04-29-2013, 08:56 AM
  #741
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I don't even agree with AB on EJ, but I don't care anything about these stats determining what kind of defenseman EJ will be. There's just so much going on, from the makeup of the team, or never feeling comfortable after his concussion, or just a plethora of other things.

All I know is that I see a guy who is very good defensively, physical when needed, is mobile, has put up a lot of points in the NHL in the past, has shown flashes of that again, has had a poor coach, poor D partners, and had a concussion that he seemed to never really get back on track from this year just like Landy.

I'm not not gonna get on a soapbox and say he will for sure be a 40+ point all around dynamic defenseman, but I also don't think it's fair to try and peg him as a weak second pairing type guy, or whatever some might think. I don't even think most of his detractors peg him as anything, but rather that he hasn't been exactly what they hoped yet, and are afraid they're giving him excuses for the reason why he hasn't.

Give him a new coach, a legit D partner that can play at least a Hejda level of play, or better in terms of puck moving hopefully, and a clean bill of health and an off season to start fresh from this season, and evaluate him then. If he can be a really good #2 to a more offensive guy, than he'll be a big part of this team, and show why he was easier to build around then a more offensive guy that isn't as good defensively.

If he's still dissapointing and puts up a 20 point season or something, and just generally isn't getting it done while being healthy next year, then I'll be right there with y'all.
This is fair. I believe I was the one (or one of the ones) who originally raised the EJ flag earlier this year, and that was wholly due to his play. I have no axe to grind with EJ, acknowledge the wealth of skill and talent he has, wish the best for him and the team, and honestly - if he doesn't up his play, this rebuild is going to take a pretty darn big hit. There's no one else to do it (1st pairing D).

I hope like hell a lot of you guys were correct, in that Sacco is to blame for a lot of EJ's play this season. I'm hoping we see a Duchene-like self remake, and the dude comes out and kills it next season.

But enough of this. To the likely enjoyment of the group, I'll now go on a self-imposed "EJ's 2013 play" discussion hiatus, assume he's going to reach his expected 1st pairing form with a new coach, and discuss the roster moving forward in that context.

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04-29-2013, 09:08 AM
  #742
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Do you think Mike Babcock would ever coach the Avs?

He has 2 years left on his deal which complicates things.

BUT he has praised our roster and skill many a times. I wonder if he'd ever be interested in seeing what he could do with our roster.
There are rumors that he would be going for University of Michigan next. U of Michigan coach is now Red Berenson that has also 2 yrs left on his deal. This was speculated by Dreger last week.

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04-29-2013, 09:33 AM
  #743
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Originally Posted by Foppa2118 View Post
I don't even agree with AB on EJ, but I don't care anything about these stats determining what kind of defenseman EJ will be. There's just so much going on, from the makeup of the team, or never feeling comfortable after his concussion, or just a plethora of other things.

All I know is that I see a guy who is very good defensively, physical when needed, is mobile, has put up a lot of points in the NHL in the past, has shown flashes of that again, has had a poor coach, poor D partners, and had a concussion that he seemed to never really get back on track from this year just like Landy.

I'm not not gonna get on a soapbox and say he will for sure be a 40+ point all around dynamic defenseman, but I also don't think it's fair to try and peg him as a weak second pairing type guy, or whatever some might think. I don't even think most of his detractors peg him as anything, but rather that he hasn't been exactly what they hoped yet, and are afraid they're giving him excuses for the reason why he hasn't.

Give him a new coach, a legit D partner that can play at least a Hejda level of play, or better in terms of puck moving hopefully, and a clean bill of health and an off season to start fresh from this season, and evaluate him then. If he can be a really good #2 to a more offensive guy, than he'll be a big part of this team, and show why he was easier to build around then a more offensive guy that isn't as good defensively.

If he's still dissapointing and puts up a 20 point season or something, and just generally isn't getting it done while being healthy next year, then I'll be right there with y'all. But until then, this like the Sherman hate, and a few other things that are very emotionally based and shortsighted.
Great post, this is exactly how I feel as well.

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04-29-2013, 09:35 AM
  #744
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I believe that trying to use statistics to define an individual player's defensive play is very extremely difficult. Actually, there are so many real-time variables, I pretty much believe it's close to impossible. Thus, my picking which stats are relevant in our discussions. Team defensive play is another matter, re: using stats.

However, I do find it amusing that you give me the "Jesus Christ", then do exactly the same thing I did in regards to these advanced stats. Attend:
Shots is one of the best indicators of how well a team plays because it's more or less not dependent on luck. A team that outshoots the opposition plays better than a team that does get outshot. Not over a single game of course, but the larger the sample is the more reliable it is as a representation of how a team plays.

Of course EJ isn't the only explanation that Avs shoot more and allow less shots when he is playing. But he does draw the toughest opposition and outshoots the opposition. This means other defenders get easier matchups and they can then in turn outshoot the opposition/avoid being outshot. Landeskog and O'Reilly are guys that also helps the team outshooting the opposition so they also deserves credit like EJ does.

Quote:
Not so very different than what I did, is it? You just cited different stats than I did. We just believe different stats have different relevance.

To be clear, while I've given you a bit of crap for leaning so heavily on advanced stats, in truth I don't have a problem with all of them. Mostly just the ones that lead people to sweeping conclusions about individual defensive play.
Completely different to what you did. I explained why stats without a lot of randomness (shots) are better than stats with a lot of randomness to describe what is happening on the ice.

The teams record with or without players isn't representative of a players contribution.

With EJ: 9-19-3
Without EJ: 7-6-4
With Landeskog: 11-20-6
Without Landeskog: 5-5-1
With O'Reilly: 8-17-4
Without O'Reilly: 8-8-3

These with/without streaks obviously overlap so we have a situation where the team does well without these players and much worse with these players. It makes even less sense when it's already been shown that Avs got massive outshot during the winning streak and outshot the opposition during the losing streak.

Which brings us to goaltending. Goaltenders playing well and getting saves they shouldn't gives you wins when outplayed and letting in goals they shouldn't give you losses when you outplay the opposition.

Varly had a save percentage of 91.4% first half of the season (when EJ, Landeskog and O'Reilly didn't play) and a save percentage of 88.4% the second half of the season (when EJ, Landeskog and O'Reilly played). Suddenly it's not that strange that the team loses when outshooting the opposition and winning when outshot, is it? The players in the first half get good GA/60. They get good on ice save percentage. The players in the second half get much worse on ice save percentage and GA/60. Most of it is due to how well the goaltender plays and not that the skaters suddenly allow much worse scoring chances for the other team.

Shots is one of the least random stats in the game. You don't shoot out of luck. Goals and saves have a bigger random effects. McGinn hitting 8 posts in his first ten games was him getting unlucky and he wouldn't have been more skilled in any significant way should five of them gone in. At the same time the opposing goalie wouldn't have played significantly worse had those gone in or the defenders in front of the goalie played worse. There really is such a thing as shooters luck and goalies luck that have a huge impact on results in the short run and that's why they aren't suited for stat analysis.

I realize that when showered in advanced stats it's easy to just grab one and think it has great explanatory power. Most of them doesn't. It's either a stat being affected by luck and randomness or it's an event that happens so rarely that it's not reliable over a season. Most of the stats on behindthenet are more or less useless for providing any insight.

There are a few stats that we get a critical mass of that is large and aren't all that random. They are very useful to help us describe what is happening.

Zone starts is a fantastic stat. It tells us how coaches use a player, especially in combination with Quality of Competition (which isn't a a great stat in itself, only when used with other stats to add context).

Zone finishes is a fantastic start. It's an event that happens so often (around 1500 times a season) that signifies how a player is doing possession wise. Most of the random stuff that have a big impact in the short run isn't a factor in the long run. If you finish in the offensive zone more often than the defensive zone over a season, that's a sign that you're doing well. For example all of us intuitively know that Barrie has been a great contributor for Avs when it comes to transition, possession and creating offense. It's no surprise that his offensive zone finishes is much higher than his offensive zone starts. He affects the flow of the play in a positive direction for Avs.

Shots is the same. We get such a critical mass over over a season that it does have correlation with how well a team is playing. Avs outshooting the opposition is much better for Avs than the opposition outshooting Avs.

Those three stats are pretty much all I care about from the advanced stats. Actually none of them is an advanced stat. They're very straight forward. They have a higher reliability and explanatory power than many of the others because they are much less affected by randomness and luck. It's so easy to dive in and stat trawl, looking for stats that confirm what you want to be confirmed. But if you don't know which are junk stats and which ones are useful stats you end up wrong.


Last edited by Freudian: 04-29-2013 at 09:45 AM.
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04-29-2013, 01:15 PM
  #745
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Vanek and Miller want out of Buffalo...
Who Col could trade for them...

Statsny,Jones and Varlamov...

That possible?

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04-29-2013, 01:18 PM
  #746
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Vanek and Miller want out of Buffalo...
Who Col could trade for them...

Statsny,Jones and Varlamov...

That possible?
Buffalo will want to rebuild. The only piece they might want there is Varly, and I don't see that with them having Enroth and Hackett.

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04-29-2013, 01:51 PM
  #747
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Vanek and Miller want out of Buffalo...
Who Col could trade for them...

Statsny,Jones and Varlamov...

That possible?
Wouldn't do this myself.


I don't get all the love for Vanek anyways. Obviously I would like to have him on the Avs, I just don't see him being worth a whole lot given that he wants out of BUF and is a UFA in a year.


On the main boards, they seemed to be wanting 2 1sts + Top prospect + roster player. That's ridiculous IMO. I wouldn't pay more then a 1st + B Prospect + 2nd/Bottom 6 forward/Dman.

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04-29-2013, 02:17 PM
  #748
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Originally Posted by Pierce Hawthorne View Post
Wouldn't do this myself.


I don't get all the love for Vanek anyways. Obviously I would like to have him on the Avs, I just don't see him being worth a whole lot given that he wants out of BUF and is a UFA in a year.


On the main boards, they seemed to be wanting 2 1sts + Top prospect + roster player. That's ridiculous IMO. I wouldn't pay more then a 1st + B Prospect + 2nd/Bottom 6 forward/Dman.
That's ridiculous. IMO too. Vanek is great but not THAT great.

I think something like the Pominville deal is fair in value. Bc the bidding will drive up Vanek's price.

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04-29-2013, 02:28 PM
  #749
RobinDIF
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For Vanek? Good player but he is 29 years old and is a pending UFA on a ****** contract. Get real.

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04-29-2013, 02:54 PM
  #750
Pierce Hawthorne
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RobinDIF View Post
For Vanek? Good player but he is 29 years old and is a pending UFA on a ****** contract. Get real.
Exactly. Im pretty much fighting a battle on my own in the Vanek thread on the main forums, but the asking price from some of them is just ridiculous.

First the one guy proposed 2013 1st + 2014 1st + Top prospect + decent roster player.

All for 1 year of Vanek.

THEN, he proposed this to a Nashville fan:

Vanek + 2013 1st(Minnys, so 15-20) + McNabb for NSH 1st(Top 5 guaranteed) + Josi + another decent forward + 2nd.


I mean if I were a Nashville fan I wouldn't even be giving up Josi for 1 year of Vanek. I would say Josi + 2nd could be fair value, but give Josi's potential and age I wouldn't move him at all.

Pretty outrageous what they are asking for a guy who is a UFA in a year, a Top 5 paid forward in the game(Yet not even a top 10 producer) and a guy who more or less wants out of Buffalo at this stage.

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