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Head to Head Possession Data - Playoff Matchups

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04-29-2013, 11:51 AM
  #1
SaskRinkRat
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Head to Head Possession Data - Playoff Matchups

Hey everyone,

I got a little curious last night and did a bit of analysis of this year's playoff matchups. See the .jpeg attached. I'm still fairly new to doing this sort of analysis, so if anyone has any feedback on any misinterpretations, I'd be happy to chat about that.

I included 5on5 Fenwick, 5on5 Corsi and SH/SV% data for all head to head games between the teams that are matched up. I also included the regular season 5on5 Fenwick and Corsi for each team to compare how their head to head data matches with their overall season performance.

A couple of things that really stick out for me:

1) The SH% in the Montreal / Ottawa games this year were ridiculously low. The Habs scored 3 5on5 goals against the Sens this year on 119 shots, for a 2.5 SH%, yet still won the season series 2-1-1. Ottawa SH% was low too.

2) LA dominated St. Louis in Fenwick / Corsi terms, but both teams had very high SH% (15.2% for LA, 11.1% for St. Louis).

Based on head to head Fenwick / Corsi (which obviously has to be taken with a grain of salt due to small sample size), I would say the Rangers and Kings both have pretty good "upset" potential. Both teams have pretty significant FF/CF differentials in the head to head AND the season overall.

Prior to doing this analysis, I thought SJ would look better vs. Vancouver, but the possession stats come out on Vancouver's side in the head to head, even though the teams are close overall.

Boston looks primed to beat up on Toronto, having produced 3 5on5 Fenwick events for every 2 produced by the Leafs in their head to head meetings. Boston is also one of the best overall possession teams in the league while Toronto is one of the worst.

Overall, if I'm betting based on this data...

Very likely winners: Boston, Chicago
Probable winners: Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, Rangers
Favourites: Montreal
Too close to call: Anaheim/Detroit, Vancouver/San Jose
Attached Images
File Type: jpg 2013 Playoff Possession Data.jpg‎ (147.5 KB, 47 views)

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04-29-2013, 12:12 PM
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PavelDatsyuk
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SaskRinkRat View Post
Hey everyone,

I got a little curious last night and did a bit of analysis of this year's playoff matchups. See the .jpeg attached. I'm still fairly new to doing this sort of analysis, so if anyone has any feedback on any misinterpretations, I'd be happy to chat about that.

I included 5on5 Fenwick, 5on5 Corsi and SH/SV% data for all head to head games between the teams that are matched up. I also included the regular season 5on5 Fenwick and Corsi for each team to compare how their head to head data matches with their overall season performance.

A couple of things that really stick out for me:

1) The SH% in the Montreal / Ottawa games this year were ridiculously low. The Habs scored 3 5on5 goals against the Sens this year on 119 shots, for a 2.5 SH%, yet still won the season series 2-1-1. Ottawa SH% was low too.

2) LA dominated St. Louis in Fenwick / Corsi terms, but both teams had very high SH% (15.2% for LA, 11.1% for St. Louis).

Based on head to head Fenwick / Corsi (which obviously has to be taken with a grain of salt due to small sample size), I would say the Rangers and Kings both have pretty good "upset" potential. Both teams have pretty significant FF/CF differentials in the head to head AND the season overall.

Prior to doing this analysis, I thought SJ would look better vs. Vancouver, but the possession stats come out on Vancouver's side in the head to head, even though the teams are close overall.

Boston looks primed to beat up on Toronto, having produced 3 5on5 Fenwick events for every 2 produced by the Leafs in their head to head meetings. Boston is also one of the best overall possession teams in the league while Toronto is one of the worst.

Overall, if I'm betting based on this data...

Very likely winners: Boston, Chicago
Probable winners: Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, Rangers
Favourites: Montreal
Too close to call: Anaheim/Detroit, Vancouver/San Jose
This is part of the reason Vegas has the Kings as slight favorites in their series as well as why a team like Detroit is not that big of a dog to Anaheim despite a 2-7 matchup and having one of the weakest teams in the playoffs (because Anaheim is also one of the weakest teams in the tournament)

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04-29-2013, 01:16 PM
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Sixbladeknife
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Nice work, interesting numbers.

I assume you used all 5on5 Corsi/Fenwick data, which is probably a good idea in a sample size as small as this. Just out of curiosity, do you have any idea how the numbers would look like if you used only score tied/close numbers?

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04-29-2013, 03:17 PM
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SaskRinkRat
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Yes, I used 5on5 data for Fenwick / Corsi. I pulled it off of timeonice.com last night. It's all 5on5 as opposed to tied/close. I'm not sure if you can refine timeonice.com to pull out just the tied/close numbers. If you can, I'd love to know how. Like I said, I'm just getting used to doing this sort of thing.

I can't really speculate on what might have happened if the focus was just tied / close data. Obviously it would have reduced the number of Fenwick/Corsi events as several of the season series had some blowouts involved.

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04-30-2013, 12:55 AM
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GimmeMyJetpack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SaskRinkRat View Post
Hey everyone,

I got a little curious last night and did a bit of analysis of this year's playoff matchups. See the .jpeg attached. I'm still fairly new to doing this sort of analysis, so if anyone has any feedback on any misinterpretations, I'd be happy to chat about that.

I included 5on5 Fenwick, 5on5 Corsi and SH/SV% data for all head to head games between the teams that are matched up. I also included the regular season 5on5 Fenwick and Corsi for each team to compare how their head to head data matches with their overall season performance.

A couple of things that really stick out for me:

1) The SH% in the Montreal / Ottawa games this year were ridiculously low. The Habs scored 3 5on5 goals against the Sens this year on 119 shots, for a 2.5 SH%, yet still won the season series 2-1-1. Ottawa SH% was low too.
Montreal did not win the series 2-1-1...The series was a dead tie. Each team had 1 regulation win and 1 Shootout win.

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04-30-2013, 04:57 PM
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Hammer Time
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Nice analysis.

Erik Karlsson's return would presumably do wonders for Ottawa's puck possession game. Also, Anderson has been very good in net for Ottawa. With that in mind I'd throw Ottawa/Montreal into the too-close-to-call category as well. For the other series your assessments look pretty reasonable.

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04-30-2013, 06:03 PM
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RewBicks
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This actually seems like it is probably bad news for San Jose given that Vancouver will be adding Kesler and Roy into the equation for the series, and neither have played against San Jose yet this year.

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