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Analyzing the Philadelphia Flyers' Young Defensemen

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Old
04-29-2013, 01:55 PM
  #26
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Originally Posted by FlyersFan61290 View Post
Gus and Gervais bring the same things to the table and i think Gus is clearly the better player. I also consider Gus and Gervais better players then Lauridsen at this point. I know that's not saying much.

do you really think Gervais would've performed as well as Gus with 24+ minutes consistently (the end the season that's what Gus was getting) and just over 20 minutes average for the season? i sure don't

Gus only looked bad this year when paired with Gervais and i think it's because he's a complimentary player like Carle and can't carry his own pairing (though he still looked good the final two games of the season with Lilja).
I'm not sold on Gus. A lot of people around here seem to think that he will be a top 4 guy. I have not seen anything that would suggest that. His ceiling may be a top 4 defender, but that doesn't mean he will reach that. Gervais is a solid bottom pairing guy. He has no upside. He is what he is. Gus right now is in the same boat. Lauridsen is probably a rung below at this point, and his ceiling is that of a 5/6/7 player. But if we are going in to next season and need a final roster player, I would take Gervais as the seventh defenseman.

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04-29-2013, 02:24 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
I touched upon this slightly on the new NCAA/Euro update article coming up (even though he's neither), but basically I think your theory about there being a lot of players in the organization with his skill set being somewhat correct.

Though I can't speak for the organization, there has got to be something to this. Lauridsen is a long-term project who is progressing nicely. The Flyers are likely going to try to hold onto him and develop him through the end of Grossmann's contract. At that point, he theoretically replaces Grossmann as the bottom pairing shut-down defenseman if all goes as planned (things rarely fall into place that perfectly for a front office as jittery and responsive as the Flyers' but that doesn't mean that they don't plan for patience; it just never ends up that way).

On top of that you have a physical two-way guy in Manning who, though being down this year, showed a lot of promise early. Bourdon also showed some great things, so they're going to wait and see if he can't rebound from concussion issues.

Then you have the real kicker that demonstrated to me that the Flyers weren't happy with Suellentrop's developmental pace: they drafted Willcox, Larsson, and Vasiliev in the last draft.

It also doesn't help him that Schenn, Coburn, and Grossmann are NHL players signed long-term at the position Suellentrop would hope to fill.

On top of that, he's been solid in his last year but not outstanding. We want outstanding CHL players, particularly older ones, because those are the ones with real NHL potential.

What's the point of throwing a contract Suellentrop's way at this point if you don't think there's a chance he could make the NHL. He'd have a ton of hurdles to jump.

That doesn't mean they won't go ahead and offer him a contract down the road, but I don't see it.
Thanks very much for the analysis! Much appreciated

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04-29-2013, 09:10 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
Gus is more of a lock for next year's team than Meszaros is at this point.
how do figure?

if mez is healthy he is a better player plus you have to play him so you can increase his trade value at the very least.

A healthy Mez playing in a contract year could give the Flyers nice production.

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04-30-2013, 12:51 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
I'm not sold on Gus. A lot of people around here seem to think that he will be a top 4 guy. I have not seen anything that would suggest that. His ceiling may be a top 4 defender, but that doesn't mean he will reach that. Gervais is a solid bottom pairing guy. He has no upside. He is what he is. Gus right now is in the same boat. Lauridsen is probably a rung below at this point, and his ceiling is that of a 5/6/7 player. But if we are going in to next season and need a final roster player, I would take Gervais as the seventh defenseman.
I am not sold on Gervais. He ****ing sucks.

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04-30-2013, 01:56 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by GoneFullHolmgren View Post
I am not sold on Gervais. He ****ing sucks.
Gervais is also at the point where he should be showing something if he's ever going to be anything. He isn't. Gus still has time and room to develop.

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04-30-2013, 03:04 AM
  #31
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Gus has sold me his last few games! Maybe not Top 4 yet but I think he has earned a place on the team next season.

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04-30-2013, 03:05 AM
  #32
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1. Gus: He is a Matt Carle light in my eyes. He can play a good outlet pass and is a solid playmaker and PP QB. He isnīt physical enough to play big minutes even strength but can play a lot of minutes playing PP and #4 D Minutes. Till now he is injured a lot. So if he canīt stay healthy he is more of a #5 Dman with PP Minutes. But when he can stay healthy and find his rythm and feel for the game he can be a very reliable player for this team! He played fantastic the last 10 games, so i donīt see him in the ahl next year. He will be our Nr.4 in my eyes!

2. Lauridsen: I know he is a bit slow and he hasnīt good mobility either. But he can be a Pronger light defensively. He donīt need to be our PMD. He donīt need to be a scorer. We need a solid bottom pairing stay at home defenseman who can play a lot of PK and defending against the top lines. If he learn to use his body and his stick like Pronger did it in his last years he can be a very good stay at home defenseman. In my book his ceiling is a #4 or #5 stay at home dman. Iīam not sure what would be better for his development. Staying a year in the AHL with big minutes or playing #6 minutes with PK Time in the NHL. Maybe he is one the guys who plays better in the nhl than in the AHL.

3. Manning: He is a solid all around player. He is somewhat physical and also a solid puck moving player. He has a bit of offensive upside. I would say he can be a good #5 or #6 Dman in the future. Give him time in the AHL to develop!

4. Bourdon: I see in him another solid all around player. But with his injury problems he is a big question for the next seasons. Same ceiling as Manning

5. Konan: He can be a fringe nhl dman. use him as a throw in like this year. He can be a good help for a few games. He plays better for his short stint than all the veteran signings by Homer.

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Alt, Gostisbehere and all the others:

I saw Gostisbehere at the world juniors and i was very impressed! I saw a good PMD and a solid defensive player. He can be develop in someone like Gus or maybe in someone like Matt Carle. His ceiling can be the Matt Carle we all want to see. A very good 2 way defenseman who dominate the blue line in the PP and be a playmaker out of his own end! But i donīt saw him against NHL players, so i donīt want to rate him now.

I havenīt seen any of the other prospects play, so i donīt make any prediction towards their ceiling.

just my two cents

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04-30-2013, 07:09 AM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoneFullHolmgren View Post
I am not sold on Gervais. He ****ing sucks.
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
Gervais is also at the point where he should be showing something if he's ever going to be anything. He isn't. Gus still has time and room to develop.
Gervais is a bttom pairing defender. A 6/7 guy. I don't know why people on here expect a 6/7 player to be anything more than a 6/7 player. That's what you get from your 6/7 guy. That is why these guys are 6/7 guys. He's not an all star. He isn't a standout player. Gervais should not get top four minutes. He should not be out there in key situations. But he's fine on the bottom pair. I also wouldn't give those minutes to Gus or Lauridsen at this point in their careers. Maybe one day, but not right now. If Gus is done in the AHL, then make him the last defenseman in the lineup and sit Gervais as #7. If Gus doesn't have to clear waivers I think he should play top pair minutes in the AHL. IIRC for a good part of last season he didn't even look very good at the AHL level. He has shown he can hang in the NHL, but that's about it.

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04-30-2013, 07:26 AM
  #34
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Gus is a lock. The last two weeks of the season he looked like a very viable second pairing defender if paired with a strong partner.

I'd easily slot him over mez at this point.

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04-30-2013, 07:28 AM
  #35
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
Gervais is a bttom pairing defender. A 6/7 guy. I don't know why people on here expect a 6/7 player to be anything more than a 6/7 player. That's what you get from your 6/7 guy. That is why these guys are 6/7 guys. He's not an all star. He isn't a standout player. Gervais should not get top four minutes. He should not be out there in key situations. But he's fine on the bottom pair. I also wouldn't give those minutes to Gus or Lauridsen at this point in their careers. Maybe one day, but not right now. If Gus is done in the AHL, then make him the last defenseman in the lineup and sit Gervais as #7. If Gus doesn't have to clear waivers I think he should play top pair minutes in the AHL. IIRC for a good part of last season he didn't even look very good at the AHL level. He has shown he can hang in the NHL, but that's about it.
Gervais is not fine as a bottom pairing guy. A good team needs a much better player slotted there.

Gervais is terrible.

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04-30-2013, 07:45 AM
  #36
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
Gervais is a bttom pairing defender. A 6/7 guy. I don't know why people on here expect a 6/7 player to be anything more than a 6/7 player. That's what you get from your 6/7 guy. That is why these guys are 6/7 guys. He's not an all star. He isn't a standout player. Gervais should not get top four minutes. He should not be out there in key situations. But he's fine on the bottom pair. I also wouldn't give those minutes to Gus or Lauridsen at this point in their careers. Maybe one day, but not right now. If Gus is done in the AHL, then make him the last defenseman in the lineup and sit Gervais as #7. If Gus doesn't have to clear waivers I think he should play top pair minutes in the AHL. IIRC for a good part of last season he didn't even look very good at the AHL level. He has shown he can hang in the NHL, but that's about it.
i think most people would agree that Gervais is a fine #7 it just seems that most people disagree with you on Gus. I see Gus as i see Carle (just not as good) which is a complimentary guy that is capable of logging 20 minutes a night with the right partner. If you pair him with grossmann, coburn or kimmo he'll be just fine imo playing quality minutes. the same can't be said for Gervais.

so i wouldn't go as far as saying that Gus is a top 4 but he's certainly capable of playing top 4 minutes with the right partner and in the future if he continues to improve (you can't say that he hasn't from this last yr to this yr) then who knows maybe he'll actually become a top 4 guy.

and i don't know where this he didn't even look good in the AHL stuff is coming from. when he was down there he was easily the team's best overall d-man. the only point at which he struggled was the first few game after returning from injury

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04-30-2013, 09:09 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by FlyersFan61290 View Post
i think most people would agree that Gervais is a fine #7 it just seems that most people disagree with you on Gus. I see Gus as i see Carle (just not as good) which is a complimentary guy that is capable of logging 20 minutes a night with the right partner. If you pair him with grossmann, coburn or kimmo he'll be just fine imo playing quality minutes. the same can't be said for Gervais.

so i wouldn't go as far as saying that Gus is a top 4 but he's certainly capable of playing top 4 minutes with the right partner and in the future if he continues to improve (you can't say that he hasn't from this last yr to this yr) then who knows maybe he'll actually become a top 4 guy.

and i don't know where this he didn't even look good in the AHL stuff is coming from. when he was down there he was easily the team's best overall d-man. the only point at which he struggled was the first few game after returning from injury
And that's fine. I think he could play top four minutes regularly sometime in the future and be able to hang. I don't see him excelling in that role, though it is certainly possible. You stick him as #4 (right now) and he will be a below average to average #4 defender. Put him on the bottom pair with whomever is back next season and I have no problem with it. Gervais can ride the pine and fill in as needed. Gus can take top four minutes from time to time when people get hurt and it wouldn't be a terrible situation. Essentially, I think Gus tops out in a best case scenario as an average #4 defender. I think in reality he would be a solid bottom pairing guy who can fill in from time to time on the second pair. If you see anything more than that in him I think you are dreaming.

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04-30-2013, 09:46 AM
  #38
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And that's fine. I think he could play top four minutes regularly sometime in the future and be able to hang. I don't see him excelling in that role, though it is certainly possible. You stick him as #4 (right now) and he will be a below average to average #4 defender. Put him on the bottom pair with whomever is back next season and I have no problem with it. Gervais can ride the pine and fill in as needed. Gus can take top four minutes from time to time when people get hurt and it wouldn't be a terrible situation. Essentially, I think Gus tops out in a best case scenario as an average #4 defender. I think in reality he would be a solid bottom pairing guy who can fill in from time to time on the second pair. If you see anything more than that in him I think you are dreaming.
I agree. I doubt anyone on here think he's got 1st pair potential or anything other then a solid #4 max

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04-30-2013, 09:53 AM
  #39
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Gervais is a bttom pairing defender. A 6/7 guy. I don't know why people on here expect a 6/7 player to be anything more than a 6/7 player. That's what you get from your 6/7 guy. That is why these guys are 6/7 guys. He's not an all star. He isn't a standout player. Gervais should not get top four minutes. He should not be out there in key situations. But he's fine on the bottom pair. I also wouldn't give those minutes to Gus or Lauridsen at this point in their careers. Maybe one day, but not right now. If Gus is done in the AHL, then make him the last defenseman in the lineup and sit Gervais as #7. If Gus doesn't have to clear waivers I think he should play top pair minutes in the AHL. IIRC for a good part of last season he didn't even look very good at the AHL level. He has shown he can hang in the NHL, but that's about it.
I agree that Gus will probably top out as a 5th or 6th guy but I don't know what you see in Gervais to make you think he's fine on the bottom pair. I think his performance compared to that of Gus and Lauridsen showed that he is clearly a sub replacement level guy. If this was baseball his WAR would be negative. He's terrible is what I'm trying to say. Even if Gus isn't a top 4 guy I would much rather he be getting those minutes just because he is already a better player than Gervais.

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04-30-2013, 10:29 AM
  #40
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I agree that Gus will probably top out as a 5th or 6th guy but I don't know what you see in Gervais to make you think he's fine on the bottom pair. I think his performance compared to that of Gus and Lauridsen showed that he is clearly a sub replacement level guy. If this was baseball his WAR would be negative. He's terrible is what I'm trying to say. Even if Gus isn't a top 4 guy I would much rather he be getting those minutes just because he is already a better player than Gervais.
Gervais is not terrible. He is a 6/7 defender. This is what 6/7 defenders look like. He is not a good player, which is why he is a 6/7 defender. But he can play on the bottom pair and not be completely lost. Yes, he makes mistakes and can be caught out of position. Just like Gus. But he hasn't been 100% across the board awful. I wasn't holding my breath every time he was on the ice. He is just like 90% of the rest of the league's #6/7. And Gus hasn't been 100% awful either. But he hasn't been 100% good. He has played, for the most part, on the same level as Gervais.

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04-30-2013, 11:54 AM
  #41
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
Gervais is also at the point where he should be showing something if he's ever going to be anything. He isn't. Gus still has time and room to develop.
exactly. people here wanted to base Gus on a 40 game stint. The guy had not been given a fair shake until all the injuries happened. if those injuries didnt happen then they would of continued to roll out slugs like Gervais and Foster.
Hopefully all the injuries did show management one thing. That some of these kids can play at the NHL level and should at least be consitered before wasting a contract spot on crap like Gervais and Foster.

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04-30-2013, 12:04 PM
  #42
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The Gus Carle comparison is overblown. He can shoot and his ceiling is less determined. If he continues on his current uptick he will be superior to Carle. Carle light? Ugh. He may end up more complete. Still speculative. More video exists of him now for other teams.

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04-30-2013, 12:16 PM
  #43
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Gervais is not terrible. He is a 6/7 defender. This is what 6/7 defenders look like. He is not a good player, which is why he is a 6/7 defender. But he can play on the bottom pair and not be completely lost. Yes, he makes mistakes and can be caught out of position. Just like Gus. But he hasn't been 100% across the board awful. I wasn't holding my breath every time he was on the ice. He is just like 90% of the rest of the league's #6/7. And Gus hasn't been 100% awful either. But he hasn't been 100% good. He has played, for the most part, on the same level as Gervais.
not at all. i realize everyone is entitled to their own opinion but i think most would agree with me that for the most part Gus has looked like a competent everyday defenseman whereas Gervais hasn't. i say for the most part because Gervais looked good early in the season (for about 8-10 games) then went down hill bad whereas Gus only had about 5 or 6 bad games the entire season.

i think it's evident that the coaching staffs agrees seeing as though Gus had more pp toi/g, more sh toi/g and more es toi/g even before gervais got injured. not to mention other stats like points and plus minus (which i realize is a terrible stat but when one guy is minus one on the season and the other is minus seventeen, i think it says something). just my opinion

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04-30-2013, 12:19 PM
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The Gus Carle comparison is overblown. He can shoot and his ceiling is less determined. If he continues on his current uptick he will be superior to Carle. Carle light? Ugh. He may end up more complete. Still speculative. More video exists of him now for other teams.
i compare Gus to Carle in that he's capable of logging top 4 minutes but not capable of carrying a pairing (in other words that he's a complimentary defenseman). Gus has a much harder and better shot then Carle but isn't quite as good a passer at this point. I think Gus is more of an extra extra light Kimmo. i realize that's a tall order but their games are very similar and Gus even said himself that he's learning a ton from him so it doesn't surprise me that his game mirrors Kimmo's.


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04-30-2013, 12:23 PM
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Gervais is not terrible. He is a 6/7 defender. This is what 6/7 defenders look like. He is not a good player, which is why he is a 6/7 defender. But he can play on the bottom pair and not be completely lost. Yes, he makes mistakes and can be caught out of position. Just like Gus. But he hasn't been 100% across the board awful. I wasn't holding my breath every time he was on the ice. He is just like 90% of the rest of the league's #6/7. And Gus hasn't been 100% awful either. But he hasn't been 100% good. He has played, for the most part, on the same level as Gervais.
Flyers bottom pairing defenders have gotten a lot of flak over the years outside of the one Meszaros-ODonnell season, but Gervais is down there with the lowest of them. I guess you have steelier nerves than I do because I definitely was holding my breath every time he was on the ice, and all too often I would exhale in a depressed sigh as Gervais panic-shot a clearing attempt at a charging forechecker's shin pads starting a sequence that ended with the puck in the net. There are 6/7 d-men and then there are guys that shouldn't be in the league, Gervais strikes me as the latter.

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04-30-2013, 12:40 PM
  #46
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Yea, don't know how one can say Gus has played "as good" as Gervias. Everything from watching him play to advanced stats showed how much better he played. I already threw out the advanced stats before but from Corsi to QOC to QOT Gus was top 3 on the team. Unless one says 15 games he was just on a hot streak....which is one long hot streak.

Gervias is an average #6. He is more suited for the 7 role who fills in every now and then. Gus should EASILY playing over him. Don't know how thats a conversation really.

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04-30-2013, 12:48 PM
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Gervais is a bttom pairing defender. A 6/7 guy. I don't know why people on here expect a 6/7 player to be anything more than a 6/7 player. That's what you get from your 6/7 guy. That is why these guys are 6/7 guys. He's not an all star. He isn't a standout player. Gervais should not get top four minutes. He should not be out there in key situations. But he's fine on the bottom pair. I also wouldn't give those minutes to Gus or Lauridsen at this point in their careers. Maybe one day, but not right now. If Gus is done in the AHL, then make him the last defenseman in the lineup and sit Gervais as #7. If Gus doesn't have to clear waivers I think he should play top pair minutes in the AHL. IIRC for a good part of last season he didn't even look very good at the AHL level. He has shown he can hang in the NHL, but that's about it.
Yeah, but Gus has been better and still has room to improve. So why go with Gervais instead of Gus? Gervais has been awful. I can think of no reason at all to play Gervais over Gus from this point on.

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04-30-2013, 02:09 PM
  #48
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Flyers bottom pairing defenders have gotten a lot of flak over the years outside of the one Meszaros-ODonnell season, but Gervais is down there with the lowest of them. I guess you have steelier nerves than I do because I definitely was holding my breath every time he was on the ice, and all too often I would exhale in a depressed sigh as Gervais panic-shot a clearing attempt at a charging forechecker's shin pads starting a sequence that ended with the puck in the net. There are 6/7 d-men and then there are guys that shouldn't be in the league, Gervais strikes me as the latter.
Gervais is definitely a 6/7 defenseman. Look around the league and for the most part, you will see guys of roughly the same skill level. Some a little better, some a little worse.

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Originally Posted by sa cyred View Post
Yea, don't know how one can say Gus has played "as good" as Gervias. Everything from watching him play to advanced stats showed how much better he played. I already threw out the advanced stats before but from Corsi to QOC to QOT Gus was top 3 on the team. Unless one says 15 games he was just on a hot streak....which is one long hot streak.

Gervias is an average #6. He is more suited for the 7 role who fills in every now and then. Gus should EASILY playing over him. Don't know how thats a conversation really.
I didn't see these stats but stats don't tell the entire story, even advanced stats.

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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
Yeah, but Gus has been better and still has room to improve. So why go with Gervais instead of Gus? Gervais has been awful. I can think of no reason at all to play Gervais over Gus from this point on.
To begin with, I don't think Gus has been better. I don't think he has been worse either. And like I said, if Gus can't go up and down between the AHL anymore, then start him over Gervais.

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04-30-2013, 02:22 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
Gervais is definitely a 6/7 defenseman. Look around the league and for the most part, you will see guys of roughly the same skill level. Some a little better, some a little worse.



I didn't see these stats but stats don't tell the entire story, even advanced stats.



To begin with, I don't think Gus has been better. I don't think he has been worse either. And like I said, if Gus can't go up and down between the AHL anymore, then start him over Gervais.
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...2+53+54+55+56#

There ya go. Pretty interesting stuff. If you want to ignore advanced stats that is fine. How do you want to compare him then? I have no problem with opinions but most if not all agree on here (and other forums I am on) agree that Gustafsson has been better.

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04-30-2013, 02:25 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyersFan61290 View Post
i compare Gus to Carle in that he's capable of logging top 4 minutes but not capable of carrying a pairing (in other words that he's a complimentary defenseman). Gus has a much harder and better shot then Carle but isn't quite as good a passer at this point. I think Gus is more of an extra extra light Kimmo. i realize that's a tall order but their games are very similar and Gus even said himself that he's learning a ton from him so it doesn't surprise me that his game mirrors Kimmo's.
This is definitely closer to the truth.

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