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Professionals' picks to win first round series [Surprisingly accurate]

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Old
04-30-2013, 02:49 PM
  #26
puckyeah
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Originally Posted by Chris43 View Post
I see a lot of "experts" picking Detroit on name value alone.


It would be a huge upset if Detroit won that series, maybe as big as NYI beating Pitt. Maybe these "experts" dont really watch the games.

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04-30-2013, 02:52 PM
  #27
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Last season, not a single pundit picked the Caps to beat the Bruins.

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04-30-2013, 03:06 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by wickedwitch View Post
Last season, not a single pundit picked the Caps to beat the Bruins.
This is interesting, as this year, I've seen next to ZERO pundits picking a sweep in the first round (feel free to reduce this percentage slightly).

Is this a normal thing in the playoffs? I can't remember a time when they didn't predict at least one sweep in the opening rounds.

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04-30-2013, 05:36 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Killemdeader View Post
I don't get why the Sharks and Wings are favored, and the Sens are even. I understand that the Ducks and Montreal didn't go out strong, but even so the mismatch in depth is colossal between Ducks/Montreal and Sens/Wings.

And I don't know where the Sharks are better than the Canucks anywhere. The Canucks have better forward depth, better defensive depth and goaltending is a wash at best. And the Sharks don't have home ice, got a large percentage of their points in the shootout, and were pretty bad on the road. Doesn't make sense to me.
Advanced stats gurus have been touting all season that the ducks are getting luckier than their play suggests and are due for a regression to the mean.

Might happen, might not, but not unfair to predict that they arent as good as their record.

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04-30-2013, 05:41 PM
  #30
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Larry Brooks is smoking some powerful stuff. Even as a fan I was shocked to his predictions.

He not only calls for the Sens to beat the Habs, but also the Pens and the Rangers on route to the Stanley Cup Finals where they fall to the Hawks.

Crazy stuff. Obviously hoping he saw some sort of vision from the hockey gods and is accurate.

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04-30-2013, 05:48 PM
  #31
Henrik To Daniel
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Who the **** are these guys?

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04-30-2013, 05:56 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by puckyeah View Post


It would be a huge upset if Detroit won that series, maybe as big as NYI beating Pitt. Maybe these "experts" dont really watch the games.
Whhaaattt? On the upset scale...

NYI beating Pitt >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Detriot beating Anaheim

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Old
04-30-2013, 06:31 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MardocAgain View Post
Advanced stats gurus have been touting all season that the ducks are getting luckier than their play suggests and are due for a regression to the mean.

Might happen, might not, but not unfair to predict that they arent as good as their record.
Do advanced stats take into account history? Do they take into account a sniper vs a goalie that sits deep in the net?

No one picked the Caps vs the Bruins then the analysts turned around and decided Caps were going to take the East and then they lose Game 7.

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Old
04-30-2013, 06:42 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by hankdank View Post
Would be interested to see picks including guys like Ferraro, Dreger, MacKenzie, Ward, Friedmen, Duthie, Kypreos, McGuire etc., just because I know their tendencies and biases.
Same, did TSN make picks this year? i missed the preview show and I cant find any predictions on the website

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04-30-2013, 06:43 PM
  #35
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Kings and Sharks surprised me the most.

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04-30-2013, 06:49 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Henrik To Daniel View Post
Who the **** are these guys?
Besides Cox, they're NHL.com's staff mostly

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04-30-2013, 06:52 PM
  #37
Kirk Mclean
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Scratched my head until I realized who was making the picks.

NHL network and American pundits have always been clueless when it comes to the Canucks. Especially Hradek, his opinions on Canadian teams are absolutely laughable, he actually sounds like he has no idea what he's talking about.

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04-30-2013, 07:04 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris43 View Post
I see a lot of "experts" picking Detroit on name value alone.
Detroit won their season series against the Ducks; so there is obviously more to this match up than just a name.

Please do provide us with any quote or piece of media that has any of these "Experts" mentioning they made their choice based on Detroit's name.

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04-30-2013, 07:16 PM
  #39
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even? I'll take it.

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Old
04-30-2013, 09:17 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by Kcoyote3 View Post
Interesting that the Sharks are predicted more than the Nucks. I wouldn't have guessed.
Only 2 more. Tells you the series is so close on paper you may as well flip a coin.

Quote:
Originally Posted by YogiCanucks View Post
wait... Damien Cox didn't pick the Caucks?! Sir I am shocked. SHOCKED.
Yeah, me too. Usually he's front and centre waving his pom-poms in his cheerleader outfit and blond wig with the pigtails, but something's obviously horribly wrong this time. He must have lost a bet or something.

And experts, professionals, whatever. They're just guessing like the rest of us.

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Old
04-30-2013, 09:22 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by Killemdeader View Post
I don't get why the Sharks and Wings are favored, and the Sens are even. I understand that the Ducks and Montreal didn't go out strong, but even so the mismatch in depth is colossal between Ducks/Montreal and Sens/Wings.

And I don't know where the Sharks are better than the Canucks anywhere. The Canucks have better forward depth, better defensive depth and goaltending is a wash at best. And the Sharks don't have home ice, got a large percentage of their points in the shootout, and were pretty bad on the road. Doesn't make sense to me.
Sharks have Galiardi-Thornton-Burns, Marleau-Couture-Havlat, Torres-Pavelski-Wingels, Desjardins-Gomez-Burish.
Canucks have Sedin-Sedin-Burrows, Higgins-Kesler-Kassian, Raymond-Roy-Hansen, Ebbett-Lapierre-Weise.

Vancouver has the better 1st line no doubt, but SJ 2nd line looks slightly better, 3rd and 4th lines look fairly even. Overall probably small edge for Vancouver.

Sharks have Vlasic-Braun, Boyle-Irwin, Stuart-Hannan.
Canucks have Hamhuis-Garrison, Edler-Bieksa, Alberts-Corrado.

The top shutdown pairing for Vancouver is better. 2nd pairings are about equal offensively, but Boyle/Irwin has the defensive edge. 3rd pairings both look sketchy, SJ slightly better as Stuart is the best out of those 4 D-men. Overall defence is fairly even.

Goalie: Niemi vs Schneider/Luongo

Pretty even there, although Schneider may be injured. If so, Niemi has been a little better than Luongo this season.

Special teams:
SJ: 7th PP, 6th PK
VAN: 22nd PP, 8th PK

VAN-SJ looks like a pretty even matchup to me that could go either way.

In the Ducks/Wings matchup 2nd half records are:
Anaheim 12-9-3
Detroit 12-8-4

I think there's a perception that Anaheim was playing over their heads in the 1st half and they're actually not that good, making ANA/DET a fairly even matchup. The Wings were 4-0-0 in the last week of the season with 3 blowout wins, so maybe they're expecting some of that to carry over into the playoffs.

Also, Babcock managed to pull an upset in the 2003 series featuring these same teams, in a series where Detroit was on paper, much more powerful than this year's Ducks, so maybe there's an expectation he's capable of doing the same, as opposed to Boudreau who has won 2 playoff series in his coaching career despite finishing 1st in the East three years in a row.

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Old
04-30-2013, 10:03 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by Timmy View Post
Not counting SJ's strengths, I'd think that an outsider's top three concerns regarding Vancouver's weaknesses (rightly or wrongly) in no particular order would be:

Schneider's status
Lackadaisical finish once the division was sewn up
Last year's first-round exit
If Schneider's not 100% they should be fine with a multiple Vezina nominee in net.

Besides Schneider this is the most complete their roster has been all season, their regular season record is not necessarily indicative of the team's potential (and they still went 26-15-7, not baad. I do think that record was inflated a bit by luck though, they were outplayed in a few of their early season wins when they were pretty crippled by injury)

Last year's first-round exit is beyond irrelevant given they went half the series missing a star player and were up against one of the most dominant playoff teams in modern history.

I think the Canucks have flown a little bit under the radar all year and it should be interesting to see what a mostly complete roster not holding back any tricks can do in the playoffs (Note that their announced Game 1 roster featured brand new line combos -- a few cynics attributed that to some sort of coaching lunacy but there's obviously reason behind it)


Last edited by Zone Starts: 05-01-2013 at 02:23 AM.
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Old
05-01-2013, 01:21 AM
  #43
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Those all look about right to me. SJ-Van is 50-50, it wouldn't surprise me if either team needed 7 or was over in 4.

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Old
05-01-2013, 01:36 AM
  #44
Killemdeader
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Meteor View Post
Sharks have Galiardi-Thornton-Burns, Marleau-Couture-Havlat, Torres-Pavelski-Wingels, Desjardins-Gomez-Burish.
Canucks have Sedin-Sedin-Burrows, Higgins-Kesler-Kassian, Raymond-Roy-Hansen, Ebbett-Lapierre-Weise.

Vancouver has the better 1st line no doubt, but SJ 2nd line looks slightly better, 3rd and 4th lines look fairly even. Overall probably small edge for Vancouver.

Sharks have Vlasic-Braun, Boyle-Irwin, Stuart-Hannan.
Canucks have Hamhuis-Garrison, Edler-Bieksa, Alberts-Corrado.

The top shutdown pairing for Vancouver is better. 2nd pairings are about equal offensively, but Boyle/Irwin has the defensive edge. 3rd pairings both look sketchy, SJ slightly better as Stuart is the best out of those 4 D-men. Overall defence is fairly even.

Goalie: Niemi vs Schneider/Luongo

Pretty even there, although Schneider may be injured. If so, Niemi has been a little better than Luongo this season.

Special teams:
SJ: 7th PP, 6th PK
VAN: 22nd PP, 8th PK

VAN-SJ looks like a pretty even matchup to me that could go either way.

In the Ducks/Wings matchup 2nd half records are:
Anaheim 12-9-3
Detroit 12-8-4

I think there's a perception that Anaheim was playing over their heads in the 1st half and they're actually not that good, making ANA/DET a fairly even matchup. The Wings were 4-0-0 in the last week of the season with 3 blowout wins, so maybe they're expecting some of that to carry over into the playoffs.

Also, Babcock managed to pull an upset in the 2003 series featuring these same teams, in a series where Detroit was on paper, much more powerful than this year's Ducks, so maybe there's an expectation he's capable of doing the same, as opposed to Boudreau who has won 2 playoff series in his coaching career despite finishing 1st in the East three years in a row.
Fair points. Didn't realize the Canucks weren't playing Ballard and Tanev. Still think the Detroit predictions were largely on name though.

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Old
05-01-2013, 02:09 AM
  #45
Spicy Porkins
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Originally Posted by Meteor View Post
Sharks have Galiardi-Thornton-Burns, Marleau-Couture-Havlat, Torres-Pavelski-Wingels, Desjardins-Gomez-Burish.
Canucks have Sedin-Sedin-Burrows, Higgins-Kesler-Kassian, Raymond-Roy-Hansen, Ebbett-Lapierre-Weise.

Vancouver has the better 1st line no doubt, but SJ 2nd line looks slightly better, 3rd and 4th lines look fairly even. Overall probably small edge for Vancouver.

Sharks have Vlasic-Braun, Boyle-Irwin, Stuart-Hannan.
Canucks have Hamhuis-Garrison, Edler-Bieksa, Alberts-Corrado.

The top shutdown pairing for Vancouver is better. 2nd pairings are about equal offensively, but Boyle/Irwin has the defensive edge. 3rd pairings both look sketchy, SJ slightly better as Stuart is the best out of those 4 D-men. Overall defence is fairly even.

Goalie: Niemi vs Schneider/Luongo

Pretty even there, although Schneider may be injured. If so, Niemi has been a little better than Luongo this season.

Special teams:
SJ: 7th PP, 6th PK
VAN: 22nd PP, 8th PK

VAN-SJ looks like a pretty even matchup to me that could go either way.

In the Ducks/Wings matchup 2nd half records are:
Anaheim 12-9-3
Detroit 12-8-4

I think there's a perception that Anaheim was playing over their heads in the 1st half and they're actually not that good, making ANA/DET a fairly even matchup. The Wings were 4-0-0 in the last week of the season with 3 blowout wins, so maybe they're expecting some of that to carry over into the playoffs.

Also, Babcock managed to pull an upset in the 2003 series featuring these same teams, in a series where Detroit was on paper, much more powerful than this year's Ducks, so maybe there's an expectation he's capable of doing the same, as opposed to Boudreau who has won 2 playoff series in his coaching career despite finishing 1st in the East three years in a row.
That was Giguere. Not Babcock.

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Old
05-01-2013, 02:37 AM
  #46
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calling weekes and cox pros is like calling cam barker an allstar

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Old
05-01-2013, 02:41 AM
  #47
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Originally Posted by Kirk Mclean View Post
Scratched my head until I realized who was making the picks.

NHL network and American pundits have always been clueless when it comes to the Canucks. Especially Hradek, his opinions on Canadian teams are absolutely laughable, he actually sounds like he has no idea what he's talking about.
Hradek's opinions on all teams are laughable!

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05-01-2013, 02:57 AM
  #48
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Originally Posted by MardocAgain View Post
Advanced stats gurus have been touting all season that the ducks are getting luckier than their play suggests and are due for a regression to the mean.

Might happen, might not, but not unfair to predict that they arent as good as their record.
I think that any 'expert' stating that needs to learn about the law of very large numbers. Regression to the mean isn't some karmic principle of statistics, and their usage of the term to suggest that is fallacious. In fairness to them, I see this more often with people that follow advanced stats, as laymen, than I do with most of the people doing work on the subject.

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Old
05-01-2013, 04:31 AM
  #49
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Originally Posted by CowMix View Post
Whhaaattt? On the upset scale...

NYI beating Pitt >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Detriot beating Anaheim

You're right, i forgot Detroit has the refs in their pocket, i should have factored that in.

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Old
05-01-2013, 07:01 AM
  #50
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They may be professionals but they clearly arent experts if they think the Pens Isles series will be a blowout. Idiots.

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