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Old
04-30-2013, 08:39 AM
  #426
NobodyBeatsTheWiz
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Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
If he plays the way he does now once he reaches the pros, it's not going to end well for him. He's way too aggressive, and relies on his superior speed and talent to recover.
Is there a single player in Juniors that would be successful in the NHL without adjusting how he plays?

I've seen plenty of examples of outstanding vision by Jones in the offensive zone, along with numerous examples of anticipating the play and shutting it down before it became threatening in the defensive zone.

He's not Nik Lidstrom, but he's got plenty of hockey sense.

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04-30-2013, 10:06 AM
  #427
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Robert Hagg? Do... not... want. I'd rather get Kerby Rychel or Ryan Hartman.
Yeah, I'm not sure Hagg is a first rounder. I don't think any of the Swedes helped themselves at the U18s and wouldn't count on anyone aside from Wennberg being a first rounder. It was a young squad overall but their higher-end guys, Hagg included, weren't good enough.

The Caps will likely pick a little later than that but if that were to play out in front of them I'd prefer Compher, Hartman, Mueller or Santini. Santini should be a big riser after clearly being the best US defenseman at that tournament.

Even Lidstrom struggled to a certain extent early on in his career in getting his timing down. It's too bad Colorado won't select Jones at #2 because then his career would turn out much better.

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04-30-2013, 12:08 PM
  #428
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Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
Jones doesn't have a lick of hockey sense.
IMO he's hockey sense is excellent. He does do some plays that won't work in NHL but why not use them as they work now? He makes excellent tape-to-tape passes, makes good decisions in off. zone, excellent at anticipating the play, blocking passing lanes etc.

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And "skating, size, etc" is equivalent to "tools."
That's what I meant. Maybe he should have said tools.

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04-30-2013, 12:20 PM
  #429
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
Is there a single player in Juniors that would be successful in the NHL without adjusting how he plays?

I've seen plenty of examples of outstanding vision by Jones in the offensive zone, along with numerous examples of anticipating the play and shutting it down before it became threatening in the defensive zone.

He's not Nik Lidstrom, but he's got plenty of hockey sense.
But his play style is such a large part of why he's getting the hype he is. The whole "notice Jones every time he is on the ice" is a direct result of his aggressive play in the offensive and neutral[!!] zones. He's not going to be able to do that against bigger, faster, and better competition in the NHL.

Does he have the potential to be a franchsie defenseman? Absolutely. I just don't think he actually will be one. Hopefully he proves me wrong, as he's a hell of a lot of fun to watch. It's a lot easier to draft a superstar forward than a superstar defenseman with an early pick. Granted, the defensemen also have a lower rate of full out busts.

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04-30-2013, 12:36 PM
  #430
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Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
But his play style is such a large part of why he's getting the hype he is. The whole "notice Jones every time he is on the ice" is a direct result of his aggressive play in the offensive and neutral[!!] zones. He's not going to be able to do that against bigger, faster, and better competition in the NHL.

Does he have the potential to be a franchsie defenseman? Absolutely. I just don't think he actually will be one. Hopefully he proves me wrong, as he's a hell of a lot of fun to watch. It's a lot easier to draft a superstar forward than a superstar defenseman with an early pick. Granted, the defensemen also have a lower rate of full out busts.
I still maintain that just about all top prospects make plays in Juniors that they won't be able to make at the NHL level. I don't think that should be held against them at all. Drew Doughty's one example off the top of my head that played a stand out game in Guelph, and it didn't hurt him. If anything, it's a positive that these prospects are able to dominate from the back end playing an assertive game against the best Junior competition in the world. It shows game-changing ability.

Frankly, I think it's a bit silly to lump all draft prospects together based on position. There are way too many factors that determine how players develop. The success or failure historically of highly-drafted defensemen is completely irrelevant to Jones, IMO. All that matters is that Colorado (or whoever picks him) chooses the proper development path for Jones, the individual (which is something I have no confidence in).

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04-30-2013, 01:08 PM
  #431
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While Jones may certainly end up as an exception to the rule, history is suggesting a strong trend that what highly touted defensemen are prior to the NHL is not necessarily and indicator of what they will be in the NHL. Just about everyone accepts that powerforwards and goalies take longer to develop and that centers often end up on the wing, so why are people so hesitant to accept this? Does it mean that Jones will automatically be a bad pick? No. Does it mean that Colorado should automatically draft someone other than Jones? No. It's just a factor to take into consideration and remember.

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04-30-2013, 01:41 PM
  #432
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Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
Jones doesn't have a lick of hockey sense...
So Central Scouting, which has him as the clear number 1, and the 8 of the 10 chief scouts McKenzie polled who had him number one are just ignoring his in your opinion 'lack of hockey sense?'

His hockey sense may not be is strongest attribute but he is far from lacking in it IMO.

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04-30-2013, 01:47 PM
  #433
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Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
While Jones may certainly end up as an exception to the rule, history is suggesting a strong trend that what highly touted defensemen are prior to the NHL is not necessarily and indicator of what they will be in the NHL. Just about everyone accepts that powerforwards and goalies take longer to develop and that centers often end up on the wing, so why are people so hesitant to accept this? Does it mean that Jones will automatically be a bad pick? No. Does it mean that Colorado should automatically draft someone other than Jones? No. It's just a factor to take into consideration and remember.
I don't think history suggests that at all. I think history suggests that if you rush defensemen, highly touted or not, they're more likely to flame out, as they take longer to develop. People love to point to EJ as a failure in drafting defensemen early, but rarely point to Doughty and Pietrangelo as successes. OEL and Alzner are both studs drafted in the top-10. Bouwmeester, Pitkanen, and Klesla are all really good players who've been elite or close to elite at times in their career. There are a bunch of others that look to be on the path to being really, really good if they're not already (Gudbranson, Hedman, Larsson, etc.).

I think people look at Johnson, Hamrlik, and Berard and immediately dismiss Jones as a viable #1 pick.

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04-30-2013, 02:09 PM
  #434
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
I think people look at Johnson, Hamrlik, and Berard and immediately dismiss Jones as a viable #1 pick.
Frankly I think it is far too early to write Johnson off, Hamrlik will very likely IMO finish his career in the top 20 of career NHL games played, and Berard suffered a freak career changing injury in his 4th season.

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04-30-2013, 02:17 PM
  #435
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I love how commentators talk about "need" at certain positions during the lead up to the draft- example: How the Hurricanes need a defenseman. If you need someone that badly- there are other avenues available. Best player available is the way to go- no matter what.

With Jones- I hope that the Avs take their time with him and if he needs to go back to Portland, send him back. I honestly think that we will only see MacKinnon, Drouin, Monahan and maybe Barkov (depending on contractual obligations) in the NHL this season.

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04-30-2013, 02:20 PM
  #436
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I love how commentators talk about "need" at certain positions during the lead up to the draft- example: How the Hurricanes need a defenseman. If you need someone that badly- there are other avenues available. Best player available is the way to go- no matter what.

With Jones- I hope that the Avs take their time with him and if he needs to go back to Portland, send him back. I honestly think that we will only see MacKinnon, Drouin, Monahan and maybe Barkov (depending on contractual obligations) in the NHL this season.
Agreed on Jones, though I bet Colorado rushes him.

I could see Lazar in an O'Reilly type role next season, and I'd lean more towards Lindholm in the NHL over Monahan.

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04-30-2013, 02:33 PM
  #437
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Horvat could also be that O'Reilly type depending on who takes him. Both will go earlier than ROR. I could also see Nurse or Zadorov making the jump if their team feels the need to rush them. It would be a poor move most likely but I could see it based on their physical attributes. I could also see Domi making the jump in a depth role depending on who drafts him.

Lindholm should return to the SEL unless he's starting off at RW in the NHL.

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04-30-2013, 03:34 PM
  #438
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The guy from the Denver Post was just on HNIC radio and said the Avs are definitely taking Jones.

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04-30-2013, 05:27 PM
  #439
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The guy from the Denver Post was just on HNIC radio and said the Avs are definitely taking Jones.
If you're referring to Dater, he's essentially worthless as a reporter. The Eurolanche Avs fan club is better (for example, Dater hasn't done a single player interview since the season ended, while Eurolanche did interviews with Hejda and Seth Jones). Dater is far, far worse than anybody we have here.

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04-30-2013, 05:37 PM
  #440
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Dater's a hack, but to be fair player interviews are worthless spacefiller as far as reporting goes. Fans like them so they're good for page views (or Dater's favorite, Sulia hits ) but there's no journalism involved in passing along the same canned cliches over and over again. He seems to have reasonable connection to the front office so I would imagine this is based on something... though "common sense" may be enough of a source for this one.

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04-30-2013, 05:40 PM
  #441
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He's a pretty big tool, but he seems more competent than any of the Washington beat writers. I'm basing that on very little, though, so who knows.

Edit: Second what brs said about interviews...who cares?

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04-30-2013, 05:44 PM
  #442
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I should clarify that I have nothing against player interviews or anything like that. But they don't add any clout wrt journalism, unless they're much deeper, more serious types (in-studio sitdowns and the like). Postgame quotes, breakdown day stuff... that's team PR work that maybe adds a few snippets to a reporter's story of choice. Nice to have as seasoning, but mostly meaningless.

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05-01-2013, 10:26 AM
  #443
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Originally Posted by ChibiPooky View Post
If you're referring to Dater, he's essentially worthless as a reporter. The Eurolanche Avs fan club is better (for example, Dater hasn't done a single player interview since the season ended, while Eurolanche did interviews with Hejda and Seth Jones). Dater is far, far worse than anybody we have here.
It wasn't Dater. I want to say it was Mike Chambers.

He said the Avs had already been working on a plan to package their pick with something else to move up to get Jones.

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05-01-2013, 10:42 AM
  #444
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Dater connected to the Avs front office? He frequently doesn't report trades or signings until the day after, if at all.

Chambers is better than Dater, but he just exists to stir the pot. I take anything either of those two writes with a grain of salt the size of Utah, especially when it comes to "insider" information.

That said, it wouldn't shock me in the least if the Avs coveted Jones.

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05-01-2013, 01:50 PM
  #445
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I hate Dater, but we need such homer in the Caps media. We don't have one.

On topic, what about Morgan Klimchuk? Love the name-surname combo and plays on the line with Stephenson.

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05-01-2013, 01:56 PM
  #446
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I hate Dater, but we need such homer in the Caps media. We don't have one.

On topic, what about Morgan Klimchuk? Love the name-surname combo and plays on the line with Stephenson.
I dunno. I think the Caps need a safe C prospect in the 1st this year (assuming a tier of roughly equivalent BPAs). Klimchuk doesn't strike me as all that "safe". I'd shoot for maybe a Lazar or Horvat, whose floors look higher to me.

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05-01-2013, 03:22 PM
  #447
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So, who's going to be our late round goalie addition (aka the Dave Prior special)?

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05-01-2013, 03:43 PM
  #448
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So, who's going to be our late round goalie addition (aka the Dave Prior special)?
The candidates: http://www.draftsite.com/nhl/position/g/33/

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05-01-2013, 03:55 PM
  #449
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I'm guessing the late-round goalie addition is one of the two 5th round picks. No idea who that'll be though.

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05-01-2013, 04:36 PM
  #450
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I'd shoot for maybe a Lazar or Horvat, whose floors look higher to me.
Ideally, yeah, but I'd expect both to go 11-20. Klimchuk should be on their radar and his speed/skill combination does make for an alright fit. I think he's fairly safe but maybe not a guy with as much upside as they tend to like. Hartman brings similar concerns but along the lines of Wilson they could overlook that if they really like the player's competitiveness. I'd probably take Klimchuk over Rychel but would prefer a guy like Compher who is closer to being that total package. And, as I've said, Mueller and Santini stand out as far as potential D options in that range and Morin could be a dark horse later first rounder.

Saros has some similarities to the Soberg pick in terms of being an undersized goalie so he's perhaps an option should he be available in the fourth or fifth.

Woodlief's latest RLR column.

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