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Old
09-12-2006, 08:47 AM
  #76
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I think you have missed one spectacular thing in Lundqvist's resumé. Though I can agree the competition wasn't spectacular (in Rangers that year), Lundqvist is the first European goalie to jump directly from Europe into the first team, grabbing the no.1 spot after a few months. Even Hasek didn't do that.

Then take into consideration that the European style of play is somewhat different because of the bigger rink, a change especially hard for goalies to adapt.

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09-12-2006, 10:40 AM
  #77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chimp View Post
I think you have missed one spectacular thing in Lundqvist's resumé. Though I can agree the competition wasn't spectacular (in Rangers that year), Lundqvist is the first European goalie to jump directly from Europe into the first team, grabbing the no.1 spot after a few months. Even Hasek didn't do that.

Then take into consideration that the European style of play is somewhat different because of the bigger rink, a change especially hard for goalies to adapt.

It's not like Lundqvist came here as an 18 or 19 year old, on another board I was posting on (msgnetwork) I predicted last season that by December Lundqvist would be the starter. I expected him to be much better than Weekes, though I didn't expect a Vezina finalist performance...I think he can do even better this season.

All in all, however, as far as this thread is concerned Edge put it best. Even if it's Holt, we want to keep the best of the bunch when the time for a decision comes. Right now there's absolutely no reason to trade Montoya or Lundqvist, there should be no rush to make a decision now.

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09-15-2006, 06:33 AM
  #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Edge View Post
How do you figure closer to two, you had even someone else call out your approach in another thread.

Again it's not your opinion, it's the fact throughout this whole thread (and like the ones before it) you still have yet to address the counter points.

So like I do every time we discuss this, let me summarize them.

1. The comparison between Montoya and Lundqvist at the same age.

2. The accomplishments of Montoya and Lundqvist at the same age.

3. The history, with far more examples than a classification or rare, of the younger goalie passing even a great performance of an older guy.

4. The response to your feeling that the opposing view does not give Lundqvist the credit he deserves, despite the fact that the same things were said when he was Al's age and he has gotten props by that opposing side throughout the season.

It has nothing to do with groupthink or that you and I agree.

Honestly if we agree that's fine or disagree that's fine as well, discussions happen BECAUSE of those differences. The part where it falls apart is that whether you realize it or not, you don't actually defend your view. You take it personally and consider it (as you put it) a "smack" on you rather than saying "Well I believe this because A, B,C. And while you believe and have pointed to 1,2, 3 I don't agree with it because of these reasons".

Again nothing to do with what you believe, but the fact that you often just leave it dangling in the wind without any support. If someone can offer a counterpoint that goes unaddressed it hurts your argument. What's really funny is that while you insist on thinking I'm "smacking" or "attacking" you, the reality is that I'm actually giving you the chance to actually build upon your ideas and go into greater detail in your opposing view from mine.
Ironically, it's you arguing with yourself in your latest post. I don't need to address points that I do not disagree with.

I don't care who agrees or disagrees with me or you. You care about that. That's fine.

My argument has never been based on who accomplished more before their 22nd birthday. Who cares?

Lundqvist has already shown himself to be special at the NHL level. I can't help that.

You injected arguments like Montoya played at least as well as Lundqvist when they were in diapers. Again, irrelevant.

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09-15-2006, 08:45 AM
  #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chosen View Post
You injected arguments like Montoya played at least as well as Lundqvist when they were in diapers. Again, irrelevant.
How is it irrelevant? It is only irrelevant if you want to ignore the crux of the argument. You keep claiming that Henke is already God's gift to goaltenders. You keep claiming that there is simply no way that Montoya can be that good. Then how can you keep brushing aside Edge's point that at the same point of their respective development, Henke WAS NOT better than Montoya? If you extrapolate the argument, then in another several years, Montoya has every chance to be at least as good as Henke was last year. Off course acknowledging that, will defeat your entire argument of Henke definitively being the franchise goaltender of the future. Because if Montoya shows that he is as good as Henke, then in most probability, the older and more experienced goalie will fetch a better trade bounty.

If you are going to argue a point, then the least you can do is not view everything with tunnel vision and at least make an attempt to see where the others are coming from. Otherwise, the only person you are debating with is yourself.

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09-15-2006, 08:53 AM
  #80
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Lundqvist

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09-15-2006, 09:12 AM
  #81
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junior apples and oranges

Quote:
Originally Posted by True Blue View Post
How is it irrelevant? It is only irrelevant if you want to ignore the crux of the argument. You keep claiming that Henke is already God's gift to goaltenders. You keep claiming that there is simply no way that Montoya can be that good. Then how can you keep brushing aside Edge's point that at the same point of their respective development, Henke WAS NOT better than Montoya? If you extrapolate the argument, then in another several years, Montoya has every chance to be at least as good as Henke was last year. Off course acknowledging that, will defeat your entire argument of Henke definitively being the franchise goaltender of the future. Because if Montoya shows that he is as good as Henke, then in most probability, the older and more experienced goalie will fetch a better trade bounty.

If you are going to argue a point, then the least you can do is not view everything with tunnel vision and at least make an attempt to see where the others are coming from. Otherwise, the only person you are debating with is yourself.
It actually is pretty irrelevant.

Comparing to players in totally different junior situations, different countries, different leagues and different hockey culture.

I heard a very intresting interview with a number of swedish junior and senior coaches.
And they discussed what a junior coach should aim for in his or her work.

A: To get each individual to deliver his or hers best game as a junior to prove that that he or she or worthy of a senior position.
B: To get each player to develop and grow so that he or she will deliver the best as a senior.

A swedish junior doesn't have to be top of class to get several chances to play in the senior team. And the focus is much more on which junior organisation has delivered the best senior players, than on which organisations has the best juniors.

So I claim that comparing a Swedish, US, Canadian, Slovak, Czech, Russian and Finnish junior is silly.

They're not in the same system, they're not in the same culture.

// hdw
ps.
My silly claim is that Lundqvist was the better junior
ds.

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Old
09-15-2006, 03:18 PM
  #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chosen View Post
Ironically, it's you arguing with yourself in your latest post. I don't need to address points that I do not disagree with.

I don't care who agrees or disagrees with me or you. You care about that. That's fine.

My argument has never been based on who accomplished more before their 22nd birthday. Who cares?

Lundqvist has already shown himself to be special at the NHL level. I can't help that.

You injected arguments like Montoya played at least as well as Lundqvist when they were in diapers. Again, irrelevant.

You once again have no addressed a single point directed at you.

HDW has made two posts in the this thread (and an opposite opinion of mine) and said more in two posts than you've managed to put together in two several page discussions about this subject.

Man I don't think I've said this anyone on here before but you are probably one of two people on here right now who I honestly have to consider a ******* joke.

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09-15-2006, 03:24 PM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hdw View Post
It actually is pretty irrelevant.

Comparing to players in totally different junior situations, different countries, different leagues and different hockey culture.

I heard a very intresting interview with a number of swedish junior and senior coaches.
And they discussed what a junior coach should aim for in his or her work.

A: To get each individual to deliver his or hers best game as a junior to prove that that he or she or worthy of a senior position.
B: To get each player to develop and grow so that he or she will deliver the best as a senior.

A swedish junior doesn't have to be top of class to get several chances to play in the senior team. And the focus is much more on which junior organisation has delivered the best senior players, than on which organisations has the best juniors.

So I claim that comparing a Swedish, US, Canadian, Slovak, Czech, Russian and Finnish junior is silly.

They're not in the same system, they're not in the same culture.

// hdw
ps.
My silly claim is that Lundqvist was the better junior
ds.

And that's a valid point.

Personally while I think you can't do a direct compare you can do some level of compare and contrast when you watch both leagues.

Personally for me when I saw them both at the same ages they were very similar. Lundqvist was a better in a few areas and Montoya in others, for me when I compare what I saw I see two guys who are about the same at the same age, very close (though obviously with different things they needed to work on).

And while you maintain comparing players in different junior leagues to be silly, I believe it can be done (though not on pure numbers) but rather on experience from watching both leagues and finding a common frame of reference. In the end it all comes down to judgement (no right or wrong really, just opinion based on what one percieves as points to explain it).

But as we've discussed in pm's, that's just my view.

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Old
09-15-2006, 06:25 PM
  #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by True Blue View Post
How is it irrelevant? It is only irrelevant if you want to ignore the crux of the argument. You keep claiming that Henke is already God's gift to goaltenders. You keep claiming that there is simply no way that Montoya can be that good. Then how can you keep brushing aside Edge's point that at the same point of their respective development, Henke WAS NOT better than Montoya? If you extrapolate the argument, then in another several years, Montoya has every chance to be at least as good as Henke was last year. Off course acknowledging that, will defeat your entire argument of Henke definitively being the franchise goaltender of the future. Because if Montoya shows that he is as good as Henke, then in most probability, the older and more experienced goalie will fetch a better trade bounty.

If you are going to argue a point, then the least you can do is not view everything with tunnel vision and at least make an attempt to see where the others are coming from. Otherwise, the only person you are debating with is yourself.
I understand the point the two of you are making. I just disagree with it. Why is that so hard to fathom?

What I have stated since the beginning is that I would trade Montoya if I thought I was getting the better of it. When someone said to me that by definition we can't get better value now my response was an extremely simple if you can't make a deal you think helps you, you don't make the deal. Here I was on your side of this whole thing.

Instead of just accepting that I said I would not deal Montoya (or anyone else) if I didn't think I was getting the better of it Edge and yourself continued to explain to me that Montoya is better at this stage of his career. I disagree, but so what.

Neither of us can state factually that Montoya or Lundqvist is better at the age of 21 or 22. I don't know the answer but I do know that for Montoya to be better at that age he would have to be capable of being an MVP in a league that featured NHL players, something that Lundqvist has already done. In my opinion, it's pretty unlikely, but I don't know with any certainty. Do you?

The other point we disagree upon in regards to Lundqvist-Montoya is, if I've understood your opinion correctly, is that Montoya's value can only rise. The value of anything can go up or down. Is that true?

I enjoy this stuff. It's more fun than working.

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Old
09-15-2006, 06:30 PM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Edge View Post
You once again have no addressed a single point directed at you.

HDW has made two posts in the this thread (and an opposite opinion of mine) and said more in two posts than you've managed to put together in two several page discussions about this subject.

Man I don't think I've said this anyone on here before but you are probably one of two people on here right now who I honestly have to consider a ******* joke.
I've addressed every point. As soon as you choose to make a point I will address that as well. Your opinion of me could not be any less important to me. That is because I only value respect of people I respect.

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09-15-2006, 07:36 PM
  #86
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Quote:
I understand the point the two of you are making. I just disagree with it. Why is that so hard to fathom?
Okay, now if I may ask, why? What do you disagree with and why do you disagree with it.

Quote:
Instead of just accepting that I said I would not deal Montoya (or anyone else) if I didn't think I was getting the better of it Edge and yourself continued to explain to me that Montoya is better at this stage of his career. I disagree, but so what.
Okay, we get that. Now explain why?

Quote:
Neither of us can state factually that Montoya or Lundqvist is better at the age of 21 or 22. I don't know the answer but I do know that for Montoya to be better at that age he would have to be capable of being an MVP in a league that featured NHL players, something that Lundqvist has already done. In my opinion, it's pretty unlikely, but I don't know with any certainty. Do you?
That's fine, nothing is a fact. Just explain what you believe seperates their directions and where they were at the same age, or maybe why you don't think Montoya will get to Lundqvists level.

Quote:
The other point we disagree upon in regards to Lundqvist-Montoya is, if I've understood your opinion correctly, is that Montoya's value can only rise. The value of anything can go up or down. Is that true?

Okay now explain why you believe it is more likely to go down or maybe level off than it is to reach Lundqvists level. Which kind of goes back to the "If you don't believe Montoya is as good at the same age, than explain why" question.

I'm just asking these straight out, not expecting us to agree. Just asking the questions why and what lead you to that conclusion.

Cutting through all the other ******** between us, I'm just asking those questions. No smacks, no insults, just questions.

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Old
09-16-2006, 05:34 PM
  #87
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Sorry if you guys get this question a lot, but will Montoya and Weekes have to battle it out in camp for the backup job, or does one of them have the inside track?

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09-16-2006, 08:24 PM
  #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chosen View Post
I understand the point the two of you are making. I just disagree with it. Why is that so hard to fathom?

What I have stated since the beginning is that I would trade Montoya if I thought I was getting the better of it. When someone said to me that by definition we can't get better value now my response was an extremely simple if you can't make a deal you think helps you, you don't make the deal. Here I was on your side of this whole thing.

Instead of just accepting that I said I would not deal Montoya (or anyone else) if I didn't think I was getting the better of it Edge and yourself continued to explain to me that Montoya is better at this stage of his career. I disagree, but so what.

Neither of us can state factually that Montoya or Lundqvist is better at the age of 21 or 22. I don't know the answer but I do know that for Montoya to be better at that age he would have to be capable of being an MVP in a league that featured NHL players, something that Lundqvist has already done. In my opinion, it's pretty unlikely, but I don't know with any certainty. Do you?

The other point we disagree upon in regards to Lundqvist-Montoya is, if I've understood your opinion correctly, is that Montoya's value can only rise. The value of anything can go up or down. Is that true?

I enjoy this stuff. It's more fun than working.

Chosen, your problem is that: 'that's my opinion and you should respect it' is not a good arguement. Infact, it's not an argument at all. If you want to be taken seriously then you are going to have to defend your positions, if you don't do that then no one is going to give your opinions any weight.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hdw View Post
It actually is pretty irrelevant.

Comparing to players in totally different junior situations, different countries, different leagues and different hockey culture.

I heard a very intresting interview with a number of swedish junior and senior coaches.
And they discussed what a junior coach should aim for in his or her work.

A: To get each individual to deliver his or hers best game as a junior to prove that that he or she or worthy of a senior position.
B: To get each player to develop and grow so that he or she will deliver the best as a senior.

A swedish junior doesn't have to be top of class to get several chances to play in the senior team. And the focus is much more on which junior organisation has delivered the best senior players, than on which organisations has the best juniors.

So I claim that comparing a Swedish, US, Canadian, Slovak, Czech, Russian and Finnish junior is silly.

They're not in the same system, they're not in the same culture.

// hdw
ps.
My silly claim is that Lundqvist was the better junior
ds.
the thing is that if we can't compare them as juniors then we can't compare them at all. Because comparing a 21 year old goaltender and a 24 year old goaltender is completely impossible when you consider the development that will happen in those three years

I will agree with you that contrasting two differant junior leagues from two differant continents is extreemly difficult, but if you can't do it then there's no point in comparing the two at all (and this might actually be the best position to take.)

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Old
09-17-2006, 08:58 AM
  #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Foppa2118 View Post
Sorry if you guys get this question a lot, but will Montoya and Weekes have to battle it out in camp for the backup job, or does one of them have the inside track?
Considering Montoya's health issues, I doubt there's going to be a real battle between him and Weekes. Besides, I'd rather Montoya play another AHL season, preferably with the playoffs.

You never know, Holt or Valiquette might challenge Weekes.

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09-17-2006, 09:14 AM
  #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Edge View Post
Okay, now if I may ask, why? What do you disagree with and why do you disagree with it.



Okay, we get that. Now explain why?
At the risk of wasting everyone's time I'll try it again. For this first question I don't even remember what it is in regards to so I'll pass unless you want to refresh my memory.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Edge View Post
That's fine, nothing is a fact. Just explain what you believe seperates their directions and where they were at the same age, or maybe why you don't think Montoya will get to Lundqvists level.
I don't feel Montoya will reach Lundqvist's level for two reasons.
  1. Statistical probability
  2. Competition faced

The odds of another elite goaltender coming along in Montoya is poor.

Even if we want to look at their pre-NHL time I have already stated that what Lundqvist accomplished in international competion, at least so far, absolutely dwarfs what Montoya has accomplished in my opinion.

We already have disagreed on the relative strength of the AHL vs. where Lundqvist competed. Lundqvist had already shown that he could excel against the best the world had to offer, including NHL'ers. Facing legitimate NHL stars and shutting them down is far more impressive to me than shutting down players in the AHL, a league where there just are no players of that caliber.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Edge View Post

Okay now explain why you believe it is more likely to go down or maybe level off than it is to reach Lundqvists level. Which kind of goes back to the "If you don't believe Montoya is as good at the same age, than explain why" question.

I'm just asking these straight out, not expecting us to agree. Just asking the questions why and what lead you to that conclusion.

Cutting through all the other ******** between us, I'm just asking those questions. No smacks, no insults, just questions.
See above answer.

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09-17-2006, 09:18 AM
  #91
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Originally Posted by xander View Post
Chosen, your problem is that: 'that's my opinion and you should respect it' is not a good arguement. Infact, it's not an argument at all. If you want to be taken seriously then you are going to have to defend your positions, if you don't do that then no one is going to give your opinions any weight.
I already answered Edge's question before. I have answered it again in the previous post in this thread. Therefore I reject as unfounded your claim that I said "that's my opinion and you should respect it." This statement is akin to saying "When did you stop beating your wife?" The premise is false.

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09-17-2006, 08:03 PM
  #92
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I don't feel Montoya will reach Lundqvist's level for two reasons.
  1. Statistical probability
  2. Competition faced

The odds of another elite goaltender coming along in Montoya is poor.

Even if we want to look at their pre-NHL time I have already stated that what Lundqvist accomplished in international competion, at least so far, absolutely dwarfs what Montoya has accomplished in my opinion.
Okay finally we are getting somewhere.

Now in response to that, what statistical probability do you believe points to that?

Are you pointing to the odds of both goalies hitting that level or something else?

Second question, did Lundqvist accomplish the feats your pointing to at the same age as Montoya is now? If he didn't how can we compare them?



Quote:
We already have disagreed on the relative strength of the AHL vs. where Lundqvist competed. Lundqvist had already shown that he could excel against the best the world had to offer, including NHL'ers. Facing legitimate NHL stars and shutting them down is far more impressive to me than shutting down players in the AHL, a league where there just are no players of that caliber.


Okay let me ask a few questions in response to this.

A. How many NHL players both past and future do you think Lundqvist faced in the 02-03 season in his Swedish league play from that season? In comparison, how many past and future NHL players do you think Montoya faced last year in the AHL?

Considering that over the next few years more players will see NHL time who've come from the AHL than the Swedish league, how do you figure Lundqvist saw more NHL'ers by the same point in his career?

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09-18-2006, 10:29 PM
  #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Edge View Post
Okay finally we are getting somewhere.
Now in response to that, what statistical probability do you believe points to that?
Are you pointing to the odds of both goalies hitting that level or something else?
Both goalies hitting that level and any goalie who hasn't hit that level yet, ever hitting it. As far as us finally getting there, my probability discussion is new but the other half has been presented numerous times before.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Edge View Post
Second question, did Lundqvist accomplish the feats your pointing to at the same age as Montoya is now? If he didn't how can we compare them?
You are taking a snapshot of a one year window and arguing its relative merits. After this small window of yours Lundqvist shut down great NHL'ers during the strike.

He established a track record of being a superior goaltender before he came to the NHL. His record and save percentage in both the regular season and in post-season in Europe are almost beyond belief good.

Your best argument would be that Montoya won't get that same chance. Nevertheless, the players that Lundqvist dominated in international play are light years better than what Montoya has seen to date or will see before he ever comes up, assuming that he does.

I don't think it's fair to set up a value based system that excludes the time where we learned just how great Lundqvist is. To me this goes back to what I've said before here; It doesn't matter who played better at 18, 19, or 20 etc.

We have evidence of Lundqvist's being special before his time in the NHL and during his time in the NHL. Montoya has showed us he can excel in a league where a Brad Smyth can score 50 goals. That doesn't mean he won't excel against better comp but so far we have zero evidence that he will excel against the same level that Lundqvist has already demonstrated in two different phases of his career.

If there was a way that I could somehow place a bet on which goaltender will enjoy a greater NHL career I would bet as much as I could afford. It wouldn't guarantee me being a winner but percentage wise I'd be getting the best of it on an even money bet.

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09-19-2006, 01:17 PM
  #94
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Both goalies hitting that level and any goalie who hasn't hit that level yet, ever hitting it. As far as us finally getting there, my probability discussion is new but the other half has been presented numerous times before.
Thing is not's that rare, in fact we can point to numerous examples over the last decade in which both goalies hit the level or in which the latter goalie surpassed the former.

In some of the cases the first goalie to make it accomplished even more than Lundqvist did in his first season.

So while I keep hearing how rare and unlikely it is, there is a pretty descent list of examples we can give to show how many times it's happened. Heck we ourselves as Ranger fans have an example from the last time we had two stud goalies in the system. Heck we had a 23 year old Vezina winner and it was the later arriving goalie who won the cup.

So while I understand your opinion, when we look there is plenty of evidence that shows it's not very unlikely. Now I'm not actually picking Montoya over Lundqvist ( I think it will indeed be tough for Montoya to pull it off) but I also don't think it's THAT unlikely based on what we've seen throughout history.

In so much, all I'm really advocating is that we really can't know just yet. And I'll get into my reasons why below in my other responses.
Quote:
You are taking a snapshot of a one year window and arguing its relative merits. After this small window of yours Lundqvist shut down great NHL'ers during the strike.
Actually I'm taking into account every season they played till the age of 21. Considering Montoya hasn't gone past that point yet, how can I compare them.

I'm not pointing to only the season they played at 20-21 but the seasons they played at 17/18, 18/19, 19/20 and 20/21.

Once Montoya plays his 21/22 season I'll gladly include that as well, but I can't considering that season hasn't started yet.

Now what I'm saying is that when I look at what they accomplished from 17-21 and what I saw of Montoya vs. what I saw of Lundqvist at the same age I see accomplishments that are both really impressive for that age and the same level of ability as well as the same areas that need to be worked on.

Now if need be I could go into a bit more detail about what I saw that has influenced my opinion and the believes of those I've talked to within the sport that have also had an impact. That might give a little more detail behind the mindset behind my views, but I didn't want to throw it out there if you weren't interested. But I am willing to go into greater details if you'd like.

Quote:
He established a track record of being a superior goaltender before he came to the NHL. His record and save percentage in both the regular season and in post-season in Europe are almost beyond belief good.

Your best argument would be that Montoya won't get that same chance. Nevertheless, the players that Lundqvist dominated in international play are light years better than what Montoya has seen to date or will see before he ever comes up, assuming that he does.
And that I happen to disagree with. As a young goalie, Montoya faced the same international competition at WJC's. He hasn't faced World Championships, but I also think as a whole the AHL has far more talent than the European leagues.

I think when you look at the % of players who have played or will play in the NHL who are in the AHL vs. the same in European pro leagues, it isn't even close. I also believe, from working within the sport and seeing as many games as I do, that the AHL is superior (as a whole not neccessarily team by team) than 99% of the European leagues.

And while Montoya may or may not get the chance, that doesn't diminish his talent and abilities any less. It just means he hasn't gotten the chance yet. I can't say what chances he'll get in the next year, but his potential and talent level doesn't depend on that. His accomplishments certainly might, but whether he eventually surpasses Lundqvist doesn't. And frankly I don't know if he will ever catch or surpass Lundqvist, but even still I'd like to find out.

At 21/22 Lundqvist had an opportunity to dominate a European league, Montoya is not going to get the chance but at the end of the day I don't think plays into how good he's going to be or is. If Lundqvist got hurt tomorrow and missed the entire season it doesn't make him any less of a talent.

At the end of the day all I'm advocating is that there is a chance Montoya might be as good or better than Lundqvist. I think his accomplishments are right up there (see opinions on the league, personal feelings from watching them play,etc.) and there's really little reason to forgo the ability to see where it takes him. At the end of the day, even if one believes that Montoya will never be as good as Lundqvist there's very little reason to not see where Montoya goes anyway. If Lundqivst is the man, than that is great by me.

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I don't think it's fair to set up a value based system that excludes the time where we learned just how great Lundqvist is. To me this goes back to what I've said before here; It doesn't matter who played better at 18, 19, or 20 etc.
Well how is it fair to include a season Montoya hasn't even played yet? Or how is it fair to include an age he hasn't reached?

How can we compare seasons in which only one player has lived long enough to play?

Lundqvist didn't suddenly become great, he was a great prospect at 17, 18, 19, 20, etc. Whether or not people knew it or saw him is another story, but he was great than. He just kept developing.

Lundqvists career didn't just come out of left field. In other words he wasn't an overnight success. His career took a natural progression in which he improved and took steps forward which eventually lead him to what we saw last year. There was a pattern of play where every year you saw the improvements he made and how he became a better and better goalie.

Montoya's career hasn't come out left field either. I've seen the improvements in his play from his Freshman year to his his AHL season last year. I've seen the pattern of play where you see the immprovements. Likewise there has also been a natural progression and improvements in the technique. The two really are not that different that one might think. They've had to work on the same things and have responded with the same improvements. Their dedication and focus and the results its yielded in the similar adjustments they've had to make are really pretty similar.

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We have evidence of Lundqvist's being special before his time in the NHL and during his time in the NHL. Montoya has showed us he can excel in a league where a Brad Smyth can score 50 goals. That doesn't mean he won't excel against better comp but so far we have zero evidence that he will excel against the same level that Lundqvist has already demonstrated in two different phases of his career.
Yes the AHL is a league where Brad Smyth can score 50, but the European league's are not all-stars and NHL calibre players here. Europe, just like the AHL has their own Brad Smyth's and journeymen and washed up players and younger prospects.

You're 100% right, Montoya hasn't shown he can excel against the same level of competition at the age of 21. And at the age of 21 neither had Lundqvist yet.

We simply cannot compare Montoya to what Lundqvist did at an older age. Just like if Montoya was the older we couldn't do that. Just like we couldn't compare Lundqvist in 2001 to what Blackburn was doing. All we can compare is the same ages.

The phases you speak of Montoya hasn't hit yet, there's no if's or but's about it. But what he's done so far as earned him the chance to see if he can, just like what Lundqvist accomplished BEFORE those phases earned him that shot.

We don't know how or even where Montoya will play next season, all I am advocating is seeing what he does. Just like when Lundqvist was the same age I advocated seeing what he does too. Maybe he really impresses, maybe he doesn't. But with what's he done so far, that is a chance worth taking just like it was worth taking on Lundqvist at the same age.

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If there was a way that I could somehow place a bet on which goaltender will enjoy a greater NHL career I would bet as much as I could afford. It wouldn't guarantee me being a winner but percentage wise I'd be getting the best of it on an even money bet.
And I have not even said that I think Montoya is going to be the better goalie. All I've said is that is that time will tell and we'll find out. Yes Lundqvist is the better bet, no one is denying that. But the real question is why gamble? Why bet on it? Why not just wait and find out?

What is there really to be gained by betting on is really the question I ask myself? We aren't at a crossroads, there is no need to move anyone, there is nothing to be gained by making that decision now. So why not see where then future takes these two guys? Personally I think Lundqvist is going to be hard to knock from his spot, but I don't believe it is impossible. But I also don't see anything to gain by deciding now. Even if one believes the % of Montoya beating Lundqvist is low, there's little incentive to decide now. It's a win/win situation:

If Lundqvist maintains his title, the Rangers have a top goalie and they'll be successful.

If Montoya pulls of the longshot, the Rangers have an even better goalie and they'll be successful.

If Montoya is right behind Lundqvist, the Rangers have a good trading chip in Montoya and still have the better goalie in Lundqvist.

If Montoya becomes an NHL goalie but not close to Lundqvist, the Rangers have a backup.

If Montoya does a 180 and flops completely, it's a dead point because they still have Lundqvist and they took a shot at getting another player that didn't work (the counter argument that they missed out on getting something in return for Montoya is pretty minimal simply because there isn't a deal to be had and right now the odds are pretty solid he won't be a total flop and is thus not particularly worth the risk right now).

Again, either way you clock it, the Rangers win.

It's not likely that Montoya passes Lundqvist, but it's not far fetched at all.

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09-19-2006, 03:31 PM
  #95
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Geographic diatribe

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Originally Posted by Edge View Post
And that I happen to disagree with. As a young goalie, Montoya faced the same international competition at WJC's. He hasn't faced World Championships, but I also think as a whole the AHL has far more talent than the European leagues.

I think when you look at the % of players who have played or will play in the NHL who are in the AHL vs. the same in European pro leagues, it isn't even close. I also believe, from working within the sport and seeing as many games as I do, that the AHL is superior (as a whole not neccessarily team by team) than 99% of the European leagues.
Let me start with saying that I agree on the result.

There's is nothing that states that Montoya can't reach, or even exceed, Henke's level.
And there is indications that this can happen.

But I disagree with your assessment or 'european leagues' vs AHL.

First of all I think you have to admit that the various european leagues aren't exactly the same.
I don't wanna raise a conflict of brotherly love here but I think it's safe to state that SEL is somewhat better than the Italian league.

I'll then be bold enough to state that AHL players and teams would have a rough time in the top tier european leagues.

I call the WC result history to the stand.
The WC is played as the NHL playoff is underway, so the players are mainly from the european leagues, and second tier players from NHL (the ones that didn't make it to play off).

That means that the european teams are dominated by european players, while USA and Canada is mainly NHL players, not many AHL players make the team.

And it's not uncommon for the european teams to do quite well.

There's also a very big diff between j.random AHL team and j.random European team.
The AHL team is a dedicated storage and development container for it's NHL team.

The european team work as a contender for the national title.
Sure, lot's of the young ones, and random journeymen, see it as a step to NHL, but the goal is to secure the national title, not watch your phone for a call up to the NHL team.

Long diatribe, but my point is still that Henke proved his mettle, at Montoya's age.

Which of course doesn't mean that Montoya can't pass him.

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09-19-2006, 03:55 PM
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First of all I think you have to admit that the various european leagues aren't exactly the same.
I don't wanna raise a conflict of brotherly love here but I think it's safe to state that SEL is somewhat better than the Italian league.
Oh no without doubt they aren't all on the same level.

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I'll then be bold enough to state that AHL players and teams would have a rough time in the top tier european leagues.

I call the WC result history to the stand.
The WC is played as the NHL playoff is underway, so the players are mainly from the european leagues, and second tier players from NHL (the ones that didn't make it to play off).

That means that the european teams are dominated by european players, while USA and Canada is mainly NHL players, not many AHL players make the team.

And it's not uncommon for the european teams to do quite well.
One slight problem, the european clubs ALSO have NHL'ers. So the European clubs have their pros PLUS their NHL'ers

As a whole the tournament mostly consists of NHL'ers for all sides involved, maybe there are a few scattered players who aren't NHL players.

The other things is that most NHL teams are not willing to send their 20 year old stud prospect to the world championships. If the teams are concerned about the olympics you can imagine how they feel about the World Championships.

The other problem is twofold. A. The AHL playoffs are still going so you lose those guys and B. If there is a top young player whose AHL team is out, they are often up practicing with the big club so they're not going to the WC anyway.

When you add all that up, you're going to miss a lot of players.

North America has never had a vested interest in many of the World Championships, that's why regardless of the % of NHL'ers background or what was being done on an olympic or canada cup stage, the World championships have also been Euopean dominated. As sad as it is to say, North American teams just don't invest a ton in it.


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There's also a very big diff between j.random AHL team and j.random European team.
The AHL team is a dedicated storage and development container for it's NHL team.

The european team work as a contender for the national title.
Sure, lot's of the young ones, and random journeymen, see it as a step to NHL, but the goal is to secure the national title, not watch your phone for a call up to the NHL team.
I guess it comes down to a simple pricipal for me.

Look at the amount of washed up NHL'ers, failed prospects and other former AHL players who jump right into big contracts and better results with the overwhelming majority of European teams. Than look at the reverse, not nearly as many.

The AHL has a steady mix of top young talent, veterans and in between. I don't see that on European clubs, even amongst some of the best. Even on average SEL team I see far less guys who would ever see the light of day in an NHL game vs. those on an average AHL team.

Quote:
Long diatribe, but my point is still that Henke proved his mettle, at Montoya's age.

Which of course doesn't mean that Montoya can't pass him.
And don't get me wrong, I think Lundqvist TOTALLY proved himself. That is not my issue or my intention to diminish.

My view isn't even that Montoya WILL pass him, but rather than Montoya MIGHT. As such I want to see if he can. It'd take a lot, but it wouldn't take a miracle or be a once in 20 year type occurance.

Make sense?

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09-19-2006, 05:22 PM
  #97
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Edge View Post

My view isn't even that Montoya WILL pass him, but rather than Montoya MIGHT. As such I want to see if he can. It'd take a lot, but it wouldn't take a miracle or be a once in 20 year type occurance.

Make sense?
Makes all sense, and I agree 100%.

But I still state that you shouldn't compare 1st tier european leagues (swedish, finnish, russian, and so on) with AHL.

The latest swedish WC team had 5 NHL's I think, 3-4 washouts from Wings (like Zetterberg, Kronwall and such) plus Nylander.

And a team captain from swedish second tier.

Then there was a bunch of SEL players in Finland, Slovakia, Swiss and other teams,

When they reached the quarters there where more SEL players than NHL players.

Not to mention AHL players.

But the big diff between AHL and SEL, SM Liiga and such is that AHL is a 'minor' league, the others aren't, at least not if you ask the players.

Sure, there's a some NHL drop outs, Kariya, King, Krog and others passing by on their way (back) to NHL. But their impact isn't that noticeable.

Actually, the lockout season when all teams where loaded with NHL talent, ended more or less like the season before, and the season after.

Wolfes and Indians battling it out.

I'm quite sure that j.random top team in SEL, SM Liiga or Extra Liga against j.random top team in AHL and the poor NA's will have their *** whipped, badly.

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09-19-2006, 05:33 PM
  #98
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Originally Posted by hdw View Post

I'm quite sure that j.random top team in SEL, SM Liiga or Extra Liga against j.random top team in AHL and the poor NA's will have their *** whipped, badly.

I just disagree with that, I think the top AHL teams more than hold their own against those teams.

Of course assuming that the AHL's best players haven't already all been promoted to the NHL club already, something the SEL doesn't have to worry about on a night in/night out basis.

I've seen both league's for a while and I don't think it's that far off. There are some top players in the SEL who could step right into the NHL, but there's also a lot of players who I think would struggle to make an AHL roster.

I think the SEL probably has a higher top end of talent, but I also think it has a lower bottom end as well. Personally I think there are a lot more players who'd struggle to be average AHL'ers than there are top end players who'd blow right by and into the NHL, even in the SEL.

I've rarely seen an average AHL'er who didn't go over to even the top European leagues who wasn't at least an average player in that league. Conversly I've seen far more average SEL or other top league players who were below average over here.

When an AHL player like say Brad Smyth goes over to those leagues they seem to be better players than if the SEL's version of Brad Smyth comes over into the AHL.

Again to me its more a matter of top-end/low-end. The AHL to me has a few less peaks and valleys than the top European Leagues (including SEL). That doesn't mean they don't exist, I just found them to be less dramatic in difference.

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09-19-2006, 05:54 PM
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I just disagree with that, I think the top AHL teams more than hold their own against those teams.
I've read and understood.

Let's agree to disagree until such a game can happen

But as you stated, AHL and SEL teams work under very different circumstances.
SEL teams lose their best players at then end of a season, AHL lose then anytime.

Another difference is that playing in AHL or NHL is a matter of prestige and a lot of money.
Moving from SEL to NHL is a new country, new language, new customs and bad food.

So while a lot of the kids in SEL wants to be in NHL, many of the older has been there and returned home, because the salary wasn't worth it.

I don't think you'll hear many players in AHL saying "nah, I'll stay here, feels more comfy".

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