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Marc Methot's value for a 1st round pick

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Old
04-30-2013, 07:45 PM
  #26
Jack de la Hoya
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The OP didn't make a lot of sense--it was a "Value of" thread with a particular proposal (DAL 2013 1st, 10th overall).

This feels like one of those threads that is actually designed to get other fans to appreciate a particular player. No one is giving up a top-10 pick for Methot, as impressive as he has been this year.

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04-30-2013, 07:49 PM
  #27
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If I was drafting later than 15th, I'd make that trade. Methot has been good this year in Ottawa.

If a guy like Paul Gaustad can yield a 1st round pick, I think it's safe to say someone would trade a 1st for Methot.

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04-30-2013, 07:50 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Sens Rule View Post
While I would not trade Methot at all. He is definitely worth a first round pick. First round picks after you get to 8th or 10th or so are overvalued on these boards. You get a legit top 4 or even top 2 defenceman... in his prime and signed. Very valuable.

I would trade him for one of the top 4 picks... only because you almost have to make the deal for that kind of value.
So you wouldn't trade Methot for the 5th overall in this draft... Good thing for your own sake you're not the GM of your team as you'd have to be bat**** crazy to refuse that deal for Marc Methot.

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04-30-2013, 07:56 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack de la Hoya View Post
The OP didn't make a lot of sense--it was a "Value of" thread with a particular proposal (DAL 2013 1st, 10th overall).

This feels like one of those threads that is actually designed to get other fans to appreciate a particular player. No one is giving up a top-10 pick for Methot, as impressive as he has been this year.
Was honestly my first thought as well.

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04-30-2013, 08:11 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by guyzeur View Post
But if a team would like to get a D, only Jones would go ahead of him in this draft IMO.
Based on risk and knowing what you're getting...of course. But guys like Ristolainen, Nurse, and Pulock have the potential to be franchise defenders. While you know what you are getting with Methot, the potential of a draft pick becoming the next Lidstrom or Weber(guys who weren't top draft picks) prevents deals like this from happening too often. At least deals involving top-15 or 20 picks.

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04-30-2013, 09:02 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by stempniaksen View Post
Probably a bit of a stretch, but I can assure you that he's a heck of a lot betteran than he was in Columbus. This is a guy that is hugely underrated around the league, great shutdown dman.
He was hugely underrated in Columbus, before he got hurt. Now, he is just underrated, but that seems to be changing, rather quickly.

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05-01-2013, 09:29 AM
  #32
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Again, there is no scenario in the world where the Sens would come out winners trading Methot for anything less than a top 3 pick. And seeing as how teams wouldn't do that, this thread is 100% moot.

Methot is a machine. Without him, we'd have been completely sunk this year. He plays whopping minutes, is a big hitter, blocks shots, is mobile and a great teammate.

There is no way Ottawa trades him for anything less than a huge overpayment.

EDIT: And people saying they wouldn't trade a 1st for him have no idea what they're talking about...at all.

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05-01-2013, 10:00 AM
  #33
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Originally Posted by SpezDispenser View Post
Again, there is no scenario in the world where the Sens would come out winners trading Methot for anything less than a top 3 pick. And seeing as how teams wouldn't do that, this thread is 100% moot.

Methot is a machine. Without him, we'd have been completely sunk this year. He plays whopping minutes, is a big hitter, blocks shots, is mobile and a great teammate.

There is no way Ottawa trades him for anything less than a huge overpayment.

EDIT: And people saying they wouldn't trade a 1st for him have no idea what they're talking about...at all.
You really don't understand why a team would rather just take Nurse or Ristolainen instead of trading their pick for Marc Methot?

1) Most teams with a pick high enough to get a prospect like Nurse/Ristolainen are probably a couple of years away. It would probably be a wiser move to take the 17/18 year old kid instead of the 27(28 in two months) year old veteran. A veteran they might only have control over for another two seasons.

2) While Methot is a solid top-4/borderline top-2, both Nurse/Ristolainen have higher upside than the level that Methot is at currently. While there's also the possiblity that neither of these guys come close to Methot's level, I could understand why a team trying to build a solid young core would take their chances with the prospect.

3) All teams love developing their own star players. Both Nurse and Ristolainen have that star potential.

4) No GM wants to be haunted by passing up a superstar in order to get just a solid player. If this were a trade involving OEL or Pietrangelo or Karlsson, you could live with it. Even if the pick hits their max upside, it doesn't matter. Methot though? If I'm a rebuilding team, I don't know if I'd take that chance.

I could see any pick in the 20-30 range being offered up for Methot without much hesitation. Maybe even in the 15-30 range. But any pick before that will probably give a GM a lot to think about. At least much more than you think it would.

Just curious, but do you think a team would easily offer up a top-15 pick for Andrew MacDonald? He's basically in the same type of boat as Methot. Around the same age and offensive production. Counted on to play around 30 minutes a night on the top-pairing of a playoff team. He's been extremely solid for the Islanders, but I have a hard time believing that they could get that kind of return.

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05-01-2013, 11:03 AM
  #34
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Haha the Flyers would never trade the 11th pick for Methot. He's everything what the Flyers don't need: another stay at home defensive dman. Flyers already have those players in Schenn and Grossmann.

Nurse, Ristolainen, Pulock are both much, much more intriguing to the Flyers because they all have much more offensive upside that Methot does. Methot is what he is at this stage.

Flyers say: lol no thanks.

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05-01-2013, 11:12 AM
  #35
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Originally Posted by Vsevolod Bobrov View Post
Montreal offers its 1st easily. Even add something.
Not with Beaulieu, Tinordi, Pateyrn and Ellis knocking on the door. We have a glut of defensemen, the last thing we need is to trade our first for an other as big and physical as he might be, unless we get some other assets in return for some of our other defensemen which won't happen.

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05-01-2013, 11:17 AM
  #36
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Methot is worth a late 1stish, you're all out to lunch. No one is going to give up a potential superstar for a top 4 D-man, specially not one without offensive upside.

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05-01-2013, 11:20 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by poetryinmotion View Post
Not with Beaulieu, Tinordi, Pateyrn and Ellis knocking on the door. We have a glut of defensemen, the last thing we need is to trade our first for an other as big and physical as he might be, unless we get some other assets in return for some of our other defensemen which won't happen.
If MON's pick is going to be in the 20s they should trade it for Methot, that is what they are missing is a big physical dman. Yes, you have good dmen prospects but they are that, prospects. Your team is not rebuilding but competing. What is going to help you more next year Methot or the pick. I would say Methot.

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05-01-2013, 11:35 AM
  #38
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I would say his value is around 10th.

He is a very good defenseman, so he is a guaranteed solid player in his prime. If he was 23-24 years old, it would go to a 5th or so.

A 10th is a reasonable risk. You get an MPS/Cowen/Ellis, Lee/Bourdon/Kopitar, Bailey/Beach/Hodgeson, Couture/Ellerby/Sutter kind of player in return.

Of those 12 you get a chance at a star, but same chance to strike out, the others are "similarish"

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05-01-2013, 11:35 AM
  #39
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Originally Posted by JuicyJ View Post
Unfortunately there's not a team in the NHL that gives up a top 10 pick for Marc Methot. Or a first in general.

And yes, I understand "That's fine, we'll keep him".
O rly? Good call...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vsevolod Bobrov View Post
Montreal offers its 1st easily. Even add something.
Quote:
Originally Posted by CanadienShark View Post
You're out to lunch. I'd give up Montreal's 1st for him.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyris View Post
Yea I wouldn't have a problem with the Leafs giving up their first for him on draft day unless someone like Sean Monahan somehow falls to us.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roo Mad Bro View Post
Haha the Flyers would never trade the 11th pick for Methot. He's everything what the Flyers don't need: another stay at home defensive dman. Flyers already have those players in Schenn and Grossmann.

Nurse, Ristolainen, Pulock are both much, much more intriguing to the Flyers because they all have much more offensive upside that Methot does. Methot is what he is at this stage.

Flyers say: lol no thanks.
News flash: when talking of value, specific team needs for those picks are not being referenced. While Methot would improve the Flyers D dramatically, I don't think anyone is surprised if you want to use a high pick to improve a big need.

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05-01-2013, 08:09 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by blinkman360 View Post
You really don't understand why a team would rather just take Nurse or Ristolainen instead of trading their pick for Marc Methot?

1) Most teams with a pick high enough to get a prospect like Nurse/Ristolainen are probably a couple of years away. It would probably be a wiser move to take the 17/18 year old kid instead of the 27(28 in two months) year old veteran. A veteran they might only have control over for another two seasons.

2) While Methot is a solid top-4/borderline top-2, both Nurse/Ristolainen have higher upside than the level that Methot is at currently. While there's also the possiblity that neither of these guys come close to Methot's level, I could understand why a team trying to build a solid young core would take their chances with the prospect.

3) All teams love developing their own star players. Both Nurse and Ristolainen have that star potential.

4) No GM wants to be haunted by passing up a superstar in order to get just a solid player. If this were a trade involving OEL or Pietrangelo or Karlsson, you could live with it. Even if the pick hits their max upside, it doesn't matter. Methot though? If I'm a rebuilding team, I don't know if I'd take that chance.

I could see any pick in the 20-30 range being offered up for Methot without much hesitation. Maybe even in the 15-30 range. But any pick before that will probably give a GM a lot to think about. At least much more than you think it would.

Just curious, but do you think a team would easily offer up a top-15 pick for Andrew MacDonald? He's basically in the same type of boat as Methot. Around the same age and offensive production. Counted on to play around 30 minutes a night on the top-pairing of a playoff team. He's been extremely solid for the Islanders, but I have a hard time believing that they could get that kind of return.
Obviously the higher the pick, the less likely the team is to make the transaction, but again, for the most part, Ottawa needs Methot, not a pick, no matter how talented it is. That was my whole point, the Sens would need a team to really overpay badly in order to part - and opposing teams would never do that.

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05-01-2013, 08:15 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by Wondercarrot View Post
There is a reason Team Canada is going to be inviting him to camp.
Methot would play in almost any top pairing in the league.

You dont trade that for a chintzy mid 1st rounder, and again i wouldnt trade that for anything outside of the top 3 in this draft.
Says who?

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05-02-2013, 08:54 AM
  #42
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After thinking about it, I've come to the conclusion that even if Methot's value (or any similar type of player) should be about a 10th overall, teams that would require this type of player would not trade a high draft pick in this situation.

The only trade that could happen would be for a roster player, you know like in a old time hockey trade: a forward for a defense swap.

Methot's value would be worth more to the Sens that to Philly in this case. Because Sens have PMD while Philly have Methot's type of D, Schenn for example. Lets not going into who is worth more between Schenn and Methot please, hopefully you get the idea.

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05-02-2013, 09:56 AM
  #43
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Says who? (re. olympic camp invite)
http://www.ottawasun.com/2013/04/18/...sochi-olympics

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05-02-2013, 10:07 AM
  #44
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Originally Posted by blinkman360 View Post
You really don't understand why a team would rather just take Nurse or Ristolainen instead of trading their pick for Marc Methot?

1) Most teams with a pick high enough to get a prospect like Nurse/Ristolainen are probably a couple of years away. It would probably be a wiser move to take the 17/18 year old kid instead of the 27(28 in two months) year old veteran. A veteran they might only have control over for another two seasons.

2) While Methot is a solid top-4/borderline top-2, both Nurse/Ristolainen have higher upside than the level that Methot is at currently. While there's also the possiblity that neither of these guys come close to Methot's level, I could understand why a team trying to build a solid young core would take their chances with the prospect.

3) All teams love developing their own star players. Both Nurse and Ristolainen have that star potential.

4) No GM wants to be haunted by passing up a superstar in order to get just a solid player. If this were a trade involving OEL or Pietrangelo or Karlsson, you could live with it. Even if the pick hits their max upside, it doesn't matter. Methot though? If I'm a rebuilding team, I don't know if I'd take that chance.

I could see any pick in the 20-30 range being offered up for Methot without much hesitation. Maybe even in the 15-30 range. But any pick before that will probably give a GM a lot to think about. At least much more than you think it would.

Just curious, but do you think a team would easily offer up a top-15 pick for Andrew MacDonald? He's basically in the same type of boat as Methot. Around the same age and offensive production. Counted on to play around 30 minutes a night on the top-pairing of a playoff team. He's been extremely solid for the Islanders, but I have a hard time believing that they could get that kind of return.
If there was a competitive team looking to improve their defense then I see no reason they wouldn't give a 10-15 pick for MacDonald or Methot.

The problem is that most teams picking in that situation are rebuilding and would prefer the riskier choice of developing the pick and potentially having them longer and at better value.

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05-02-2013, 11:24 AM
  #45
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I do think Methot has played as a top pairing D for Ottawa and he's done so even without Karlsson. The question is not what Ottawa thinks he's worth but what teams seeking a top pairing D think he's worth.

If a team was willing to move a top 10 pick for a top pairing D, would Methot be the best available (I don't think he's available) D out there? Where would Methot rank in the company of Markov, Beauchemin, Phaneuf, to name a few?

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05-02-2013, 02:47 PM
  #46
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I wouldn't trade our #13 for him. Even though he's exactly what the Jets need to pair with Bogo. If we were a close to contending team and our pick was 20-25, I would absolutely do it. But we still need to build through the draft with our first rounders for a few more years.

Our 1st plus Postma for Methot and a youngish legit top 2/3 RW tweener would be very interesting...

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05-02-2013, 02:54 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by SpezDispenser View Post
Again, there is no scenario in the world where the Sens would come out winners trading Methot for anything less than a top 3 pick. And seeing as how teams wouldn't do that, this thread is 100% moot.

Methot is a machine. Without him, we'd have been completely sunk this year. He plays whopping minutes, is a big hitter, blocks shots, is mobile and a great teammate.

There is no way Ottawa trades him for anything less than a huge overpayment.

EDIT: And people saying they wouldn't trade a 1st for him have no idea what they're talking about...at all.
Unless you're talking about the very short term, that's quite a ridiculous thing to say.

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05-02-2013, 03:00 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by SenateReform View Post
If there was a competitive team looking to improve their defense then I see no reason they wouldn't give a 10-15 pick for MacDonald or Methot.

The problem is that most teams picking in that situation are rebuilding and would prefer the riskier choice of developing the pick and potentially having them longer and at better value.
Jets have 13th pick overall. Honestly, after doing the research i have on draft pick development etc, and looking at team construction/timelines, i'd trade a winnipegs 1st for Methot even in this "deep" year.

Timeline and Need wise it just fits perfect for us IMO.


Also, first round picks are overvalued in a brutal way- that being said, if ever their was a year they are even close to proper value it would be this one, provided you believe the hype.

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05-02-2013, 04:13 PM
  #49
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Jets have 13th pick overall. Honestly, after doing the research i have on draft pick development etc, and looking at team construction/timelines, i'd trade a winnipegs 1st for Methot even in this "deep" year.

Timeline and Need wise it just fits perfect for us IMO.


Also, first round picks are overvalued in a brutal way- that being said, if ever their was a year they are even close to proper value it would be this one, provided you believe the hype.
I'm doubtful Chevy does this. And again, I'd lean away from it as per my above post. But... I gotta say, the thought of a Methot & Bogo pairing makes me giddy. We'd have one of the best "2nd pairing" of Dmen in the game and makes us a legit playoff contender in the defensive minded new Central division.

But I'm not sure why Ottawa would move him for any price. He's such a great anchor for their D.

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05-02-2013, 04:41 PM
  #50
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Originally Posted by Vander Teemuchuk View Post
I'm doubtful Chevy does this. And again, I'd lean away from it as per my above post. But... I gotta say, the thought of a Methot & Bogo pairing makes me giddy. We'd have one of the best "2nd pairing" of Dmen in the game and makes us a legit playoff contender in the defensive minded new Central division.

But I'm not sure why Ottawa would move him for any price. He's such a great anchor for their D.

picks int he 10-15 range in an average year have only 45% of developing into a top six player.

that player would also be at minimum 3 years away.

Based on the jets current makeup, i'd argue a borderline first pairing LHD dman right now is worth more to the jets then a 50% chance of a top 6 forward/dman in three years.

when you look at cup winning teams they're usually built in a similar way, a core of expensive players in the mid 20's to early 30's, supplemented by good depth lines sporting young players playing high above their pay rate (usually in the final year or two of an ELC or in a "bridge" contract).

If we have any hope of winning with Ladd Little Wheeler Buff and Enstrom as our "expensive 26-32 yearolds" we need to make the playoffs next year and compete fore the two-three years following. Methot increases those chances exponentially better then hoping a draft pick can.


If we're valuing the draft pick above methot, we should in actuallity be selling off ladd wheeler little enstrom and byfuglien, as we'd be in pure rebuild mode (which logically we should not be in)

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