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2013 Draft Thread (Part 2) #8, 16, 38, 55, 69, (94), 129, 130, (155), 159, 189

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Old
05-02-2013, 09:58 AM
  #876
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Originally Posted by Darcy Regier View Post
People called it after Bobby Mac list came out, he was way ahead of the curve along with Jankowski
Reports I saw were mixed. Most had him still around top 5, and a few had him in the teens.

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05-02-2013, 10:23 AM
  #877
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First time poster here!

I'm not as comfortable as everyone else seems to be regarding our future in goal. Shouldn't Fucale warrant some serious consideration with the Minn pick considering our lack of depth, even with Hackett? Correct me if I'm wrong but Enroth/Hackett/Markov seem to have limited upside; indeed, none of them might ever even turn out to be above average NHL starter material.

And if we do decide that we need a goalie, wouldn't it be better to draft one earlier than later since they take the longest to develop? In this case, a first round pick this year instead of next year, when we ostensibly will have another two or three first rounders as a result of the Vanek/Miller trades?

We basically need upgrades everywhere, except for hard-working, talented third-liners, which we have a nice array of, so it's hard to decide on how to spend those first rounders.

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05-02-2013, 10:27 AM
  #878
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Originally Posted by Prishpreed View Post
First time poster here!

I'm not as comfortable as everyone else seems to be regarding our future in goal. Shouldn't Fucale warrant some serious consideration with the Minn pick considering our lack of depth, even with Hackett? Correct me if I'm wrong but Enroth/Hackett/Markov seem to have limited upside; indeed, none of them might ever even turn out to be above average NHL starter material.

And if we do decide that we need a goalie, wouldn't it be better to draft one earlier than later since they take the longest to develop? In this case, a first round pick this year instead of next year, when we ostensibly will have another two or three first rounders as a result of the Vanek/Miller trades?

We basically need upgrades everywhere, except for hard-working, talented third-liners, which we have a nice array of, so it's hard to decide on how to spend those first rounders.
goalie is the easiest position to fill... I would never waste a high draft pick on one.

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05-02-2013, 10:37 AM
  #879
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goalie is the easiest position to fill... I would never waste a high draft pick on one.
It doesn't seem to be super easy for some teams...for a reasonable cap it, at least. Islanders, Oilers, Tampa, Florida and a few others have stuggled for a few years now in goal. Florida has some promise now, only because they used a high pick on one (#31).

I will defer to people with more knowledge on goal tending though - I was just wondering why it would be so crazy to consider. Plenty of non-Buffalo people are predicting us taking him second due to the need.

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05-02-2013, 10:37 AM
  #880
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goalie is the easiest position to fill... I would never waste a high draft pick on one.
I agree with Jame here. High first round draft pick goalies don't tend to be worth it, historically. We've seen a distinct shift away from them league-wide in the last 10 years. Picking a goalie in the middle rounds to stash for two-three years down the line? Sure.

Hackett (one year of waiver eligibility)
Makarov
Ullmark (signed for 2 more years in the SEL)

That's not a bad trio of prospect netminders at the moment.

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05-02-2013, 10:39 AM
  #881
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Originally Posted by Prishpreed View Post
It doesn't seem to be super easy for some teams...for a reasonable cap it, at least. Islanders, Oilers, Tampa, Florida and a few others have stuggled for a few years now in goal. Florida has some promise now, only because they used a high pick on one (#31).

I will defer to people with more knowledge on goal tending though - I was just wondering why it would be so crazy to consider. Plenty of non-Buffalo people are predicting us taking him second due to the need.
The NHL.com guys have Buffalo taking a goalie or a puck moving defenseman almost every single year for about 5 years worth of mock drafts. At this point, I wonder if they just keep saying it to eventually be right.

And welcome aboard. Like I mentioned above, I think they'll look for an 18-year old for the pipeline. I don't think they do it with their first three picks.

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05-02-2013, 10:51 AM
  #882
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Originally Posted by Prishpreed View Post
It doesn't seem to be super easy for some teams...for a reasonable cap it, at least. Islanders, Oilers, Tampa, Florida and a few others have stuggled for a few years now in goal. Florida has some promise now, only because they used a high pick on one (#31).

I will defer to people with more knowledge on goal tending though - I was just wondering why it would be so crazy to consider. Plenty of non-Buffalo people are predicting us taking him second due to the need.
Those team's need to build a deeper forward core, and a blueline... and then POOF they won't have a goaltending issue...

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05-02-2013, 03:09 PM
  #883
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Serious question, especially for posters like jfb392, etc., who seem to have some "real-world" (non-fan) role in youth/junior player evaluations, etc.

Do scouts, etc., assess the non-hockey aspects of a draft-worthy prospect, especially the top ~30-50 players? And do NHL teams consider that stuff strongly?

Some examples:
1. If one of the top 10 or so players had "Lindros-like-parents", is that discussed/published, or kept on the down-low?

2. Given increasing scientific support for a genetic / hereditary component for a non-trivial percentage of alcoholism and substance abuse cases, do scouts / scouting services dig deeply into parent's lives to know what might be under the surface, and if there is a risk / propensity for a potential draft pick?

My belief is the NFL and NBA don't consider that stuff too significantly because the draftees are older, many of them have illegitimate children, and/or alcohol / drug / discipline incidents (University, civil police, etc.) in the public record.

But I don't know what the NHL does. For youth hockey/juniors I know there are billet families. But players taken in the NHL draft are a few years younger than NFL players, and a couple years younger than NBA players. So I assume there is less of a read on their (hockey prospect's) independent tendencies.

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05-02-2013, 03:10 PM
  #884
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Originally Posted by Prishpreed View Post
First time poster here!

I'm not as comfortable as everyone else seems to be regarding our future in goal. Shouldn't Fucale warrant some serious consideration with the Minn pick considering our lack of depth, even with Hackett? Correct me if I'm wrong but Enroth/Hackett/Markov seem to have limited upside; indeed, none of them might ever even turn out to be above average NHL starter material.

And if we do decide that we need a goalie, wouldn't it be better to draft one earlier than later since they take the longest to develop? In this case, a first round pick this year instead of next year, when we ostensibly will have another two or three first rounders as a result of the Vanek/Miller trades?

We basically need upgrades everywhere, except for hard-working, talented third-liners, which we have a nice array of, so it's hard to decide on how to spend those first rounders.
Golaies are SOOO hard to predict.

there have been only 5 goalies selected in the 1st round who panned out into anyone worthwhile. Tom Barasso by the Sabres was one, Marc-Andre Fleury was another one.

Teams hust wait until rounds 3-5 to draft goalies. Sometimes a goalie could slip into the 2nd round.

Miller was a 5th round pick.

Hasak--I dont think he was even drafted.

The teams focus on other positions in rounds 1-3.

fucale could be picked in the bottom part of the 1st or the fist half of the 2nd.

If Buffalo was interested---I'd just wait and see if he was around near when ST Louis pick would be in the 2nd and try and pick him there. They could move up a few spots by throwing in a 4th/5th form ST Louis to move up to take him alittle earlier in the round.

The other thing with goalies that makes this so hard is because theys usually do not develop into something until they are 24 or older....thus they could be a 5-7 yr project before you see anything from it---and in all teams not named bufalo by then there is new GM.

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05-02-2013, 03:13 PM
  #885
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Originally Posted by brian_griffin View Post
Serious question, especially for posters like jfb392, etc., who seem to have some "real-world" (non-fan) role in youth/junior player evaluations, etc.

Do scouts, etc., assess the non-hockey aspects of a draft-worthy prospect, especially the top ~30-50 players? And do NHL teams consider that stuff strongly?

Some examples:
1. If one of the top 10 or so players had "Lindros-like-parents", is that discussed/published, or kept on the down-low?

2. Given increasing scientific support for a genetic / hereditary component for a non-trivial percentage of alcoholism and substance abuse cases, do scouts / scouting services dig deeply into parent's lives to know what might be under the surface, and if there is a risk / propensity for a potential draft pick?

My belief is the NFL and NBA don't consider that stuff too significantly because the draftees are older, many of them have illegitimate children, and/or alcohol / drug / discipline incidents (University, civil police, etc.) in the public record.

But I don't know what the NHL does. For youth hockey/juniors I know there are billet families. But players taken in the NHL draft are a few years younger than NFL players, and a couple years younger than NBA players. So I assume there is less of a read on their (hockey prospect's) independent tendencies.
all teams look at charachter/off the field issues in a player. its really hard in the NHL (and in baseball) because maturity isnt there yet....so its hard to predict how the kid will turn out in 5 yrs.

People do alot of maturing during this 18-23 yr old time span.

another factor that needs to be evaluated---how would money affect them?

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05-02-2013, 03:28 PM
  #886
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One thing I really like about this draft is the top 7-8 guys are known to be very hard workers

Elias Lindholm fits what Buffalo needs to a T, versatile forward who plays both hands and is extremly gifted offensively, If all goes well he could have a Giroux type impact.

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05-02-2013, 03:36 PM
  #887
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Originally Posted by Djp View Post
Golaies are SOOO hard to predict.

there have been only 5 goalies selected in the 1st round who panned out into anyone worthwhile. Tom Barasso by the Sabres was one, Marc-Andre Fleury was another one.

Teams hust wait until rounds 3-5 to draft goalies. Sometimes a goalie could slip into the 2nd round.

Miller was a 5th round pick.

Hasak--I dont think he was even drafted.

The teams focus on other positions in rounds 1-3.

fucale could be picked in the bottom part of the 1st or the fist half of the 2nd.

If Buffalo was interested---I'd just wait and see if he was around near when ST Louis pick would be in the 2nd and try and pick him there. They could move up a few spots by throwing in a 4th/5th form ST Louis to move up to take him alittle earlier in the round.

The other thing with goalies that makes this so hard is because theys usually do not develop into something until they are 24 or older....thus they could be a 5-7 yr project before you see anything from it---and in all teams not named bufalo by then there is new GM.
Thanks for all the insight guys! Makes a lot of sense. I'm on board with this line of thinking (kind of a new fan of hockey the last few years).

It actually seems like the difference between an "elite" goalie and an average goalie, save percentage-wise, is only a few goals allowed per week, give or take, which doesn't seem like it should make or break a team. If every goalie had the same team in front of them, I have a feeling the difference would be tough to measure in NHL.

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05-02-2013, 04:05 PM
  #888
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Originally Posted by Darcy Regier View Post
One thing I really like about this draft is the top 7-8 guys are known to be very hard workers

Elias Lindholm fits what Buffalo needs to a T, versatile forward who plays both hands and is extremly gifted offensively, If all goes well he could have a Giroux type impact.
That's what I like about Hunter Shinkaruk too, though he usually is usually considered as a 9-13 guy. He's seems a bit cocky but he makes sure he's the hardest working guy at practice every single day, according to his coach.

I'm trying to get used to him since I have a feeling he might be our first pick if the first 7 go as many are predicting (I strongly feel DR won't take Nichushkin at 8 under any circumstance).

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05-02-2013, 04:14 PM
  #889
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Originally Posted by Prishpreed View Post
That's what I like about Hunter Shinkaruk too, though he usually is usually considered as a 9-13 guy. He's seems a bit cocky but he makes sure he's the hardest working guy at practice every single day, according to his coach.

I'm trying to get used to him since I have a feeling he might be our first pick if the first 7 go as many are predicting (I strongly feel DR won't take Nichushkin at 8 under any circumstance).
He's also the captain of Medicine Hat, and I don't think it'd hurt to add another kid with some leadership qualities/potential. I'd be very happy to get him at 8 and then go for a more of a two-way guy at 16, a la Grigs and Girgs last year.

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05-02-2013, 04:15 PM
  #890
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I'm trying to get used to him since I have a feeling he might be our first pick if the first 7 go as many are predicting (I strongly feel DR won't take Nichushkin at 8 under any circumstance).
That was the old Darcy (no Russian picked for how long?).

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05-02-2013, 04:20 PM
  #891
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That was the old Darcy (no Russian picked for how long?).
We also spent 2 of our most recent first rounders on risky-projecting European forwards. Can't see Regier making a habit of doing that every year, especially not in the top 10. At 12, there's no reason not to take a risk on the highest upside player left on the board. But there will be other high qualitiy options where we're picking this year with a deep crop. IMO, Shinkaruk has as much offensive upside as any forward outside of the big 3 this year.

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05-02-2013, 04:43 PM
  #892
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Originally Posted by Djp View Post
Golaies are SOOO hard to predict.

there have been only 5 goalies selected in the 1st round who panned out into anyone worthwhile. Tom Barasso by the Sabres was one, Marc-Andre Fleury was another one.

Teams hust wait until rounds 3-5 to draft goalies. Sometimes a goalie could slip into the 2nd round.

Miller was a 5th round pick.

Hasak--I dont think he was even drafted.
What is your definition of panned out as there's been a lot more than 5 drafted in the 1st round that have 'panned' out. I mean Martin Brodeur had a sort of successful career and he only went in the 1st round. The league is full of 1st round goalies that have played more than decent this year...ie panned out: Luongo, Carey Price, Cam Ward, Keri Lehtonen etc. Fucale isn't that outstanding of a prospect to warrant the 8th overall selection, but could be in consideration with one of the 2nd rounders.

Hasek wasn't drafted due to the world situation when he was 18 ie...the Iron Curtain and players not escaping.

The simple fact of the matter is that you're drafting an 18yo kid so its hard to project how they'll pan out. Unless a goalie is a true standout then it doesn't make sense to use a pick on him and see who you can get a bit later.

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05-02-2013, 05:21 PM
  #893
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Quote:
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there have been only 5 goalies selected in the 1st round who panned out into anyone worthwhile. Tom Barasso by the Sabres was one, Marc-Andre Fleury was another one.
There's GOTTA be a word or phrase missing from this sentence.

There have been a LOT more than 5 goalies that have been selected in the first round that have panned out.

I'll list just the drafts from the 90s:

Martin Brodeur
Jocelyn Thibault (was a solid G for a while)
J-S Giguere
Luongo


So that's 4 first-round goalies from the 90s that have done just fine for themselves.

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05-02-2013, 05:21 PM
  #894
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Originally Posted by tsujimoto74 View Post
He's also the captain of Medicine Hat, and I don't think it'd hurt to add another kid with some leadership qualities/potential. I'd be very happy to get him at 8 and then go for a more of a two-way guy at 16, a la Grigs and Girgs last year.
Shinkaruk and Horvat?

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05-02-2013, 05:50 PM
  #895
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Shinkaruk and Horvat?
Would
What about someone like Gauthier? Haven't heard much about him lately, but he's got size, and has gotten praise for his defensive smarts and skates very well for a big man.

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05-02-2013, 05:52 PM
  #896
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Would
What about someone like Gauthier? Haven't heard much about him lately, but he's got size, and has gotten praise for his defensive smarts and skates very well for a big man.
I like Gauthier if he's there at 16. That size and defensive ability with a growing offensive game? Very appealing.

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05-02-2013, 06:17 PM
  #897
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We also spent 2 of our most recent first rounders on risky-projecting European forwards. Can't see Regier making a habit of doing that every year, especially not in the top 10. At 12, there's no reason not to take a risk on the highest upside player left on the board. But there will be other high qualitiy options where we're picking this year with a deep crop. IMO, Shinkaruk has as much offensive upside as any forward outside of the big 3 this year.
If all goes well for Shinkaruk he can have a Derek Roy career, although I don't know that he ever hits 80 points.

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05-02-2013, 06:49 PM
  #898
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goalie is the easiest position to fill... I would never waste a high draft pick on one.
I still would like to see if we can pry Bernier out of LA when/if Miller heads out. Then go with Bernier/Enroth for the next two years until Hackett looks ready at which Ulmark should be ready to go in Rochester.

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05-02-2013, 07:00 PM
  #899
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Taking a goalie in the first round is poor asset management imo. You can find goalies later on in the draft

I am still one who very much prefers to take forwards in the 1st.

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05-02-2013, 07:07 PM
  #900
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Here's a question no one has seemed to have asked.

If Nichushkin is available with the Minnesota pick, would you consider taking him? Not that I foresee him dropping that far, but it's certainly possible when you consider the uncertainty surrounding him.

One of the issues I have with this team is the lack of elite skating wingers, and outside of Catenacci (Who is also capable of playing center, but consensus thinking is that he's better suited to the wing at the next level) the cupboards are bare.

Would a Shinkaruk/Nichushkin first round interest anyone? It would address the need (Granted, my perceived 'need') for dynamic skill and speed on the outside.

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