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Winnipeg Jets Prospect Thread 2012-13 (Part IV)

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Old
05-01-2013, 08:05 PM
  #201
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Congrats Adam. Look forward to you wearing a Jets jersey.

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05-01-2013, 08:35 PM
  #202
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Like Gump and I were saying before he joined the IceCaps, he'll be with the Jets before too long. He'll put on a bit of weight maybe (he's already 6'5 205) and he'll be even more of a beast. He was already good in the corners and on the body in the AHL.

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05-01-2013, 08:38 PM
  #203
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He also had a 20% shooting percentage. Next year should tell us how good he really is...
He will be waiver eligible next year.

Can't see him clearing next year.

Tanger-Burmi-O'Dell?

EDIT

I agree that the percentages are wacky though. Ideally he'd probably get another year to develop, but I don't think it is in the cards.


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05-02-2013, 12:06 PM
  #204
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Originally Posted by Hammer Slammer View Post
Like Gump and I were saying before he joined the IceCaps, he'll be with the Jets before too long. He'll put on a bit of weight maybe (he's already 6'5 205) and he'll be even more of a beast. He was already good in the corners and on the body in the AHL.
Yep. He weighed into the season in Swift Current at 201 and weighed into St. John's at season end at 205 - after the physical toll of playing roughly 90 games during that period. In St. John's he was already effectively competing against men at 205; he was by no means out of his element there from a physical perspective. He should be able to add additional weight this off-season with weight training and supplement use. It wouldn't surprise me to see him show up at training camp weighing 215/220 when one takes into consideration both his massive frame and his ability to gain weight during this past hockey season. Most players lose a lot of weight during a long season, but this kid is still growing.

Some knock his skating and, yeah, it was a concern at 17 but is also something he has regularly worked on and he was more than able to keep the pace in the A. Others knock his draft position as being indicative of future upside, but that view discounts his upward progression from that point; he was drafted in the third round because he was a skinny kid who'd yet to fill out, at that point he looked like a spider, was all arms and legs. I'm going to say it right now, he will be the surprise of training camp this fall and will compete hard for a spot. People are already expecting big things from Trouba and Scheifele; Lowry is my dark horse pick to surprise many this fall with how seamlessly he will transition his play against men at the NHL level. He might not make it right out of camp, but he is a lot closer than many seemingly can grasp.

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05-02-2013, 12:41 PM
  #205
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Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
Yep. He weighed into the season in Swift Current at 201 and weighed into St. John's at season end at 205 - after the physical toll of playing roughly 90 games during that period. In St. John's he was already effectively competing against men at 205; he was by no means out of his element there from a physical perspective. He should be able to add additional weight this off-season with weight training and supplement use. It wouldn't surprise me to see him show up at training camp weighing 215/220 when one takes into consideration both his massive frame and his ability to gain weight during this past hockey season. Most players lose a lot of weight during a long season, but this kid is still growing.

Some knock his skating and, yeah, it was a concern at 17 but is also something he has regularly worked on and he was more than able to keep the pace in the A. Others knock his draft position as being indicative of future upside, but that view discounts his upward progression from that point; he was drafted in the third round because he was a skinny kid who'd yet to fill out, at that point he looked like a spider, was all arms and legs. I'm going to say it right now, he will be the surprise of training camp this fall and will compete hard for a spot. People are already expecting big things from Trouba and Scheifele; Lowry is my dark horse pick to surprise many this fall with how seamlessly he will transition his play against men at the NHL level. He might not make it right out of camp, but he is a lot closer than many seemingly can grasp.
He definitely has a shot.

That said, I don't mind them slow playing him if it helps stabilize him as a centre long term.

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05-02-2013, 01:22 PM
  #206
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Keep in mind that points scored at 19 in junior mean far less than those scored younger for NHL projections.
Check this for reference:
http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php

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05-02-2013, 02:03 PM
  #207
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Originally Posted by supahdupah View Post
Keep in mind that points scored at 19 in junior mean far less than those scored younger for NHL projections.
Check this for reference:
http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php
Absolutely correct, sd. Lowry seems to have a lot of potential, but his junior productivity wasn't that impressive. We have to also be a bit careful in projecting Scheifele's current success, since this is two years after his draft year. That's why I think that Trouba's performance is more impressive in terms of his future potential.

For the draft, I think it is also relevant to consider the age of the player. A player like Anthony Mantha looks much better than someone like Jason Dickinson, but he is almost 10 months older, which is almost a full season. When you compare Mantha's 17 year old season to Dickinson's, they don't look that different.

Mantha: 67 GP, 22G, 29A, 51PTS (+21)
Dickinson: 66 GP, 18G, 29A, 47PTS (+19)

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05-02-2013, 02:05 PM
  #208
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Originally Posted by supahdupah View Post
Keep in mind that points scored at 19 in junior mean far less than those scored younger for NHL projections.
Check this for reference:
http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php
Lowry was twig-sized at 16/17 though and was injured basically his entire 18 y/o season (hurt his wrist 3 games in and played 1/2 of the season injured until the injury was properly diagnosed, then lost the balance of the year to surgery), so I'm unsure if past performance can be used as guide to future results in this case - given those specific and unique circumstances. This is a kid that managed 1 ppg at 18... while playing with a broken wrist.

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05-02-2013, 02:12 PM
  #209
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Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
Absolutely correct, sd. Lowry seems to have a lot of potential, but his junior productivity wasn't that impressive. We have to also be a bit careful in projecting Scheifele's current success, since this is two years after his draft year. That's why I think that Trouba's performance is more impressive in terms of his future potential.

For the draft, I think it is also relevant to consider the age of the player. A player like Anthony Mantha looks much better than someone like Jason Dickinson, but he is almost 10 months older, which is almost a full season. When you compare Mantha's 17 year old season to Dickinson's, they don't look that different.

Mantha: 67 GP, 22G, 29A, 51PTS (+21)
Dickinson: 66 GP, 18G, 29A, 47PTS (+19)
There was some study posted a few months back about that very thing. Relatively older players are routinely drafted ahead of the younger ones.

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05-02-2013, 02:26 PM
  #210
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Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
Lowry was twig-sized at 16/17 though and was injured basically his entire 18 y/o season (hurt his wrist 3 games in and played 1/2 of the season injured until the injury was properly diagnosed, then lost the balance of the year to surgery), so I'm unsure if past performance can be used as guide to future results in this case - given those specific and unique circumstances. This is a kid that managed 1 ppg at 18... while playing with a broken wrist.
Just to add to that a bit Lowry had Mono early in his draft year he said that really slowed him down for the rest of the year he said he still felt really weak even after he came back I'm sure he would have gone a lot higher in the draft if that wasn't the case.

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05-02-2013, 02:28 PM
  #211
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There was some study posted a few months back about that very thing. Relatively older players are routinely drafted ahead of the younger ones.
It's one of the reasons I'm not as excited about a player like Mantha as some are.

Nathan Mackinnon is a very late birthday (September) for this draft class. If he was born a few weeks later he would have been in the 2014 draft. Seth Jones was almost eligible for last year's draft (2012).

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05-02-2013, 02:36 PM
  #212
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I've never seen his danglies but I'm sure they're very impressive.

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I am only going by reputation. One day....

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05-02-2013, 02:43 PM
  #213
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Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
It's one of the reasons I'm not as excited about a player like Mantha as some are.

Nathan Mackinnon is a very late birthday (September) for this draft class. If he was born a few weeks later he would have been in the 2014 draft. Seth Jones was almost eligible for last year's draft (2012).
Yup! In the top three this year i'd almost go as far as taking either Mckinnon or Barkov over jones (basing this purely on third party evidence and not factoring in vieweings). They've put up exceptional numbers and are literally days away from being in next years draft.

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05-02-2013, 02:50 PM
  #214
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Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
It's one of the reasons I'm not as excited about a player like Mantha as some are.

Nathan Mackinnon is a very late birthday (September) for this draft class. If he was born a few weeks later he would have been in the 2014 draft. Seth Jones was almost eligible for last year's draft (2012).
Teuvo Teravainen was in that boat last year and he was already playing well against men.

Not sure how he slipped so far.

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05-02-2013, 03:07 PM
  #215
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Originally Posted by Zhamnov10 View Post
Just to add to that a bit Lowry had Mono early in his draft year he said that really slowed him down for the rest of the year he said he still felt really weak even after he came back I'm sure he would have gone a lot higher in the draft if that wasn't the case.
Exactly correct, had forgotten that. Great point.

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05-02-2013, 03:55 PM
  #216
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Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
It's one of the reasons I'm not as excited about a player like Mantha as some are.

Nathan Mackinnon is a very late birthday (September) for this draft class. If he was born a few weeks later he would have been in the 2014 draft. Seth Jones was almost eligible for last year's draft (2012).
Also I know Jones is consensus #1 on most lists now but I would be "REALLY" nervous taking a defenseman #1 overall.

going back to 1982 here is a list of the great success stories of 1st overall D picks

Gord Kluzak
Roman Hamrlik
Ed Jovo cop
Bryan Berard
Chris Phillips
Erik Johnson

just saying......30 years and counting

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05-02-2013, 04:06 PM
  #217
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Also I know Jones is consensus #1 on most lists now but I would be "REALLY" nervous taking a defenseman #1 overall.

going back to 1982 here is a list of the great success stories of 1st overall D picks

Gord Kluzak
Roman Hamrlik
Ed Jovo cop
Bryan Berard
Chris Phillips
Erik Johnson

just saying......30 years and counting
Well hopefully our future divisional rival has to deal with a similar set back.

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05-02-2013, 04:08 PM
  #218
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Originally Posted by ps241 View Post
Also I know Jones is consensus #1 on most lists now but I would be "REALLY" nervous taking a defenseman #1 overall.

going back to 1982 here is a list of the great success stories of 1st overall D picks

Gord Kluzak
Roman Hamrlik
Ed Jovo cop
Bryan Berard
Chris Phillips
Erik Johnson

just saying......30 years and counting
add in that if he were born a few days later and he'd have been in last years draft and i definitly pass on jones.

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05-02-2013, 04:27 PM
  #219
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I wonder how much scouts and teams look at these things? You know some are, but I get the feeling many GM's ignore these things.

Lowry might very well have extenuating circumstances, but a lot of 19 year old players have big years. There are exceptions, look at Tanner Pearson. He goes undrafted to first round to really good rookie season in the AHL. Scheifele might also have an exception to this; his draft year was his rookie year in the OHL.

I think Malcom Gladwell talks about early vs late birthdays in sports.

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05-02-2013, 04:45 PM
  #220
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Originally Posted by supahdupah View Post
I wonder how much scouts and teams look at these things? You know some are, but I get the feeling many GM's ignore these things.

Lowry might very well have extenuating circumstances, but a lot of 19 year old players have big years. There are exceptions, look at Tanner Pearson. He goes undrafted to first round to really good rookie season in the AHL. Scheifele might also have an exception to this; his draft year was his rookie year in the OHL.

I think Malcom Gladwell talks about early vs late birthdays in sports.
loved that study. I actually looked up the original research and stuff, it's fascinating.


Malcom gladwells a good starting point for this stuff, you have to be careful as he seems to come across as a little more academic then he actually is, but he's definitely great for introducing these sorts of concepts.

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05-02-2013, 05:28 PM
  #221
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loved that study. I actually looked up the original research and stuff, it's fascinating.


Malcom gladwells a good starting point for this stuff, you have to be careful as he seems to come across as a little more academic then he actually is, but he's definitely great for introducing these sorts of concepts.
Yeah, he's not an academic.

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05-02-2013, 06:07 PM
  #222
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Originally Posted by ps241 View Post
Also I know Jones is consensus #1 on most lists now but I would be "REALLY" nervous taking a defenseman #1 overall.

going back to 1982 here is a list of the great success stories of 1st overall D picks

Gord Kluzak
Roman Hamrlik
Ed Jovo cop
Bryan Berard
Chris Phillips
Erik Johnson

just saying......30 years and counting
I never watched Kluzak, but the rest, although not worthy of #1 picks, had pretty solid careers (considering what Berard's career was before Hossa poked out his eye), and were top 4 dmen on their teams during their primes.

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05-02-2013, 07:40 PM
  #223
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So just how good is Lowry now? If he was in this years draft where would he go?

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05-02-2013, 07:56 PM
  #224
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Originally Posted by Shakey Rustie View Post
I never watched Kluzak, but the rest, although not worthy of #1 picks, had pretty solid careers (considering what Berard's career was before Hossa poked out his eye), and were top 4 dmen on their teams during their primes.
100% correct Shakey most of the guys were decent top 4 but none of them were near 1st overall impact players and it appears there in lies the challenge. I think it is tougher to forecast 18 year old defensman with elite ceilings especially offesnivley as in future Norris candidates? Not sure why....maybe it's the position.

It's almost like the closer you get to the net the foggier the crystal ball gets.

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05-03-2013, 01:49 AM
  #225
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So just how good is Lowry now? If he was in this years draft where would he go?
If Lowry was do be drafted in this year's draft, I would expect him to go in the 1st round. He had similar stats to Tanner Pearson as a 20 year old and Tanner went 30th overall. Lowry however has the athletic pedigree from his father and is a much bigger player which usually holds more value.

I think Lowry is probably a good 3rd/4th line player right now for the Jets, but I think some time in the AHL will server him better and potentially show if he can mature into a top 6 role.

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