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Mirtle: Leafs’ central weakness exposed by Bruins

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Old
05-02-2013, 07:58 PM
  #26
Stephen
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Originally Posted by LeafOfBread View Post
It's a personnel issue. When the defense is fixed, which I presume it will be with off-season moves (sign Scuderi, please), a healthy Gardiner, and possibly one of our prospects coming up, it'll make a world of difference.

Some tweaks on forward will also help.
Clarkson in, MacArthur out for starters.

A good way to upgrade the experience level on the Leafs would probably be to just target lesser role players who have played well in the playoffs in recent years. No surprise Brandon Prust had such a nice impact for Montreal this year after his work in New York last season.

Even JVR was our most effective forward last night, and he was a beast in 2010.

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Old
05-02-2013, 08:01 PM
  #27
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Did you read the article? There have been a few crappy teams who have dominated possession against us for the past month. That was kind of the point. I assumed there was nothing there too complicated for people to understand but you're making me rethink that assessment. Surely you can put two and two together from here on out yes?
I did read the article. In it he states that players Carlyle has scratched have much better possession stats than players Carlyle is dressing. That would seem to be a coaching issue and not a talent issue and might have something to do with why teams much less talented than us, still dominate us in possession.

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Old
05-02-2013, 08:06 PM
  #28
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That was just a long article that should have said "they can't break out of their own zone" but didn't actually say it.

It's all about the breakout. The opposing defense pressures our wingers and we turn it over every time.

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Old
05-02-2013, 08:07 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Jeebs View Post
I did read the article. In it he states that players Carlyle has scratched have much better possession stats than players Carlyle is dressing. That would seem to be a coaching issue and not a talent issue and might have something to do with why teams much less talented than us, still dominate us in possession.
Hopefully you're right mate. Cheers.

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Old
05-02-2013, 08:19 PM
  #30
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I do see one problem with Mirtle article. Namely he mentions that Orr as being one of the worst possession players (which is accurate), however Mirtle ignores or fails to mentions that
1. For those watching the game know that Orr was not the problem last night
2. Even his advanced Corsi stats from the leaf/bruins game last night show that Orr was one of the better leaf forwards measured by Corsi

Mirtle is correct, Orr's Corsi for the year was poor but he totally misrepresents the game and Orr's contribution both in the game last night AND measured what his precious Corsi advance stats say.

Sorry but fact checked and you fail Mirtle on calling out Orr specifically. (My best CBC marketplace. That said, I do agree with most of Mirtle's article but I want to point out that mistake being intentional or unintentional. FYI I recommend people check TOI to see Corsi for yourself.

This is my problem with some of those using advanced stats. Sometimes they only tell the version of the truth they want and can't be relied to be objective. Now like Mirtle, I don't believe the leafs should be playing two enforcers but it is a half truth to argue or represent or imply that advanced stats from the game last night against the Bruins suggest this. Sorry they do not. In fact, it suggests the opposite - that Orr should be playing even more.


Last edited by number72: 05-02-2013 at 08:44 PM.
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Old
05-02-2013, 08:39 PM
  #31
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Reimer had a Corsi of -24, he sucks.

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Old
05-02-2013, 08:42 PM
  #32
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Colton Orr had a better game than Chris Kelly according to Fenwick..

That's how you know this crap shouldn't be taken seriously.

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Old
05-02-2013, 08:48 PM
  #33
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This why I was on Holzer and Kostka from the get go this season. Obviously it's not entirely a personnel issue, but you can't have guys like that in the lineup against beastly forecheckers.

Gardiner and Rielly possess the type of mobility this team is dearly lacking. Let's hope they continue to develop well.

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Old
05-02-2013, 08:48 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by number72 View Post
This is my problem with some of those using advanced stats. Sometimes they only tell the version of the truth they want and can't be relied to be objective. Now like Mirtle, I don't believe the leafs should be playing two enforcers but it is a half truth to argue or represent or imply that advanced stats from the game last night against the Bruins suggest this. Sorry they do not. In fact, it suggests the opposite - that Orr should be playing even more.
Stats are 100% objective, it's the people who interpret them that aren't.

I won't lie, I'm a stats supporter and I'm sure people could find bias in some of my interpretations, but you can't blame the numbers.

Orr may not have been the biggest culprit last night but there are obvious trends with this team and they are not positive.

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Old
05-02-2013, 08:49 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by Bomber0104 View Post
Colton Orr had a better game than Chris Kelly according to Fenwick..

That's how you know this crap shouldn't be taken seriously.
Fenwick is for longer trends, not a one game sample size. That's how I know you don't understand what you're talking about...

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Old
05-02-2013, 08:51 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Bomber0104 View Post
Colton Orr had a better game than Chris Kelly according to Fenwick..

That's how you know this crap shouldn't be taken seriously.
In statistics there are things called outliers. They are anomalies and are not supported by the larger body of evidence.

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Old
05-02-2013, 08:53 PM
  #37
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Fenwick is for longer trends, not a one game sample size. That's how I know you don't understand what you're talking about...
So more BS lumped on to more BS...

Sorry but you cant just ignore certain sets of data and manipulate others like Mirtle did with regards to Kulemin and McClement and you are now doing

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Old
05-02-2013, 08:57 PM
  #38
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He can choke on his numbers when the leafs win and are outshot again. Call the spade a spade they played bad and the refs sucked just as much.The forcheck was rotten,the cycle was zip,the intelligence was secondary,and the puck support was non existant.

The goalie wasn't his usual self and we lost.

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Old
05-02-2013, 09:00 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Bomber0104 View Post
So more BS lumped on to more BS...

Sorry but you cant just ignore certain sets of data and manipulate others like Mirtle did with regards to Kulemin and McClement and you are now doing
You think advanced stats are BS.... So, information is good, more information is bad. Gotcha.

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Old
05-02-2013, 09:06 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by LeafsWantStanley View Post
'Stats are for you guys'

AND

'We don't criticize a win'

Those are his 2 go-to saying when Reporters bring up shot-differentials or chance-differentials
That's what he says to the media, but what does he say to the assistant coaches and players?

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Old
05-02-2013, 09:26 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by number72 View Post
I do see one problem with Mirtle article. Namely he mentions that Orr as being one of the worst possession players (which is accurate), however Mirtle ignores or fails to mentions that
1. For those watching the game know that Orr was not the problem last night
2. Even his advanced Corsi stats from the leaf/bruins game last night show that Orr was one of the better leaf forwards measured by Corsi

Mirtle is correct, Orr's Corsi for the year was poor but he totally misrepresents the game and Orr's contribution both in the game last night AND measured what his precious Corsi advance stats say.

Sorry but fact checked and you fail Mirtle on calling out Orr specifically. (My best CBC marketplace. That said, I do agree with most of Mirtle's article but I want to point out that mistake being intentional or unintentional. FYI I recommend people check TOI to see Corsi for yourself.

This is my problem with some of those using advanced stats. Sometimes they only tell the version of the truth they want and can't be relied to be objective. Now like Mirtle, I don't believe the leafs should be playing two enforcers but it is a half truth to argue or represent or imply that advanced stats from the game last night against the Bruins suggest this. Sorry they do not. In fact, it suggests the opposite - that Orr should be playing even more.
Orr gets the easiest protected minutes and it is a waste. Put a skilled player in those easy minutes and you will get goals

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Old
05-02-2013, 09:37 PM
  #42
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I've said the same thing, more or less, of that article.

If they want to improve puck posession, they need to bench Koska, Fraser and Franson and get some dmen who have half decent puck handling skills. Gardiner is one of them. Did Carlyle say he makes too many mistakes? Not physical enough? What about the rest of the defence? They are mistake prone and their physical play doesn't matter if they're trying to chase Bruins players down in their own zone!

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Old
05-02-2013, 09:41 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by Jeebs View Post
Stats are 100% objective, it's the people who interpret them that aren't.

I won't lie, I'm a stats supporter and I'm sure people could find bias in some of my interpretations, but you can't blame the numbers.

Orr may not have been the biggest culprit last night but there are obvious trends with this team and they are not positive.
Those stats show that the Leafs don't possess the puck sufficiently in these games. Having enforcers in games in which the flow of the play is quicker and more intense than regular season games mean less chance of winning. The Leafs didn't have the skill and they keep making turnovers because they cannot maintain puck control.

PP sucks? They cannot keep possession of the puck? Cannot carry the puck in the Bruins zone? Same. The forecheck is important but they have not been able to keep the puck once they get it. The D is too slow and sloppy. They are not able to maintain a good forecheck but that's just part of the problem. The Leafs are not a threat offensively so the Bruins know they can just pressure the Leafs at will.

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Old
05-02-2013, 09:42 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Tie Domi Esquire View Post
That's what he says to the media, but what does he say to the assistant coaches and players?
Carlyle:Keep Collapsing, the shots are coming from the point. I dont care if they outshoot us 100 to 10, a win is a win.

(Not what he really says but what I think he'll say) lol

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Old
05-02-2013, 09:47 PM
  #45
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All teams have many weaknesses. Anyone can write about why a team lost or why they won. Woop-ta-tee-do.....

When the Leafs beat Boston this will be just another pointless articles.

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Old
05-02-2013, 09:53 PM
  #46
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Those numbers are just crazy. They're so much worse than like, anything. I have no idea what's going on with this team; it's mindboggling.
Not really mindboggling. This is why teams look at tape. The word is out on the Leafs and they are very easy to beat if pressured and played physically. It's been like this for years and was a main reason why the Leafs took their monumental nose dive last season.

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Old
05-02-2013, 09:56 PM
  #47
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Carlyle should read this article and only stick one goon in the game and take out Kostka... FOREVER

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Old
05-02-2013, 09:59 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by pucky View Post
Those stats show that the Leafs don't possess the puck sufficiently in these games. Having enforcers in games in which the flow of the play is quicker and more intense than regular season games mean less chance of winning. The Leafs didn't have the skill and they keep making turnovers because they cannot maintain puck control.

PP sucks? They cannot keep possession of the puck? Cannot carry the puck in the Bruins zone? Same. The forecheck is important but they have not been able to keep the puck once they get it. The D is too slow and sloppy. They are not able to maintain a good forecheck but that's just part of the problem. The Leafs are not a threat offensively so the Bruins know they can just pressure the Leafs at will.
The stats show some of the most skilled players (JVR/Kessel/Bozak) were largely out shot on the first line duties. They also show that Fraser and Franson and Phaneuf were largely outshot in their matchups. Players like Kostka (??), Liles, Orr and Komorov, Macarthur had smaller or positive shot differentials.

Now we can ignore the data from this game (small samples size) and some of it is garbage i.e. Kostka, but corsi wise what happened over the course of the season is not reliable descriptor of how these players played in this one game.

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Old
05-02-2013, 10:09 PM
  #49
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Our gameplan reminds me of this:


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Old
05-02-2013, 10:58 PM
  #50
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Originally Posted by Bomber0104 View Post
Colton Orr had a better game than Chris Kelly according to Fenwick..

That's how you know this crap shouldn't be taken seriously.
No ****... Orr played lesser minutes against lesser competition. Over the duration of a full season or even a larger sample size of games these outliers will normalize.

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