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2013 NHL Draft Talk Part 4: Flyers own the 11th overall pick

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Old
05-02-2013, 07:44 PM
  #101
GiggityGiggityGoo
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I feel with a pick at 11, you could possibly wait for a guy like Shinkaruk. If he's not there at 11, no big deal, just pick a defenseman that would be displaced to 11.

This is all based on wanting Shinkaruk. I personally think a Dman with offensive upside is needed, but what do I know?

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05-02-2013, 11:25 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by LegionofDoom91

I'm probably one of the few that would prefer Zadorov over Ristolanien and Pulock but I wouldn't take him over Nichushkin, Lindholm, Nurse, or Monahan. I think you're highly overrating him. He's a good player but too much of gamble compared to some of those players.
I think you are right about Nichushkin...I was worried about his KHL contract etc., but he's a top quality prospect and has to be taken if there...that said, I'd still go Zadorov, Nurse, Pulock over Lindholm or Monahan...I guess you could say they are my "draft for need" exceptions.

---will def be gone----
Jones
Mac
Drouin
Barkov
-----one of these will be available at #11------
Nichushkin
Zadorov
Nurse
Pulock
Lindholm
Monahan
Ristolainen

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05-03-2013, 12:02 AM
  #103
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Zadorov is really raw from the videos that I have seen of him. He should not be in the NHL next season. Needs to go back to Juniors and develop more.
Agreed.

He could actually step into the NHL next year and play a shutdown role similar to Schenn's rookie year, but a year in the OHL with a more offensive role will do him good

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Old
05-03-2013, 12:08 AM
  #104
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Delete please.


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Old
05-03-2013, 12:08 AM
  #105
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Originally Posted by fauxflex View Post
I think you are right about Nichushkin...I was worried about his KHL contract etc., but he's a top quality prospect and has to be taken if there...that said, I'd still go Zadorov, Nurse, Pulock over Lindholm or Monahan...I guess you could say they are my "draft for need" exceptions.

---will def be gone----
Jones
Mac
Drouin
Barkov
-----one of these will be available at #11------
Nichushkin
Zadorov
Nurse
Pulock
Lindholm
Monahan
Ristolainen
You seriously like Zadorov over all those guys? I like Zadorov myself but not that much.

IMO:
-Nichushkin
-Monahan
-Nurse
-Lindholm
-Zadorov
-Ristolanien
-Pulock

I would take Zadorov over Ristolanien but its pretty close to me. I wouldn't care either way really. I guess I'm more intrigued by Zadorov's upside than Ristolanien's.

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Old
05-03-2013, 02:28 AM
  #106
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After doing a little bit more research on players in this draft, I am just beginning to understand how loaded this draft is in terms of Defenseman.

Just in the 10-20 range we could see up to 6 d men get drafted.

WHile I don't mind picking 11th, if we picked 8th I could we could have traded it to Columbus for the 14th and the kings pick.

Having 2 picks in that range could have brought us some interesting prospects. One im interested in is Shea Theodore. I think the nhl is evolving to a point where finding that number 1 every situation 30 min per game defenseman is almost impossible to find. I like what New York, PIttsburgh, and Vancouver has done. Assembled a nice collection of dmen with a variety of skills. Theodore and pulock could be the offensive dmen we don't have. Zadorov could be that great skater with upside we don't have, or Rasmus could be the NHL ready guy.

As we get closer I have a sneaking suspicion that Nurse, and Nischuskian will drop. If that is the case, we could be looking at those 2 at 11 and to be honest I don't think you could go wrong either way.

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Old
05-03-2013, 04:14 AM
  #107
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fauxflex View Post
---will def be gone----
Jones
Mac
Drouin
Barkov
-----one of these will be available at #11------
Nichushkin
Zadorov
Nurse
Pulock
Lindholm
Monahan
Ristolainen
I am getting more and more excited for the draft. As much as I love playoff hockey I want it to be over already and move onto to the draft and free agency.

Come on 2015 already!

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Old
05-03-2013, 06:59 AM
  #108
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If that scout's report was right, and many teams are questioning Nurse's hockey IQ, I could see him slipping. Though, in that case, I'm not sure he'd be the best fit for us either.

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05-03-2013, 07:16 AM
  #109
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Why are people here so high on Zadorov? He's a hulking defensive defenseman who has shown limited offensive upside in half a season's worth of work. We already have Grossmann, Coburn, and Schenn who basically play the same game as him. Yes, there's a POSSIBILITY that 4-5 years down the line he could develop some puck moving skills, but chances are far greater that he becomes the next Coburn (who people thought could develop puck moving skills). Bad franchises are made by reaching for a guy out of need instead of selecting a superior talent (such as Monahan).

No, we don't necessarily need another center, but established surplus pieces can always be moved for established surplus pieces on another team. Look at Coots. Not that I want the Flyers to move him, but in a year and a half of work he's become one of the most desirable young players in the league, and everyone wants him. That gives us a lot of flexibility, certainly moreso than a run of the mill defensive defenseman who projects to be a middle pairing guy.

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05-03-2013, 07:22 AM
  #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack de la Hoya View Post
If that scout's report was right, and many teams are questioning Nurse's hockey IQ, I could see him slipping. Though, in that case, I'm not sure he'd be the best fit for us either.
I have serious doubts about how widespread this line of thinking is with Nurse. There are several reports that seem to indicate the exact opposite. If Nurse is at 11 for whatever odd priorities the other teams have followed, I would have to slow myself from running up to the podium to choose him.

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05-03-2013, 07:23 AM
  #111
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Originally Posted by Reduxs View Post
Why are people here so high on Zadorov? He's a hulking defensive defenseman who has shown limited offensive upside in half a season's worth of work. We already have Grossmann, Coburn, and Schenn who basically play the same game as him. Yes, there's a POSSIBILITY that 4-5 years down the line he could develop some puck moving skills, but chances are far greater that he becomes the next Coburn (who people thought could develop puck moving skills). Bad franchises are made by reaching for a guy out of need instead of selecting a superior talent (such as Monahan).

No, we don't necessarily need another center, but established surplus pieces can always be moved for established surplus pieces on another team. Look at Coots. Not that I want the Flyers to move him, but in a year and a half of work he's become one of the most desirable young players in the league, and everyone wants him. That gives us a lot of flexibility, certainly moreso than a run of the mill defensive defenseman who projects to be a middle pairing guy.
Well, I was with you at the start. I'm concerned about Zadorov as well.

That said, I don't think that Zadorov is really a "reach" at 11. He's been in the top-10 of ISS all year. Similarly, it would be a surprise if Monahan drops to 11.

I'd be pretty surprised if the consensus top guys on the board aren't some combination of Zadorov, Pulock, and Ristolainen (in terms of defenseman) and Shinkaruk, Domi, and Zykov (in terms of forwards. Obviously they won't all be there--probably four of them will.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BernieParent View Post
I have serious doubts about how widespread this line of thinking is with Nurse. There are several reports that seem to indicate the exact opposite. If Nurse is at 11 for whatever odd priorities the other teams have followed, I would have to slow myself from running up to the podium to choose him.
That's very possible--but then I'm not sure Nurse would slide.

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Old
05-03-2013, 07:35 AM
  #112
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Originally Posted by Jack de la Hoya View Post
That's very possible--but then I'm not sure Nurse would slide.
Exactly my point. I'm glad we are in agreement.

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Old
05-03-2013, 08:50 AM
  #113
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Originally Posted by Reduxs View Post
Why are people here so high on Zadorov? He's a hulking defensive defenseman who has shown limited offensive upside in half a season's worth of work. We already have Grossmann, Coburn, and Schenn who basically play the same game as him. Yes, there's a POSSIBILITY that 4-5 years down the line he could develop some puck moving skills, but chances are far greater that he becomes the next Coburn (who people thought could develop puck moving skills). Bad franchises are made by reaching for a guy out of need instead of selecting a superior talent (such as Monahan).

No, we don't necessarily need another center, but established surplus pieces can always be moved for established surplus pieces on another team. Look at Coots. Not that I want the Flyers to move him, but in a year and a half of work he's become one of the most desirable young players in the league, and everyone wants him. That gives us a lot of flexibility, certainly moreso than a run of the mill defensive defenseman who projects to be a middle pairing guy.
I agree on Zadorov. I think a lot of people have this view of him being like Shea Weber and going from a guy who doesnt put up points in Juniors and turning him into a shutdown defender that puts up 50 points. When you try to take one of those big defenders and make them into a two way threat, it takes a while. Weber played 2 more years in Juniors and then a season in the AHL. Even a guy like Chara took 5-6 years until he developed an offensive game. For every guy like Weber and Chara who are able to fit that mold there are 20 that turn into Coburn. I'd be more inclined to take a guy with size that already has the offensive game and work to fine tune the defensive game. Personally I think Ristolainen is the closest to being NHL ready and while he wont be a key for a couple years I can easily see him being a 40 point defenseman when he's 20-21 while the other guys may just be breaking into the league.

As for your Couturier point, I agree that taking the best player you can puts you in a position to make a trade down the line but at the same time, people want Couturier because his stock is perceived to be low right now. For example, we could have taken Dougie Hamilton instead of Couturier at the draft but Boston wouldnt swap the two now. Defensive prospects are more risky but once they prove they can play, they become much more valuable.

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Old
05-03-2013, 08:55 AM
  #114
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Originally Posted by Jack de la Hoya View Post
That said, I don't think that Zadorov is really a "reach" at 11. He's been in the top-10 of ISS all year. Similarly, it would be a surprise if Monahan drops to 11.
I wasn't saying Monahan will drop, because I don't believe he will. It was more of a generalized response to some of the posts I've seen advocating chosing Zadorov over Monahan if given the opportunity. I think Pulock or Shinkaruk are our best bets at 11, even if Nurse is on the board.

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Old
05-03-2013, 09:13 AM
  #115
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Yeah but as has been said a bunch around here, just because scouts and pundits have guys ranked a certain way, doesn't mean teams do. I don't know much about Morin, but it is certainly possible that the Flyers have him above the guys being mentioned around here (Risto, Pulock, etc).

If they like him better than Pulock or Risto or whomever but don't want to trade back and risk missing out on him, I could see them taking him at 11. ISS has him at whatever and most mocks have him int he late first or early second, but if the Flyers have him that high, it is certainly possible that the Sabres or Blue Jackets or someone picking right around where the Flyers are picking have him that high too.
Well ya I don't know who they have where. They could have Hagg as their top defender or maybe Petan or De La Rose or whoever as their top forwards. I have no idea. But I don't know if its true that just because Button has him at 11 that the Flyers do. According to rankings Morin would be a reach at 11. I can't remember the last player with a 2nd round grading go in the top 15 but I guess it could happen. I just don't expect it to.

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05-03-2013, 09:26 AM
  #116
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Well ya I don't know who they have where. They could have Hagg as their top defender or maybe Petan or De La Rose or whoever as their top forwards. I have no idea. But I don't know if its true that just because Button has him at 11 that the Flyers do. According to rankings Morin would be a reach at 11. I can't remember the last player with a 2nd round grading go in the top 15 but I guess it could happen. I just don't expect it to.
Carter was ranked pretty low on some lists, right?

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05-03-2013, 09:31 AM
  #117
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Well ya I don't know who they have where. They could have Hagg as their top defender or maybe Petan or De La Rose or whoever as their top forwards. I have no idea. But I don't know if its true that just because Button has him at 11 that the Flyers do. According to rankings Morin would be a reach at 11. I can't remember the last player with a 2nd round grading go in the top 15 but I guess it could happen. I just don't expect it to.
Forsberg was a late 1rst/early 2nd prospect wasn't he?

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05-03-2013, 09:35 AM
  #118
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From the TSN archives, Setoguchi was rated at 26th and was drafted 8th. That is a pretty big jump given Bob's list is a pool of head scouts.

EDIT: Here is the link to top 30 vs where taken from 2004 (I wish they had all twenty years McKenzie has done it):

http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=10903


Last edited by BillDineen: 05-03-2013 at 09:40 AM.
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05-03-2013, 10:04 AM
  #119
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Originally Posted by BillDineen View Post
From the TSN archives, Setoguchi was rated at 26th and was drafted 8th. That is a pretty big jump given Bob's list is a pool of head scouts.

EDIT: Here is the link to top 30 vs where taken from 2004 (I wish they had all twenty years McKenzie has done it):

http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=10903
Ouch, a lot of teams got burned on that draft. I'd be pretty upset if the Flyers ended up with a Lauri Tukonen.

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05-03-2013, 10:14 AM
  #120
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Ouch, a lot of teams got burned on that draft. I'd be pretty upset if the Flyers ended up with a Lauri Tukonen.
I just went through the drafts 1998-2007 and did a subjective count of top 4 d out of all taken (didn't count Luc Bourdon RIP). This is the breakdown I got:

Picks 1-10:
Top 4 D- 15
D Taken- 22
Success rate- 68%

Picks 11-20:
Top 4 D- 13
D Taken- 31
Success rate- 43%

Picks 21-30:
Top 4 D- 11
D Taken- 35
Success rate- 31%

"Success" here is getting a top 4 d rather than a top pairing.

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05-03-2013, 10:20 AM
  #121
Jack de la Hoya
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Originally Posted by BillDineen View Post
I just went through the drafts 1998-2007 and did a subjective count of top 4 d out of all taken (didn't count Luc Bourdon RIP). This is the breakdown I got:

Picks 1-10:
Top 4 D- 15
D Taken- 22
Success rate- 68%

Picks 11-20:
Top 4 D- 13
D Taken- 31
Success rate- 43%

Picks 21-30:
Top 4 D- 11
D Taken- 35
Success rate- 31%

"Success" here is getting a top 4 d rather than a top pairing.
Out of curiosity, what criteria did you use to measure a "top-4" defenseman?

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05-03-2013, 10:39 AM
  #122
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Originally Posted by fauxflex View Post
I think you are right about Nichushkin...I was worried about his KHL contract etc., but he's a top quality prospect and has to be taken if there...that said, I'd still go Zadorov, Nurse, Pulock over Lindholm or Monahan...I guess you could say they are my "draft for need" exceptions.

---will def be gone----
Jones
Mac
Drouin
Barkov
-----one of these will be available at #11------
Nichushkin
Zadorov
Nurse
Pulock
Lindholm
Monahan
Ristolainen
AT LEAST one of these will be available. Never know if someone reaches a bit. That said we are going to have a great prospect no matter what.

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05-03-2013, 10:41 AM
  #123
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Out of curiosity, what criteria did you use to measure a "top-4" defenseman?
Completely subjective looking at the names.

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05-03-2013, 10:57 AM
  #124
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Completely subjective looking at the names.
If it doesn't contain 70-80 lines of numbers and 7+-letter acronyms, it's not worth my time.

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05-03-2013, 10:57 AM
  #125
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AT LEAST one of these will be available. Never know if someone reaches a bit. That said we are going to have a great prospect no matter what.
Honestly, wouldn't be surprised if we took a player not on te list. Flyers seem to do that all the time.

To everyone else, ya it happens every now and then. Don't know how I'd feel with tem reaching for a defendsive defender.

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