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Is the NE division really just a 2 legged race?

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Old
09-19-2006, 03:35 PM
  #51
RussCourtnallsGhost
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Clancy View Post
Fair enough, we've agreed to disagree!


I have to disagree vigourously with you here. If you want to compare stats, you have to look at the whole picture, and not pick-and-choose the stats that illustrate your point while ignoring the ones that go against you.

I watched a lot of Habs games last year, and from what I saw, the team played a very strong defense with Huet in net. The D would collapse in front of the net and protect him down low, letting him handle low-percentage outside shots... So the team won those games, and gave him those nice GAA and SV% stats. Same as playing on Carolina helped Gerber win 38 games. The Habs played a much more conservative, defense-oriented game than the Hurricanes did.

I agree that the difference isn't all that huge, btw. I wouldn't pick Huet over Gerber, but I can see why you wouldn't pick Gerber over Huet.

Thank you, that was a logical and well-written post. My whole point of this thread: I don't think Ottawa or Montreal have "questionable" goaltending, I think they both have really really good goaltending, especially their goaltending tandems. That's why I was so taken aback that he could call our goaltending "questionable".

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09-19-2006, 03:36 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by King Clancy View Post
I think the health of Gerber in the Habs series has been very well documented and doesn't merit re-hashing. Once he came back (during the Buffalo series) he was very good.
Gerber
March = 12 GP, 2.41, 0.923
April RS= 8 GP, 3.63, 0.876
April Pl = 2 GP, 7.20, 0.735
May Pl = 4 GP, 1.63, 0.929

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09-19-2006, 03:38 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Fuhr86 View Post
Toivonen is the best young goalie in the NHL his style of play is reminecent of Patrick Roy. The Bruins dont have goaltending issues, Toivonen was 9-5-4 with a 9.14sv% last season before injuries ended his season. Thomas will be an excellent backup, the goaltending in Boston will be very good.
Well then, based on that, Toronto should have no goaltending issues at all.. Aubin was 9-0 with a 9.24sv% before the season ended. If Raycroft can pull the load, maybe Aubin can. Remember, sometimes goalies can mature late. Just ask the team that has a 32 year old second year starter.. I'll give you a hint.. they are in Kanata.

I just don't understand how Toronto, a team that missed the playoffs by two points last year and who had no problems scoring, and improved the defence, which was the biggest liability, can drop so significantly. On the other hand a team like Boston which had a top 5 pick and was out of the playoffs by January, is talked out so highly. Chara and Savard is going to catapult this team to challenge for the division?

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09-19-2006, 03:39 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Fuhr86 View Post
Did Huet have a 50 save shutout preformence against canada at the olympics?
LOL, Yes, let's base this whole argument on one game! That sounds fun!
For your information, I'm not being a homer here, I actually really like Gerber, but was just taken aback that someone could call Montreal's goaltending questionable.

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09-19-2006, 03:40 PM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Craven Morehead View Post
While that is true, having a 1-2 punch down the middle seems to be the recipe for success. For Ottawa, if Kaigorodov isn't the answer, we might be in serious trouble. Look at the past 10-12 years for the Cup winners. Yzerman-Fedorov, Forsberg-Sakic, Modano-Nieuwnedyk, Richards-Lecavalier and Staal-Brind'Amour. Spezza-Kaigorodov??? Who knows, but if Kaigorodov does falter, we need to get a big gun for the end of the year down the middle who can step in.
Yeah, that's pretty much what I was saying. We can make due in the regular season, but come playoffs, we would be in a lot of trouble. I think Kaigorodov will make the proper adjustments to make it in the NHL, but it will be interesting to see how he handles the playoffs.

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09-19-2006, 03:44 PM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuhr86 View Post
Did Huet have a 50 save shutout preformence against canada at the olympics?
Did Huet completely tank the other two Olympic games he was in and get pulled?


I don't like basing anything on 36 or 42 games either... but Huet probably could have played 24 more games blindfolded and matched Gerber's ratio statistics.

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09-19-2006, 03:48 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Craven Morehead View Post
If you think your point is valid and the only way it is, that's great. Your everyone's hero!!
Please don't resort to personal attacks, it's very childish and usually ends up with threads being locked, I thought we were trying to have a discussion here.

Let me sum up the thread so far:

You said that the habs goaltending is questionable, I was taken aback by this, and provided many reasons as to why I think the Habs will have no problem in nets, and the only thing you've come up with to back up your stance is this: "I know I wouldn't want either Huet or Aebischer as my starting goalie". For the record, I think both Ottawa and Montreal have great goaltending, and I'm simply wondering why you have no faith in a team with two goaltenders that most people would categorize as, at worst, 'solid', or at best , as 'very good'.

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09-19-2006, 03:57 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Stryder6 View Post
Please don't resort to personal attacks, it's very childish and usually ends up with threads being locked, I thought we were trying to have a discussion here.

Let me sum up the thread so far:

You said that the habs goaltending is questionable, I was taken aback by this, and provided many reasons as to why I think the Habs will have no problem in nets, and the only thing you've come up with to back up your stance is this: "I know I wouldn't want either Huet or Aebischer as my starting goalie". For the record, I think both Ottawa and Montreal have great goaltending, and I'm simply wondering why you have no faith in a team with two goaltenders that most people would categorize as, at worst, 'solid', or at best , as 'very good'.

Your reasons are aren't convincing to me and you've dismissed many of my reasons, coming back with the same save % and GAA argument virtually everytime, like somehow that trumps everything. I don't see you taking in any consideration to intangibles at all.
You don't like my reason, then fine. You've made your case. Move on.

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09-19-2006, 04:02 PM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Craven Morehead View Post
Your reasons are aren't convincing to me and you've dismissed many of my reasons, coming back with the same save % and GAA argument virtually everytime, like somehow that trumps everything. I don't see you taking in any consideration to intangibles at all.
You don't like my reason, then fine. You've made your case. Move on.
Sorry, I thought we were having a rational discussion. I guess I was wrong. Oh, and I will move on, to the Habs/Bruins that is! I'm off to the Bell Centre!

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09-19-2006, 04:11 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by Stryder6 View Post
Huet had a better regular season and playoffs than Gerber, how do you figure he is not stronger?
Gerber's Carolina finnished 4th overall and Huet's Canadiens finnished 15th overall.

Futhermore, Gerber played in 60 games, won 38 of them, lost only 14 games and had a GAA of 2.78 for a very offensive club. So without Gerber in the regular season who's to say Caroliona would had made the playoffs.

Huet played in 36 games, won 18, lost 11 and sure he had a better GAA and Save% then Gerber but he played 24 fewer game and he played for a defensive club.

Gerber was 24 games over .500 and Huet was 7 games over .500, there's no doubt in my mind Gerber is better then Huet.

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Old
09-19-2006, 04:26 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SPARTAKUS View Post
Gerber was 24 games over .500 and Huet was 7 games over .500, there's no doubt in my mind Gerber is better then Huet.
Goalies don't win games. That relic statistic is only around to keep grandpa as a fan.
Dad's statistic (average) is better, but not much better.
Our statistic is SV% and it is way better than both... at least until our children and grandchildren make fools of us all.

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09-19-2006, 04:59 PM
  #62
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Perhaps a little too late to voice my opinion since the thread seems to be degenerating but here goes...

While it does appear that Buffalo and Ottawa top the NE, both teams are arguably worse this season, while Toronto, Montreal & Boston have only improved, losing no significant pieces.

And although the points difference between Ottawa-Buffalo & Toronto-Montreal-Boston seems huge, the number of intra-division games means even the slightest changes can affect the standings dramatically.

Add to that the fact neither team outside of Buffalo can boast of proven goaltending -the main woe of Toronto, Montreal & Boston last year- and it becomes even less assured that Ottawa and Buffalo are a cut above: all it takes is for Raycroft, Huet or Toivonen/Thomas not to suck turd-dip for 40 games.

Injuries are another mitigating factor: they can hit anyone. Now some teams have more depth than others but even a deep team can be fragile: Connolly is recovering from post-concussion syndrome, Brière left a pre-season game early with a minor hip-flexor and Buffalo's depth took a hit this summer. No matter how much depth you have, losing your top 2 centers is never good.

Now despite all that I think Montreal is a lock for a playoff spot but no more, Buffalo and Ottawa are gunning for the division title and Toronto and Boston are on the edge of making the playoffs. Injuries and goaltending will make the difference and I have more confidence in the tandems of Huet-Aebischer, Gerber-Emery & Miller-Biron than in Raycroft & Thomas-Toivonen.

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Old
09-19-2006, 07:25 PM
  #63
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Yes, the NE division is a two team race.

The Habs and Bruins will fight for the 5-9th spots in the conference and the Leafs will finish somewhere between 7-11.

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09-20-2006, 01:15 PM
  #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trentmccleary View Post
Goalies don't win games. That relic statistic is only around to keep grandpa as a fan.
Dad's statistic (average) is better, but not much better.
Our statistic is SV% and it is way better than both... at least until our children and grandchildren make fools of us all.
Better, but still not good. SV% is still a team stat because it is strongly affected by the quality of chances (e.g. number of powerplays, 2 on 1's, clearing away rebounds or rebounders) that a team allows. If someone comes up with a way to judge the quality of chances (adjusted save percentage?) then we'll be closer to a goalie vs. goalie stat.

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09-20-2006, 01:16 PM
  #65
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Originally Posted by SENSible1 View Post
Yes, the NE division is a two team race.

The Habs and Bruins will fight for the 5-9th spots in the conference and the Leafs will finish somewhere between 7-11.
Agreed.

My prediction is:
Buffalo - 1
Ottawa - 4
Boston - 6
Montreal - 7
Toronto - 10

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09-20-2006, 01:21 PM
  #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RTWAP View Post
Agreed.

My prediction is:
Buffalo - 1
Ottawa - 4
Boston - 6
Montreal - 7
Toronto - 10
Exactly my prediction as well.

Goaltending is really the achilles heal of every team except Buffalo.

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09-20-2006, 01:35 PM
  #67
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Just something of intrest, teams that outshot their opponents had about a .550W%, while teams that were outshot had about a .450 W% (imagine that).

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09-20-2006, 01:40 PM
  #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RTWAP View Post
Better, but still not good. SV% is still a team stat because it is strongly affected by the quality of chances (e.g. number of powerplays, 2 on 1's, clearing away rebounds or rebounders) that a team allows. If someone comes up with a way to judge the quality of chances (adjusted save percentage?) then we'll be closer to a goalie vs. goalie stat.
Statistics like that aren't universal and the be all to end all, as that stryder6 psoter keep trying to reiterate. Huet had better stats then Gerber, but by his logic is saying that Huet is the better goalie, when we know that isn't the case. Are Huet or Gerber by that logic, better then Kolzig??? No and we can say that, not just from stats over the course of time, but just by watching the goalie play, which was the basis of my opinion. Cujo never put up great numbers when he was with the Leafs, but he was a really good goalie for them. Everybody knows there is a more to a player then just stats, but it seems when goalies are being compared, stats is the only tool they are measured for against one another. IMO, that's a naive way to look at it.
BTW, I'm not insinuationg you apply that theory.

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09-20-2006, 02:02 PM
  #69
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I also did graphs of the +-shots vs Winning percentages for the regular season and playoffs. There is a clear relationship between shots and winning % in the regular season, but not in the playoffs which may be do to randomness. But teams with higher winning percentages in the playoffs seemed to have near 0 shot +-s.

I also have nearly identical results for the previous 03-04 playoffs

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09-20-2006, 03:33 PM
  #70
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Craven Morehead View Post
Everybody knows there is a more to a player then just stats, but it seems when goalies are being compared, stats is the only tool they are measured for against one another. IMO, that's a naive way to look at it.
IMO, the goalie position is much different than all the others.
Good physical tools or fundamentals can be undone by the mental side of the game moreso than with a skater. A skater can work harder during a game and make up for his head not being in the game. A goalie could work as hard as ever... but if his heads not in the game, it'll probably be a blowout. So how much stock can you put into the physical tools you see on the ice?
Due to the full 60 minutes on the ice and the importance of the position, goalies get a lot of credit or blame and their performances are focal. So Ron Tugnutt saves 71 shots and only lets in one goal, Brian Boucher sets a shutout streak record and Chirs Osgood wins a Cup. To witness these events is not the same as witnessing true greatness. Hot streaks, luck and circumstance allow the names of marginal players such as Druce, Kontos and Wendall Young to be etched in the memories of fanatics years after their 15 minutes of fame expire.
How long can luck last?... Not very long. But how long can circumstance last?... Circumstance can be indefinite (had injuries not ruined my prediction last season, I believe that I would have been right. So I'll make it again; Martin Brodeur will not make the Vezina ballot this season.).

IMO, I feel much less confident watching goalies and determining comething about them or their future. There are too many variables that can deceive the viewer. What I know for sure is that they're supposed to stop pucks and the who stops the most is probably the best. When we start talking of events that number over 2,000+ per season... stats start looking pretty damn attractive.

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Old
09-20-2006, 07:22 PM
  #71
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Originally Posted by trentmccleary View Post
When we start talking of events that number over 2,000+ per season... stats start looking pretty damn attractive.
That brings up another problem with goalie stats. Some folks will argue that a goalie with a .917 SV% is definitely better than one with a .909 SV%. But that is 8 goals out of 1000 shots. You could flip a coin 2000 times and have it came up heads 1008 times pretty easily, but when it comes to goalies, the statistical noise is worshipped as a sign from the hockey gods, written in stone and incontrovertible.

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