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Old
05-05-2013, 08:31 PM
  #126
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
It's too bad the Jets aren't in a more attractive market. They could really use Miller. Pavelec sucks against any team that isn't us.
Perhaps their billionaire owner can call Ryan himself and try to convince him otherwise.

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05-05-2013, 09:19 PM
  #127
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I have a hard time pegging what I expect... but I know what I do NOT expect... and that's anything around high end prospects/young players...
If Regier could work some magic and get a high end young player/prospect or a 1st rounder for Miller, that would be miraculous. The market's not there, the precedent is not there, and nearly a third of the teams in the league aren't in the bidding. All signs point to surpressed value. (And yes, I know you know this and you know I know this... I just type it out every few days because I keep reading posts and wondering what the hell people are basing their ideas of comparable return on.)

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05-05-2013, 09:31 PM
  #128
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Originally Posted by Chainshot View Post
If Regier could work some magic and get a high end young player/prospect or a 1st rounder for Miller, that would be miraculous. The market's not there, the precedent is not there, and nearly a third of the teams in the league aren't in the bidding. All signs point to surpressed value. (And yes, I know you know this and you know I know this... I just type it out every few days because I keep reading posts and wondering what the hell people are basing their ideas of comparable return on.)
you mean 2/3 or even 3/4, right?

I like your idea basing a deal around Miller/Yandle.... i just don't think we would be adding the 8th pick...

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05-05-2013, 09:35 PM
  #129
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Originally Posted by Chainshot View Post
If Regier could work some magic and get a high end young player/prospect or a 1st rounder for Miller, that would be miraculous. The market's not there, the precedent is not there, and nearly a third of the teams in the league aren't in the bidding. All signs point to surpressed value. (And yes, I know you know this and you know I know this... I just type it out every few days because I keep reading posts and wondering what the hell people are basing their ideas of comparable return on.)
I'm curious Chain but why even pull the trigger on a trade before next year's deadline for such a paltry return? Isn't it better to go with an inexperienced roster and Miller and Enroth/Hackett between the pipes to start the season, if only to keep the team somewhat competitive. I'd rather the kids cut their hockey teeth on a bunch of one goal losses than multi-goal blow outs. We can still suck (and draft high) with Miller back there as this year so amply proved. Unless he forces Regier's hand, what's the rush/necessity of trading this particular fan favorite?

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05-05-2013, 09:40 PM
  #130
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Originally Posted by slip View Post
I'm curious Chain but why even pull the trigger on a trade before next year's deadline for such a paltry return? Isn't it better to go with an inexperienced roster and Miller and Enroth/Hackett between the pipes to start the season, if only to keep the team somewhat competitive. I'd rather the kids cut their hockey teeth on a bunch of one goal losses than multi-goal blow outs. We can still suck (and draft high) with Miller back there as this year so amply proved. Unless he forces Regier's hand, what's the rush/necessity of trading this particular fan favorite?
because you would get even less at the deadline... playoff teams aren't looking for a new starting goalie at the deadline...

getting miller out sooner, rather than later is better for the trade value return, and better for the team/lockerroom to move on with new leaders, voices, expectations, direction...

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05-05-2013, 09:47 PM
  #131
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
because you would get even less at the deadline... playoff teams aren't looking for a new starting goalie at the deadline...

getting miller out sooner, rather than later is better for the trade value return, and better for the team/lockerroom to move on with new leaders, voices, expectations, direction...
What if the choices aren't all peachy?

What if this is Regier's choice:

1.) Trade Miller for nothing. Like Slava Kozlov.
2.) Hold onto Miller and just let his contract run out.
3.) Resign Miller to a 3 year deal, around the same dollar amount per season (just a swag).

Which do you do?

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05-05-2013, 09:50 PM
  #132
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
you mean 2/3 or even 3/4, right?

I like your idea basing a deal around Miller/Yandle.... i just don't think we would be adding the 8th pick...
I was thinking of Miller's list of 8 (plus the Sabres, making 9) that he wouldn't accept a trade to.

And I like the Yandle idea too. I just don't put much stock in goaltender value.

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Originally Posted by slip View Post
I'm curious Chain but why even pull the trigger on a trade before next year's deadline for such a paltry return? Isn't it better to go with an inexperienced roster and Miller and Enroth/Hackett between the pipes to start the season, if only to keep the team somewhat competitive. I'd rather the kids cut their hockey teeth on a bunch of one goal losses than multi-goal blow outs. We can still suck (and draft high) with Miller back there as this year so amply proved. Unless he forces Regier's hand, what's the rush/necessity of trading this particular fan favorite?
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
because you would get even less at the deadline... playoff teams aren't looking for a new starting goalie at the deadline...

getting miller out sooner, rather than later is better for the trade value return, and better for the team/lockerroom to move on with new leaders, voices, expectations, direction...
Jame basically answered it. Teams trading for goaltending at the deadline aren't trading for a starter for the playoffs. They're adding a backup or shuffling their deckchairs as they cruise into the lottery.

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05-05-2013, 09:52 PM
  #133
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Originally Posted by Der Jaeger View Post
What if the choices aren't all peachy?

What if this is Regier's choice:

1.) Trade Miller for nothing. Like Slava Kozlov.
2.) Hold onto Miller and just let his contract run out.
3.) Resign Miller to a 3 year deal, around the same dollar amount per season (just a swag).

Which do you do?
The return isn't going to be peachy. If Regier is going for the long-term build and trying to acquire high-end draft picks, he takes the deal now, even if it something casual fans and radio personalities think isn't sufficient. Taking Miller out of the Sabres lineup makes them worse on the ice in the short-term.

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05-05-2013, 09:55 PM
  #134
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
because you would get even less at the deadline... playoff teams aren't looking for a new starting goalie at the deadline...

getting miller out sooner, rather than later is better for the trade value return, and better for the team/lockeroom to move on with new leaders, voices, expectations, direction...

I was thinking more in the context of cap restraints/injuries/actual payroll as far as determining potential destinations for Miller at the deadline. Even then I can't imagine the return being much less than a decent defensive prospect and a 2nd rounder which was mentioned above.

But I guess if you're gonna genuinely rebuild, sell whatever isn't nailed down. And the sooner the better.

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05-05-2013, 09:58 PM
  #135
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Originally Posted by Chainshot View Post
The return isn't going to be peachy.
I agree. Which is why I presented the situation.

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Originally Posted by Chainshot View Post
If Regier is going for the long-term build and trying to acquire high-end draft picks, he takes the deal now, even if it something casual fans and radio personalities think isn't sufficient. Taking Miller out of the Sabres lineup makes them worse on the ice in the short-term.
Would you do a Hasek-for-Kozlov type of deal over just keeping Miller? I'm not sure I would. Unless Miller is a locker room cancer that's holding the team back, keeping him in net isn't a bad idea. I'd rather him backstop the "suffering" than potentially ruin Hackett or Enorth.

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05-05-2013, 10:06 PM
  #136
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Originally Posted by Der Jaeger View Post
I agree. Which is why I presented the situation.



Would you do a Hasek-for-Kozlov type of deal over just keeping Miller? I'm not sure I would. Unless Miller is a locker room cancer that's holding the team back, keeping him in net isn't a bad idea. I'd rather him backstop the "suffering" than potentially ruin Hackett or Enorth.
I don't think Enroth is all that worth saving from being shown to be full of holes, so ruining him really doesn't worry me. Either one seeing a lot of pucks may not be a bad thing. Who is the last goalie to be ruined by too much work? Tired, sure. Perhaps even fatigued to the point of injury.

Without finding some forwards who can both score and play defense, or at least play defense, whoever is in net is going to see a lot of rubber -- Miller, Enroth, Hackett, random UFA vet, it matters not.

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05-05-2013, 10:13 PM
  #137
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Originally Posted by Chainshot View Post
I don't think Enroth is all that worth saving from being shown to be full of holes, so ruining him really doesn't worry me. Either one seeing a lot of pucks may not be a bad thing. Who is the last goalie to be ruined by too much work? Tired, sure. Perhaps even fatigued to the point of injury.

Without finding some forwards who can both score and play defense, or at least play defense, whoever is in net is going to see a lot of rubber -- Miller, Enroth, Hackett, random UFA vet, it matters not.
All of that's true. But I'd rather be patient with Hackett. And Enroth too - he did show signs down the stretch. The team that Buffalo wants, with Girgensons, Larsson and the like playing a solid two-way game, is a ways off. With that in mind, I would mind seeing Miller in the net for a few more years.

Not saying I want to keep him. I see him as an asset at this point. But with goalie trade value at its current state, there might be more value in keeping him.

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05-05-2013, 10:22 PM
  #138
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Originally Posted by Der Jaeger View Post
What if the choices aren't all peachy?

What if this is Regier's choice:

1.) Trade Miller for nothing. Like Slava Kozlov.
2.) Hold onto Miller and just let his contract run out.
3.) Resign Miller to a 3 year deal, around the same dollar amount per season (just a swag).

Which do you do?
#1

because #2 and #3 are would be plain stupid

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05-05-2013, 10:27 PM
  #139
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Originally Posted by Der Jaeger View Post
All of that's true. But I'd rather be patient with Hackett. And Enroth too - he did show signs down the stretch. The team that Buffalo wants, with Girgensons, Larsson and the like playing a solid two-way game, is a ways off. With that in mind, I would mind seeing Miller in the net for a few more years.

Not saying I want to keep him. I see him as an asset at this point. But with goalie trade value at its current state, there might be more value in keeping him.
Expand the view though -- is signing a middling vet or letting Hackett/Enroth play it out next year with whatever the return is on Miller and then the likely fall to the bottom of the standings and rise to the top of the draft order more or less valuable for the long-term good of the team than keeping Miller and perhaps again having him make a lot of stops and put them in the 8/9/10 draft hole?

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05-05-2013, 10:29 PM
  #140
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
#1

because #2 and #3 are would be plain stupid
The likelihood that Regier gets anything close to what he wants for Miller is pretty low. I wouldn't be surprised to see Miller on the team opening night. Or getting a contract extension. Miller has more value playing that in a trade at this point. Unless Regier is dying to get Miller off the team, and will do so for any offer.

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05-05-2013, 10:34 PM
  #141
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There is a 4th option: compliance buyout. Obviously getting something (even a 7th round pick) would be preferable, but if there really is no deal...

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05-05-2013, 10:37 PM
  #142
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Expand the view though -- is signing a middling vet or letting Hackett/Enroth play it out next year with whatever the return is on Miller and then the likely fall to the bottom of the standings and rise to the top of the draft order more or less valuable for the long-term good of the team than keeping Miller and perhaps again having him make a lot of stops and put them in the 8/9/10 draft hole?
If the goal is to bottom out - if Regier's goal is to bottom out - then you take anything for Miller.

If the goal is to maximize Miller's value, he's got more value playing in Buffalo than in a trade, unless a team like Phoenix is willing to deal something more for Miller than we'd expect.

Regier gets not much for Miller, nothing for Miller, or keeps him with some good goalies in the system, possibly blocking their way. Of those choices, none look good but three might be best.

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05-05-2013, 10:38 PM
  #143
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There is a 4th option: compliance buyout. Obviously getting something (even a 7th round pick) would be preferable, but if there really is no deal...
Hadn't thought about that. If you planned on doing that, though, wouldn't you just keep him and let his contract expire, thereby saving the buyout?

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05-05-2013, 10:39 PM
  #144
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You people forget one thing - Ryan Miller is a celeb, albeit a minor one but hockey wise he is the most well known American hockey player to the casual sports fan in the US. There are US based franchises who can use any marketing help they can get. Miller will be going to the Sochi Olympics next year, quite possibly as the starting goalie again. Two weeks of nationwide attention where he is 'Ryan Miller of the 'name_of_his_NHL_team' - should the US win gold which is absolutely possible Miller could be a national hero for awhile.

He's worth more than you think.

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05-05-2013, 10:48 PM
  #145
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Originally Posted by Der Jaeger View Post
The likelihood that Regier gets anything close to what he wants for Miller is pretty low. I wouldn't be surprised to see Miller on the team opening night. Or getting a contract extension. Miller has more value playing that in a trade at this point. Unless Regier is dying to get Miller off the team, and will do so for any offer.

he'll have the same value as he did this past year... how'd you like that? if it turns out Miller added 3 wins this past season (over the average goaltender), that means Miller's value was getting us the 8th overall pick, instead of the 5th overall pick. (if he added 4 wins, he kept us from 3rd overall)

Sure... let's do that again

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05-05-2013, 10:50 PM
  #146
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You people forget one thing - Ryan Miller is a celeb, albeit a minor one but hockey wise he is the most well known American hockey player to the casual sports fan in the US. There are US based franchises who can use any marketing help they can get. Miller will be going to the Sochi Olympics next year, quite possibly as the starting goalie again. Two weeks of nationwide attention where he is 'Ryan Miller of the 'name_of_his_NHL_team' - should the US win gold which is absolutely possible Miller could be a national hero for awhile.

He's worth more than you think.
I had not thought of that angle, not a bad point.

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05-05-2013, 10:50 PM
  #147
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Hadn't thought about that. If you planned on doing that, though, wouldn't you just keep him and let his contract expire, thereby saving the buyout?
Not if you're looking at it as a culture change move or if you want to create a spot for Hackett. The money isn't the issue either way--it's a personnel decision more than anything.

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05-05-2013, 10:52 PM
  #148
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
he'll have the same value as he did this past year... how'd you like that? if it turns out Miller added 3 wins this past season (over the average goaltender), that means Miller's value was getting us the 8th overall pick, instead of the 5th overall pick.

Sure... let's do that again
I'll repost this:

Quote:
If the goal is to bottom out - if Regier's goal is to bottom out - then you take anything for Miller.

If the goal is to maximize Miller's value, he's got more value playing in Buffalo than in a trade, unless a team like Phoenix is willing to deal something more for Miller than we'd expect.
If the goal is to bottom out, you trade Miller for whatever you can get. If the goal is to maximize player value, which trade can Buffalo make that maximizes his value over playing?

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05-05-2013, 10:54 PM
  #149
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Originally Posted by GrigsAndGirgs View Post
Not if you're looking at it as a culture change move or if you want to create a spot for Hackett. The money isn't the issue either way--it's a personnel decision more than anything.
I posted it above- everything depends on Regier's goals. If he's interesting in getting Miller off the team, there are plenty of ways which don't maximize his value.

If Regier is playing shrewd GM interested in maximizing player value, I doubt he moves Miller.

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05-05-2013, 10:56 PM
  #150
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Where he belongs is Pittsburgh, a team who should be winning multiple Stanley Cups but don't - and I guarantee you they won't win it this year either and part of the reason is their goaltending - Fleury isn't an elite goaltender, can never do what Jonathan Quick did last year or Tim Thomas the year before.

Miller loves the limelight, Crosby and the Penguins are the NHL's poster boys - it's a great fit for both parties.

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