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Why does Gillis get a free Pass?

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Old
05-09-2013, 10:58 AM
  #126
Flash Walken
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Flames Fans went through this same exercise, talking about how Calgary was a bad place to place prior to Sutter/Ken King and could never attract free agents before them. Examples of free agents they got to sign on the dotted line? Local boys who wanted to play close to home. Glencross, Bouwmeester, and so on. There was also the allure of the 'under value' contract, to which, at one point, Flames Fans would crow on and on about being able to sign guys for under value. Of course, all those contracts go on to be burdensome because they are too long for too much. Langkow, Iginla, Kipper, Regehr, Phaneuf were all market or below market deals when they were signed and by the end of their term, were severe overpayments, a couple were close to immovable deals. Huselius, who turned out to be the largest factor in Calgary's most potent offense, was not re-signed in favour of flashy new additions who turned out to be less useful than the guy let go. NTCs galore. Does any of this sound familiar?

Think about that when you judge Gillis' tenure. The free agents he attracted were local boys who took less, not because it was Mike Gillis behind the negotiating table, but because they wanted to play near home.

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05-09-2013, 10:58 AM
  #127
Lonny Bohonos
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Should not criticize MG. Its mean. And hes needs more time. Lol

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05-09-2013, 11:42 AM
  #128
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Quote:
Originally Posted by racerjoe View Post
That's all great and all, and I was not saying our prospect pool was great, it is bottom half in the NHL. But if you read the guy I have been replying to he was comparing gillis to nonis in terms of drafting, gillis has been much better.

Your argument is the exact argument I was making. We don't know where so e of these guy will be, however your playing in the AHL argument holds little water as we so far have been using other leagues to de elop players. Gillis so far has Hodgson schreoder corrado Jensen that have played in the NHL with many more looking probable.
My only beef is when posters use the following logic:

"Drafting under Gillis is so much better than Nonis"

"But Nonis produced several NHLers, where are Gillis' NHLers?"

"Oh well it's too early to judge Gillis. But look at all of Nonis' busts"

"But that is because they have had time to bust. Gillis' picks may bust too ..."

"Oh no, look how many guys are in the AHL. Rodin, Sauve, Connauton"

"Ya but Nonis had just as many guys play in the AHL too, they still busted."

"Oh but just wait and see, THESE players will be different."



Rinse and repeat and we basically have the Gillis v Nonis debate. Too early to judge Gillis' drafts but not too early to proclaim him a much better drafter ...

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05-09-2013, 11:52 AM
  #129
Barney Gumble
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Originally Posted by CanaFan View Post
but not too early to proclaim him a much better drafter ...
Not too early to proclaim that the amateur/pro scouting under Nonis was heading distinctly in the wrong direction.

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05-09-2013, 12:17 PM
  #130
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanaFan View Post
My only beef is when posters use the following logic:

"Drafting under Gillis is so much better than Nonis"

"But Nonis produced several NHLers, where are Gillis' NHLers?"

"Oh well it's too early to judge Gillis. But look at all of Nonis' busts"

"But that is because they have had time to bust. Gillis' picks may bust too ..."

"Oh no, look how many guys are in the AHL. Rodin, Sauve, Connauton"

"Ya but Nonis had just as many guys play in the AHL too, they still busted."

"Oh but just wait and see, THESE players will be different."



Rinse and repeat and we basically have the Gillis v Nonis debate. Too early to judge Gillis' drafts but not too early to proclaim him a much better drafter ...
Well Nonis did have the worst draft i've ever seen in 2007... and let's never forget not choosing Kopitar.

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05-09-2013, 12:27 PM
  #131
Barney Gumble
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Originally Posted by LickTheEnvelope View Post
Well Nonis did have the worst draft i've ever seen in 2007... and let's never forget not choosing Kopitar.
2006 was hardly better. Sure there was Grabner but even Nonis didn't think he was worth even bothering to go to bat for him when the Leafs could've got him for free off of waivers (eg., he didn't think all that highly of HIS OWN selection it wouldn't be a stretch to think he would've dealt him for a plate of burgers had he remained as GM of the Canucks rather than lose him to being claimed off of waivers). And right now, Grabner is a $3 million dollar 3rd line winger.

2005 kind of stank. He gets a pass for the 1st rounder that year given that we'll never know how good Bourdon could've been.

2004 was fantastic but you see a pattern here obviously.

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05-09-2013, 12:51 PM
  #132
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Originally Posted by Barney Gumble View Post
Not too early to proclaim that the amateur/pro scouting under Nonis was heading distinctly in the wrong direction.

5 full-time NHLers - 6 if not for the Bourdon tragedy - in 4 drafts is distinctly in the wrong direction? Those are some pretty high standards you have there. I sure hope Gillis can produce at these levels to keep you happy ...

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05-09-2013, 12:55 PM
  #133
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Originally Posted by LickTheEnvelope View Post
Well Nonis did have the worst draft i've ever seen in 2007... and let's never forget not choosing Kopitar.

Well one bad draft doesn't define Nonis any more than 2008 should define Gillis (not a single NHLer outside of top 10 pick Hodgson)...

And Kopitar was a miss, for sure. But the disparity is exacerbated by what befell Bourdon. He was tracking to be at least a regular NHL defenseman (played 29 games his last year) and had top 4 potential easily. And regardless, still not sure where this stash of blue-chip prospects and current NHLers are that makes Gillis so much better. Feel free to point them out anytime ...

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05-09-2013, 12:59 PM
  #134
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Originally Posted by Barney Gumble View Post
2006 was hardly better. Sure there was Grabner but even Nonis didn't think he was worth even bothering to go to bat for him when the Leafs could've got him for free off of waivers (eg., he didn't think all that highly of HIS OWN selection it wouldn't be a stretch to think he would've dealt him for a plate of burgers had he remained as GM of the Canucks rather than lose him to being claimed off of waivers). And right now, Grabner is a $3 million dollar 3rd line winger.

2005 kind of stank. He gets a pass for the 1st rounder that year given that we'll never know how good Bourdon could've been.

2004 was fantastic but you see a pattern here obviously.

2004 was fantastic.

2005 got Raymond and could have got Bourdon. 2 NHLers is above average.

2006. Not sure how you got that Grabner is a 3rd liner. Guy scored 34 as a rookie - that's not often done - and his 16 goals this year would have made him the leading goal scorer on the Canucks. But ya, he's a garbage pick all right. We can only hope he becomes a great player like Jordan Schroeder or Anton Rodin, right?


And yes, I see the pattern. Dismiss the ex-GM's accomplishments and inflate the current GM's. It's not hard to spot ...

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05-09-2013, 01:08 PM
  #135
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Originally Posted by CanaFan View Post
Well one bad draft doesn't define Nonis any more than 2008 should define Gillis (not a single NHLer outside of top 10 pick Hodgson)...

And Kopitar was a miss, for sure. But the disparity is exacerbated by what befell Bourdon. He was tracking to be at least a regular NHL defenseman (played 29 games his last year) and had top 4 potential easily. And regardless, still not sure where this stash of blue-chip prospects and current NHLers are that makes Gillis so much better. Feel free to point them out anytime ...
And in 8 years when Gillis's draft picks have had time to develop we will have this discussion. But at this point Hodgson, Schreoder, have both proved to be NHL players. Corrado and Jensen have both played games, and looked like they will be NHL players. This doesn't include players that will develop either where ALL of Nonis players have developed.

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05-09-2013, 01:13 PM
  #136
Barney Gumble
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Originally Posted by CanaFan View Post
2004 was fantastic.

2005 got Raymond and could have got Bourdon. 2 NHLers is above average.

2006. Not sure how you got that Grabner is a 3rd liner. Guy scored 34 as a rookie - that's not often done - and his 16 goals this year would have made him the leading goal scorer on the Canucks. But ya, he's a garbage pick all right. We can only hope he becomes a great player like Jordan Schroeder or Anton Rodin, right?

And yes, I see the pattern. Dismiss the ex-GM's accomplishments and inflate the current GM's. It's not hard to spot ...
1) Isn't that what I said? 2004 was fantastic

2) Raymond? lol - you and Raymond's mother are about the only person that wants him on the team next season. He gets a mulligan with Bourdon because you don't know whether he'd be an NHLer or not (and let's not forget - he did pass over Kopitar). So that's 1 NHLer (who nobody really wants on this team next season barring a cheapo contract).

3) Not sure how I get an idea he's a 3rd liner? How about the fact he actually *IS* a 3rd liner on the Islanders (regular season) right now and last season?. Sweet jeebus ****, he's getting under 13 minutes of icetime in the playoffs right now.

4) The pattern is obvious that Stevie Wonder could see it - after a brilliant start - the drafting showed a steady decline to the awful depths of 2007.

5) Where did I inflate Gillis' accomplishment? I even said it's "too early to proclaim that" in the post before that quoting *YOU*.


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Old
05-09-2013, 01:16 PM
  #137
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanaFan View Post
2004 was fantastic.

2005 got Raymond and could have got Bourdon. 2 NHLers is above average.

2006. Not sure how you got that Grabner is a 3rd liner. Guy scored 34 as a rookie - that's not often done - and his 16 goals this year would have made him the leading goal scorer on the Canucks. But ya, he's a garbage pick all right. We can only hope he becomes a great player like Jordan Schroeder or Anton Rodin, right?


And yes, I see the pattern. Dismiss the ex-GM's accomplishments and inflate the current GM's. It's not hard to spot ...
I think you missed his point. His point was at one point even Nonis did not think high of him.

I was a big Nonis fan, and actually like Gilis because I see a lot of the same traits. But Gillis is better in a few area's, he is more innovative, and seems to be a good drafter. What you also don't account for is where each team was picking from. Nonis averaged a top 19 pick over 4 drafts, Gillis 22nd, and that takes out the year his first pick was 115th.

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05-09-2013, 01:46 PM
  #138
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I don't see how Gillis escapes this season unscathed, that's not to say he will lose his job but certainly he will get a strike against his name (not sure if he has any there already or not). Ticket demand was trending downwards this season already, loss of playoff revenues and merchandise on top of that and I would imagine Aquillini has lost 10's of millions were you to compare it to the 2011 season. Granted 2011 wasn't a typical season but fan expectations haven't changed much since then really so maybe revenue expectations haven't either. Demand for tickets next season has only decreased since the sweep, should be interesting to see whether:

A) Appropriate changes to personnel can be made to renew interest.
B) Ticket prices decrease
C) The building stops selling out

B & C were toiled with this season already and that was before the sweep. A can be risky if the wrong changes lead to worse results.

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05-09-2013, 01:55 PM
  #139
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I don't see how Gillis escapes this season unscathed, that's not to say he will lose his job
This upcoming season will be the one that makes or breaks Gillis as GM of the Canucks. It'll likely not even be until the end of the season - if we get into a prolonged struggle at the start or during mid-season....

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05-09-2013, 08:54 PM
  #140
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Originally Posted by Barney Gumble View Post
1) Isn't that what I said? 2004 was fantastic

2) Raymond? lol - you and Raymond's mother are about the only person that wants him on the team next season. He gets a mulligan with Bourdon because you don't know whether he'd be an NHLer or not (and let's not forget - he did pass over Kopitar). So that's 1 NHLer (who nobody really wants on this team next season barring a cheapo contract).

3) Not sure how I get an idea he's a 3rd liner? How about the fact he actually *IS* a 3rd liner on the Islanders (regular season) right now and last season?. Sweet jeebus ****, he's getting under 13 minutes of icetime in the playoffs right now.

4) The pattern is obvious that Stevie Wonder could see it - after a brilliant start - the drafting showed a steady decline to the awful depths of 2007.

5) Where did I inflate Gillis' accomplishment? I even said it's "too early to proclaim that" in the post before that quoting *YOU*.

2. I'm no Raymond fan either, but point is he is an NHLer and one who has spent significant time in a top 6 role. Given that the norm is for most picks to bust, he is a absolutely a draft *success*.

3. So how do you get Grabner on a 3rd line? Did TSN show you a line up and he was on the third line from the top? Is that what constitutes whether a player is good or not? How about his actual contributions, which you seem to ignore. 34 goals as a rookie. 16 goals this year (on pace for about 30). In what world is that bad? Christ, that would make him our top goal scorer over such "first liners" as the Sedins or "Second liners" like Kesler. He obviously has his flaws too, but the degree to which you want to discredit him is plain ridiculous ...

As for why Nonis didn't grab him on re-entry waivers, who know? He wasn't the GM of the Leafs at the time, eh? That was Burke. Maybe Nonis wanted him after all, honestly no one knows and it isn't even remotely relevant. Everything he's done in the past 3 seasons says he's a successful goal scorer at the NHL level. Why you think this Nonis waiver thing is even slightly relevant to the past 3 years is a mystery to me ...

4. Cool that you can see such an unmistakable pattern in just 4 drafts. What is that pattern pray do tell? That Nonis had a good eye for talent in 2004 and gradually got stupider every year after? Or that every draft is a mix of talent, luck, and the overall quality of the draft? No, no you're right. The more sensible explanation is that by 2008 Nonis would have been drafting even worse than in 2007, and even worse in 2009. I guess by now he'd be drafting players with one eye missing or 45 year old beer leaguers, since he'd have to continue that "trend" forever ...

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05-09-2013, 08:59 PM
  #141
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Originally Posted by racerjoe View Post
I think you missed his point. His point was at one point even Nonis did not think high of him.

I was a big Nonis fan, and actually like Gilis because I see a lot of the same traits. But Gillis is better in a few area's, he is more innovative, and seems to be a good drafter. What you also don't account for is where each team was picking from. Nonis averaged a top 19 pick over 4 drafts, Gillis 22nd, and that takes out the year his first pick was 115th.
I understand his Nonis point just fine, I just think it is irrelevant to the discussion since Grabner has shown himself to be a full-time NHLer and 20-30 goal scorer SINCE the waiver wire. Do you think he'd turn Grabner down today? That is more relevant to this evaluation than passing on him - he wasn't even the leafs GM either - back when he was a prospect who hadn't done a thing in the NHL. Isn't it sort of obvious which of these is the more relevant factor here? If not then I don't know what to tell you guys ...

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05-09-2013, 09:50 PM
  #142
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So his drafting is questionable at best.

His trading awful without dispute.

His signings good.


That does not make a GM great like so many think. Hasn't had to bring in a coach, starting goalie, or first line forward... he's had it way too easy to be so smug.

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05-09-2013, 10:26 PM
  #143
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3. So how do you get Grabner on a 3rd line? Did TSN show you a line up and he was on the third line from the top?
How many top six forward play less then 15 minutes a game (he's averaging less than 13 minutes in the playoffs)? Fair enough, I should've stated that he's a very good 3rd line winger who has a talent for scoring goals (and that's why he gets paid more than the typical winger that plays 15 minutes a game). And I did give Nonis "credit" for him for drafting a NHLer that year (never said he was a "bad player" in any event).

Quote:
Originally Posted by CanaFan View Post
2. I'm no Raymond fan either, but point is he is an NHLer and one who has spent significant time in a top 6 role. Given that the norm is for most picks to bust, he is a absolutely a draft *success*.
I did give him credit for "one NHLer" that draft year (Raymond).

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Originally Posted by CanaFan View Post
4. Cool that you can see such an unmistakable pattern in just 4 drafts. What is that pattern pray do tell? That Nonis had a good eye for talent in 2004 and gradually got stupider every year after? Or that every draft is a mix of talent, luck, and the overall quality of the draft? No, no you're right. The more sensible explanation is that by 2008 Nonis would have been drafting even worse than in 2007, and even worse in 2009. I guess by now he'd be drafting players with one eye missing or 45 year old beer leaguers, since he'd have to continue that "trend" forever ...
True enough, but IMHO, too many picks were busts right out of the gate (they didn't even manage to have any kind of meaningful career in the AHL). In the greater scheme of things I suppose a "bust is a bust"; but to select players who don't even progress after being drafted tells me the selection was pretty bad to begin with.


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05-09-2013, 10:28 PM
  #144
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanaFan View Post
2004 was fantastic.

2005 got Raymond and could have got Bourdon. 2 NHLers is above average.

2006. Not sure how you got that Grabner is a 3rd liner. Guy scored 34 as a rookie - that's not often done - and his 16 goals this year would have made him the leading goal scorer on the Canucks. But ya, he's a garbage pick all right. We can only hope he becomes a great player like Jordan Schroeder or Anton Rodin, right?


And yes, I see the pattern. Dismiss the ex-GM's accomplishments and inflate the current GM's. It's not hard to spot ...
Outside of Hodgson 2008 was all Nonis picks by proxy.

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05-09-2013, 10:50 PM
  #145
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Outside of Hodgson 2008 was all Nonis picks by proxy.
Well seeing as how Gillis has retained all the same scouts, why not say every draft has been a Nonis-Burke draft by proxy? Because that is the only argument you can make to say that. Or was Gillis unable to sit down with his scouts and describe his philosophy/ strategy for drafting before the 2008 draft? Cause that is all GMs really do anyway. They don't scout the players themselves, whether they are new to the job or 5 years in. They give broad directives on style and then confer with their scouts on who they recommend. So I don't understand why 2008 is on Nonis any more than 2009 or 2010. They were his scouts certainly, but I expect Gillis laid out his game plan and managed the draft selection just like any GM would, new to the job or not...

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05-09-2013, 11:00 PM
  #146
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Originally Posted by Barney Gumble View Post
How many top six forward play less then 15 minutes a game (he's averaging less than 13 minutes in the playoffs)? Fair enough, I should've stated that he's a very good 3rd line winger who has a talent for scoring goals (and that's why he gets paid more than the typical winger that plays 15 minutes a game). And I did give Nonis "credit" for him for drafting a NHLer that year (never said he was a "bad player" in any event).


I did give him credit for "one NHLer" that draft year (Raymond).


True enough, but IMHO, too many picks were busts right out of the gate (they didn't even manage to have any kind of meaningful career in the AHL). In the greater scheme of things I suppose a "bust is a bust"; but to select players who don't even progress after being drafted tells me the selection was pretty bad to begin with.
Fair replies, perhaps I saw more the negative in your references to Raymond and Grabner - I particularly think Grabner is woefully undervalued by many Vancouver fans. That said I do subscribe to the "a bust is a bust" way of viewing prospects. IMO there is no value in drafting a career AHLer over an immediate bust. Neither helps your team. In fact I'd argue an immediate bust might even be better IF it means the GM is at least looking at high risk/high upside picks. Many so-called "safe picks" go on to play in the AHL but never have the upside to crack the NHL. Alex Edler is an example of this kind of drafting. The guy played tier 3 hockey and was a total risk pick. Great chance he never even makes the AHL with his credentials at that time. In his case he certainly proved worth the high risk/ reward approach. Patrick White was the same philosophy, albeit a huge failure. But both come from the same strategy, so you can't have an Edler without the risk of a White. And since high end talent is the hardest thing to come by, I'm perfectly fine with that approach. Gillis favors "safer" picks, which gets you more AHL games but possibly fewer stars as well ...

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05-09-2013, 11:02 PM
  #147
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Originally Posted by CanaFan View Post
Well seeing as how Gillis has retained all the same scouts, why not say every draft has been a Nonis-Burke draft by proxy? Because that is the only argument you can make to say that. Or was Gillis unable to sit down with his scouts and describe his philosophy/ strategy for drafting before the 2008 draft? Cause that is all GMs really do anyway. They don't scout the players themselves, whether they are new to the job or 5 years in. They give broad directives on style and then confer with their scouts on who they recommend. So I don't understand why 2008 is on Nonis any more than 2009 or 2010. They were his scouts certainly, but I expect Gillis laid out his game plan and managed the draft selection just like any GM would, new to the job or not...

2008 is choc full of Nonis style picks, we are just fortunate we avoided Beach. Gillis did redo the focus on the scouting and the following drafts make that obvious. You can decide for yourself whether Gillis' refocusing is better or worse.

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05-09-2013, 11:03 PM
  #148
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I particularly think Grabner is woefully undervalued by many Vancouver fans.
I'll admit I'm guilty of this often in the case of players no longer with the organization (see Cody Hodgson as an example).

I would guess you follow the Fishsticks far closer than me. Any reason why they weren't using a player with goal scoring ability at all on the PP in the playoffs (particularly when Fleury was craptacular in net)? Or do they follow the Canucks model of loading up on one "super PP unit" with no/little time for the 2nd unit?


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05-09-2013, 11:27 PM
  #149
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"Why does Gillis get a free Pass?"

It seems pretty straightforward to me.

Roger's Place is directly across the street from Stadium Station on the Skytrain line.

He probably negotiated it when he was hired.

A smart cat, that Gillis.

G8

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05-09-2013, 11:47 PM
  #150
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2008 is choc full of Nonis style picks, we are just fortunate we avoided Beach. Gillis did redo the focus on the scouting and the following drafts make that obvious. You can decide for yourself whether Gillis' refocusing is better or worse.
Well we disagree on 2008 but I do agree that the jury is still out on the results of his "re-focussing". Which I think is appropriate anyway. I don't want to proclaim Gillis a "bad" drafter, I just want to see some actual players at the NHL level before proclaiming one way or the other ...

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