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Trade Rumours and Proposals Thread Part 17: What does "bold" mean?

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Old
05-10-2013, 11:29 PM
  #176
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Originally Posted by nofool6110 View Post
What would you offer Khubodin in free agency? Enroth or Greiss in trade?

Khubodin has posted decent to solid numbers behind a VERY good NHL defence. God knows what the adjustment rating is for the Oilers, a decent AHL defence.
It's tough to say. There's a few back-ups who make around $800k, but most get something between $1.2 and 1.5M

I don't think I would mind throwing something in the latter range at Khudobin or Greiss(he's actually a UFA too, no need for a trade) as long as it isn't too long of a deal.

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05-10-2013, 11:42 PM
  #177
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He's my pick right now.

The other candidates are all injury/attitude issue guys (Emery, Thomas) or they aren't good enough for my liking. (LaBarbera)

I know he's small, but Buffalo picking up Hackett probably means Enroth is available too.
I would have thought bringing Hackett into Buffalo would be the writing on the wall that Miller is almost certainly on the way out.

They'd likely roll with two young decent co-starters like Enroth and Hackett and see who takes the reigns and develops into a true starter.

That's actually what would be preferable for the Oilers as well if they could find a similarly aged goalie with decent credentials to push Dubnyk.

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05-10-2013, 11:56 PM
  #178
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Will be interesting to see what STL does this offseason. Do they stick with the same blueprint and keep their C's as is, or do they move for a more offensive 1C to allow Backes to assume 2C role? in the latter situation they likely move Berglund. It would really help their PP as well to have a Ribeiro/Gagner type in the fold. Would be interesting to see if they make a move for the Sedins if they become available as well.

Keep in mind McDonald is likely leaving as UFA.

Perron _______ Stewart
Steen Backes Oshie
Schwartz Sobotka Tarasenko
Cracknell Porter Reeves

This is assuming they re-sign Stewart and Cracknell

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05-11-2013, 12:06 AM
  #179
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I think Thomas Greiss is a guy going under the radar in the back-up goalie market.

Has put up some good numbers in San Jose and is still just entering his prime.
He's the one I've been looking at as well. I think you offer $1.5-2 million for 2 years to either him or Khudobin and run a 1A/1B with Dubnyk

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05-11-2013, 12:25 AM
  #180
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Man a real sleeper as a top-pairing defenseman is Jonathan Ericsson on Detroit. I've watched between 20-30 DRW games this season and into the playoffs this year, and he's been a rock on the blue line all year long.

He's better in his own zone than Kronwall, and has done a lot to stabilize that pairing. His puck movement isn't necessarily high-level or at Kronwall's level, but he's more than capable at that facet of the game as well. He's just really good at handling forwards one-on-one, retrieving pucks in the D-zone off of dumps, playing the boards, clearing the front of the net, and skating with the puck out of the zone.

That size is also invaluable.

He's probably acquirable for a much cheaper price than some of the more expensive highly-heralded younger defensemen around the league. Holland probably recognizes his true value and doesn't give it up. But I for one would be stoked at acquiring him to play with Petry.

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05-11-2013, 12:30 AM
  #181
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I wouldn't be surprised if the Oilers have a new starting goalie for next season. No Dubnyk was not the weakest link this past season, but after Carey Price's meltdown and a few other big name goalies having less than stellar seasons it may be the perfect opportunity to try and nab a more established goalie.

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05-11-2013, 12:34 AM
  #182
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I don't know if we have the assets to make a play for a goalie given our other holes.

I have this weird feeling they will make a play for Luongo even if it doesn't make a ton of sense.

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05-11-2013, 12:39 AM
  #183
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I've got a bad feeling that Edmonton makes a play for Jonathan Bernier and offers too much (like the first rounder or Paajarvi)

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05-11-2013, 12:45 AM
  #184
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Originally Posted by Koenig View Post
I wouldn't be surprised if the Oilers have a new starting goalie for next season. No Dubnyk was not the weakest link this past season, but after Carey Price's meltdown and a few other big name goalies having less than stellar seasons it may be the perfect opportunity to try and nab a more established goalie.
Depends on the salary. With the cap coming down, any true starter (with a relatively high salary) isn't really compatible with the Oilers cap situation going forward.

More than ever, teams are going to be seriously questioning paying a goalie $4+ million... and you can probably get any one of several starter goalies as "cap dumps" this summer.

Saying that, do the Oilers really want to tie up more multi-millions in net when they just rid themselves of an anchor contract in Khabi. If that deal was a year longer that would have been more of an albatross and lessens the flexibility to make moves in other areas.

I think they'll likely want to acquire a "cheapish" younger goalie and spend the money in their top 9 and on D.

I don't think they have to be elite in net, just competent. Honestly if Dubnyk plays like he did this year going forward and they add a decent young co-starter or backup that can put up numbers slightly north of a 90-91% sv pct... they are in decent shape in goal and it would be an area of low/lesser concern imo.

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05-11-2013, 12:56 AM
  #185
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How is a 0.920 save percentage not getting respect here? I don't care what type of goals are going in - if in an 65-start season Dubnyk can post a 0.920 save percentage with an average team in front of you you're making the playoffs.

Is it any surprise the save percentage leaders during the regular season are the "star" goalies during playoff runs?

Luongo/Schneider are the only exception - but they both have psychological issues they need to deal with. Dubnyk doesn't really get psyched out. He'll give up that softie goal or whatever - but this whole "it crushes the team" BS is nonsense. When you're saving 92% of the shots you're facing it's going to make a huge difference in an entire season versus a guy saving 89-91%.

People are so reluctant to admit the deficiencies on this team and just want to pin it on a goalie because he wasn't a top-5 pick or some big-name guy.

You put a 2009 playoff MAF on this team with his 0.908% save percentage and this team likely picks 1st overall again. Funny how he won the Stanley Cup that year.

I saw Crawford/Niemi letting in tons of soft goals for young CHI teams from 2009-2012. Did that team make the playoffs throughout those years? Yes. They didn't suffer a nervous breakdown because of a soft goal.


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05-11-2013, 01:01 AM
  #186
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Originally Posted by Descendent* View Post
I wouldn't be surprised if the Oilers have a new starting goalie for next season. No Dubnyk was not the weakest link this past season, but after Carey Price's meltdown and a few other big name goalies having less than stellar seasons it may be the perfect opportunity to try and nab a more established goalie.
With Price, Fleury, Miller and Luongo all potentially on the move via trade/buyout, it wouldn't surprise me to see them go after one. My hope is VanC buys out Lu.

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05-11-2013, 01:06 AM
  #187
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With Price, Fleury, Miller and Luongo all potentially on the move via trade/buyout, it wouldn't surprise me to see them go after one. My hope is VanC buys out Lu.
I'd take Any of those guys over Dubnyk and I don't care what the stats say.

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05-11-2013, 01:08 AM
  #188
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I'd take Any of those guys over Dubnyk and I don't care what the stats say.
So would Lowe/Tambellini - they'd take Fleury in a jiffy over Dubnyk. That's why the Oilers have made the playoffs so many years in a row!

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05-11-2013, 01:11 AM
  #189
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A lot of people come up with the "soft goal syndrome" theory for Dubby... and that he deflates the team with his error prone plays.

Well I watched Quick do the same thing several times and people were basically anointing him as the chosen one who could do no wrong last season.

Goal is a tough position and every error sticks out like a midget in a slam dunk contest because it leads to an instant tally against on the scoreboard. Instant goat or instant hero.

A goalie can bail out dmen 10 times in a game (which Dubnyk HAS done) and then let one "softie" in and they are considered to "deflate" the team.

He obviously faces a pile of rubber and stops his fair share and then some.

Maybe he does face a slightly lower percentage of quality shots... being peppered from everywhere because of the porous team defense on the Oilers. Maybe that does lead to teams taking shots from outside and all angles and thus driving up his save pct because of a slightly higher number of lower quality shots to high quality shots ratio.

That's a theory that may have some validity but saying that... he's still stopping pucks and facing a lot of rubber. Until he gets down close to that 90% range, or even 91%... I am not seeing him as a major part of this team failing. It's much more obvious that team defense (and offense) is inferior.

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05-11-2013, 01:14 AM
  #190
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So would Lowe/Tambellini - they'd take Fleury in a jiffy over Dubnyk. That's why the Oilers have made the playoffs so many years in a row!
Yea they've had such a stellar record with Dubnyk in net! Tambo must of been a genius giving him a nice raise to 3.5M a year. That's why he's still the GM and they're on their way to the playoffs.

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05-11-2013, 01:19 AM
  #191
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A lot of people come up with the "soft goal syndrome" theory for Dubby... and that he deflates the team with his error prone plays.

Well I watched Quick do the same thing several times and people were basically anointing him as the chosen one who could do no wrong last season.

Goal is a tough position and every error sticks out like a midget in a slam dunk contest because it leads to an instant tally against on the scoreboard. Instant goat or instant hero.

A goalie can bail out dmen 10 times in a game (which Dubnyk HAS done) and then let one "softie" in and they are considered to "deflate" the team.

He obviously faces a pile of rubber and stops his fair share and then some.

Maybe he does face a slightly lower percentage of quality shots... being peppered from everywhere because of the porous team defense on the Oilers. Maybe that does lead to teams taking shots from outside and all angles and thus driving up his save pct because of a slightly higher number of lower quality shots to high quality shots ratio.

That's a theory that may have some validity but saying that... he's still stopping pucks and facing a lot of rubber. until he get down close to that 90% range, or even 91%... I am not seeing him as a major part of this team failing. It's much more obvious that team defense (and offense) is inferior.
Completely agree. This deflation theory is completely baseless. Countless times young teams have been able to win playoff series and championships riding other goalies letting in soft goals.

CHI won in 2010 with Niemi at 0.910 (0.912 in RS in 39GP)
PIT won in 2009 with Fleury at 0.908 (0.912 in RS in 61GP)

Does elite-level goaltending win championships for just "good" teams? Yes. That's when you have a top-3 goaltender on your team. Quick and Thomas come to mind as goaltenders that have won that way (0.940+). This is an impossible asset to acquire any way but pure luck. No team is trading a goalie like this.

Most teams win with a combination of good 0.920+ goaltending and a great team (DET, ANA, CAR). Hey! That's Dubnyk's save percentage!

In CHI/PIT's case, they took average-at-best goaltending and won with an elite-level roster of skaters.

Osgood had a penchant for letting in soft goals in DET. Cam Ward has done it his whole career. Crawford also does the same. Niemi minimally but it still happens.

Absolutely overrated thing this "deflation" theory.

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05-11-2013, 01:19 AM
  #192
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Yea they've had such a stellar record with Dubnyk in net! Tambo must of been a genius giving him a nice raise to 3.5M a year. That's why he's still the GM and they're on their way to the playoffs.
And that's why Fleury is the Pens starter right now!

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05-11-2013, 01:27 AM
  #193
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Completely agree. This deflation theory is completely baseless. Countless times young teams have been able to win playoff series and championships riding other goalies letting in soft goals.

CHI won in 2010 with Niemi at 0.910 (0.912 in RS in 39GP)
PIT won in 2009 with Fleury at 0.908 (0.912 in RS in 61GP)

Does elite-level goaltending win championships for just "good" teams? Yes. That's when you have a top-3 goaltender on your team. Quick and Thomas come to mind as goaltenders that have won that way (0.940+)

Most teams win with a combination of good 0.920+ goaltending and a great team (DET, ANA, CAR).

In CHI/PIT's case, they took average-at-best goaltending and won with an elite-level roster of skaters.

Osgood has a penchant for letting in soft goals in DET. Cam Ward has done it his whole career. Crawford also does the same. Niemi minimally but it still happens.

Absolutely overrated thing this "deflation" theory.
You can hate on Fleury all you want and most of it might have merit, but he was a big part of the Penguins winning in 2009.

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05-11-2013, 01:34 AM
  #194
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You can hate on Fleury all you want and most of it might have merit, but he was a big part of the Penguins winning in 2009.
I think it was more that 3.29 goals/game clip that PIT scored at, with a great defense including:

Gonchar (prime) Orpik (prime)
Scuderi (prime) Letang (approaching prime)
Gill (prime) Boucher/Eaton

A 0.908 S% is bad. Very rare that teams win with goaltending that poor - it's the lowest save percentage of any Cup-winning goalie since 1998 (as far back as stats go back on NHL.com, probably extends further past that)

That save on Lidstrom in the final seconds Game 7 still makes me weep though

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05-11-2013, 01:38 AM
  #195
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I think it was more that 3.29 goals/game clip that PIT scored at, with a great defense including:

Gonchar (prime) Orpik (prime)
Scuderi (prime) Letang (approaching prime)
Gill (prime) Boucher/Eaton

A 0.908 S% is near-inexcusable. Very rare that teams win with goaltending that poor.

That save on Lidstrom in the final seconds Game 7 still makes me weep though
I watched a ton of penguin games that playoffs and Fleury really carried the team through the 1st round until they got going. He may not have had the greatest stats but he did what Dubnyk never seems to do which is make the big saves when he needed to.

Edit: Heres a link for proof if you don't believe me http://the700level.com/top-stories/m...e-crosby-goal/

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05-11-2013, 01:44 AM
  #196
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I watched a ton of penguin games that playoffs and Fleury really carried the team through the 1st round until they got going. He may not have had the greatest stats but he did what Dubnyk never seems to do which is make the big saves when he needed to.

Edit: Heres a link for proof if you don't believe me http://the700level.com/top-stories/m...e-crosby-goal/
Yeah he had some good games in those playoffs, I'll give him that. That being said - you kind of need to make the playoffs first before developing a reputation like that.

Look at Mike Smith and Craig Anderson - dudes were nobodies until they had some amazing playoff performances (Anderson 2010, Smith 2012).

You need a good team around a goalie before you pass judgement on them.

The Oilers are terrible. The forward group and defense are just a terrible combination of players.

All we can do is take the most relevant individual goaltending stat available - save percentage - to assess Dubnyk.

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05-11-2013, 01:59 AM
  #197
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For example:

Khabibulin was actually stealing games for CHI in the 2009 playoffs. His 0.920 save percentage and performance in series' against CGY/VAN are a testament to that.

He comes to a sub-par team in EDM and posts a decent 0.909 save percentage - but suddenly seems incapable of stealing a game or helping the team. When a team is THAT DAMN BAD, it's hard to "steal" a game.

Look at other non-competitive teams in the league (this excludes CBJ), none of them had goaltending like we did.

Varlamov was 0.903 for COL after 0.913 on a decent team last year
Theodore was 0.839 for FLA after 0.916 on a playoff team last year.
Lindback was 0.902 on TBL after 0.912 on a playoff NSH team last year.
Rinne was 0.910 for NSH after 0.922 on a playoff NSH team last year.
Ward was 0.908 for CAR after 0.923 on a playoff team 2yrs back.
Kipprusoff was 0.882 for CGY after 0.922 on a decent team last year.

So it's clear that on bad teams these goalies put out bad save percentages., whereas they've shown ability to be 0.915+ on good teams.

Dubnyk puts up 0.920 save percentage IN SPITE OF A BAD TEAM. What the hell does he put up on a team with a good system and good players? A playoff team?

He is definitely one of the last guys I'd be looking to move/upgrade heading into the off-season. I feel guys like Rinne, Ward, Fleury, and Varlamov would suffer horribly if they were on the Oilers.

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05-11-2013, 02:31 AM
  #198
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Dubnyk has never "needed to" make any big saves because the team has basically always been out of contention.

Meanwhile, the one time that the current incarnation of the Oilers actually was in "contention", they proceeded to go on a run where they scored 1 goal or less in 8 of their next 10 games. Not surprisingly, they lost those 8 games. So basically the only time in the last 3+ years that the team was playing meaningful games, it was the offense that completely disappeared. We're also talking about a team that was outshot (often by a wide margin) in 34 out of 48 games. If anything, Dubnyk was probably more often deflated by the play in front of him.

I mean, he (and Khabi) would have had to pull off a shutout streak of historic proportions to have given the team any chance of success in these "games that mattered". If anything about the Oilers season should be "deflating", to me it would be the total disappearance of any offensive ability or compete level in that run of 10 games, every single one of which saw the team being outshot, by an average margin of 33 to 25.

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05-11-2013, 03:11 AM
  #199
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Since the 2005 lockout, here are the starting goalies on bottom-10 teams to have put up >0.920 save percentages:

Dubnyk (0.920) for EDM in 2013
Vokoun (0.922) for FLA in 2011
Vokoun (0.925) for FLA in 2010
Lundqvist (0.921) for NYR in 2010
Bryzgalov (0.921) for PHX in 2008

Not a bad list of goalies...

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05-11-2013, 03:59 AM
  #200
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I agree that we need to see a decent D in front of Dubnyk before we can pass judgement. I wouldn't mind trying to get one of the promising UFA back ups in Khubodin or Greiss and also go after Joakim Eriksson or Antti Raanta from Europe. A 1-2-3 of Dubnyk-one of the UFAs-one of the euros would solidify our goalie depth. Raanta and Eriksson might be looking for one way deals though, certainly Raanta, so not sure if it's possible.

I do believe it's much more important to upgrade our D than anything else though.

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