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Buffalo Sabres - "The Blueprint"

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Old
05-15-2013, 09:47 AM
  #26
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
what is your reference point for your perceived trade value of Vanek.

I'm glad you admit that you have no clue what we will get in return for Vanek, right before imagining all sorts of ludicrous returns.

I pay plenty of attention to the history of trades, that's how I know that the 1 year remaining is a MAJOR factor in his trade value.

Gaborik had more than a year remaining and he returned a good young NHLer, a middle tier young defensemen, and a 4th line scrub. No 1sts, no high end prospects.... just a good solid hockey trade.

Olli Jokinen was traded at Vanek's age, and he had over a year left on his deal.... he was coming off 3 straight 35+ goal seasons.... he had 80-90 pt seasons... and he was traded for Keith Ballard, Boynton, and a 2nd... and then for Lombardi, Prust, 1st.... neither of which are huge returns.

Vanek's trade value is absolutely affected by the 1 remaining year... GMs aren't giving up decades of controllable assets (two 1sts = 14 years of asset control), for one year of Vanek.

You should wake up.
Excellent response and points. Most Sabres fans are out to lunch with their expectations of what Thomas Vanek will return in a trade. The return won't be CLOSE to what most are wanting or expecting.

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05-15-2013, 09:50 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by NOVA Sabres Fan View Post
I don't think there is anyway Stafford would get a 1st rounder back, but all one needs to do is look at what was being said about Gaustad at the deadline. Like I said before, there are always GM's that will overpay. It happens every single year.
And again, deadline deals are not comparable to summer trades. That's why a defenseman like Leopold gets dealt for 2nd rounders again and again at the deadline while someone far better at defense like Toni Lydman fetches a 4th in August. Relative value at time to market -- look at what players go for during summer roster building historically to gauge more of what the return might be.

Stafford is unlikely to return just a draft pick due to his down year. If/when they move him, it's likely to be for returning salary, perhaps another young-ish player with comparable money left on their deal and warts of their own. Big-time slumping players do not return flashy parts like 1st rounders. There is no demand for a slumping winger who may recapture 20+ goal form, especially not with the cap retraction this summer. It might be a lesser player, equally struggling and something mid-round that happens, but he's not returning a first from anyone.

Miller.... the goaltending market is choked with guys. There are candidates in UFA -- Smith, Nabokov, Backstrom -- as well as possible trade targets -- Luongo/Schneider, Bernier -- that will push trade value down across the board. Factor in salary and again, there is a force pushing down on value. If he returns more than a 2nd pairing defenseman and a 2nd round pick, I'd be amazed -- that's about the top end of what I see as goaltending value at the moment. Just because his value to the Sabres is high does not mean the value for his return at his position is high for anyone else.

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05-15-2013, 09:53 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Gustafsson View Post
Excellent response and points. Most Sabres fans are out to lunch with their expectations of what Thomas Vanek will return in a trade. The return won't be CLOSE to what most are wanting or expecting.
True enough. Similarly with Miller. Rather than look at the body of trades over the recent past, it seems like the "high-end prospect, first rounder, and extra" mantra has arose. There is nothing to support it.

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05-15-2013, 09:53 AM
  #29
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Stafford, Ennis and Sekera won't return first round picks.

Scratch that, Sekera might. I thought he would have been a UFA soon 2 years, someone might use a late first to stabilize a dcore.

Ennis not likely. If he were better, maybe. Then again, if he were better the Sabres would probably want to keep him.

Stafford is too inconsistent to return a first unless the Sabres eat some of the salary and/or something else comes with him.

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05-15-2013, 01:58 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Analyzer View Post
Stafford, Ennis and Sekera won't return first round picks.

Scratch that, Sekera might. I thought he would have been a UFA soon 2 years, someone might use a late first to stabilize a dcore.

Ennis not likely. If he were better, maybe. Then again, if he were better the Sabres would probably want to keep him.

Stafford is too inconsistent to return a first unless the Sabres eat some of the salary and/or something else comes with him.
wat. What do you think Ennis would return then? Ennis is worth a 10-20 pick in this years draft, but we won't try and trade him for that anyways because we need scoring on this team and he's one of the few that can supply it.

If Ennis is traded, its for a bigger scoring winger, AKA Ryan, not for picks.

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05-15-2013, 02:28 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by NOVA Sabres Fan View Post
I don't think there is anyway Stafford would get a 1st rounder back, but all one needs to do is look at what was being said about Gaustad at the deadline. Like I said before, there are always GM's that will overpay. It happens every single year.


I dont think stafford would get move this offseason unless he is apart of a larger deal or its a change of scenary trade with two players each having 2 yrs on contract.

If buffalo hold s onto him and he has a good season they could easily get a 1st at the trade deadline. Would darcy be wiling to trade him when he is hot?

Gausted + 4th = 1st...Stafford + 4th = 1st easily at the deadline.



I agree if you accumilate picks and it allows for quicker turnaround of the team.

What I was saying are that accumilating 2nd round picks isnt all that wise because late 1st-mid 2nd round picks can be very good players but they also can be busts.

I posted something on the sabres page that analyzed there draft history.

If you group drafts into 3 yr periods looking at the first 3 rounds where teams have 9 picks (more/less with trades)...how many top 3 lines, top 3 pair Dmen, starting goalie they produced out of these 16 positions in these draft periods.

2002-2004 6 players (Ballard, Paille, Vanek, MacAurthur, Stafford, Sekera)
2005-2007 1.5 players (Weber, Enroth --gave him 1/2 point because of potentail starter--Brennan is uncertain as being a top 6 Dmanthus 0 for him)
2008-2010 6 players (Myers, Ennis, Kassian/Hodgson, McNabb, Foligno, Pysyk)
2011-2013 8 players at least (Armia, Catenacci, Grigorenko, girgensons, McCabe, Kea, 2 1st 2013 , 2 2nds 2013 , 3rd 2013)

The problem was in 2005-2007...this is the void in this team....now the players would be in their mid 20s and entering their prime. this is the source of the void in this team.

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05-15-2013, 03:02 PM
  #32
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If they trade Miller and Vanek will they be over the cap floor?

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05-15-2013, 03:23 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
If they trade Miller and Vanek will they be over the cap floor?
They're 4 million over the floor right now with Hodgson, Enroth, Flynn and Weber as RFA's. They also have two openings among their forwards, and another on defense, plus whatever player is brought in to replace Miller as the other goaltender -- 8 guys can usually eat up 9 million in needed cap space to stay above the floor if they push Miller and Vanek's $13M out.

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05-15-2013, 04:28 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
If they trade Miller and Vanek will they be over the cap floor?
As of right now they are at $48.7M
trading Vanek and Miller would drop $13.4M (if they trade them and hold 50% they drop $6.7M

Their RFAs:

Weber $0.95M---resigned at $1.5M-$2.0M
Hodgson $1.67M---resigned at $3.5M
Enroth $0.68M---depending on if Miller is still here...$0.90-$2.0M
Flynn $1.03M---resigned at $1.2M

their UFAs:

Scott $0.60M--resigned for the same
Pardy $2.0M
Sulzer $0.70M
---one of the two Dmen signed at around a $1.0M contract and the other signed to an AHL contract.

The signings total $9M


roster additions next year:

Armia...$1.24M

If they don't retain any of Miller or Vaneks salary they will likely be above the cap floor next year.


In any deal of Miller or Vanek---they will likely aquire an NHL ready player or two.
or a vet--these players would be on the club next year.

McCormick and Gerbe would be candidates for an old fashioned roster buy out if their numbers are above 23 players.

They appear to be near the cap floor which is another reason why they likely are not going to do any amnesty buyout of Stafford or Leino next year. Instead they wait until summer 2014 to possibly do that.

because of this --it makes summer of 2014 more interesting because the team will be near the cap floor.....they likely will try to go out then and make some trades and UFA signins. Their cap goal for 2014 would be to stay around $51M---then they have $10M of cap space to be a UFA player. With Leino and Stafford trade/buyouts they would have almost $19M to play with.


Last edited by Djp: 05-15-2013 at 04:35 PM.
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05-15-2013, 05:48 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Analyzer View Post
Stafford, Ennis and Sekera won't return first round picks.

Scratch that, Sekera might. I thought he would have been a UFA soon 2 years, someone might use a late first to stabilize a dcore.

Ennis not likely. If he were better, maybe. Then again, if he were better the Sabres would probably want to keep him.

Stafford is too inconsistent to return a first unless the Sabres eat some of the salary and/or something else comes with him.
Not sure why you think Ennis sucks, he was drafted at 26th overall and has only gotten better?

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05-15-2013, 07:06 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Analyzer View Post
Ennis not likely. If he were better, maybe. Then again, if he were better the Sabres would probably want to keep him.

Stafford is too inconsistent to return a first unless the Sabres eat some of the salary and/or something else comes with him.
ennis can easily return 1st round talent...he turns 24 at the start of next year....thus still young. He was a 1st round pick and has top 6 talent.

A reason why he is moveable has to do with what position he plays and what the future has. His contract expires after next season where he still is an RFA. So he is candidate to get moved.

with Stafford...they may hold onto him until he gets hot next year and then moves him by the deadline. they did a Gaustead + 4th for a 1st...they could do the same with Stafford.


the future of this team looks something like this in 14/15:

xxx-Hodgson-Armia
Ennis-Grigorenko-xxxx
Girgenson-Larrson-Ott
Foligno-Cattenacci-Flynn

One of the xxx could be Leino if he isnt amnesty buyout in 2014.

You could figure one of their 1st round picks would be a winger. If they end up moving up to draft one of the Centers or one fals to them then its possible one fo the other centers could be moved to winger or traded for a winger.

Vanek , Miller, and Stafford would be moved for players/picks.


If Ennis was moved it would likely be something to get a pure winger who could score....like a Bobby Ryan....in that deal it would be Ennis+ another player/pick. Its not an issue of he isnt good---its more of the team wanted to improve overall.


In looking at the roster its also why the idea of a complete gut and somethinglike a 5 yr rebuolding project is a fallacy. All those players listed in the lineup would be 25 and under except Ott. Its really not going to take them that long to rebuild the club.

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05-15-2013, 09:16 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by NOVA Sabres Fan View Post
Long time lurker here.


5. Miller. While I personally am not a huge Miller fan, he is capable of doing exceptional things when he's got a decent defense in front of him. His numbers don't stand out (except for his Vezina year), but if you look closer you can see he's pretty much top 10 almost every year. We all know about his personal life (wife living in LA), I don't see him being dealt to any of the Cali teams. None of them need his services, as they all have pretty solid netminders. Right now my gut tells me something along the lines of Edmonton/Chicago/St. Louis/Pittsburgh (if MAF keeps letting in softies like he has)/Philly/NYI will be one of the teams employing Mr. Miller next season. While many people state that he won't get much in return because goalies don't have much value in the summer doesn't add up for me. Miller will not get the same return as Vanek, but I guarantee you that Miller will have more of an impact than Vanek will for his new team. Franchise goalies don't get traded every year, and someone like Miller can get on a hot streak and very likely make a deep playoff run with his new squad. That being said, I see his return being something like a 1st/2nd & a top prospect, or 1st & 2-3 prospects (1 highly touted & 1-2 mid range guys).

Given Anaheim's early exit, perhaps Buffalo and Anaheim swap Hiller and Miller? I don't know if the Ducks are ready to hand over the organization to Fasth just yet. Let Miller finish out his contract and see what happens from there?

Personally I would love to see Jon (not Steve) Bernier in Buffalo. Seeing as how you can drive a Winnebago through Enroth's five hole, I think running with someone like Bernier would be a nice part of the re-building process. Giving something to LA that keeps them under the cap would be difficult, so I don't see it happening easily.

We can have a beer at Jimmy's Old Town Tavern on opening night and laugh about how none of this came to fruition and Nick Tarnasky is our top line left winger.

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Old
05-17-2013, 08:20 AM
  #38
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Found this article yesterday, has some interesting tidbits in it...

http://www.chatsports.com/buffalo-sa...raft-2-7880172

I especially liked the part about Detroit/Holland, as their methods are what I mentioned prior as what I'd like to see the Sabres brass emulate.


Ken Holland has only picked in the first round six times in that same span. Instead, Holland prefers to load up in the second to fifth round range and trust his scouts to look for depth guys. This is smart for two reasons. 1) It lessens the risk of blowing a valuable first round pick. Would you rather use a first round pick to maybe get a starter, or would you use it, along with a mid-level prospect to get a bona fide starter from a basement dweller looking to shed a big contract? 2) It adds a quantity to the uncertainty of prospect development. Would you rather have one blue chip kid to groom in hopes he’ll become a top player or would you prefer four guys whose ceilings are respectively only a little lower? There’s no right answer to that question, but the Red Wings have a philosophy and they stick to their own answer. They have an answer to both of those questions and they stick with it.

In all, the Red Wings have been highly efficient with their drafts without throwing extra resources at moving up . Instead, it seems the Wings prefer to trade their first round picks for proven veterans who can help them win in the present while using second and third round picks in abundance to build depth on the team. It’s an approach that not only keeps them competitive every year, but it continues to allow them to build for the future. HUGE Advantage Holland.

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05-17-2013, 09:21 AM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NOVA Sabres Fan View Post
Found this article yesterday, has some interesting tidbits in it...

http://www.chatsports.com/buffalo-sa...raft-2-7880172

I especially liked the part about Detroit/Holland, as their methods are what I mentioned prior as what I'd like to see the Sabres brass emulate.


Ken Holland has only picked in the first round six times in that same span. Instead, Holland prefers to load up in the second to fifth round range and trust his scouts to look for depth guys. This is smart for two reasons. 1) It lessens the risk of blowing a valuable first round pick. Would you rather use a first round pick to maybe get a starter, or would you use it, along with a mid-level prospect to get a bona fide starter from a basement dweller looking to shed a big contract? 2) It adds a quantity to the uncertainty of prospect development. Would you rather have one blue chip kid to groom in hopes heíll become a top player or would you prefer four guys whose ceilings are respectively only a little lower? Thereís no right answer to that question, but the Red Wings have a philosophy and they stick to their own answer. They have an answer to both of those questions and they stick with it.

In all, the Red Wings have been highly efficient with their drafts without throwing extra resources at moving up . Instead, it seems the Wings prefer to trade their first round picks for proven veterans who can help them win in the present while using second and third round picks in abundance to build depth on the team. Itís an approach that not only keeps them competitive every year, but it continues to allow them to build for the future. HUGE Advantage Holland.
pretty funny.... the article knocks Regier for all the players chosen, and then feeds the "Holland is a genius" myth. I;d be the best GM ever if I had Niklas Lidstom, Pavel Datsyuk, and Hank Ztterberg for their entire careers... Hollands poor drafting is the reason that franchise sunk to 8th place as Lidstrom retired, and their core got older...

2005
Jakub Kindl over James Neal, Vlasic, Niskanen
Justin Abdelkader over Paul Stastny
Kristofer Lofberg over Keith Yandle, Sobotka,
Mattias Ritola over Niklas Hjalmarrson

2006
2nd Corey Emmerton over Lucic, Kulemin, Petry
2nd Dick Axelson over Marchand, Clutterbuck

2007
1st Brendan Smith over PK Subban, Wayne Simmonds

2008
1st Tom McCallum over Bishop, Allen, Schultz, Josi, Hamonic

2009
2nd Landon Ferraro over Ryan Oreilly

2010 Riley Sheehan over Evgeny Kuznetsov, Etem, Coyle

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