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Trade Rumours and Proposals Thread Part 17: What does "bold" mean?

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Old
05-16-2013, 10:37 PM
  #601
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
Or you may find that it is complete and utter baloney.
I like you Mr. Lahey...but you say silly things sometimes.

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05-16-2013, 10:46 PM
  #602
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I like you Mr. Lahey...but you say silly things sometimes.

--Randy
Believe it or not some people have heard about these "advanced stats" and they don't have much use for many of them. Place mind = blown gif here.

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05-16-2013, 10:53 PM
  #603
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I like how the people who deride advanced stats are, by and large, old people who done seen things good.

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05-16-2013, 10:59 PM
  #604
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Believe it or not some people have heard about these "advanced stats" and they don't have much use for many of them. Place mind = blown gif here.
Whether or not "they" have "use" for them doesn't amount to a hill of beans in terms of their usefulness. Care to subtract anymore from the discussion?

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05-16-2013, 11:17 PM
  #605
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My eyes and advanced statistics tell me that if there's any god damn way to get Tyler Myers out of Buffalo, you get Tyler Myers out of Buffalo.

Ruff did such a pathetic job working with Myers. "My name is Lindy Ruff, and I'm going to try to convert a Calder-winning offensive defenceman into a stay-at-home defenceman by ignoring everything about him except his Chara-esque wingspan."

Eberle for Myers? Done.


nope to bold.

7th overall + choice of 2 of Harti/N.Schultz/Hemsky (2.5m retained) + both 2nds for Myers + !6th overall (Min pick)

7th overall + player is slightly less then Myers
Harti + both 2nds slightly greater then 16th overall.

thoughts on value?

Edmonton drafts Best center available

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05-16-2013, 11:28 PM
  #606
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Well the parameters for determining QOC has changed over time has it not? Probably because there was a time that Matt Cooke was "tougher comp" than Malkin.

Then there was the time that OnSv% became the stat de jour in an effort to explain Horcoff's horrid +/- numbers.

Corsi was developed to gauge how hard a goalie was working based on the number of shots directed towards him. It really was never meant to gauge the effectiveness of individual skaters.
The parameters of QoC have not changed. QoC is how many minutes the players opponents play. If someome is always on the ice against the 22 minute a night guys, they will have a high QoC, if they play mostly 12 or 13 minute guys their number will drop. It works under the assumption that the best players generally play the most minutes.

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05-16-2013, 11:43 PM
  #607
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Originally Posted by Conkanen View Post
Whether or not "they" have "use" for them doesn't amount to a hill of beans in terms of their usefulness. Care to subtract anymore from the discussion?
Some people dont think they have any usefulness. They have their reasons for reaching that conclusion. Ive identified some of the contradictions here. What have you added to the conversation? Other than inferring that those who dont find them useful are "unable" to understand? I can assure you that isnt the case.

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05-16-2013, 11:46 PM
  #608
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The parameters of QoC have not changed. QoC is how many minutes the players opponents play. If someome is always on the ice against the 22 minute a night guys, they will have a high QoC, if they play mostly 12 or 13 minute guys their number will drop. It works under the assumption that the best players generally play the most minutes.
That is not how QC was derived in the past, and to my knowledge, it is not how it is valuated now.

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05-17-2013, 01:05 AM
  #609
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I'd love Myers , has all the tools to be a dominant Defenceman, and his talent is undeniable. i think the case with him is just maturity, too much too soon with the large contract.Same thing happened to eberle i think this year but he'll bounce back. Its not a secret either that some buffalo fans are already looking to unload him but obviously with a good return, but a BIG no to trading eberle, we can get him i think without using our kids or the 7th pick.

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05-17-2013, 01:32 AM
  #610
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
Well the parameters for determining QOC has changed over time has it not? Probably because there was a time that Matt Cooke was "tougher comp" than Malkin.

Then there was the time that OnSv% became the stat de jour in an effort to explain Horcoff's horrid +/- numbers.

Corsi was developed to gauge how hard a goalie was working based on the number of shots directed towards him. It really was never meant to gauge the effectiveness of individual skaters.
This. There's 9 other skaters on the ice at any one time for these players. How is it the fault of one guy, likely guarding/responsible for one opposition player, that someone else screws up on the ice and a shot against is incurred? Makes no sense to me.

I'm sure the majority of the time it's a correct stat, and the best 2-way forwards will likely end up with great CORSI numbers - but there's so much room for error to use it as a relevant accurate stat.

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05-17-2013, 01:35 AM
  #611
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I'd love Myers , has all the tools to be a dominant Defenceman, and his talent is undeniable. i think the case with him is just maturity, too much too soon with the large contract.Same thing happened to eberle i think this year but he'll bounce back. Its not a secret either that some buffalo fans are already looking to unload him but obviously with a good return, but a BIG no to trading eberle, we can get him i think without using our kids or the 7th pick.
He's only 22yo, and big defensemen like that take time to develop into the stars they eventually become.

I don't know if you could pull him out of BUF without giving up one of the top-4 forwards, but if it's Eberle going the other way, I'd be working hard to get someone like Ott or Stafford included in the package.

Eberle as an asset clearly > Myers. There's a lot of shortcomings with Myers' game and his value right now is at an all-time low. Best time to make the deal for him.

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05-17-2013, 03:45 AM
  #612
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Conkanen View Post
I like you Mr. Lahey...but you say silly things sometimes.

--Randy
Quote:
Originally Posted by Conkanen View Post
Whether or not "they" have "use" for them doesn't amount to a hill of beans in terms of their usefulness. Care to subtract anymore from the discussion?
So you post the above crap and then claim that I am taking away from the conversation? I guess you magically missed my post on the last page on why I'm not a fan of Corsi or perhaps you are above replying to such a post because anyone that doesn't bite hook, line, and sinker on Corsi is beneath you?

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I like how the people who deride advanced stats are, by and large, old people who done seen things good.
I wouldn't consider myself old although I might be considered old by a teenager. Again, I made a post on the previous page, if you'd like to debate the merits of that post and your beloved Corsi, feel free to. IIRC I'd be younger than most of the "stats guys" (LT, Staples, McCurdy, etc.) although I have no clue how old guys like Zona and Willis are. Age is irrelevant as dumb young people generally become dumb old people and smart young people generally become even smarter as they age.

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05-17-2013, 03:52 AM
  #613
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Originally Posted by The Perfect Human View Post
This. There's 9 other skaters on the ice at any one time for these players. How is it the fault of one guy, likely guarding/responsible for one opposition player, that someone else screws up on the ice and a shot against is incurred? Makes no sense to me.

I'm sure the majority of the time it's a correct stat, and the best 2-way forwards will likely end up with great CORSI numbers - but there's so much room for error to use it as a relevant accurate stat.
In its current form it is still not a very useful stat. For example if you have Line A that has a combined 250 shots on goal and another 500 blocked and they scored a grand total of 15 goals as a trio yet you have Line B that has a combined 250 shots and 300 shots blocked and they scored 30 goals, Line A would be seen as superior in spite of the fact that the players on that line have hands of stone and have more of their shots blocked.

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05-17-2013, 06:07 AM
  #614
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I like how the people who deride advanced stats are, by and large, old people who done seen things good.
I am old by this forum's standards for sure. I honestly don't see how relevant that is given that I probably have much more contact with modern uses of mathematics than most on here.

The problem I have with advanced stats is not the core statistics themselves but rather how they are used and manipulated.

For example, Corsi is actually a pretty basic stat. And if you look at it the right way it does tell you something about what went on on the ice. If you look at a table like you might find in the third chart here...

http://www.boysonthebus.com/2013/04/...anucks-apr-27/

you can get a bit of a picture of where the puck was when certain players were on the ice. Some nights these charts are quite clear in that they will show domination by a particular line or group of 5 vs another. But I find they are much better placed in context after having watcehd the game. For example on this night aside from suggesting that Justin Schultz had a very good night I am not sure that you could tell that both Hall and Yakupov also had great nights as well.

Early on in the year when the Oilers had mostly fixed lines and fixed pairing Corsi could suggest to you that the Hall, RNH, Eberle line was spending more time in the opposition's end than in their own, where as the Gagner, Hemsky and Yakupov line was spneding a lot of time in it's end. But what it did not tell you was that the second line was scoring while the first line was not. Nor could you really conclude who was actually responsible for the positive results of the first line or he negative results from the second line.

Once the season progressed lines change and pairings get mixed. In theory this is suppose to reveal more about individual contributions to possession as linemates vary, but unfortuantely the stat tends to be very inefficient in doing this. The mistake therefore is giving much credence to individual numbers without substantial context.

Of course the guys who use these numbers recognize some of the weaknesses and they modify them to smooth out some of the bumps. QoC is an obvious modification to think of. It makes perfect sense to adjust a measure of how effective a player might be to the level of competition he faces. The problem is that the measure of QoC also suffers from errors in the same way as does Corsi itself. So on one hand while the smoothing operation does tend to correct the data as a whole it can also skew some players results even more.

A similar thing happens with zone starts. Since it should be clear that players starting in the offensive zone have a significant Corsi advantage to those staring in the defensive zone even if they do nothing at all to impact play, factoring in zone starts is perfectly reasonable. However, the formula for adjusting zone starts also creates a fair number of its own anomalies. Players on the two extremes tend to be the worst cases in this regard and because of thsi you see some ridiculous arguments being put forth.

So despite being old I am not ignorant. I can appreciate what these stats are designed to measure and I can even recognize that in the right context they can add to the discussion. My big problem is that the context is usually missing and the stats themsleves are given far to much absolute value.

This is why I responded to the series of posts that used corsi to suggest that Streit is bad defensively. Out of context the numbers quoted really proved little and could just as easily be extremely misleading.

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05-17-2013, 06:14 AM
  #615
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
In its current form it is still not a very useful stat. For example if you have Line A that has a combined 250 shots on goal and another 500 blocked and they scored a grand total of 15 goals as a trio yet you have Line B that has a combined 250 shots and 300 shots blocked and they scored 30 goals, Line A would be seen as superior in spite of the fact that the players on that line have hands of stone and have more of their shots blocked.
In defence of the stat Bryan what those numbers would tell me is that Line A is probably playing the game in the opposition's end a lot more than Line B. As you rightly point out that does not mean that Line A is "better" than Line B but in this case there is something of interest to be derived from the stat.

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05-17-2013, 06:20 AM
  #616
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That is not how QC was derived in the past, and to my knowledge, it is not how it is valuated now.
You are correct. QoC is based on relative +/-. Time on the ice does come into play in the sense that a player's QoC is a weighted average that uses TOI against various opponents as a normalizing component.

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05-17-2013, 07:11 AM
  #617
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hilarious you guys think the sedins need to be moved, you dont trade art ross winners in their prime. esp when the sign at far below market value.
Agree!

Just look what have happened to Sweden at the Worlds after Sedins arrived. Sweden are a totally changed team with this guys around. Before the game against Denmark we were only an excuse of a hockey team and I to be honest hoped Canada would really wopp our arses.

Imagine what they would do to a team like Rangers, Detroit, Anaheim or Tampa for example or even the Oilers (Ignore salary cap)

Sedins are still only 33 and have a couple of years left in the tank if you ask me!

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05-17-2013, 08:49 AM
  #618
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It's really not that complicated.

Corsi is a measure of shots directed at the opposition net minus shots directed at a players' own net when he's on the ice (per 60 minutes of icetime, I believe).

If people try to make it mean anything else, or fail to understand that this is all the information it's giving them, that's their problem. But that doesn't mean there's nothing to be taken from it either. It isn't voodoo.
The problem is the stat is flawed. If you are your teams 3rd line center and you are the best faceoff guy and best defensive center isn't said player going to have a tougher time getting a better corsi as he'll be starting in his zone a lot and playing against other teams top centers?

Now if said player has a real good corsi then you have yourself some backup, but if his corsi is worse than others on the team doesn't mean he's a worse player.

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One player that I'd love to add to our team is Adam McQuaid. As a 3rd pairing RHD he'd be a tough and hard to play against 3rd pairing guy.

I also agree that I'd like to see us sign Streit instead of dealing lots of quality assets for Yandle. IMO Marincin likely ends up as a good puck moving LHD for us in the next couple of years.
Just keep hoping that Bartkowski, Krug and Hamilton play well. Boston will be then forced to move someone, hopefully

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05-17-2013, 08:55 AM
  #619
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Some people are big on stats, some not so much. I'm in the not so much crowd.

Some of the types of stats feels too much like micro management to me.

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05-17-2013, 08:55 AM
  #620
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Ales Hemsky ($1.5 million off) + draft pick for Jay Bouwmeester

Oilers sign UFA

Anton Khudobin (G)
Raffi Torres (LW/RW)
Bryan Bickell (LW/RW)

Kinda what I see happening in the summer.

Nick Schultz traded in a marginal move for a third pairing d-man.

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05-17-2013, 10:33 AM
  #621
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He's only 22yo, and big defensemen like that take time to develop into the stars they eventually become.

I don't know if you could pull him out of BUF without giving up one of the top-4 forwards, but if it's Eberle going the other way, I'd be working hard to get someone like Ott or Stafford included in the package.

Eberle as an asset clearly > Myers. There's a lot of shortcomings with Myers' game and his value right now is at an all-time low. Best time to make the deal for him.
Exactly, right now Myers value is really low and add to the fact he's injured with a broken leg he can be aquired. Maybe use Gagner PRV plus prospects and even next years 1st. High risk but high return if he can find his game again. But you can look at it in a way like usiing a top 3 pick to draft a defenceman. His class BTW had some great D's - Doughty,Bogosian,Pieterangelo,Shenn,Karlsson,Gardi ner,Del Zotto,Sbisa,Carlson,J.SHULTZ,Voynov,Josi,Hamonic,B rodie.

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05-17-2013, 10:40 AM
  #622
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Well the parameters for determining QOC has changed over time has it not? Probably because there was a time that Matt Cooke was "tougher comp" than Malkin.
I don't think the parameters changed, it's just that the way they calculate it requires a ton of events for the numbers to start making sense. Because of that, the QOC numbers are usually worthless until enough data is collected. But over time, things even out and it's actually fairly consistent with what most people who pay attention to who players are on the ice against would tell you. You'd probably get two very similar lists if you were to ask a season ticket holder who didn't own a computer, and a guy who didn't know a thing about hockey but knew where to find QOC data online, to make a list of every Oiler player in order of the quality of opposition they faced.

But it seems like there are still a lot of assumptions made, or maybe I don't quite understand it enough, but I don't put a lot of stock into QOC numbers. Especially when comparing players on different teams. When I said it had an affect on Corsi, I didn't necessarily mean the QOC numbers you find online are directly connected, but it does make sense to me that you're more likely to outshoot a team when you're facing their lesser players.

Quote:
Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
Then there was the time that OnSv% became the stat de jour in an effort to explain Horcoff's horrid +/- numbers.

Corsi was developed to gauge how hard a goalie was working based on the number of shots directed towards him. It really was never meant to gauge the effectiveness of individual skaters.
Viagra was originaly invented to treat high blood pressure, and Play-Doh was developed as a cleaning agent.

Sometimes things have uses beyond what they were intended for. And in the case of hockey and Corsi, it seems pretty reasonable that a goalie's workload is at least in part tied to the quality of the players in front of him (in fact, I'd say they're very much connected).

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05-17-2013, 10:43 AM
  #623
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I thought you weren't suppose to use viagra if you had bad high blood pressure?

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05-17-2013, 11:16 AM
  #624
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The problem is the stat is flawed. If you are your teams 3rd line center and you are the best faceoff guy and best defensive center isn't said player going to have a tougher time getting a better corsi as he'll be starting in his zone a lot and playing against other teams top centers?

Now if said player has a real good corsi then you have yourself some backup, but if his corsi is worse than others on the team doesn't mean he's a worse player.
Yeah, that's why I said Corsi was basically meaningless without zonestart. Even zonestart isn't perfect, because it only deals with faceoff data, but it does give a pretty good indication of how players are being used, and certainly the best measurement available until the NHL starts tracking time of posession.

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05-17-2013, 11:48 AM
  #625
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I think Myers is the perfect scenario for that "bold" "risky" move that MacT was talking about. Trade the 7thOV and some small pieces to Buff for Myers.

Even if Myers plays how he did last season, he is better than more than half of our D... He is bound to be better and buying low now would be beneficial.

I would love a summer of Edmonton trading for Tyler Myers, moving Hemsky for a bottom six forward, signing Horton or Clarkson, trading a pick for Talbot and signing a back up and a couple bottom six guys. I also wouldn't mind seeing MPS packaged for a centre.

Horton-RNH-Eberle
Hall-Gagner-Yakupov
xxx-xxx-Talbot
Smyth-Horcoff-xxx
Brown

Myers-J Schultz
Smid-Petry
N Schultz-Klefbom/Potter/Fistric

Dubby
xxx

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