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Trade Rumours and Proposals Thread Part 17: What does "bold" mean?

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Old
05-17-2013, 01:02 PM
  #626
Master Lok
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Originally Posted by BowDangles View Post
I think Myers is the perfect scenario for that "bold" "risky" move that MacT was talking about. Trade the 7thOV and some small pieces to Buff for Myers.

Even if Myers plays how he did last season, he is better than more than half of our D... He is bound to be better and buying low now would be beneficial.
I can't see any reason why Buffalo would trade Myers.

If he was really that bad in Buffalo this year, and Buffalo is willing to give up on him, then that should be warning bells to any team.

But since Buffalo is going through a rebuilding process now, what's the point in trading away a potential #1 dman signed to a long term contract during a rebuilding process that standings won't matter?

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05-17-2013, 01:18 PM
  #627
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I don't think the parameters changed, it's just that the way they calculate it requires a ton of events for the numbers to start making sense. Because of that, the QOC numbers are usually worthless until enough data is collected. But over time, things even out and it's actually fairly consistent with what most people who pay attention to who players are on the ice against would tell you. You'd probably get two very similar lists if you were to ask a season ticket holder who didn't own a computer, and a guy who didn't know a thing about hockey but knew where to find QOC data online, to make a list of every Oiler player in order of the quality of opposition they faced.

But it seems like there are still a lot of assumptions made, or maybe I don't quite understand it enough, but I don't put a lot of stock into QOC numbers. Especially when comparing players on different teams. When I said it had an affect on Corsi, I didn't necessarily mean the QOC numbers you find online are directly connected, but it does make sense to me that you're more likely to outshoot a team when you're facing their lesser players.



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Sometimes things have uses beyond what they were intended for. And in the case of hockey and Corsi, it seems pretty reasonable that a goalie's workload is at least in part tied to the quality of the players in front of him (in fact, I'd say they're very much connected).
I honestly forget which "advanced stat" it was, but earlier in the year or sometime last year I saw it and for the most part it actually corroborated what common sense tells you. So it actually had SOME use if you prefer looking at graphs instead of watching games.

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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
Yeah, that's why I said Corsi was basically meaningless without zonestart. Even zonestart isn't perfect, because it only deals with faceoff data, but it does give a pretty good indication of how players are being used, and certainly the best measurement available until the NHL starts tracking time of posession.
Possession time, scoring chances for/against, etc. would be the next big step. However I still believe that in a sport that isn't 1 on 1 that a lot of these stats aren't as solid as they would be in a 1 on 1 sport. I could imagine Brendan Morrison's corsi when he played with Bertuzzi and Naslund for example, I bet that it was better than a lot of better players than he was. The biggest issue that I still have is the sheer arrogance that has been shown by some of the people that push the usefulness of these stats as if they somehow think that they are some all knowing fans because of it. Basically if you don't buy what we're selling you are an idiot or you can't comprehend what we're saying. It really isn't rocket science nor is it an exact science, and it is a breath of fresh air to see someone like yourself who obviously enjoys looking at these stats say as much instead of treating it as gospel like I have seen so much of.

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05-17-2013, 01:22 PM
  #628
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In defence of the stat Bryan what those numbers would tell me is that Line A is probably playing the game in the opposition's end a lot more than Line B. As you rightly point out that does not mean that Line A is "better" than Line B but in this case there is something of interest to be derived from the stat.
Having not seen the CCCP teams of the past I have heard that they used to not take a ton of shots and valued puck possession and high quality shots (correct me if I'm wrong). If this were the case and they took 15 high quality shots and 40 total were directed at net and scored say 7 goals while the opposition took 60 shots at the net while 40 were blocked and they were all perimeter shots and were shut out, does the stat reflect what was seen on the ice? While it's a good theory to think that the majority of the time was in the Russians end that might not be the case at all.

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05-17-2013, 01:25 PM
  #629
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Heres a Bold move, saw a Boston thread with St Louis got me thinking doubt he is available though.

7th overall + Gagner + Harti/Musil + ANA 2nd for Seguin + Boychuk

or just

7th overall + Gagner + B Prospect for Seguin

Hall RNH Yakupov
Pajaarvi/FA - Seguin - Eberle

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05-17-2013, 01:28 PM
  #630
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Originally Posted by OnTheBrink View Post
Heres a Bold move, saw a Boston thread with St Louis got me thinking doubt he is available though.

7th overall + Gagner + Harti/Musil + ANA 2nd for Seguin + Boychuk
Didn't PC ask for Eberle when we wanted to draft 1-2?

i doubt that package gets it done.

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05-17-2013, 01:28 PM
  #631
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Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
Just keep hoping that Bartkowski, Krug and Hamilton play well. Boston will be then forced to move someone, hopefully
McQuaid and Fistric on D would give us a whole new element to our team.

Smid-Petry
Klefbom/Fistric-J. Schultz
Streit-McQuaid
Klefbom/Fistric

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05-17-2013, 01:29 PM
  #632
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OnTheBrink View Post
Heres a Bold move, saw a Boston thread with St Louis got me thinking doubt he is available though.

7th overall + Gagner + Harti/Musil + ANA 2nd for Seguin + Boychuk

Hall RNH Yakupov
Pajaarvi/FA - Seguin - Eberle
We'd need to add for sure IMO.

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05-17-2013, 01:33 PM
  #633
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
We'd need to add for sure IMO.
Ok what about just

7th overall + Gagner + Prospect of choice of anyone but Klefbom/Pajaarvi/Maracinin

for

Seguin

What would it take to get Boychuck for Bruins in a separate deal??

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05-17-2013, 01:35 PM
  #634
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
McQuaid and Fistric on D would give us a whole new element to our team.

Smid-Petry
Klefbom/Fistric-J. Schultz
Streit-McQuaid
Klefbom/Fistric
I'd still love to get Boychuk, although he is a lot better in the playoffs.

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05-17-2013, 01:41 PM
  #635
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
We'd need to add for sure IMO.
Ok what about just

7th overall + Gagner + Prospect of choice of anyone but Klefbom/Pajaarvi/Maracinin

for

Seguin

What would it take to get Boychuck for Bruins in a separate deal??

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05-17-2013, 01:41 PM
  #636
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Bold to me would be moving up to 3 or 4 and getting MacKinnon/Barkov, then finding a way to get Darnel Nurse as well. Lord knows we need both badly.

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05-17-2013, 01:42 PM
  #637
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
Having not seen the CCCP teams of the past I have heard that they used to not take a ton of shots and valued puck possession and high quality shots (correct me if I'm wrong). If this were the case and they took 15 high quality shots and 40 total were directed at net and scored say 7 goals while the opposition took 60 shots at the net while 40 were blocked and they were all perimeter shots and were shut out, does the stat reflect what was seen on the ice? While it's a good theory to think that the majority of the time was in the Russians end that might not be the case at all.
Having watched those teams, the puck was almost never in the Russian end. It was all about the five man unit and possession. It was beautiful to watch.

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05-17-2013, 01:45 PM
  #638
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Originally Posted by Master Lok View Post
I can't see any reason why Buffalo would trade Myers.

If he was really that bad in Buffalo this year, and Buffalo is willing to give up on him, then that should be warning bells to any team.

But since Buffalo is going through a rebuilding process now, what's the point in trading away a potential #1 dman signed to a long term contract during a rebuilding process that standings won't matter?
I watched a few Buffalo games this year. He looked terrible. I would be very wary of trading for him and giving up one of the big five in return would be a non-starter.

Buffalo fans are almost unanimous in wanting Ristolainen in the upcoming draft. That should tell us something.

Mark Pysyk looked pretty good. I would prefer to trade for him tbh, but I cant see why the Sabres would be interested.

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05-17-2013, 01:47 PM
  #639
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OnTheBrink View Post
Heres a Bold move, saw a Boston thread with St Louis got me thinking doubt he is available though.

7th overall + Gagner + Harti/Musil + ANA 2nd for Seguin + Boychuk

or just

7th overall + Gagner + B Prospect for Seguin

Hall RNH Yakupov
Pajaarvi/FA - Seguin - Eberle
No interest in Sequin. Boychuk would be a good get though.

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05-17-2013, 02:03 PM
  #640
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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
I don't think the parameters changed, it's just that the way they calculate it requires a ton of events for the numbers to start making sense. Because of that, the QOC numbers are usually worthless until enough data is collected. But over time, things even out and it's actually fairly consistent with what most people who pay attention to who players are on the ice against would tell you. You'd probably get two very similar lists if you were to ask a season ticket holder who didn't own a computer, and a guy who didn't know a thing about hockey but knew where to find QOC data online, to make a list of every Oiler player in order of the quality of opposition they faced.
It absolutely did change. It was originally based on +/- I believe. Hence Cooke= tougher competition than Malkin in the one year I looked at (a few years ago). It was then changed to relcorsi or something like that. Not sure if that corrected the problem or not. The lack of credibility made me lose interest tbh.

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Sometimes things have uses beyond what they were intended for. And in the case of hockey and Corsi, it seems pretty reasonable that a goalie's workload is at least in part tied to the quality of the players in front of him (in fact, I'd say they're very much connected).
The problem remains that they are taking a team generated stat and trying to apply it to individuals. The white noise pretty much muddies anything of meaning. You can use those stats to quantify how team A is doing when compared to team B, but as soon as you try to assign individual values you are lost in a sea of uncontrollable variables and the exercise becomes mired in futility.

I do think that GF/60 and GA/60 are more meaningful/useful than straight +/-, so its not like it is all garbage, but a lot of the other stuff is not useful imo.

Just look back over the last four years or so. The hot new stat of the day comes along, then is shortly forgotten about when a new hot stat comes along. There is no continuity. Then there is the constant rejigging process that starts out with Corsi, which becomes relcorsi which then becomes adj/relcorsi.

Its actually quite amusing.

To me it seems amateur. No scientist or mathematician would ever sign off on what is going on there.

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05-17-2013, 02:11 PM
  #641
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
I honestly forget which "advanced stat" it was, but earlier in the year or sometime last year I saw it and for the most part it actually corroborated what common sense tells you. So it actually had SOME use if you prefer looking at graphs instead of watching games.
To me, this is the biggest issue I have with people trying to completely reject any value of these "advanced stats". So often, people assume that those who use/quote/study these numbers don't watch or understand hockey games.

Of course nobody is going to watch every game for every team, or even pay attention to every player in any one game, but if the numbers agree with what a guy IS able to watch and understand, then why wouldn't you assume they work for other players on other teams?

Because I can almost guarantee you that most people from the "I just watch the games" crowd use stats just as much to determine how good certain players are, they just use different ones, and probably don't watch any more hockey than those who reference things like "Corsi" and "on-ice save percentage".

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05-17-2013, 02:12 PM
  #642
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
I watched a few Buffalo games this year. He looked terrible. I would be very wary of trading for him and giving up one of the big five in return would be a non-starter.

Buffalo fans are almost unanimous in wanting Ristolainen in the upcoming draft. That should tell us something.

Mark Pysyk looked pretty good. I would prefer to trade for him tbh, but I cant see why the Sabres would be interested.
Fair enough. What would you feel is worth giving up to get Myers.

He has a 5.5 million cap hit for.... five? (i can't remember exactly) more years.

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05-17-2013, 02:15 PM
  #643
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Fair enough. What would you feel is worth giving up to get Myers.

He has a 5.5 million cap hit for.... five? (i can't remember exactly) more years.
I dont know. That is the issue. He has a huge contract which if he doesnt regain his form is going to be a boat anchor.

I really couldnt say and I didnt watch enough of him to be too sure one way or the other, but what I did watch was pretty bad. And the Sabres board has pretty much washed their hands of the guy. He has very few if any supporters from what I could gather.

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05-17-2013, 02:21 PM
  #644
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$5.5M for another 6 years.

Their owner probably wasn't too happy last season. Myers was arguably their worst defenseman and was getting paid $22M for the year.

I don't think he's worth the gamble. If he doesn't improve drastically, you've got a Horcoffian boat anchor on the 3rd pairing for half a decade.

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05-17-2013, 02:37 PM
  #645
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No interest in Sequin. Boychuk would be a good get though.
You have to be kidding. Seguin may not be a perfect player, but he'd be an incredible pick up. If the Bruins lost their minds and were ok with Gagner + the 7th +? then the Oilers would have to do that.

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05-17-2013, 02:38 PM
  #646
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Anyone for either B. Richards (assuming bought out) or Leino (assuming bought out)?

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05-17-2013, 02:44 PM
  #647
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Myers has regressed every season since his rookie year.

His issue is mental. He beats himself over mistakes and then his play suffers even more. There is no way I would give up Eberle for him. It is even foolish to consider it. Myers right now he is a basket case. Maybe you can hire him mindset coaches and psychologists and get him right but there is no guarantee.

This could be just another example (in a long line of them) of taking more time with defensive prospects. When a dmen loses his confidence especially over a long period it is really difficult to get them back to their old self, never mind improved.

I don't blame HFOil lusting after him.....you guys are figuring he will get back to his old self (most likely even better) but that his wishful thinking at best.

In real estate they say its better to let speculators guess because that is the easiest way to go broke. The best way to be successful is to give up the first 20% and only come in when all signs point to success (and give up the last 20% because you don't want to get stuck).

I think the same could be said in Myers case. Yes we might get him cheap now but their is no guarantee of a positive return (and huge risk with his cap hit). I rather wait and see if he can regain his form and pay a little more later when you are more assured of what you are getting.

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05-17-2013, 02:49 PM
  #648
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You have to be kidding. Seguin may not be a perfect player, but he'd be an incredible pick up. If the Bruins lost their minds and were ok with Gagner + the 7th +? then the Oilers would have to do that.
I was just going to post yesterday about going for Seguin. This might be the most ideal time to get him. Watching the Bs you can see he is making an impact but just not getting results.

Not sure what the cost would be but Bs might want to she'd some salary to retain some key pieces and have room for Rask's new contract. Rumours also said they were interested in MPS...

7th overall + MPS + ?

For

Seguin

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05-17-2013, 02:53 PM
  #649
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You have to be kidding. Seguin may not be a perfect player, but he'd be an incredible pick up. If the Bruins lost their minds and were ok with Gagner + the 7th +? then the Oilers would have to do that.
Gagner+7th+ for a soft winger?

Big pass.

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05-17-2013, 02:55 PM
  #650
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You have to be kidding. Seguin may not be a perfect player, but he'd be an incredible pick up. If the Bruins lost their minds and were ok with Gagner + the 7th +? then the Oilers would have to do that.
Not kidding. Have you been watching him this year? He is no longer playing with Begeron and Marchand. He has been demoted. Another non-physical perimeter player. We dont need another one of those. Not sure he is an upgrade on Gagner atm tbh.

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