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05-22-2013, 12:18 PM
  #651
aresknights
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I'm shocked Razor isn't upset at the other GM's who don't put their work in and allow London to continue to find players.
I dont know him so I may have this wrong, but the above doesnt seem to fit his agenda, personal feelings, whatever so any evidence, facts, opinion based on facts to the contrary is just dismissed. When a good point is brought up he circles around it, wont acknowledge it, takes the debate in another direction.

Hard work... pays off, Hard work... pays off to quote a movie line

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05-22-2013, 02:24 PM
  #652
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Ares this is for you since you think I don't have any data to back up my opinion. Starting today and others that I have the time since Tigers believes the 3rd-4th-5th round is where a scout like Hunter makes his mark. I am of the opposite belief that the talent isn't really there so this is the first of three examinations of the 08-09-10 OHL drafts. It's not fair to judge 2011 and 2012. I broke down every pick by every team in 08 from 3rd to 5th round which is 60 player. Forgive the formatting. I decided to choose a rough number of 150 GP which is the equivalent of 2+ OHL seasons so that gives them their 17,18,19,20 year old season, some 16 year olds won't play early on due to later pick late bloomers etc.

After 60 picks in 08
16 players played over 150 which is a 23% success rate which is about 1 every 4 or 5 picks. Include Tinordi as well who is the exception coming over when he was 18, so 17. After breaking it down 16-17 players to reach 150 games doesn't even cover 1 player per team. The demand for players is always high but the supply isn't very high.

Most successful team was Owen Sound as far as GP

Tigers want to know why I don't get that upset at other GMs because look no further to this year very little production from the 3rd, 4th and 5th which is the conclusion of the top 100. You will have others that fall through the cracks but if only 14-15 players out of 60 hit how can you accuse other GMs of not doing their job when the talent just isn't there?


Teams Draft Picks GP
Barrie Michael Sgarbossa(3rd) 263 Stud
Dean Pawlaczyk(4th) 94 Never developed-suspensions
Mitch Bennett 111 Never developed

Belleville Scott Howe (4th) 102 Not productive out of the league 09/10
Brandon Stewart(5th) 2 NA

Brampton Cameron Wind(3rd) 291 Very productive OHL player
Branden Eden(3rd) 92+10(Q) Not productive
Phil Lane (4th) 171 Productive player NHL draft pick
Curtis Watson(5th) 0 Never played

Erie Mark Jones(4th) 0 Never played
Kevin Clare(4th) 0 Never played-Michigan
Adam Scully(5th) 0 Never played
Stuart Brownell(5th) 0 Never played

Guelph Shawn Crowley(4th) 0 Never Played
Dylan Wood(5th) 8 Not productive

Kingston Derek Froats(3rd) 130(GP) 14 goals rookie year, never got 14 the rest of his career
Stephan Herrington(4th) 0 Never played
Brock Higgs(5th) 0 Never played-RPI

Kitchener Alex Aleardi(3rd) 321 Very good OHL player
Branden Morris(4th) 108 Stuck around for a bit but only 1 full season in the OHL
Christopher McDougall(5th) 0 Never played

London Jared Knight(3rd) 250 Productive OHL career NHL draft pick
Jarred Tinordi(4th) 111 Productive OHL career NHL draft pick(before he arrived in London)
Chasen Balisy (4th) 0 Never played-WMU
Adam Clendening(5th) 0 Never played-BU

Niagara Mark Visentin(3rd) 166 Stud OHL goalie-NHL 1st rounder
Jesse Beamish(5th) 0 Never played-Dartmouth

Oshawa John Padulo(3rd) 179 Played 3 years, moved to USHL never scored more than 9 goals in a season OHL
Zach Shapiro(4th) 0 Never played

Ottawa Ryan Hanes(3rd) 279 Productive OHL career
Dalton Smith(4th) 179 Productive OHL career, better than Hanes, 2nd round NHL pick 21g year with Ottawa

Owen Sound Chris Brown(3rd) 55 Never produced in the OHL
Keevin Cutting(4th) 327 Very productive OHL career
Daniel Zweep(5th) 221 Stuck around to carve out a role for himself in the OHL

Peterborough Chris Buonomo(3rd) 241 Productive OHL career
Trevor Packard(5th) 0 Never played

Plymouth Jonathan Merrill(3rd) 0 Never played-Michigan, nhl pick
Brendan McCleskey(5th) 0 Never played

Saginaw Dylan Impens(3rd) 0 Never played
Dylan Fritze(3rd) 0 Never played
Matt Braun(4th) 15 Never produced in the OHL
Colin Greeley(4th) 0 Never played
Kyle Flemington(5th) 117 Never produced in the OHL(played over 4 years)

Sarnia Shane Rhyno(4th) 6 Never produced
Mitch Dunning(4th) 37 Never produced, bad injury
Mitch Zion(5th) 0 Never played

Soo Brandon Archibald(4th) 269 Productive career-NHL pick, retired
Michael Borkowski(4th) 0 Never played
Ryan Maclean(5th) 75 Never produced in the OHL
Brendan Childerley(5th) 271 Productive OHL career

St Mikes Majors Joseph Cramarossa(3rd) 235 Productive OHL career, NHL pick
Alex Cord(3rd) 196 Productive OHL career

Sudbury Steven Beyers(3rd) 188 Productive OHL career
Drew Collinson(3rd) 8 Never produced
Jake Cardwell(3rd) 270 Productive OHL career
Michael Capicotto(5th) 0 Never played

Windsor Stephan Johns(3rd) 0 Never played-ND(nhl draft pick)
Steve Gleeson(4th) 37 total games(Q included) Never developed
Derek Van Ness(5th) 0 Never played


Last edited by RayzorIsDull: 05-22-2013 at 02:32 PM.
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05-22-2013, 02:55 PM
  #653
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Originally Posted by RayzorIsDull View Post
Tigers want to know why I don't get that upset at other GMs because look no further to this year very little production from the 3rd, 4th and 5th which is the conclusion of the top 100. You will have others that fall through the cracks but if only 14-15 players out of 60 hit how can you accuse other GMs of not doing their job when the talent just isn't there?
Well, the flaw in your argument is games played. Tyler Biggs single season has more value than alot of 2nd and 3rd round picks.

The argument is that anyone drafted in the 2010 draft would have only played 204 total games. If they missed the first year (which most non top 40 guys do) they won't qualify, your automatically taking a full draft out of the mix. Tell the Colts that guys like Josh MacDonald and Erik Bradford are 'flops'. I guess the Battalion shouldn't use Brendan Miller on the powerplay anymore, he didn't make the team right away. A player whose hurt for a year, hes a flop. Poor Connor Crips and Jake Worrad. Connor Brown didn't make it right away either, he's now a 30 goal scorer.

I found all those names off of 3 teams. I could look at 17 others?

Second, your ignoring the failure to develop. Some teams are poor developers of talent. If you take a kid in the second and don't develop him, that doesn't make it a poor pick, that makes it a poor organization.

You can't look at a draft with a pre-conceived notion, create a formula that fits that notion, and think that it works.

By picking 150 games, you've eliminated any player in the 2010 draft who didn't make the team right off the bat. Not sure if that's strategic or not...

I found those in 10 minutes. Give me more time to think and Im sure ill find other flaws.

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05-22-2013, 02:56 PM
  #654
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To be fair with Gleeson, it's not that he didn't develop, but he didn't work out here. It was a personal thing, last I had heard.

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05-22-2013, 02:58 PM
  #655
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Originally Posted by OHLTG View Post
To be fair with Gleeson, it's not that he didn't develop, but he didn't work out here. It was a personal thing, last I had heard.
Without Context (see, that word again) any list lacks teeth

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05-22-2013, 02:58 PM
  #656
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"Ares this is for you since you think I don't have any data to back up my opinion."
Good research but you're helping to prove my points ive made in this debate regarding tou. You're ignoring, dancing around, dismissing others legitimate and worthwhile opinions.
I know you can ( as could any1) find data to support their view and you've done that. But it's not enough to convince me that others don't work as hard as Mark dies and that $ ain't the be all and end all.

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05-22-2013, 03:00 PM
  #657
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Originally Posted by Tigers1992 View Post
Well, the flaw in your argument is games played. Tyler Biggs single season has more value than alot of 2nd and 3rd round picks.

The second flaw in the argument is that anyone drafted in the 2010 draft would have only played 204 total games. If they missed the first year (which most non top 40 guys do) they won't qualify, your automatically taking a full draft out of the mix. Tell the Colts that guys like Josh MacDonald and Erik Bradford are 'flops'. I guess the Battalion shouldn't use Brendan Miller on the powerplay anymore, he didn't make the team right away. A player whose hurt for a year, hes a flop. Poor Connor Crips and Jake Worrad. Connor Brown didn't make it right away either, he's now a 30 goal scorer.

I found all those names off of 3 teams. I could look at 17 others?

Second, your ignoring the failure to develop. Some teams are poor developers of talent. If you take a kid in the second and don't develop him, that doesn't make it a poor pick, that makes it a poor organization.

You can't look at a draft with a pre-conceived notion, create a formula that fits that notion, and think that it works.

By picking 150 games, you've eliminated any player in the 2010 draft who didn't make the team right off the bat. Not sure if that's strategic or not...

I found those in 10 minutes. Give me more time to think and Im sure ill find other flaws.
So I can do 09-10 in another year. I see you never addressed the 08 findings. What kind of formula should be made 08 3-5 round was poor and their careers are over in the league. Should I go back to 07, 06?

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05-22-2013, 03:04 PM
  #658
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Originally Posted by Tigers1992 View Post
Without Context (see, that word again) any list lacks teeth
I understand what you're saying but could you please avoid quoting OHLTG he's on my ignore.

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05-22-2013, 03:06 PM
  #659
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Originally Posted by aresknights View Post
"Ares this is for you since you think I don't have any data to back up my opinion."
Good research but you're helping to prove my points ive made in this debate regarding tou. You're ignoring, dancing around, dismissing others legitimate and worthwhile opinions.
I know you can ( as could any1) find data to support their view and you've done that. But it's not enough to convince me that others don't work as hard as Mark dies and that $ ain't the be all and end all.
I'm not ignoring anything when out of 60 players taken between the 3rd-5th round in 08 you only have 17 that made any kind of dent how can you say when it's all about hard work when 14-15 teams have failed. So 14-15 other teams fire their GM's and scouts when there wasn't a big impact from players?

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05-22-2013, 03:22 PM
  #660
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So I can do 09-10 in another year. I see you never addressed the 08 findings. What kind of formula should be made 08 3-5 round was poor and their careers are over in the league. Should I go back to 07, 06?
Didnt' comment on my Marner post either...


And you haven't addressed my comments on the Ruperts and Josh Anderson, (that was the 4th time I've mentioned them).

Haven't commented on my statement that the teams that are the most successful, are the guys you always see in the rinks.

(I dont care if you do, we get it, lets just move on to your formula)

There is no way to fix that formula. Games played doesn't speak to impact. It also doesn't speak to the player that they drafted and the value that player brings. One year of one player has more value then three year of another. It also takes away any player who makes the NHL at 18 or 19. Your ignoring teams with poor development models. It also ignores teams with strong existing rosters who don't have room for players. Mississauga didn't have room for Eric Diotati for two years, he made the team last year after 2 attempts. If he was drafted by Erie, maybe he makes it after one year? He all of a sudden fits your system...nothing changed thou....he didn't become better or worse....
Come to think of it, no goalie will ever fit into that formula...they don't play every game do they....

This is after 15 minutes of breaking it down...what happens after you give me an hour?

Your also ignoring, or ignorant to teams goals when drafting. The goal is to get 5-6 players who one day may play a 2 to 5 years with you. Those players generally come within the top 60-80, but also comes somewhere else. Why was this player drafted? What was the purpose? Why did he fail? Was he a strategic pick? Did they trade the pick. 4th rounds are known as the 'risk pick' round. Teams often take risk picks on top US guys, or committed guys from Ontario. Owen Sound did it with Cam Hackett.

I guess Connor Carrick is always a bad pick by Guelph. US program guy for two years, 12th round pick that was traded for two thirds. Guelph's head scout shouldn't have driven to the US to see if he had value or not, he's only played a single year. Your formula doesn't give much credit for Guelph turning the 12th into two 3rds....

You can't become a draft expert without ever following the draft...thats the issue.

Want to know the BEST way to see what teams have good development models? The ones who find value in the draft and the ones who make intelligent decisions. Look at the rosters...if the team is filled with picks of their own, ones that played a year or two at lower levels, worked with the team and now are pieces of a quality hockey program. Thats the easiest way to know. You can't sit on a sideline and nitpick things with, (heres that word again) zero context.


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05-22-2013, 03:48 PM
  #661
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Want to know the BEST way to see what teams have good development models? The ones who find value in the draft and the ones who make intelligent decisions. Look at the rosters...if the team is filled with picks of their own, ones that played a year or two at lower levels, worked with the team and now are pieces of a quality hockey program. Thats the easiest way to know. You can't sit on a sideline and nitpick things with, (heres that word again) zero context.
Agreed. Look at what Windsor did with a couple of guys who, while they weren't huge names, certainly made an impact: Richard Greenop and Saverio Posa. Neither was a high pick, but Greenop developed and got a shot in the pros, while Posa turned out to be a solid leader and one of the more under-rated d-men in the game. I'd mention Locke, but I talked about him prior to this. Another guy - Engelage. He was a late pick, but made some noise in the OHL and got a shot in the pros.

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05-22-2013, 03:49 PM
  #662
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BTW, anyone see what London is asking for in terms of prices for 2014 Memorial Cup? $600-650 for packages.

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05-22-2013, 03:57 PM
  #663
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Originally Posted by OHLTG View Post
Agreed. Look at what Windsor did with a couple of guys who, while they weren't huge names, certainly made an impact: Richard Greenop and Saverio Posa. Neither was a high pick, but Greenop developed and got a shot in the pros, while Posa turned out to be a solid leader and one of the more under-rated d-men in the game. I'd mention Locke, but I talked about him prior to this. Another guy - Engelage. He was a late pick, but made some noise in the OHL and got a shot in the pros.
And thats where it comes back to hard work...

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05-22-2013, 05:46 PM
  #664
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BTW, anyone see what London is asking for in terms of prices for 2014 Memorial Cup? $600-650 for packages.
Pricey..but I wouldn't miss it

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05-22-2013, 05:51 PM
  #665
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Pricey..but I wouldn't miss it
IF Windsor somehow, some way makes it, I'll make a game or two.......or Tiger Jacks

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05-22-2013, 07:58 PM
  #666
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BTW, anyone see what London is asking for in terms of prices for 2014 Memorial Cup? $600-650 for packages.
WOW - that's more than quadruple what I just paid for my package in Saskatoon and next year's tournament can't possibly have the star power that this year's does. It may not all be about the Benjamins for the OHL in London, but they sure aren't leaving any money on the table.


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05-22-2013, 09:58 PM
  #667
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I think Mississauga started at $450 per seat. With season tickets it was closer to $650-700 per seat. The first package wasn't released until closer to the date.

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05-22-2013, 10:35 PM
  #668
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I think Mississauga started at $450 per seat. With season tickets it was closer to $650-700 per seat. The first package wasn't released until closer to the date.
Very true, that was a pricey one as well. At the time I was just happy to have a Memorial Cup tournament that wasn't an overnight trip. Now I'll have the higher prices plus the hotel stay. Guess we have to just chalk this year's tournament up to good value. As I say, I highly doubt next year's tourney will have the same number of elite talent players.

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05-23-2013, 09:31 AM
  #669
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The way it's going, that's probably what will happen. And it'll be dead wrong. The World Juniors can no longer be hosted by a community that supports junior hockey because it's become a high profile event. The Memorial Cup isn't far behind.

Toronto should NEVER host a Memorial Cup and most of Detroit doesn't know junior hockey exists. Keep it in communities that support junior hockey.
This concept works in favour of why London is getting the cup again. You either subscribe to the 'share the wealth idea' which means you include Toronto and Detroit area, or you think it should go to the 'most supporting' local which then means best bid, most fan support (prepaid packages) etc.

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05-23-2013, 09:39 AM
  #670
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I would put some money on that. Monahan will be dealt from Ottawa. If Tom Wilson returns it wouldn't surprise me if he moved.
Now this I would put money on. No way Monahan gets dealt after picking Koneckny...after an embarrasing season it only makes sense that they claw back to respectability and they do so by having those two stars on their team.

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05-23-2013, 09:43 AM
  #671
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Do teams have the money to do this? How do we know Houser wasn't on the radar of other teams and Houser decided on London? It's easy to be the hardest working gm when you have the largest budget. If you ask me the talent in the OHL is dwindling year after year so I don't think it's a matter of working hard. It's a matter of marketing the league better to encourage players that the OHL is a good league.
This is incorrect. More players are drafted now to the NHL from the OHL than ever.

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05-23-2013, 11:26 AM
  #672
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This concept works in favour of why London is getting the cup again. You either subscribe to the 'share the wealth idea' which means you include Toronto and Detroit area, or you think it should go to the 'most supporting' local which then means best bid, most fan support (prepaid packages) etc.
There are 19 other teams in the league. While I believe the US teams could do a great job hosting, Sportsnet and the corporate sponsors probably won't go for it. The remaining 16 could provide the necessary requirements (hotels, ease of transportation, etc.) and all 16 could put together an all-star type team in the next couple of years. All 16 communities have places to go/things to see for visiting fans. What the smaller venues don't have is the ability to guarantee $2 million profit.

Unfortunately for OHL fans, it's about the money and not much else. The WHL has smaller communities hosting and so does the Q. At this point, we can pretty much guarantee that Ottawa will host in 2017 unless they choose not to bid.

I love junior hockey and I love the Memorial Cup tournament, but they're pricing themselves out of the market in the OHL. I can't say I will never again buy a full package, but the chances are slim.

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05-23-2013, 11:40 AM
  #673
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It is getting pricey but Ill drop my $ on the 3 tics Ive secured. But i totally get that not all can do this. It has become a business and just like other sports the tic prices keep rising and will continue
With a deep PO run and a Mem cup season the total for the entire season could be @1600/ seat (give or take a hundred or two) bucks depending on which seats you have and how many PO games are played at home.

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05-23-2013, 11:42 AM
  #674
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IF Windsor somehow, some way makes it, I'll make a game or two.......or Tiger Jacks
Just go on a weekeday, with no Leaf game, and it should be OK lol

Or if the Spits do pull off the miracle PM me and Ill sell you seat for a game or two Reg price but a beer and a burger for commision

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05-23-2013, 11:56 AM
  #675
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There are 19 other teams in the league. While I believe the US teams could do a great job hosting, Sportsnet and the corporate sponsors probably won't go for it. The remaining 16 could provide the necessary requirements (hotels, ease of transportation, etc.) and all 16 could put together an all-star type team in the next couple of years. All 16 communities have places to go/things to see for visiting fans. What the smaller venues don't have is the ability to guarantee $2 million profit.

Unfortunately for OHL fans, it's about the money and not much else. The WHL has smaller communities hosting and so does the Q. At this point, we can pretty much guarantee that Ottawa will host in 2017 unless they choose not to bid.

I love junior hockey and I love the Memorial Cup tournament, but they're pricing themselves out of the market in the OHL. I can't say I will never again buy a full package, but the chances are slim.
This is a terrific post and this is what I have said when the business model has outgrown their target market. Since Branch believes it's imperative that the Memorial Cup host be a contender in their league and counting on a long playoff run. Season tickets + playoff tickets + memorial cup tickets. I bet in most places for a single seat it would cost a fan between $1400-1500 for one year. You can get season tickets to many NHL teams for much less than that. Kind of ridiculous to dole out that kind of money on teenagers playing hockey.

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