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Average PP Rank since 2005-06

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Old
05-23-2013, 12:05 AM
  #1
SlickM32
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Average PP Rank since 2005-06

I ran the average rank over the past few seasons to see if certain teams tended to get more PPs than other teams consistently. AKA, do the Pens ALWAYS get more calls than other teams. The theory is over the long term, which I used 8 seasons, one would expect the average of each team to be around 15 plus or minus 1-2 depending on defensive oriented or offensive teams. The results were very surprising.

Team AVERAGE
Carolina 3.25
Pittsburgh 5.38
Los Angeles 8.63
Vancouver 8.63
San Jose 10.25
Dallas 10.50
Detroit 10.88
Montreal 12.38
Philadelphia 12.50
Toronto 12.63
-------------------------
Columbus 13.75
Phoenix 14.00
Buffalo 14.88
Tampa Bay 15.38
Edmonton 15.63
Winnipeg 15.75
Calgary 16.00
NY Rangers 16.13
--------------------------
Washington 17.13
St. Louis 17.50
Chicago 19.00
Ottawa 19.13
Minnesota 19.25
Nashville 19.63
Anaheim 19.75
NY Islanders 21.88
Colorado 23.00
New Jersey 23.38
Florida 24.00
Boston 24.88

As you can see, the Penguins, Hurricanes, Kings and Canucks consistently get way more PP's relative to their counterparts, while teams like the Sharks, Wings, Stars, Habs, Leafs and Flyers are usually above league average.


Last edited by SlickM32: 05-23-2013 at 12:10 AM.
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Old
05-23-2013, 12:11 AM
  #2
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So are Crosby and Malkin inflating their stats with the disproportionate PP?

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Old
05-23-2013, 12:21 AM
  #3
bambamcam4ever
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Why don't you look at PP opportunities vs. times shorthanded? Or does that not fit your argument? It seems to me that the more aggressive offensive teams draw more penalties while teams that trap get PPs less frequently.

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Old
05-23-2013, 12:24 AM
  #4
SlickM32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bambamcam4ever View Post
Why don't you look at PP opportunities vs. times shorthanded? Or does that not fit your argument? It seems to me that the more aggressive offensive teams draw more penalties while teams that trap get PPs less frequently.
Not necessarily. Washington is a loaded offensive team or has been recently and they are average. Boston led the league in scoring a few years ago and are dead last. Tampa Bay is average and they score the lights out.

Chicago says hi.

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Old
05-23-2013, 12:36 AM
  #5
A1LeafNation
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If I were to rank teams from fastest to slowest, this is pretty much how it would look.

Coincidence?

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Old
05-23-2013, 12:45 AM
  #6
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You need times shorthanded as teams play each other 6 times while they play others only once. Let's say Habs play Bruins, Leafs and Sabres 18 times and those 3 teams are among the most penalized in the league, of course the Habs are going to get an increase in PP opp. during a season.

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05-23-2013, 01:23 AM
  #7
danisonfire
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HabsHockey View Post
You need times shorthanded as teams play each other 6 times while they play others only once. Let's say Habs play Bruins, Leafs and Sabres 18 times and those 3 teams are among the most penalized in the league, of course the Habs are going to get an increase in PP opp. during a season.
This is true, move the teams around by division

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Old
05-23-2013, 01:32 AM
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Vagrant
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Carolina gets a lot of calls for a few reasons. Firstly, we haven't fielded a team that could out muscle a major junior team since the last lockout and secondly, we have a lot of guys that are quick and shifty that tend to get caught up with obstruction. Also, a few guys who embellish. That's a recipe for getting a ton of PP opportunities.

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Old
05-23-2013, 02:47 AM
  #9
mouser
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SlickM32 View Post
I ran the average rank over the past few seasons to see if certain teams tended to get more PPs than other teams consistently. AKA, do the Pens ALWAYS get more calls than other teams. The theory is over the long term, which I used 8 seasons, one would expect the average of each team to be around 15 plus or minus 1-2 depending on defensive oriented or offensive teams. The results were very surprising.
Why would you expect the average to be "15 plus or minus 1-2"?

Your methodology has a very small sample size--only 8 measures per team. Plus you're compounding potentially small differences between the teams by averaging the PP rankings instead of absolute number of PP's.

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Old
05-23-2013, 09:02 AM
  #10
RJ8812
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I've never really thought the Pens get more PPs per game, I just think they get the PPs when they need it most out of no where

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Old
05-23-2013, 09:11 AM
  #11
rajvandam
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SlickM32 View Post
I ran the average rank over the past few seasons to see if certain teams tended to get more PPs than other teams consistently. AKA, do the Pens ALWAYS get more calls than other teams. The theory is over the long term, which I used 8 seasons, one would expect the average of each team to be around 15 plus or minus 1-2 depending on defensive oriented or offensive teams. The results were very surprising.

Team AVERAGE
Carolina 3.25
Pittsburgh 5.38
Los Angeles 8.63
Vancouver 8.63
San Jose 10.25
Dallas 10.50
Detroit 10.88
Montreal 12.38
Philadelphia 12.50
Toronto 12.63
-------------------------
Columbus 13.75
Phoenix 14.00
Buffalo 14.88
Tampa Bay 15.38
Edmonton 15.63
Winnipeg 15.75
Calgary 16.00
NY Rangers 16.13
--------------------------
Washington 17.13
St. Louis 17.50
Chicago 19.00
Ottawa 19.13
Minnesota 19.25
Nashville 19.63
Anaheim 19.75
NY Islanders 21.88
Colorado 23.00
New Jersey 23.38
Florida 24.00
Boston 24.88

As you can see, the Penguins, Hurricanes, Kings and Canucks consistently get way more PP's relative to their counterparts, while teams like the Sharks, Wings, Stars, Habs, Leafs and Flyers are usually above league average.
i'm confused, does carolina average around 3rd place in the league for getting PP chances over the last 8 years? is that what you're trying to say?

and on average the bruins rank almost 25th every year?

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05-23-2013, 09:47 AM
  #12
Razor29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by A1LeafNation View Post
If I were to rank teams from fastest to slowest, this is pretty much how it would look.

Coincidence?
I know the Avs had pylons on defense this year, but you think they are one of the slowest teams in the NHL?


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Old
05-23-2013, 12:05 PM
  #13
SlickM32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mouser View Post
Why would you expect the average to be "15 plus or minus 1-2"?

Your methodology has a very small sample size--only 8 measures per team. Plus you're compounding potentially small differences between the teams by averaging the PP rankings instead of absolute number of PP's.
Because over 8 years, there is a lot of roster turnover. While certain teams are more offensive or defensive, there is no reason why certain teams should ALWAYS be in the top 10 while others are 20+. Over a long period of time this should even out and work towards the middle. It is simple statistics. But since it is only 8 years, there should be some leeway. Maybe it's more like 11-19.

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Old
05-23-2013, 12:08 PM
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SlickM32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rajvandam View Post
i'm confused, does carolina average around 3rd place in the league for getting PP chances over the last 8 years? is that what you're trying to say?

and on average the bruins rank almost 25th every year?
Yeah. So over the past 8 years, Carolina has been on average ranked 3rd in PP opportunities.

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Old
05-23-2013, 12:14 PM
  #15
XO
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Detroit Ref Wings

Oh well, successful teams will always be accused of cheating and this and that. It's like that in all sports.

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05-23-2013, 12:25 PM
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Easier to draw penalties by diving...something the top 4 are excellent at

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05-23-2013, 12:48 PM
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Man you're getting the excuses going pretty early for the ECF, don't you think?

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Old
05-23-2013, 01:26 PM
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Averaging the ranks is a pretty big mistake, because it doesn't represent the relative PP opportunities they get. Boston doesn't get penalized 8 times as much as Carolina. Over 8 years, the data sample is large enough that we can assume that most teams are bunched around the average, with very small differences between them. Averaging ranks amplifies any small differences (reprensentative of trends, of course) there might be between teams. There is a good chance that no team is an outlier in term of PP opportunities over that period of time.

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05-23-2013, 01:29 PM
  #19
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Originally Posted by Simerc View Post
Averaging the ranks is a pretty big mistake, because it doesn't represent the relative PP opportunities they get. Boston doesn't get penalized 8 times as much as Carolina. Over 8 years, the data sample is large enough that we can assume that most teams are bunched around the average, with very small differences between them. Averaging ranks amplifies any small differences (reprensentative of trends, of course) there might be between teams. There is a good chance that no team is an outlier in term of PP opportunities over that period of time.
Look at PP time vs PK time this year alone, Boston is a huge outlier. In 8 years, Boston has been in the bottom five 7 times.

If you try to explain that away with normal variations in statistics you will fail badly.

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Old
05-23-2013, 02:00 PM
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I've made similar posts (focused more on total opportunities and home/road splits rather than ranking though) in the past in response to the "bettman favours the hawks" crap so I thought I'd respond. Generally ignored like this thread may be too by many.

I do have somewhat of an explanation for the Hawks ranking. They've been one of the better puck possession teams of the past few years and without going any deeper you'd expect them to have more PPOs than they do. The refs aren't robots though, so they have no choice but to let things go. If they did they'd be calling 4 and 5 penalties a period. The same idea as teams that interfere a lot getting away with more interference than teams that regularly don't for example. The "interfering team" would have more total interference penalties but they'd get away with a ton more. And the percentage of interferences called would probably be lower for them too. It's simplistic, but somewhat true. Just not sure I'm expressing it properly.

Play style is important here too obviously and explains more of it, but that's a longer post. In summary there are logical arguments for why the Hawks get so few opportunities relatively. There are few for the "refs favour the Hawks" however. I guess it doesn't really explain some of the teams high on the list though.

At the same time the Hawks do generally have one of the better PP/SH differentials. That actually might be a better indicator here. I'd suspect it would better correlate with success than the current list.

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05-23-2013, 02:09 PM
  #21
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No surprise Boston is at the bottom

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05-23-2013, 10:44 PM
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Why use ranks as your analysis when powerplay opportunities are a quantitative variable?

Using the same reference frame, I looked at the average number of powerplays per game, average times shorthanded per game, and the difference. Teams below are ranked in descending order:

CAR 4.61 3.99 0.63
SJS 4.27 3.69 0.58
NJD 3.83 3.48 0.34
LAK 4.39 4.14 0.25
DET 4.31 4.08 0.23
TOR 4.22 4.04 0.18
TBL 4.13 3.96 0.17
BUF 4.17 4.02 0.15
MIN 3.99 3.85 0.13
DAL 4.27 4.17 0.10
PHX 4.22 4.14 0.08
PIT 4.44 4.36 0.08
NYR 4.11 4.03 0.07
NSH 4.02 3.97 0.05
ATL/WPG 4.13 4.17 -0.04
VAN 4.34 4.41 -0.07
STL 4.10 4.19 -0.09
MTL 4.25 4.36 -0.11
CGY 4.12 4.23 -0.11
EDM 4.13 4.25 -0.11
CHI 3.98 4.11 -0.13
COL 3.87 4.00 -0.13
CBJ 4.20 4.37 -0.17
OTT 4.03 4.27 -0.24
NYI 3.91 4.17 -0.26
WSH 4.09 4.36 -0.27
BOS 3.74 4.02 -0.28
PHI 4.21 4.49 -0.29
FLA 3.77 4.11 -0.33
ANA 4.02 4.42 -0.41

At a quick glance, 3 of the 4 lowest teams are teams I consider to be very physical over that time period. On the other hand, it's hard to notice a trend amongst the leaders. Maybe surprising to some people, but Pittsburgh in closer to the middle.


Last edited by Dacks: 05-23-2013 at 10:52 PM.
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Old
05-23-2013, 10:59 PM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dacks View Post
Why use ranks as your analysis when powerplay opportunities are a quantitative variable?

Using the same reference frame, I looked at the average number of powerplays per game, average times shorthanded per game, and the difference. Teams below are ranked in descending order:

CAR 4.61 3.99 0.63
SJS 4.27 3.69 0.58
NJD 3.83 3.48 0.34
LAK 4.39 4.14 0.25
DET 4.31 4.08 0.23
TOR 4.22 4.04 0.18
TBL 4.13 3.96 0.17
BUF 4.17 4.02 0.15
MIN 3.99 3.85 0.13
DAL 4.27 4.17 0.10
PHX 4.22 4.14 0.08
PIT 4.44 4.36 0.08
NYR 4.11 4.03 0.07
NSH 4.02 3.97 0.05
ATL/WPG 4.13 4.17 -0.04
VAN 4.34 4.41 -0.07
STL 4.10 4.19 -0.09
MTL 4.25 4.36 -0.11
CGY 4.12 4.23 -0.11
EDM 4.13 4.25 -0.11
CHI 3.98 4.11 -0.13
COL 3.87 4.00 -0.13
CBJ 4.20 4.37 -0.17
OTT 4.03 4.27 -0.24
NYI 3.91 4.17 -0.26
WSH 4.09 4.36 -0.27
BOS 3.74 4.02 -0.28
PHI 4.21 4.49 -0.29
FLA 3.77 4.11 -0.33
ANA 4.02 4.42 -0.41

At a quick glance, 3 of the 4 lowest teams are teams I consider to be very physical over that time period. On the other hand, it's hard to notice a trend amongst the leaders. Maybe surprising to some people, but Pittsburgh in closer to the middle.
Holy Carps, MTL is in the negative.

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Old
05-23-2013, 11:03 PM
  #24
Dacks
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Originally Posted by HabsHockey View Post
Holy Carps, MTL is in the negative.
MTL by year:

2006 5.65 5.87 -0.22
2007 4.61 5.11 -0.50
2008 4.56 4.17 0.39
2009 4.56 4.51 0.05
2010 3.18 3.79 -0.61
2011 3.54 3.99 -0.45
2012 3.67 3.84 -0.17
2013 4.23 3.60 0.63

They led the league this year in differential.

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Old
05-23-2013, 11:06 PM
  #25
Novak Djokovic
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I'm sorry, but OP, your method sucks.

You need to look at PPs AND times shorthanded, like the poster above did.

I'm really surprised that I've never seen a "Carolina gets refs help!" thread on this board.

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