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Is Henrik Lundqvist An HOFer?

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05-23-2013, 05:19 PM
  #201
Hardyvan123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
I don't know, a 45-30 record in shootouts and that adds something to his resume? It is just another regular season win..........or loss. There were times when Jussi Jokinen was nearly automatic on the shootout. But other than that this is the only time that I can think of the shootout really adding to any talk of career value. Every player does it now, and every player has times when they do well or not. Maybe a player like Bure or Mario would be guys that would score 8/10 times and that would make a difference. But until someone comes around where they are a lock cinch to score, or make a trio of saves, then it won't add anything to a player's season.
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Originally Posted by GuineaPig View Post
Puck prospectus calculates the influence of shootout performance into GVT, so one can get an idea of what kind of impact a player can have. In 2011/12 for example, Kovalchuk contributed 5.2 goals above replacement, and the highest goalie, Varlamov, contributed 5.1. Definitely not negligible, even if year-to-year variance will naturally result in peaks and troughs. They estimate over the past two seasons (pro-rated for 82 games in 2012/13's case) Lundqvist contributed four goals above replacement. Not a huge amount, but a sizeable chunk (~7-8%) of his overall performance.

In larger samples the effects can be largely obscured, but in individual seasons players can really augment (or badly harm) their team's record in the shootout.
The 1st thing that came to mind is that SO performance might be a more important factor for a goalie than say face off % for a center in terms of value.

Maybe not the most important part of the picture but something that is probably overlooked by most, like it was pointed out by GuineaPig.

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05-23-2013, 09:13 PM
  #202
VanIslander
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Lundqvist is one of a slew of veteran NHLers that need a cup or a few more years of dominance to justify their Hall chances.

Yeah, I'm talking about Marleau, Miller, Sedins and Alfredsson (good luck on that one).

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05-26-2013, 12:22 AM
  #203
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Originally Posted by quoipourquoi View Post
Well then, where do you think he fits into all of this? Four teams since 2005, always between .917 and .926. Cumulative is higher than Lundqvist. Doesn't have much of a playoff resume, but he's looked strong when he gets to play. Top-five in save percentage four times to Lundqvist's three. Does the fact that Florida is hard on a goalie's Win/Loss record (subsequently leaving him with few Vezina votes) preclude him from Lundqvist's company, or are we saying that 11 extra games per year is the important factor?
Well, for starters, yes, sample size is important. 21% more games played by Lundqvist. Second, the difference is only .0005 (.9210 to .9205). Third, there are team factors at play with Vokoun. Post-lockout in Nashville, his .920 was just 2 points better than the rest of the team (almost entirely Chris Mason), and he was just 5 points better than the field in Florida over 4 years. In a one-season sample in Florida he outperformed the field by 11 points and this year Fleury (the team's actual starter) by 3 points.

I didn't include him in that list because he was more of a transient compared to the others who could be mainly associated with one team, but if I had, he'd have been a cumulative +5 since the lockout. Good, not great.

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Perhaps I am, but if you believe Julien distorts a save percentage by more than .007 or .008 to the point that someone else possibly should be carrying Tim Thomas' Vezina trophies, then I must ask, who would it have been? Particularly in 2009, when most agreed that his closest competition was a Hitchcock goalie?
I'm not necessarily saying anyone should be. It could very well be that a great goalie was made uber-great by his coach.


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That's fair. Personally, I'm already there with Rask, especially after 2012-13.
The truth about the Boston situation is likely somewhere between each of our positions. Referring back to the mini-chart I posted earlier, Thomas is a +9 post-lockout counting Rask, which is being as uncharitable as possible. As charitable as possible (eliminating Rask entirely) he's a +22. I only need to be about 20% right about this for his "vs. backups" score to fall below Lundqvist, who otherwise laps the post-lockout field by a considerable margin. However, I do think +9 is an unfair assessment overall, and Thomas is the only goalie who could throw a wrench into my assertion that Henrink is the "best goalie of the last 8 years".

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That was a charge made during the Top-40 project, and based upon his performance with an increased workload in 2005-06 and the 2011 playoffs, I don't believe there to be a reason to question his ability to play more than he did and at a very high level. And if you want to look at a larger sample of GP to get away from the one point save percentage difference over eight years, you can always check their career playoff statistics.
No doubt Thomas has done more in the playoffs. Just be careful not to assign too much value to 60-game samples considering they are full of 6-7 game blocks against the same team. For example, Three of Thomas' first 4 career series were against the Habs and the other was against the Canes. In Lundqvist's first 6 series, only the Thrashers were easy. He had the Devils twice, Penguins, 2007 Sabres, and 2009 Caps.

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Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
I don't know, a 45-30 record in shootouts and that adds something to his resume?
How could it not? Winning hockey games is the most important thing, and the shootout is a very important piece of that now, whether you like it or not (I don't). He's the best shootout goalie of this generation, so of course it adds something.

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05-26-2013, 02:36 AM
  #204
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When was the last time a goalie has made it to the HoF without winning a cup? Obviously I think Lundqvist will be playing till his 40s, but this is just hypothetically speaking that he never wins a cup.

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05-26-2013, 02:51 AM
  #205
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Originally Posted by Bluesman91 View Post
When was the last time a goalie has made it to the HoF without winning a cup? Obviously I think Lundqvist will be playing till his 40s, but this is just hypothetically speaking that he never wins a cup.
Well he ain't going to win one with the Rangers that's for sure

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05-26-2013, 03:56 AM
  #206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VanIslander View Post
Lundqvist is one of a slew of veteran NHLers that need a cup or a few more years of dominance to justify their Hall chances.

Yeah, I'm talking about Marleau, Miller, Sedins and Alfredsson (good luck on that one).
Yeah, before Sundin got into HoF there were Sundin vs Alfredssons comparisons for HoF chances. These comparisons dragged down Sundin as they were not that dissimilar in achievements and Alfredsson had a slightly weaker case. Now with Sundin in the HoF it speaks to Alfredsson's advantage. who knows, I think Alfredsson will get into the HoF eventually.

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05-26-2013, 08:06 AM
  #207
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluesman91 View Post
When was the last time a goalie has made it to the HoF without winning a cup? Obviously I think Lundqvist will be playing till his 40s, but this is just hypothetically speaking that he never wins a cup.
By my count, 4 goaltenders are in the HHOF who never won the Cup: Roy Worters, Chuck Rayner, Eddie Giacomin, Vladislav Tretiak. Tony Esposito technically won a Cup as a 3rd stringer in Montreal, but I can't see that adding anything to his HHOF case. Interestingly, Rayner and Giacomin both spent the bulk of their careers as Rangers.

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05-26-2013, 09:14 AM
  #208
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Another ridiculously good showing from Lundqvist that saddles him with a loss...he was spectacular in these playoffs.

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05-26-2013, 09:20 AM
  #209
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Interestingly, Rayner and Giacomin both spent the bulk of their careers as Rangers.
And none of the Rangers SC winning goalies Richter, Chabot, Kerr or Aitkenhead aren´t there. Three of them might have a strong case if goalies would treaded as other skaters.

I was going to say not yet for Lundqvist, but maybe I am too harsh for todays goalies.


Last edited by Sanf: 05-26-2013 at 09:34 AM. Reason: One sentence deleted. Didn´t really represent well what i meant
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05-26-2013, 10:10 AM
  #210
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
By my count, 4 goaltenders are in the HHOF who never won the Cup: Roy Worters, Chuck Rayner, Eddie Giacomin, Vladislav Tretiak. Tony Esposito technically won a Cup as a 3rd stringer in Montreal, but I can't see that adding anything to his HHOF case. Interestingly, Rayner and Giacomin both spent the bulk of their careers as Rangers.
Well, I can't say I'm surprised.

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05-26-2013, 06:48 PM
  #211
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Originally Posted by Mike Farkas View Post
Another ridiculously good showing from Lundqvist that saddles him with a loss...he was spectacular in these playoffs.
Seriously.. the Rangers were missing some key guys (Clowe and Staal) but the guys they had just weren't scoring at all.

Lundqvist loses with a 2.14GAA and a .934 save percentage haha.. and 2 of his 5 wins were shutouts.

So far Lundqvist is enjoying the Cujo treatment from his team.

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05-26-2013, 11:37 PM
  #212
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
Seriously.. the Rangers were missing some key guys (Clowe and Staal) but the guys they had just weren't scoring at all.

Lundqvist loses with a 2.14GAA and a .934 save percentage haha.. and 2 of his 5 wins were shutouts.

So far Lundqvist is enjoying the Cujo treatment from his team.
He's getting worse than the Cujo treatment. Cujo at least had some star power, names, offensive weapons, whatever you wanna call them.

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05-27-2013, 12:32 AM
  #213
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Originally Posted by VanIslander View Post
Lundqvist is one of a slew of veteran NHLers that need a cup or a few more years of dominance to justify their Hall chances.

Yeah, I'm talking about Marleau, Miller, Sedins and Alfredsson (good luck on that one).
I think that a lack of a SC in a 30 team league isn't prohibitive to getting into the HHOF, it's not like not getting a SC in a 6 team league.

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05-27-2013, 10:48 AM
  #214
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
He's getting worse than the Cujo treatment. Cujo at least had some star power, names, offensive weapons, whatever you wanna call them.
Yeah but none of them could score. haha

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05-27-2013, 04:44 PM
  #215
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
How could it not? Winning hockey games is the most important thing, and the shootout is a very important piece of that now, whether you like it or not (I don't). He's the best shootout goalie of this generation, so of course it adds something.
But is a 45-30 record something that is so gaudy that we have to even bring it up? He has a .600 winning percentage in the shootout. That's above average, but we aren't talking about an above average goalie here. These are numbers you come to expect from a star goalie. It doesn't add much for me at all. A win is a win.

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05-27-2013, 04:55 PM
  #216
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For now, we have to see Lundqvist do more in the postseason. Yeah, I know, he did pretty good against Boston in general, but if a goalie is playing 15 years in the NHL there has to be a time when a true HHOFer can take his team on his back - even just once. It doesn't have to be the Cup, but even a Cup final. If J-S Giguere took his team on his back in 2003 - with minimal support - you'd like to see the truly best ones do it. Other than that, Lundqvist would have to just continue to rack up Vezina nominations. Because as of right now the proof you need to see how hard goalies are judged is in just how many people still scoff at the idea of Luongo ever getting in. He has two 2nd team all-stars, an Olympic Gold, A world Cup, finishing as high as 2nd in Hart trophy voting, took his team to Game 7 of the final in a Smythe worthy run and most people on here STILL don't think he will even finish his career as a HHOFer. So where does that leave Lundqvist?

Goalies are judged tough, but to the HHOF's credit, this is one position they have stayed consistent with.

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05-27-2013, 05:00 PM
  #217
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Overtime

Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
But is a 45-30 record something that is so gaudy that we have to even bring it up? He has a .600 winning percentage in the shootout. That's above average, but we aren't talking about an above average goalie here. These are numbers you come to expect from a star goalie. It doesn't add much for me at all. A win is a win.
Should be viewed in the context of regular season and playoff overtime results. From memory the regular season OT record of Henrik Lundqvist is around/slightly over .500 while the playoff overtime record is app 3-13.

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05-27-2013, 05:15 PM
  #218
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Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
For now, we have to see Lundqvist do more in the postseason. Yeah, I know, he did pretty good against Boston in general, but if a goalie is playing 15 years in the NHL there has to be a time when a true HHOFer can take his team on his back - even just once. It doesn't have to be the Cup, but even a Cup final. If J-S Giguere took his team on his back in 2003 - with minimal support - you'd like to see the truly best ones do it. Other than that, Lundqvist would have to just continue to rack up Vezina nominations. Because as of right now the proof you need to see how hard goalies are judged is in just how many people still scoff at the idea of Luongo ever getting in. He has two 2nd team all-stars, an Olympic Gold, A world Cup, finishing as high as 2nd in Hart trophy voting, took his team to Game 7 of the final in a Smythe worthy run and most people on here STILL don't think he will even finish his career as a HHOFer. So where does that leave Lundqvist?

Goalies are judged tough, but to the HHOF's credit, this is one position they have stayed consistent with.
I think most rangers can agree he had his team on his back last year and it took them to the ECF. 1.82 GAA over 20 games is pretty good.

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05-27-2013, 05:21 PM
  #219
Mike Farkas
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Lundqvist's playoff overtime log (provided I didn't err...might be worth a once over by someone)

[date] [game #] [vs/@ opp] (series) -> [NYR goals scored in regulation] / [time of OT goal]* (W/L) (((* - power play goals noted)))

4/29/07 Game 3 vs. Buffalo (down 2-0) -> 1 regulation goal / 36:43 of OT (W)
5/4/07 Game 5 @ Buffalo (tied 2-2) -> 1 regulation goal / 4:39 of OT [PPG] (L)
-
4/13/08 Game 3 vs. New Jersey (up 2-0) -> 3 regulation goals / 6:01 of OT (L)
5/4/08 Game 5 @ Pittsburgh (down 3-1) -> 2 regulation goals / 7:10 of OT (L)
-
4/13/11 Game 1 @ Washington (tied 0-0) -> 1 regulation goal / 18:24 of OT (L)
4/20/11 Game 4 vs. Washington (down 2-1) -> 3 regulation goals / 12:36 of OT (L)
-
4/14/12 Game 2 vs. Ottawa (up 1-0) -> 2 regulation goals / 1:17 of OT (L)
4/18/12 Game 4 @ Ottawa (up 2-1) -> 2 regulation goals / 2:42 of OT (L)
5/2/12 Game 3 @ Washington (tied 1-1) -> 1 regulation goal / 54:41 of OT (W)
5/7/12 Game 5 vs. Washington (tied 2-2) -> 2 regulation goals / 1:35 of OT (W)
5/25/12 Game 6 @ New Jersey (down 3-2) -> 2 regulation goals / 1:03 of OT (L)
-
5/4/13 Game 2 @ Washington (down 1-0) -> 0 regulation goals / 8:00 of OT [PPG] (L)
5/10/13 Game 5 @ Washington (tied 2-2) -> 1 regulation goal / 9:24 of OT (L)
5/16/13 Game 1 @ Boston (tied 0-0) -> 2 regulation goals / 15:40 of OT (L)
5/23/13 Game 4 vs. Boston (down 3-0) -> 3 regulation goals / 7:03 of OT (W)

I got him at 4-11 in playoff OT.

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05-27-2013, 05:41 PM
  #220
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NHL Active Goalies Playoff Overtime

NHL stats:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=30993

Active goalies playoff overtime going into 2013. Lundqvist is 2-8 plus 1-3 in 2013 yielding 3-11.

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05-27-2013, 06:38 PM
  #221
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Hmm...

http://www.hockey-reference.com/boxs...704290NYR.html
http://www.hockey-reference.com/boxs...205020WSH.html
http://www.hockey-reference.com/boxs...205070NYR.html
http://www.hockey-reference.com/boxs...305230NYR.html

Those are Lundqvist's four OT wins? I must be making such an obvious mistake that I can't see it...

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05-27-2013, 07:10 PM
  #222
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4-11

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Originally Posted by Mike Farkas View Post
4-11 is correct. Old manual verification. The NHL data is off one win for Lundqvist. Rest of the goalies not verified.

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05-28-2013, 06:10 PM
  #223
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
But is a 45-30 record something that is so gaudy that we have to even bring it up? He has a .600 winning percentage in the shootout. That's above average, but we aren't talking about an above average goalie here. These are numbers you come to expect from a star goalie. It doesn't add much for me at all. A win is a win.
But he's 0-1 in shootouts with the season on the line.

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05-28-2013, 06:19 PM
  #224
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I've also got Lundqvist at 4-11 in NHL playoff overtime...
http://hockeygoalies.org/bio/lundqvist.html (under NHL Game Logs)

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05-29-2013, 12:58 PM
  #225
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
But is a 45-30 record something that is so gaudy that we have to even bring it up? He has a .600 winning percentage in the shootout. That's above average, but we aren't talking about an above average goalie here. These are numbers you come to expect from a star goalie. It doesn't add much for me at all. A win is a win.
First, win percentage is not the stat we should look at before calling a goalie the best shootout goalie of the generation. That is save percentage in the shootout. Unless you think he has control over his team scoring goals.

Second, who says that his numbers have to be "gaudy" for them to be considered a part of his legacy? There has been a large enough sample of shootouts by now to prove that goalies are not ubiquitous robots in one on one situations and some of them are better at it than others. His numbers are the best, whether you think they're gaudy or not.

Third, who gets to say what is "gaudy"? You may think that his numbers aren't very far ahead of the pack but that could either be because you don't understand standard deviation, or it could actually mean that save percentages tend to clump together in the shootout, in which case the definition of gaudy for those purposes just needs to be revisited.

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