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2013 Draft: Stop winnin for MacKinnon, or Do Meth for Seth?

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05-22-2013, 04:01 PM
  #976
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I'm new here so have no idea how accurate people are on here. But, a lot of the Lightning fans are sure they will draft Nichushkin at 3rd overall with the news today. So that will leave us with Drouin or Barkov. Both of which I'm happy with

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05-22-2013, 04:13 PM
  #977
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Generally the individual fanbases have the best insight as to what's going on with that specific team. But with that said, I wouldn't say Nich over Drouin is a slam dunk by any means. This is probably the most unpredictable draft we've seen since 2006 where nobody seemed to know for sure who was going to go #3 after Jordan Staal.

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05-22-2013, 04:21 PM
  #978
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If I were in Tampa's position, I don't know who I would take. The thought of getting a St. Louis clone and having St. Louis mentor him before retiring is incredibly enticing.

And remember, a lot can change between the draft. For all we know, Nich is just posturing so he'll get drafted high and will return to the KHL anyways.

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05-22-2013, 04:29 PM
  #979
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Originally Posted by Highway to Cap Hell View Post
If I were in Tampa's position, I don't know who I would take. The thought of getting a St. Louis clone and having St. Louis mentor him before retiring is incredibly enticing.

And remember, a lot can change between the draft. For all we know, Nich is just posturing so he'll get drafted high and will return to the KHL anyways.
Right, the combine can change a lot of things as well as the interviews. Barkov might slip due to his injury and therefore inactivity, Drouin might slip due to size and lack of strength, Nichushkin will rise as his measurables are solidified and his strength is shown. Anyone could kill the interviews and rise up teams boards.

Is going to be an interesting week.

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05-22-2013, 04:34 PM
  #980
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Right, the combine can change a lot of things as well as the interviews. Barkov might slip due to his injury and therefore inactivity, Drouin might slip due to size and lack of strength, Nichushkin will rise as his measurables are solidified and his strength is shown. Anyone could kill the interviews and rise up teams boards.

Is going to be an interesting week.
Also, and I think this is a big factor, is Nich's hockey sense. We love to draft guys whose biggest strength is hockey sense (Faulk, Murphy, Boychuk and Sutter for example).

His hockey sense is said to be his caveat. His fatal flaw. Now, personally, I think that if it were that big of an issue and Nichushkin was the next coming of Artuykhin (sic), he wouldn't be rated as one of the top talents in this draft.

But it could be a factor in us drafting him (as well as the Russian thing).

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05-23-2013, 03:08 AM
  #981
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Some reports I read early suggested he wasn't an accurate shooter, and I agree about his sense. I think both play out when watching him play. It's not his style to be a playmaker or an outside shooter. He drives his wing hard and tries to cut to the net. He tries to bang. He's a power winger, simple game. This wouldn't be a bad thing, we need a guy like that. He just doesn't look like a savior I fear some of us are looking for this pick to be. Power forward north south winger, 20/20 a season maybe? If he excels maybe 30/20-30 at his best? Still a useful peice for us no doubt.

I am afraid of the arthukhin possibility I brought up earlier. He played exactly the same game. Long reach with outside speed. Taking the puck to the middle into traffic with that long stick doesn't work much in the NHL, it's why you drive wide instead. This guy has little dangle. He's a Russian primeau on the wing in many ways. It could work, it could completely fail.

I'm sure barkov is what jr would prefer, a little more consistent with a higher ceiling if he learns to skate. Jr picking between a smallish dangly winger from the Q or a Russian winger? Strange territory. I assume it'll be one or the other, and I'm surprised he'd feel good about either.

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05-23-2013, 06:50 AM
  #982
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Am I one of the very few that would take in this order:

Barkov / Nichushkin / Monahan / Lindholm / Drouin

Something about Drouin scares me, risk / reward type deal, also playing with MacKinnon, I would have liked to see him on Monahans team or somewhere else to see what he can do.

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05-23-2013, 07:05 AM
  #983
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Nichushkin seems like a bigger version of Erik Cole to me.

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05-23-2013, 04:40 PM
  #984
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Reading the Tampa Bay boards guy on there said Tampa bay beat writer was on a podcast called Oilers now. So I listened to it and seems like Lightning would love to draft Nichushkin. I'll post the link. Fast forward to about 3/4 of the way down since they don't talk about it until then.

http://www.630ched.com/podcasts/episodes.aspx?PID=2254

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05-23-2013, 08:39 PM
  #985
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My question is, if Tampa picks Nichushkin, does Nashville take Drouin or Barkov?

Personally I would rather have Barkov fall to us but I won't be upset with Drouin either.

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05-23-2013, 09:27 PM
  #986
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The thing about Nichushkin is that his hands down low are incredible. The way he can elevate the puck in short spaces is jaw dropping good. The speed is obviously there, but what impresses me the most about him that Artyuhkin didn't have is balance on his skates. That was the biggest complaint about Artyuhkin in virtually every facet of his game was his inability to keep puck control and his balance. He was an effective checking line player because of his size and speed but the other elements of the game were elusive to him. Nichushkin takes body contact and maintains the puck with the best of them, which is why the Malkin comparisons keep drawing up. I don't think his offensive creativity is up there with Malkin's but that is lofty praise for any junior age player.

Too much is being made of his skating wide and going to the front of the net. That isn't his entire game. I realize that has been coming up a lot because it is a reoccurring element in his highlight packages, but he did it there because it worked and there were no players in the WJC that could make him try something different. I wouldn't use a tactic that he employed with a high degree of success against him unless he refused to change it when it became ineffective, which he never had to do. What it did emphasize was his edge work and balance. The first half of that play is speed in getting the defenders hips locked up, the second half is dipping the inside shoulder and riding the man to the front of the net with the puck at stick's length. Pure bull strength in the lower body. If you are faster as well as stronger, that is a ridiculously high percentage opportunity. The fact that he abused Ryan Murphy with that move, who is perhaps the best skating defender under 20 in the world at the time, speaks to the upside of his skating ability. The fact that he abused Seth Jones with it speaks to his strength advantages. You literally couldn't have picked two better defenders to burn with that move in different ways to get a more accurate picture of what Nichushkin offers.

I agree that his game is primarily north and south, but I wouldn't make that out to be a particularly bad thing or something that will limit his upside. Quite the opposite actually. Andrew Ladd is the same kind of player and he has done pretty well. I really value players who are fast and have the length to shield the puck to maintain puck possession. Imaging putting this kid beside Jordan Staal and what kind of nightmares that would create for the opposing defense trying to break up a cycle.

I won't get into projecting potential points because there are a litany of factors involved that make his upside interesting and one of them exists in his potential to be a net front presence on the powerplay where he would undoubtedly be productive if his style plays out up here. There is a little Tavares to the way he scores his goals even if his shot isn't as imposing. He has that innate ability to get lost, plant his feet, and bang home rebounds. He's tough to move already and he still has his baby deer frame. It's going to be hell to pay when he puts on his man strength. Where you see a lot of guys get impatient around the goal mouth and put anything and everything they can on the goalie, he has the size to be patient if that makes sense. He can widen his stance, take a hard push from a defender, and still make a decisive move with the puck to beat the goaltender. That is the trait that power forwards are made of in the NHL.

Russian flair with sprinkles of North American style petulance. As rare of a combination as you will find.

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05-23-2013, 09:57 PM
  #987
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OK, so yeah, with the recent developments what with Nichushkin and Edmonton's GM flat out coming out and saying they want to draft a centerman at #7, here's what I see happening:

1 Colorado Avalanche - D Seth Jones - Portland WHL
had before - D Seth Jones

2 Florida Panthers - C Nathan MacKinnon - Halifax, QMJHL
Had Before - C Nathan MacKinnon

3 Tampa Bay Lightning - LW Valeri Nichushkin - Chelybinsk, KHL
Had Before - LW Jonathan Drouin
Bolts staff is sky high on this kid, rumored to have him #1 on their draft board. Can't say I blame them, the idea of a guy playing that kind of game is hard to pass up. Still wouldn't be shocked to see Drouin picked here, but anyone other then Nich or Drouin would be a HUGE surprise.

4 Nashville Predators - LW Jonathan Drouin - Halifax, QMJHL
Had Before - C Aleksander Barkov
Now it gets interesting. I honestly think this is a 50/50. Preds need a franchise center that they have never had, but enough to pass up the guy that's arguably the #2 prospect in the draft behind Jones?

5 Carolina Hurricanes - C Aleksander Barkov - Tappara, FEL
Had Before - C Sean Monahan
Simply put, the Canes take whichever of the big 5 is left and are happy about it. Barkov's future at center if he ends up as a Cane is the only thing in question as his versatility should and will allow him to play any of the 3 forward positions. Good chance he could slot in next to Jordan Staal if he's there at #5 this year.

6 Calgary Flames - C Sean Monahan - Ottawa, OHL
Was Before - LW Valeri Nichushkin
Honestly not sure why I had Nich here before other then BPA, figured the Flames wouldn't pass on him to be their next Iggy. Instead, they get to add whichever of Monahan and Lindholm they want to put with Baertschi.

7 Edmonton Oilers - C Elias Lindholm - Brynas, SEL
Was Before - D Darnell Nurse
The Oilers say they're preferring to go center here, with that being what's likely available. Should be rather obvious though given that Lindholm or Monahan are the last of the top tier prospects that should be left on the board at this point, with Nich likely to end up in either Tampa or Carolina. They need D more then any other team in the league, including our own, which is the only thing that makes this an interesting development.

8 Buffalo Sabres - D Darnell Nurse - Sault Ste Marie, OHL
Had Before - D Rasmus Ristolainen
Reasoning still stands, different dman is BPA here

9 New Jersey Devils - D Rasmus Ristolainen - TPS Turku, FEL
Had Before - C Elias Lindholm
BPA BPA BPA

10 Dallas Stars - C Max Domi - London, OHL
Had Before - C Max Domi

11 Philadelphia Flyers - D Nikita Zadorov - London, OHL
Had Before - D Nikita Zadorov

12 Phoenix Coyotes - RW Hunter Shinkaruk - Medicine Hat, WHL
Had Before - RW Hunter Shinkaruk

13 Winnipeg Jets - C/LW Bo Horvat - London, OHL
Had Before - RW Anthony Mantha
After a decent but not outstanding regular season, Horvat has come alive in the OHL playoffs and especially the Memorial Cup. With the rumors that Burmi wants out big time, Horvat fills both long term need and BPA

14 Columbus Blue Jackets - RW Anthony Mantha - Val d'Or, QMJHL
Had Before - D Ryan Pulock
BPA

15 and 16 have been decided, so I'll do those too:
15 New York Islanders - RW/C Curtis Lazar - Edmonton, WHL
The potentially explosive Lazar fits the bill nicely here for the Isles. They're pretty well stocked at most positions going forward, but he can slot as either a solid #2 centerman going forward should Strome not work out or as a possible high end winger. There are a ton of routes I could see the Brooklyn boys taking here though.
Alternative Picks - W Zykov, C Wennberg, D Pulock, W Gauthier

16 Buffalo Sabres (via MIN) - W Valentin Zykov - Baie-Comeau, QMJHL
Sabres are going into a rebuild mode and are slowly trying to stock up at most all positions, arguably aside from in net where they already have Enroth. After taking a dman in Nurse as BPA at #8, they take the best forward available at this point in the draft in Zykov.
Alternative Picks - C Wennberg, RW Hartman, W Rychel, RW Nastasiuk


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05-24-2013, 02:02 PM
  #988
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Some reports I read early suggested he wasn't an accurate shooter, and I agree about his sense. I think both play out when watching him play. It's not his style to be a playmaker or an outside shooter. He drives his wing hard and tries to cut to the net. He tries to bang. He's a power winger, simple game. This wouldn't be a bad thing, we need a guy like that. He just doesn't look like a savior I fear some of us are looking for this pick to be. Power forward north south winger, 20/20 a season maybe? If he excels maybe 30/20-30 at his best? Still a useful peice for us no doubt.

I am afraid of the arthukhin possibility I brought up earlier. He played exactly the same game. Long reach with outside speed. Taking the puck to the middle into traffic with that long stick doesn't work much in the NHL, it's why you drive wide instead. This guy has little dangle. He's a Russian primeau on the wing in many ways. It could work, it could completely fail.

I'm sure barkov is what jr would prefer, a little more consistent with a higher ceiling if he learns to skate. Jr picking between a smallish dangly winger from the Q or a Russian winger? Strange territory. I assume it'll be one or the other, and I'm surprised he'd feel good about either.
Ok--Primeau was the best power forward the Canes ever had, in the dead puck era as well and a 30/30 guy is the best year Cole ever had. I can't tell--but was your argument for or against picking him?

I don't really have an opinion of Nich one way or the other over Barkov or Drouin, but the Canes are sorely lacking players that can play the power game--and they may have a chance at one of the best to come along in a few years. Both Staal (E.) and Skinner have flourished when placed on a line with a spacemaker like Cole--so while he may never become Malkin, he has a good chance of being Rick Nash or the 2006 Erik Cole--before Orpik.

All that said, after the season that was, at least the discussion is over taking players with upside instead of another reclamation project.

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05-24-2013, 02:16 PM
  #989
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It really is kind of pointless to argue about who the best pick is to be honest. It's almost certain that Jones/MacKinnon/Nichushkin/Barkov/Drouin are going to go top 5 in some order, and the Canes will/should select the one that falls to them, taking the choice out of their hands.

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05-24-2013, 02:22 PM
  #990
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I agree with Vagrant. The reason the "drive wide: cut to the net" is found so often in Nichushkin's portfolio is because no one (either in the WJC or in the KHL) can stop it.

The fact that he has the strength and speed to have a single move in a men's professional League at 18 is amazing, IMO. NHL caliber defenders know its coming, and they can't prevent it.

Ironically, Nichushkin seems like the safest pick in the draft to me. Barring injury, his size and speed will make him an amazing third liner (which is what we want), and he brings that panache, that upside of an impact forward. I really would like to draft him.

Sucks, because I'll be on a plane heading home from Las Vegas when it occurs. I get to sweat it out wondering who we drafted.


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05-24-2013, 02:24 PM
  #991
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Man, if you'd suggested 2 weeks ago that Barkov would drop to us I'd have called you nuts.

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05-24-2013, 02:28 PM
  #992
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It really is kind of pointless to argue about who the best pick is to be honest. It's almost certain that Jones/MacKinnon/Nichushkin/Barkov/Drouin are going to go top 5 in some order, and the Canes will/should select the one that falls to them, taking the choice out of their hands.
OR....or....they could select Ryan Hartman.

After all:


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05-24-2013, 03:06 PM
  #993
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I'm still guessing it will be Monahan as he seems like a Rutherford kind of guy.

Hard working, two-way center with some offensive capability and a smart player with character. Maybe not as much upside, but less risk and good all around and should be able to transition to the NHL quickly. Kind of sounds like a bigger, more talented, better offensive version of Brandon Sutter.

I also expect that one of the Barkov, Druin, Nichushkin drops to a pick beyond #5. Look at last year, TSN/McKenzie had Forsberg at #3 and he was picked #11. Teravainen was ranked #7 and was picked #18. 2010 had Gormley and Fowler ranked #4 and #5 and they went #14 and #13 respectively.

Based solely upon what I am reading, it seems that there are a lot of very good players in this draft, but none of them seem to be head and shoulders above the rest.

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05-24-2013, 03:30 PM
  #994
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Originally Posted by Highway to Cap Hell View Post
OR....or....they could select Ryan Hartman.

After all:

I suppose this means Ben Lovejoy is going to be JR's big free agent acquisition?

I could see Monahan being the pick but not over Barkov and probably not over Nichushkin. I'm on board with the Drouin might slip train if any of them do, but I think this will be one of those years where the top 5 goes top 5 in some order.

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05-24-2013, 04:15 PM
  #995
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It really is kind of pointless to argue about who the best pick is to be honest. It's almost certain that Jones/MacKinnon/Nichushkin/Barkov/Drouin are going to go top 5 in some order, and the Canes will/should select the one that falls to them, taking the choice out of their hands.
I could see an outside chance of Nashville taking Lindholm, but pretty much dead on.

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05-24-2013, 04:17 PM
  #996
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I'm still guessing it will be Monahan as he seems like a Rutherford kind of guy.

Hard working, two-way center with some offensive capability and a smart player with character. Maybe not as much upside, but less risk and good all around and should be able to transition to the NHL quickly. Kind of sounds like a bigger, more talented, better offensive version of Brandon Sutter.

I also expect that one of the Barkov, Druin, Nichushkin drops to a pick beyond #5. Look at last year, TSN/McKenzie had Forsberg at #3 and he was picked #11. Teravainen was ranked #7 and was picked #18. 2010 had Gormley and Fowler ranked #4 and #5 and they went #14 and #13 respectively.

Based solely upon what I am reading, it seems that there are a lot of very good players in this draft, but none of them seem to be head and shoulders above the rest.
I was looking through some draft history the past couple days, and it certainly seems that way. Regardless of how things shake out, I think it's safe to say we're gonna get a pretty special player at 5.

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05-24-2013, 04:46 PM
  #997
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Man, if you'd suggested 2 weeks ago that Barkov would drop to us I'd have called you nuts.
But I did and nobody said anything!

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05-25-2013, 10:00 PM
  #998
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Really like Lindholm for our pick. Great all-around game and projects to be the high-end playmaker this team needs. Pretty telling that a sniper in Semin turned into an assist machine on our 1st line and that nobody on our 2nd line cracked 10% shooting pct.

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05-28-2013, 10:40 AM
  #999
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Still think I would rather take Nichushkin, but if TBL takes him, maybe Drouin falls to us.

This top 10 is hard to pick from.

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05-28-2013, 10:53 AM
  #1000
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Still think I would rather take Nichushkin, but if TBL takes him, maybe Drouin falls to us.

This top 10 is hard to pick from.
This is basically what I'm expecting. If Tampa takes Drouin then Nichushkin will be our pick (I don't see the Preds taking him). If Tampa takes Nichushkin we end up with whichever of Drouin and Barkov is still on the board.

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